Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Nov 28, 2016 at 2:36 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Trader Content
With the holiday shopping season in full swing, retail stocks are front and center on Wall Street. Like the broader equities market, the retail sector has rallied since the U.S. presidential election earlier this month, leaving some to wonder how much more room these stocks have to run. Looking at a chart of the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) -- the retail sector's exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- we notice seven key levels that could play pivotal roles in the weeks ahead. 

As mentioned above, XRT has moved higher in a hurry since the election, gaining close to 11% to trade at $46.21. This comes after the ETF found support near the $41 mark, which sits just above its rising 60-month -- or 5-year -- moving average, and represents 80% of XRT's 2015 high. This area, along with the round $40 mark, has acted as support for XRT in recent years.

Meanwhile, the ETF's post-election rally helped it push past previous highs from March and August in the $46 range, as it closed Friday at $46.64. XRT hit an annual high of $47.14 during the session, which is less than 50 cents off of its 10% year-to-date gain level, positioned at $47.56. It's also worth noting that peak call open interest resides at the front-month December 47 strike. 

Along with the two areas mentioned above, there are five other levels to watch for the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) going forward: 

  • $43.50 - 2x the ETF's 2011 low
  • $44.40 - 6x the ETF's 2009 low
  • $45.14 - 1.1x XRT's November closing low
  • $46.06 - 1.2x XRT's 2016 closing low
  • $46.13 - 0.9x the ETF's all-time high


Monthly chart of XRT Nov 28

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Published on Nov 28, 2016 at 3:36 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Expectational Analysis

The death of former Cuban president Fidel Castro has had some interesting effects on the market today, as has an early tweet from President-elect Donald Trump. Specifically, Trump said "If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate deal." Among the stocks moving in response are airline interests Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) and JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU), which are both in the red this afternoon, with rising oil prices also lending pressure. Notably, both of these stocks have also seen significant increases in short interest during the most recent reporting period, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

DAL has shed 1% at $48.75 today, widening its year-to-date deficit to nearly 4%. The stock has spent much of this month flying up the charts, but its run was cut short in the $49 region, which has caused trouble for the shares numerous times over the past year. Notably, a breather for DAL may have been overdue, considering the stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 85 was deep into overbought territory.

During two most recent reporting periods, short interest on DAL has shot up by more than 61%. Even so, just 2.2% of the equity's available float is currently shorted, meaning selling pressure could continue to pile on. A round of downbeat attention from the brokerage bunch could also weigh on the shares. After all, eight out of 11 analysts rate DAL a "buy" or better, without a single "sell" on the books.

Turning to the options pits, DAL calls have been popular of late, with more than two bought to open for each put over the last 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Over the same period, the December 49.50 and 50 calls were among the positions to see the largest increase in open interest, with data from the major exchanges confirming a large number of these positions were bought to open. That means traders have been hoping DAL could continue its rally through the front-month expiration, on Friday, Dec. 16.

Today, DAL puts are popping, flying across the tape at triple the expected volume for this point in the session. In fact, the intraday put/call volume ratio of 1.34 ranks just 2 percentage points from an annual high, while put volume is also running in the 98th annual percentile. Bears have making moves today, apparently purchasing new positions at the weekly 12/9 42-strike put and the weekly 12/2 48.50-strike put.

It’s an attractive time to pick up DAL's near-term options, too. According to the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 28% -- in the low 6th percentile of its 12-month range -- short-term options are pricing in unusually low volatility expectations at the moment. Plus, the Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 77 suggests Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) shares have tended to make larger moves on the charts than the options market has priced in over the past year.

Meanwhile, JBLU is down 2.5% today at $20.54, as the company celebrates the launch of its 100th destination -- Havana, Cuba. The stock is off 17% year-over-year, and its most recent rally ran out of steam just north of $21, which roughly capped JBLU’s gains in March and April, as well. Adding to the concern for shareholders, the stock's 14-day RSI clocked in at an overbought 77 on Friday.

Despite a weak technical showing over the past 12 months, JBLU has been surrounded by optimism. Of nine analysts following the stock, six recommend buying the shares, and none recommend selling. Short interest on the security represents a modest 3.5% of its total float -- but these bearish bets are showing signs of life, climbing by nearly 33% during the most recent two-week reporting period.

