Unless you've been hiding under a rock, you've likely been bombarded by bitcoin-related headlines over the past couple of weeks. Not only are various talking heads already suggesting a "bitcoin bubble" in the wake of last week's highly anticipated bitcoin futures launch, but several media outlets have attributed the recently dulled appetite for gold and other commodities to the soaring popularity of the volatile cryptocurrency.

The December 2017 cover of Modern Trader magazine, for instance, asks, "Will Bitcoin Eclipse Gold?" Likewise, from the front page of the Dec. 14 issue of The Wall Street Journal: "Bitcoin Fever Spreads to Commodity Traders," with the corresponding article noting that the number of commodity-based hedge fund closures surpassed launches for the first time ever this year, looking at data since 2000. At the same time, more than 120 cryptocurrency funds were launched in 2017, compared to fewer than 25 in 2016, per Autonomous Next data.

I found it also fascinating that a senior exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst at Bloomberg predicted that, "If a bitcoin ETF came out today, it would break a record," raking in $1 billion in no time. Coincidentally, the current recordholder for "First ETF to Bring in $1B in 3 Days" is a gold ETF: the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), per ETF.com.

But whether bitcoin is solely to blame for gold's recent drop -- and one could argue that the stronger dollar and tax reform optimism have also played a part -- is neither here nor there. What fascinates me is the recent spike in the cost of "crash protection" on the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which invests in the shares of gold miners.

Specifically, the 10-day moving average of GDX's put/call skew on 5% out-of-the-money (OOTM) options – which compares implied volatility (IV) readings for OOTM puts against OOTM calls -- has skyrocketed by more than 20% over the past 20 sessions, and stands at its highest point since December 2014. This indicates traders are bidding up the odds of an extended decline in GDX shares, which fell more than 8% from their Nov. 28 intraday high of $23.17 to their Dec. 12 intraday low of $21.27 – marking territory not charted since July for the fund.

Since 2006, there have been just eight surges of that magnitude in this barometer, including the one that flashed just last week. Three of the signals sounded before the March 2009 bottom, and the other four prior to last week's occurred between September 2013 and November 2014. While I'd like to offer actionable insight into how GDX might perform after this most recent surge in OOTM put demand, the historical price action after such signals is mixed, not to mention very heavily skewed by the November 2008 signal, after which GDX skyrocketed more than 79% in six months, as the throes of the financial crisis sparked a run on "safe haven," tangible assets like gold.

Perhaps the most "concrete" conclusion to be drawn from the data: GDX tends to be more volatile than usual in the intermediate term, following quick-and-dirty spikes in its OOTM put/call skew, as measured by a bigger-than-usual standard deviation of returns following these signals.

So, while the sample size is small, if recent history repeats, GDX could see some volatility over the next six months -- and possibly break out of its 2017 confinement, with the $21-$22 area emerging as support this year, and advances stopping short in the $24-$26 range. In the even shorter term, though, it's worth noting that January and February tend to be the best months of the year for the ETF, which has averaged monthly returns of 2.7% and 5.3%, respectively, since inception. With that in mind, here are some levels on our near-term radar:

• $20.92 = YTD breakeven
• $22.02 = a 50% Fib retracement of GDX's rally from 2016 lows to 2016 highs
• $24.22 = a 38.2% Fib retracement of the aforementioned 2016 rally
• $24.94 = double the 2016 closing low
• $25.05 = 0.8x the 2016 closing high
• $25.10 = 20% YTD gain
• $26.00 = where GDX closed prior to the October 2016 bear gap

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Monday notched its 70th record high in 2017, tying 1995 for the most in one year. And with a couple weeks left before we flip the calendar -- not to mention the index taking off in early trading today, ahead of an expected vote on tax reform -- there's a good chance this year will go down in history for the blue-chip index. Further, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are both eyeing their ninth straight monthly gains -- a feat not accomplished in decades for the stock market.