In the options pits, an unwinding of bullish bets could spell trouble for JBLU stock. The equity's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX sits at a top-heavy 11.25 -- just 4 percentage points from an annual high. What's more, peak open interest among all of the stock's options resides at the December 20 call, followed by the December 21 call, which also saw the biggest rise in open interest over the past 10 sessions. Plus, the major exchanges confirm a majority of positions at both strike were bought to open, with call buyers betting on extended gains for the stock. Notably, these two strikes rank among the most popular JBLU options today, but it looks like traders are largely selling to close their positions.

Like DAL, JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU) could be presenting an attractive options-buying opportunity right now. Premium on short-term options should be particularly well-priced from a historical volatility standpoint, consider the stock's SVI of 30% is sitting lower than 97% of all comparable readings from the past 12 months. Likewise, the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility is in just the 12th annual percentile, at 32%.

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Published on Nov 28, 2016 at 3:47 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

U.S. stocks are on pace to close lower, finally taking a breather from their post-election rally. Among specific equities in focus today are tax specialists H & R Block Inc (NYSE:HRB), as well as retail stocks Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) and L Brands Inc (NYSE:LB). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on HRB, DG, and LB.

  • HRB is down 8.6% at $21.92 -- set to snap a six-day win streak -- after receiving its first "sell" rating from BTIG, which downgraded the shares from "neutral," citing concerns that tax simplification measures put forward by the Trump administration could jeopardize the company's business. Heading into today's session, HRB shares had added roughly 9% in a post-election rally, which BTIG analyst Mark Palmer said "reflects complacency in the aftermath of the election." With today's drop, H & R Block Inc's shares have erased their month-to-date gains, widening their 2016 deficit to 34%. In the stock's option pits, meanwhile, bullish betting has ramped up in recent weeks. HRB's 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) now sits in the top quartile of its annual range, at 2.90. An unwinding of these upbeat positions could serve to pressure HRB shares even lower.

  • DG has shed 1.6% to $78.79, as the company prepares to report third-quarter earnings later this week. While sector peer Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) popped on an earnings beat last week, Barclays analyst Karen Short cautioned that Dollar General Corp. may be facing different headwinds. The brokerage reiterated its "equal-weight" rating, and $70 price target -- representing an 11% discount to current trading levels. Although DG is up more than 9% year-to-date, the shares have tumbled 18.7% from their late-July highs. As of Friday's close, the stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 82 sat well into overbought territory, indicating a breather may have been in the cards. 

  • LB is 0.1% higher at $71.87, thanks to an upgrade to "neutral" from "underweight" at Piper Jaffray, which cited holiday spending momentum, saying it's possible that "broad-based relief is on the horizon for consumer discretionary spending," and thus the retail sector. L Brands Inc recently reclaimed a foothold above the 160-day moving average, which had contained several rally attempts since August. The stock is also just shy of closing its early-November bear gap. Now looks like an excellent time for buyers to get in on LB's short-term options, with the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 24% seated in the low 9th percentile of its annual range, indicating near-term options are pricing in unusually low volatility expectations. 
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Published on Nov 28, 2016 at 9:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on restaurant stock Panera Bread Co (NASDAQ:PNRA), drugmaker AstraZeneca plc (ADR) (NYSE:AZN), and solar energy stock Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on PNRA, AZN, and CSIQ.

  • PNRA has surged up the charts in recent weeks, adding roughly 17% since its Nov. 9 low of $185.69, to settle Friday at $217.16. Nonetheless, Wedbush downgraded the stock this morning to "neutral" from "outperform," saying "we believe upside to current Street's expectations could prove limited," and sending the shares 1.5% lower ahead of the bell. This skepticism certainly hasn't been shared by options traders, however. During the past two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Panera Bread Co has posted a call/put volume ratio of 2.33, which ranks in the 88th percentile of its annual range. 

  • AZN is set to add to its recent woes, dropping 1.4% in electronic trading, after J.P. Morgan Securities lowered its price target to 4,600P from 4,900P. The shares have fallen hard since hitting an annual high of $35.04 back in August, finishing last week at $27.10, and short sellers have taken notice. Specifically, short interest increased by 11.3% on AstraZeneca plc over the two most recent reporting periods. 

  • CSIQ has also struggled on the charts this year, shedding 60% year-to-date to trade at $11.58. As a result, Barclays reduced its price target on the stock to $12 from $14. On the other hand, Canadian Solar Inc. options traders continue to bet on a bounce back. By the numbers, more than five CSIQ call options have been bought to open for every put during the past two weeks at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, with the resulting call/put volume ratio ranking higher than 83% of the past year's readings.
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Published on Nov 28, 2016 at 10:03 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on semiconductor stock Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), gold firm Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), and oil-and-gas stock ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on MU, GOLD, and COP.

  • MU is looking to keep its strong year going, after Deutsche Bank lifted its price target to $24 from $20. The stock -- which has doubled in value since its January low of $9.31 -- was last seen 0.3% higher at $20.18, after touching an annual high of $20.44 on Friday. Options traders certainly share Deutsche Bank's upbeat outlook. For instance, Micron Technology, Inc.'s 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) comes in at a top heavy 6.31, ranking above 86% of the past year's readings. 

  • GOLD is up 2% today at $72.51, thanks to a price-target hike to $125 from $120 at Dundee. This target sits just below the stock's three-year high of $126.55 from July. Since then, the shares have surrendered nearly 43%, breaching their 320-day moving average earlier this month amid post-election headwinds. Still, most analysts are hopeful, with two-thirds rating Randgold Resources Ltd. a "strong buy," and none calling it a "sell." 

  • COP is getting a boost from Goldman Sachs, after the brokerage firm added the stock to its "Americas Conviction Buy" list, upgraded its rating to "buy" from "neutral," and lifted its price target to $54 from $47. The shares are 1.1% higher at $46.26, but are running out of steam near their year-to-date breakeven point. Bullish or bearish, now appears to be a prime time to buy premium on ConocoPhillips. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 35% sits just 3 percentage points from a 12-month low, meaning the options market is pricing in unusually low volatility expectations at the moment. 
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Published on Nov 28, 2016 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

U.S. stocks are down, even as oil prices move higher. Among specific equities in focus today are tech giant Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), biotech Recro Pharma Inc (NASDAQ:REPH), and media stock Time Inc (NYSE:TIME). Here's a quick look at what's driving AAPL, REPH, and TIME.

  • AAPL is up 0.1% at $111.92, after The Wall Street Journal said the release of an iPhone featuring a curved glass screen could come as soon as next year (subscription required), based on Apple Inc.'s product requests to screen suppliers. AAPL shares are down more than 5.7% since tapping a 2016 high of $118.69 in October, and are struggling against resistance in the $111-$112 range -- about a 50% retracement of their post-earnings drop. AAPL's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits at 1.67, in the 82nd percentile of its annual range. An unraveling of these bullish bets could serve to pressure AAPL lower.
  • REPH is up 20.6% at $9.36, after being halted in electronic trading, on positive data for its pain medication IV meloxicam, which achieved its primary endpoint and 10 secondary endpoints in Phase 3 trials. Recro Pharma Inc said it plans to file a U.S. New Drug Application (NDA) for meloxicam in 2017.  REPH now sits up by more than 65% since its March lows, and is on pace to eclipse its 320-day moving average for the first time since September. REPH's short interest fell by more than 30% over the last two reporting periods, with shorted shares now accounting for just 1.3% of REPH's float, suggesting there may not be much sideline cash available to fuel an extended rally.
  • TIME is trading 17% higher at $15.93, after reportedly rejecting a $1.8 billion buyout bid from billionaire Edward Bronfman Jr. Time Inc shares are now in the black for 2016, and on pace to close above their 320-day moving average for the first time since August 2015. Short sellers may be sweating today, with short interest up 11.7% in the last reporting period, now accounting for 6.1% of TIME's float -- an amount that would take nearly two weeks to cover, at TIME's average daily volume.

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Published on Nov 28, 2016 at 10:56 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Shares of Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (NASDAQ:CTSH) are soaring, after the IT firm received a letter from Elliott Management that lays out a "value-enhancement plan." Specifically, the activist investor -- which owns a 4% stake in CTSH -- requested a meeting with Cognizant Technology's board of directors to detail its goal of achieving a value of "$80-$90+ per share by the end of 2017, representing upside of 50-69 percent in just over a year."  At last check, CTSH stock was trading up 8.5% at $57.79 -- the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) -- and its options pits were bustling, with calls once again outpacing puts.