2017 Could Be One for the Dow Record Books

Should the DJIA tag another all-time closing high today, it will mark the 71st of the year for the index -- a new record. Meanwhile, the SPX just notched its 62nd record close of 2017 on Monday, and if the broad-market barometer can score three more before January, it will tie the most in one year since 1964 -- the second-best year on record. The current record can't mathematically be defeated before 2018, with 77 all-time closing highs accomplished in 1995.

Dow, SPX Eye Longest Monthly Win Streak in Decades

There have been just five nine-month winning streaks for the Dow, the last ending in November 1958 -- before Alaska and Hawaii were U.S. states, and prior to Fidel Castro taking power in Cuba. The SPX, meanwhile, has enjoyed just four nine-month winning streaks ever, the last ending in April 1983 -- two months before Sally Ride boarded the Challenger, and preceding Michael Jackson's Thriller video.

Stocks Could Rally Into 2018, If History Repeats

Historically, strength tends to beget strength for both the Dow and SPX. One month after a nine-month winning streak, the DJIA was up 2.53%, on average -- more than four times its average anytime one-month gain of 0.63%. Three months and one year after, the Dow's average return was also roughly twice its anytime return, and the index was higher 100% of the time.

The S&P 500 Index was up 75% of the time at each checkpoint after a nine-month winning streak. One month later, the S&P was higher by 2.65%, on average, compared to its average anytime one-month return of 0.68%, looking at data since 1935. It's the same story looking all the way to one year out, with the SPX higher by 16.55%, on average, after a nine-month win streak, compared to 8.32% anytime.

It's been a good second half of the year for automakers Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and General Motors Company (NYSE:GM). Respectively, the stocks sport year-to-date gains of 4.4% and 22%, with the latter hitting a record peak of $46.76 in late October. Brokerage firm RBC expects this trend to continue, weighing in bullishly on both F and GM this morning.

RBC Bumps Up Ford Stock Price Target

Ford stock was last seen trading at $12.74, up 0.6% for the day, after RBC analysts upped their price target to $14 from $13. Most other brokerage firms are still bearish on the shares, though. Of the 16 covering the equity, just two say it's worth buying. Also, F shares are now trading above their average 12-month price target of $12.56. So, an extended uptrend from the security could result in more bullish attention.

As for options activity, sentiment has been quite bullish on the auto stock. Ford has a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.38 across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This not only shows call buying has more than tripled put buying, the ratio ranks in the bullish 89th annual percentile. 

Analyst Expects Another Big Year From General Motors

RBC upgraded GM stock to "outperform" from "sector perform," and lifted its price target to $52 from $51. The firm's analyst expects another strong fundamental performance from the company in 2018, including a stronger-than-expected rise in profits. Shares of General Motors last checked in at $42.66, gaining 1.2% so far today.

Even though the security is up 22.4% in 2017, the majority of analysts still have "hold" ratings in place. Plus, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for GM comes in at 1.25, showing that put open interest actually outweighs call open interest among near-term contracts. Moreover, this reading ranks in the 84th annual percentile. It would appear there's plenty of skepticism also surrounding General Motors, suggesting more upside could be in store, from a contrarian perspective.

As markets await news on the tax reform vote, two stocks have already ascended to fresh record highs this morning: streaming content provider Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU) and online automotive stock Cars.com Inc (NYSE:CARS) are both moving after hedge funds reported stakes. Below, we will take a closer look at ROKU and CARS stocks.

ROKU Stock Could Have Room to Run

Morgan Stanley reported a 5.1% passive stake in Roku Inc, as of Dec. 7, per a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing. The news initially sent ROKU stock to a new record high of $57.75 out of the gate, but the shares have since turned 2.2% lower to trade at $54.88. ROKU stock has been on a tear since its initial public offering (IPO) on Oct. 3, and is now trading at roughly four times the IPO price of $14. The shares have rallied more than 40% just in the past month, with help from Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA).