Drilling down, roughly 7,400 call have traded, compared to fewer than 2,200 puts -- five times CTSH's expected intraday options volume. Most active is the weekly 12/2 59-strike call, where it appears new positions are being purchased. If this is the case, call buyers expect the tech stock to extend today's upside over the next several sessions, and break out above $59 by Friday's close, when the weekly series expires.

This call-skewed trading is nothing new in CTSH's options pits, though. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.74 ranks just 8 percentage points from a 52-week peak. Simply stated, calls have been bought to open over puts at a near-annual-high clip in recent months.

What's more, CTSH call open interest of 93,497 contracts is docked at a 52-week peak, compared to 46,990 put options outstanding -- in the 87th percentile of its annual range. Most of this call activity has been centered at CTSH's January 2017 55-strike and April 55 calls -- the stock's top two open interest positions -- where a collective 53,105 contracts currently reside. Based on data from Trade-Alert and the major options exchanges, there's been some notable buy-to-open activity at these two strikes, meaning traders were eyeing a move north of $55 over the next several months.

On the charts, CTSH is down 10.5% year-over-year, with any upside attempts quickly contained in the $63 range. More recently, the stock's 200-day moving average has served as a ceiling for the shares, although today's bull gap has shares of Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (NASDAQ:CTSH) north of here. Should the equity close above this trendline, it would mark the first time CTHS has done so since June 23.

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Published on Nov 28, 2016 at 11:48 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Most Active Options Update
The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest options volume during the past 10 trading days. Stocks highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Among the stocks attracting notable attention are electric car maker Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and steel stock United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X). Here's a quick look at how options traders are lining up on TSLA and X. 

Most Active Options November 28

Call buying has been popular in TSLA's options pits for months, per the stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.12 across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) -- a reading in the 92nd percentile of its annual range. But that doesn't appear to tell the whole story, particularly considering the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.76 shows puts far outweighing calls among options set to expire in the next three months. Moreover, this ratio sits just one percentage point from an annual put-skewed high.

Taking a look at the options that saw the largest rise in open interest over the past two weeks reveals plenty of pessimism. Specifically, one of the most active strikes was the March 180 put, where buyers have been eyeing a drop to levels not seen since February. Plus, peak open interest in the front-month December series sits at the 200 put, where positions have largely been bought to open, meaning traders are betting on TSLA remaining below the round $200 mark through the option's expiration, on Friday, Dec. 16.

Adding to the argument that TSLA options traders are not firmly bullish, short interest on the stock has been ticking higher in recent weeks, and currently represents about 25% of the equity's available float. At TSLA's typical daily pace, it would take more than a week to cover these bearish positions. Therefore, it's likely some of these short sellers have been picking up calls to protect against an upside surprise.

Turning a quick eye back to the options pits, TSLA puts have a rare lead over calls today. The weekly 12/2 series is particularly popular, accounting for seven of the 10 most active strikes. Most popular is the 200-strike call, where it appears traders are both buying and selling to open positions. Meanwhile, a few bulls have been spotted buying to open the weekly 12/2 215-strike call, betting on a bounce by the end of the week.

Today Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is trading 0.9% higher at $198.44, shaking off a disappointing review of its Model X in Consumer Reports from last Friday. The stock is down 17.3% in 2016, and is still staring up at the round $200 level. Plus, the shares are currently going head to head with the 50-day moving average, which has limited TSLA's upward moves since August.

Along with its fellow steel stocks, X has enjoyed a sizeable rally since Donald Trump's surprise White House win earlier this month. Today, however, the shares are off 2.3% at $32.46 today, even after Barclays raised its price target on X to $27 from $18. The stock hit a nearly two-year high of $33.78 on Friday, but with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 86 -- deep in overbought territory -- a breather may have been overdue.