Considering the shares sport a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in overbought territory, today's breather isn't all that surprising. Still, the tech stock could have room to run in the form of a short squeeze. Short interest increased by 61% during the last reporting period, to 7.70 million shares, a new all-time high. This represents a whopping 49% of ROKU's total available float.

Cars.com Stock Drives to New Record High

Nomura initiated coverage on Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCMP) with a "buy" rating and a $43 price target -- representing expected upside of 150% to the stock's current perch at $17.10, up 2.1% so far today. The brokerage firm said the current valuation doesn't price in SCMP's Niemann-Pick disease type C1 (NPC1) treatment -- an extremely rare metabolic disorder -- and other products in the pipeline.

Today's positive price action echoes the stock's recent trajectory, with SCMP stock up nearly 34% so far in December -- on track for its best monthly performance since November 2016. In fact, since skimming lows near $9.45 in late October and early November, the shares have surged more than 82%, and topped out at a two-year high of $17.70 on Dec. 7.

This notable milestone came after Bloomberg reported the Maryland-based biotech was exploring strategic options, including a potential sale of the business. Securities and Exchange (SEC) filings released in subsequent sessions revealed passive stakes from Linden Capital and ING Groep NV -- which created bigger tailwinds for the drug stock.

Against this backdrop, options traders have been extremely call-skewed in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 3,784 calls in the past 10 sessions, compared to 149 puts. According to Trade-Alert, most of this action occurred at the March 20 call.

While it's possible some of this activity is a result of traditional options bulls betting on a bigger breakout, it's also likely short sellers are using the out-of-the-money calls to hedge against any additional upside risk. Since mid-October, short interest on SCMP is up almost 10% to 4.69 million shares -- the most since early July.

And considering it would take more than six sessions to cover these bearish bets at the average pace of trading, some of the recent upside could be the result of a short squeeze. Nevertheless, SCMP stock could be at risk of a near-term retreat, considering its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) was last seen at 87.17, deep into overbought territory.

Shares of video game maker Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA) have struggled following last month's controversial release of "Star Wars: Battlefront II". Today, analysts are chiming in, with Cowen and Company issuing a price-target cut to $104 from $106. The brokerage firm also lowered its profit forecast for the 2018 fiscal year, citing enough negative impact "to more than offset any strength elsewhere in the model." Below, we will take a closer look at EA stock.

In reaction to today's bearish brokerage note, EA stock is currently down 0.2% to trade at $108.21. After touching a record high of $122.79 on Aug. 31, the security has shed 11% -- breaching long-term support atop its 200-day moving average in the process, which appears to be on the verge of forming a death cross with the 50-day trendline. Nevertheless, EA found its footing atop the 50-week moving average, which has served as a floor since May 2016. Despite these recent struggles, the equity is still up 37% year-to-date.

Options traders have been betting on a bounce for EA shares. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), EA boasts a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 5.36, which ranks 4 percentage points from an annual high. This indicates calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

Digging deeper, the February 110 call is home to the largest open interest increase during the past 10 days, with over 26,000 contracts exchanged. Data from the major options exchanges confirms significant buy-to-open activity here. This indicates options traders are undeterred by the video game stock's recent struggles, and expect it to resume its quest for record highs in the new year.

The shares of Altaba Inc (NASDAQ:AABA) -- formerly Yahoo -- touched a record peak of $73.25 about a month ago. Since then, the tech concern has pulled back to its 40-day moving average -- a technical signal that's preceded gains for AABA stock in the past. Below, we take a closer look at Altaba shares to see if they could be flashing "buy," and examine how options traders are speculating on the equity.

The security, which began trading under AABA at $54 in mid-June, recently came within one standard deviation of its 40-day trendline, after a lengthy stint above the moving average. In the past, similar pullbacks have generated positive one-month returns 78% of the time, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Further, AABA stock has averaged a one-month gain of 4.47% after signals.

Since the aforementioned June 19 "debut" at $54, the security has advanced a healthy 33%, and was last seen trading at $71.81 -- up 1.3% on the day. Another 4.47% bump from current levels would place Altaba shares around $75, in record-high territory.

Markets will be closed next Monday, Dec. 25, for the Christmas holiday. While the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has historically outperformed during Christmas week -- in what is typically known as a "Santa Claus rally" -- we had Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White run the numbers to see which SPX stocks do well in the holiday-shortened week. Here's a closer look at real estate names Welltower Inc (NYSE:HCN) and HCP, Inc. (NYSE:HCP), which have been two of the best stocks to own during Christmas week.

Oversold HCN Could Bounce Next Week

Over the past 10  years, HCN has averaged a Christmas week return of 1.71% -- and boasts a 100% win rate. This would be a much-needed shot in the arm for a stock that's down almost 19% from its June 23 annual high of $78.17. In fact, HCN shares earlier hit a 12-month low of $63.26 after Jefferies cut its price target on the stock to $66 from $73, but were last seen trading at $63.63.

Amid this slide, HCN's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 28.30 -- in oversold territory. In other words, the stock may be due for a short-term bounce just in time for Christmas.

Despite a 2Q Slump, HCP Tends to Do Well at Christmastime

HCP shares have returned an average gain of 2.06% over the last 10 Christmas weeks, and have finished in positive territory 90% of the time. The stock has also struggled in the latter half of 2017, down 24% from its June 26 annual high of $33.67. Plus, a recent rally off its late-October 52-week low of $25.09 was halted near $27.10 region -- home to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of HCP's second-quarter slump.

At last check, HCP stock was seen trading down 0.4% at $25.73, after Jefferies lowered its price target on the real estate investment trust (REIT) to $27 from $28. The shares have yet to reach "oversold" status, though, with their 14-day RSI most recently seen at 33.93.

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) stock is up 5.1% to trade at $23.36, a new annual high, after the social media stock received an upgrade to "overweight" from "neutral" at J.P. Morgan Securities, as well as a price-target hike to $27 from $20 -- in territory not charted since late 2015. The analysts believe Twitter is on track for continued double-digit average user growth in 2018, and called it one of their top ideas in 2018. In addition, Summit Redstone initiated coverage on TWTR stock with a "buy" rating and a price target of $26.

It's been an excellent year for TWTR stock, which has gained 43% in 2017, and 38% in the fourth quarter alone. The shares' rising 10-week moving average has guided the micro-blogging stock higher since early September.

Options traders have preferred Twitter calls over puts by a much bigger-than-usual margin amid the stock's recent uptrend. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), TWTR's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 8.22 ranks 2 percentage points from an annual high. 

Drug stocks are in focus this morning, including Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX). Both CELG and VRTX received price-target boosts from Morgan Stanley this morning, but one outlook was decidedly more bullish than the other. Here's a look at how CELG and VRTX are reacting today.

CELG Stock Extends Recovery from Post-Earnings Lows

While Morgan Stanley hiked its price target on CELG stock to $103 from $97, the new target still represents a discount to the equity's current price. Specifically, the shares of CELG are up 0.2% at $109.62 at last check. The pharma stock has had a rough year, suffering two big bear gaps in October -- but CELG is up 16% from its Oct. 26 intraday low, and its 20-day moving average is now on the verge of a bullish cross with its 40-day counterpart.

Ahead of today's price-target raise, options traders were leaning toward the bears' camp on Celgene stock. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows CELG with a 50-day put/call volume ratio in the 73rd percentile of its annual range. This suggests puts have been bought at a faster-than-usual clip relative to calls during the past 10 weeks.

Options Traders Are Put-Heavy on VRTX

Morgan Stanley hiked its price target on VRTX stock to $193 from $190 -- this time, a significant increase to the stock's most recent trading price. At last check, Vertex Pharma stock was up 0.2% at $146.15, and 98% higher year-to-date. VRTX is attempting to close the day above resistance at its 40-day moving average, located at $145.90, which has kept a tight lid on the shares for nearly two months.