In recent months, options traders have been betting on upside moves for X, with the stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX seated in the 85th percentile of its 12-month range, at 1.20. Among the options to see the largest increases in open interest over the last 10 sessions, however, were the January 27 and 25 puts. And with data from the major exchanges confirming heavy buy-to-open action at those strikes, it's safe to assume plenty of speculators are betting on a downward move over the next couple of months.

X puts are trading at an accelerated rate this morning, and the weekly 12/2 series represents seven of the 10 most popular options. But while the 30-, 31-, and 32-strike puts are among the top positions, it looks like at least some of the action is on the sell-to-open side. If so, these put sellers are looking for the respective strike prices to serve as a floor for X shares through Friday's close, when the weekly series expires.

Outside of the options pits, X has seen plenty of pessimism. While short interest has been dropping swiftly in recent weeks, these bearish bets still account for 23.2% of United States Steel Corporation's (NYSE:X) total float. But shareholders shouldn't be sweating too much. After all, the stock has quadrupled in value in 2016 alone and is on track to finish November above its 80-month moving average for the first time since 2010.

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Published on Nov 21, 2016 at 9:28 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on social media stock Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), mining firm Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX), and streaming giant Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on FB, FCX, and NFLX.

  • FB is set to add over 1% this morning, after Mizuho reiterated its "outperform" rating and $146 price target -- an almost 25% premium to Friday's close of $117.02. The brokerage firm recommended buying Facebook Inc on the recent pullback, saying the company's fundamental outlook remains in tact and "valuation is compelling." Speaking of the recent pullback, FB shares have given back 12.3% since their Oct. 25 all-time high of $133.50, while options traders have shown an unusual interest in long put options in recent months. Specifically, the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.66 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) tops 96% of the past year's readings. In other news, the company on Friday announced a $6 billion stock buyback, and over the weekend, unveiled plans to add 500 employees in the U.K.

  • Cowen and Company upped its price target on FCX to $20 from $15, reiterating its "outperform" assessment in the process, saying the company is once again the "go-to copper investment vehicle." At $13.73, Freeport-McMoRan Inc has more than doubled in value year-to-date, and now seems to be consolidating above former resistance at the $13.50 level. If the shares keep up this blistering pace -- they're on pace to open 3.7% higher, and could hit a new annual peak -- additional bullish attention could add fuel to the fire. For instance, just three of the 14 brokerage firms with coverage on FCX recommend buying the stock. 
  • NFLX has gained 1.2% in electronic trading, after Brean Capital initiated coverage with a "buy" rating and $145 price target. Not only does this target equate to nearly 26% upside from the stock's Friday close of $115.21, but it sits in all-time-high territory. Netflix, Inc. shares currently sit just above their 2016 breakeven point, and near-term options traders have displayed a preference for calls over puts. This is according to NFLX's gamma-weight Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.62, which tells us call open interest handily outweighs put open interest among near-the-money options expiring in three months or less. 
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Published on Nov 21, 2016 at 9:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on Dow stocks McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) and 3M Co (NYSE:MMM), as well as retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on MCD, MMM, and ANF.

  • MCD is up a mere 0.01% at $120.01, after J.P. Morgan Securities removed the stock from its "Analyst Focus" list. While McDonald's Corporation has been rallying with the broader market since the presidential election, the shares may now be fighting resistance at their flattening 200-day moving average, positioned just above the $120 mark. Most analysts share J.P Morgan Securities' downbeat outlook, too, as 64% rate the stock a "hold" or worse. 

  • MMM is down 0.9% to trade at $171.48, after Goldman Sachs cut its rating to "sell" from "neutral." Still, the shares remain almost 14% higher for the year, holding above the $170-$171 level. This area -- also home to MMM's rising 200-day moving average -- acted as resistance from April through June, and could now act as support. If 3M Co does resume its prior uptrend, an unwinding of put traders could act as a tailwind. Specifically, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.02 reveals put open interest more than doubles call open interest among options expiring within three months. Plus, this SOIR ranks above three-fourths of all others from the past year, suggesting this heavy of a put-skew is far from the norm. 
  • ANF gapped lower on Friday on disappointing earnings, and the shares are sliding yet again as analysts continue to weigh in bearishly. No fewer than nine brokerage firms have lowered their price targets on ANF since Friday's close, including a cut to $12 from $20 at RBC, which also downgraded the stock to "underperform" from "sector perform." Abercrombie & Fitch Co. was last seen 0.3% lower at $14.55, meaning it's now dropped nearly 56% since topping out at $32.83 back in March. However, this is all just fine with ANF short sellers, who currently control one-fourth of the stock's total float. 
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Published on Nov 21, 2016 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
As the iPhone nears its 10-year anniversary, Oppenheimer struck a cautious tone toward Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). Specifically, the brokerage firm said Apple "lacks the courage to lead the next generation of innovation," and, as the tech titan becomes "more reliant than ever on the iPhone ... tailwinds from first-time buyers and switchers are no longer material." Nevertheless, AAPL stock is up 0.6% at $110.74 -- following reports the company has shuttered its wireless router division and will initiate a battery repair program for the iPhone 6S -- while options traders are showing a clear preference for calls over puts in early trading.

By the numbers, around 52,250 AAPL calls and 29,000 puts have traded so far, but it's not clear how these early bets are being lined up. More broadly speaking, call buyers have held the upper hand in AAPL's options pits. For example, speculators at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open 352,808 calls over the past 10 sessions, compared to 189,155 puts. What's more, the resultant call/put volume ratio of 1.87 ranks in the elevated 79th annual percentile.

Echoing this call-skewed backdrop is AAPL's gamma-weighted Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.66. Simply stated, near-the-money calls outweigh puts among options expiring in three months or less. Drilling down on the standard December series -- which expires at the close on Friday, Dec. 16 -- the 115 call is home to the stock's top open interest position, with 226,215 contracts currently outstanding. Meanwhile, the at-the-money December 110 call houses 73,646 open positions.

aapl december open interest configuration

Regardless of where AAPL settles at options expiration, though, the most the call buyers stand to lose is premium paid. With low volatility expectations currently priced into the stock's near-term options, now appears to be an opportune time for premium buyers to strike. Specifically, AAPL's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 19.1% ranks lower than 87% of comparable readings taken in the past 12 months, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 20% arrives in the 11th annual percentile. Echoing this, AAPL's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is docked at a lofty 99, indicating the options market has historically underpriced the stock's ability to make a big move over the last year.

Looking at the charts, AAPL's pullback from its mid-October highs near $118 -- a move exacerbated by the post-election plunge in tech stocks -- was recently contained by its 120-day moving average, as well as a 50% Fibonacci retracement of its early December high and mid-May low. Longer term, shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) are up 5.4% year-to-date.

aapl daily chart since november 2015

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Published on Nov 21, 2016 at 10:52 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

U.S. stocks are higher on ballooning oil prices. Among specific equities in focus today are chicken producer Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN), solar energy stock Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ), and identity theft specialist Lifelock Inc (NYSE:LOCK). Here's a quick look at what's driving TSN, CSIQ, and LOCK today.

  • TSN is trading 16.1% lower at $56.49 -- on the short-sale restricted list -- after the company reported an earnings miss and announced that its current president, Tom Hayes, will be stepping in to replace Donnie Smith as CEO at the end of the year. And while TSN still sits up 6% in 2016, the stock is down 27% since notching an all-time high of $77.05 in early September. In the option pits, a few option bulls may be sweating, with Tyson Foods, Inc.'s 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) of 1.83 sitting in the 80th percentile of its annual range.
  • CSIQ is down 7.2% at $10.86, after the company downwardly revised its full-year forecast due to shipping capacity issues. CSIQ has taken it on the chin so far in 2016, surrendering 62.5% -- and dropping 18.4% since the solar sector began its post-election plunge. Short sellers have been cashing in their winning chips recently, too, with short interest down 15.3% in the two most recent reporting periods. Nevertheless, short interest still accounts for a lofty 15.6% of CSIQ's available float, or 6.7 times its average daily pace of trading.
  • LOCK is  up 14.9% at $23.84, on news that cybersecurity firm Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ:SYMC) would be purchasing the cybersecurity firm in a deal valued at $2.3 billion, or $24 per LOCK share. Lifelock Inc now sits up nearly 67% in 2016, and notched a new all-time high of $23.98 earlier today. Amidst recent buyout rumors, option buyers have been especially call-skewed, with LOCK's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio docked at a top-heavy 35.74.

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