Options traders have been favoring puts on Vertex stock. The drug concern sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.21, which ranks higher than 93% of all other readings from the past year. This indicates that short-term options traders have rarely been more put-heavy on Vertex Pharma stock in the last 52 weeks. However, given that the stock has roughly doubled in value since the end of 2016, it's possible that some shareholders have purchased VRTX put options simply to lock in paper profits or hedge against a short-term downturn.

The fall of the retail sector in recent years has been well covered on Wall Street, but many of these stocks have found new life heading into the holiday season. Take for example the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), which has gained 14.5% since its Nov. 8 bottom. Three names that have also rallied during this time are Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), Gap Inc (NYSE:GPS), and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO). And analysts are counting on even more upside from shares of NKE, GPS, and AEO.

Nike Stock Flirts with Fresh Highs

Nike stock has been no stranger to bullish analyst attention, as the company prepares to report earnings after the close on Thursday. Telsey Advisory is the latest brokerage firm to weigh in, this morning boosting its price target to $68 from $61 -- representing territory not seen in roughly two years.

NKE shares have added 0.3% today to trade at $64.96 -- an earlier touched a 52-week high of $65.08 -- meaning they've now added close to 29% since their Oct. 12 low of $50.35. Despite this jump, options traders at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have seemingly been bearish. The security has a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.20 across the exchanges, ranking in the 82nd percentile -- meaning put buying has been unusually popular.

GPS Shares Stay Hot

Shares of Gap are up 2% to trade at $34.27, thanks to a $4 price-target increase at Jefferies to $45. This is just more of the same for the equity, which has jumped over 49% in the past six months and hit a two-year high of $34.41 last week.

But options traders have continued to flock to put options. At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, GPS has an elevated 10-day put/call volume ratio of 6.79, which sits just 1 percentage point from a 12-month peak. Plus, its Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 4.13 shows put open interest quadruples call open interest among near-term contracts. An unwinding of this pessimism could spark even more upside for the retail stock.

Jefferies Sees Higher Highs for AEO Stock

Jefferies also weighed in on American Eagle stock, lifting its price target to $22 from $20. The shares have rallied 3.1% in response to trade at $17.97, tapping a fresh annual high in the process. The security's strong second half of the year has it set to end 2017 in positive territory.

Of course, there are still plenty of skeptics out there. AEO has a SOIR of 1.79, ranking only 5 percentage points from a 12-month put-skewed extreme. Plus, almost 12% of its float is dedicated to short interest, and would take four days to cover, going by average daily trading volumes.

Bitcoin futures began trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange today, sending shares of CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) up 0.5% to trade at $151.77. This comes one week after the launch of the cryptocurrency's futures on the Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) -- and follows yesterday's news that TD Ameritrade (AMTD) will allow its customers to trade bitcoin futures on the CBOE. As the digital currency's platform grows, here's a closer look at the sentiment surrounding CME stock.

Taking a quick step back, today's positive price action for the shares is just more of the same. Year-to-date, CME shares are up 31.5% -- pacing toward their best annual return since 2013. And while the equity pulled back after hitting a record high of $155.29 on Dec. 5 as bitcoin bulls took profits, it found a foothold near $150, which is double its 2013 highs.

Not surprisingly, most analysts are upbeat toward CME, with 70% of those covering the stock maintaining a "buy" or better rating. However, the average 12-month price target of $154.82 stands at a slim 2% premium to current trading levels, pointing to the potential for price-target hikes to come down the pike -- and possibly create even bigger tailwinds for CME.

Plus, short sellers appear to be in cover mode, which has likely helped lift the shares to all-time highs. Since mid-March, short interest has dropped 47.2% to 4.18 million shares. It would take shorts more than three days to cover the remaining bearish bets, suggesting there's still some sideline cash available.

Doing a quick check on other stocks with bitcoin exposure, AMTD is trading up 1.4% today, while Overstock.com (OSTK) has surged 10.3% and Longfin (LFIN) has gapped 66.4% higher -- with the latter two fresh off new highs. CBOE, meanwhile, is down 0.2%.