Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jan 14, 2015 at 2:40 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ:XLNX) is 2.3% lower this afternoon at $40.89, following a downgrade to "neutral" from "overweight," and a price-target cut to $44 from $47, at J.P. Morgan Securities. Meanwhile, with the company's earnings report due out next Wednesday evening, options are flying off the shelves at three times the expected intraday rate.

XLNX's most active strike is the out-of-the-money February 40 put, where a block of 5,000 contracts looks like it was sold to open this afternoon. In so doing, the trader anticipates the shares will maintain their perch atop the strike through February options expiration.

Turning to the charts, the $40 area has indeed been significant. XLNX bounced from here in late July, and in mid-October, gapped below the round-number strike before gapping back above it. In other words, the $40 mark could offer technical support going forward.

For those confident that support will hold -- as today's put writer appears to be -- now is a great time to sell premium on short-term options. XLNX's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility is 5.3% higher at 32.8%, which ranks in the 96th percentile of its annual range.

However, it's worth noting that Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ:XLNX) has made some sizable post-earnings moves in the past -- with several to the downside. Last July, the shares tumbled 14.3% in the session following the quarterly event, and in April, they dropped 9.1% over the same time frame.

Published on Jan 14, 2015 at 1:43 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) is following in the bearish footsteps of sector peer JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), down 4.1% today at $47.98. Meanwhile, with earnings on tap for tomorrow morning, calls are trading at double the expected intraday clip, and the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has popped 12% to 29.1%, as expectations ramp up for a post-event move.

Diving right in, the January 2015 50.50-strike call is among C's most active options. From the looks of it, most of the roughly 7,200 contracts on the tape have been bought to open. In other words, these speculators anticipate the stock will topple $50.50 by Friday's close, when the front-month options expire. This would require a move of roughly 5.3% from C's current perch.

Today's preference for call buying has been exhibited in recent months. During the last 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), C has accumulated a call/put volume ratio of 2.55 -- higher than 77% of all similar readings from the last year -- despite the stock's nearly 13% year-over-year loss.

As alluded to, Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) will report fourth-quarter earnings bright and early on Thursday. Historically speaking, the shares have averaged a single-session post-earnings move of 2.7% following the company's last eight trips to the confessional. However, the options market is currently pricing in a 3.4% move, suggesting pre-event premiums are relatively expensive.

Daily Chart of C since January 2014

Published on Jan 14, 2015 at 11:24 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Option bulls have been active on General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) of late. Specifically, the stock's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 4.43 ranks in the 97th annual percentile. In other words, calls have been bought to open over puts with more rapidity just 3% of the time within the past year.

It was a similar set-up on Tuesday, when calls crossed the tape at more than two times the average daily rate, and outpaced puts by a 4-to-1 margin. A hefty portion of the day's activity came at the hands of one speculator, who bought to open a massive block of 25,954 January 2015 35.50-strike calls for $648,850 (number of contracts * $0.25 premium paid * 100 shares per contract).

Profit for the speculator will accumulate on a move north of the at-expiration breakeven mark of $35.75 (strike plus premium paid). Losses, meanwhile, are limited to the initial cash outlay, should GM settle south of the strike at this Friday's close, when front-month options expire.

Today's price action is not working in the call buyer's favor, with GM last seen off 4.1% at $33.83. Today's drop only echoes the equity's withstanding technical troubles, though, with GM shedding 14% of its value on a year-over-year basis.

On the fundamental front, General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) is presenting today at the Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference, and could shed some light on its foray into the electric car industry. Meanwhile, although the company's chief financial officer projected recalls to rise this year, CEO Mary Barra said she is "cautiously optimistic" about 2015, and expects the company's European division to return to profitability by 2016.

Daily Chart of GM Since January 2014
Published on Jan 14, 2015 at 11:09 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) headed south out of the gate this morning -- and was last seen 0.8% lower at $7.42, despite a price-target hike to $8 from $6.50 at Credit Suisse. Activity has once again picked up in the stock's short-term options pits, with GRPN's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility jumping 10.8% to 81% -- in the 95th percentile of its annual range.

On a closer look, it seems speculators are keeping a bullish stance on GRPN, despite today's negative price action, with calls outpacing puts by a more than 8-to-1 margin. In the lead by a mile is the weekly 2/6 7.50-strike call, where over 1,200 contracts have been exchanged -- roughly four times as many as the next closest strike. It appears most of these contracts have been bought to open, meaning traders are looking for the stock to eclipse the $7.50 level by the close on Friday, Feb. 6, when the weekly contracts expire.

This preference for calls is nothing new for GRPN speculators. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 15.94 is higher than all similar readings from the past 52 weeks.

On the charts, Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by almost 14 percentage points in the last three months. At the moment, though, nearly 19% of GPRN's float is controlled by short sellers, accounting for over a week's' worth of buying power, at its average daily pace of trading. However, short sellers have begun to jump ship, and during the last two reporting periods, short interest dropped roughly 13%. Should GRPN resume its uptrend, it could see tailwinds if bears continue to hit the exits.

Published on Jan 14, 2015 at 10:42 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

RadioShack Corporation (NYSE:RSH) jumped more than 20% yesterday, after Salus Capital Partners offered the struggling electronics retailer a $500 million lifeline. Options traders responded, as volume quadrupled the single-session norm.

RSH's most active option by a mile was the January 2016 0.50-strike call, where north of 23,700 contracts changed hands. Several signs suggest buy-to-open activity transpired, as the traders banked on additional upside over the next year. While the shares explored the north side of $0.50 in intraday trading Tuesday, they haven't settled above that mark since early December.

Yesterday's RSH call buyers have plenty of company. During the last 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock has racked up a call/put volume ratio of 2.28 -- higher than two-thirds of all readings from the last year.

While RadioShack Corporation (NYSE:RSH) showed some signs of life yesterday, the shares have struggled over the long term. Since hitting its most recent high of $1.77 in late August, the stock has lost approximately three-quarters of its value. Today, in fact, RSH has dropped 6.5% to trade at $0.44, and has found itself on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list.

Published on Jan 14, 2015 at 8:19 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) popped 1.1% yesterday to close at $2.66, following the departure of a trio of senior executives and the appointment of a new CEO. These developments brought options traders to the table, with puts especially popular -- crossing at nine times the average daily clip.

Drilling deeper, the session's highlight was a 25,000-contract lot of February 2.50 puts that was bought to open, according to Trade-Alert. The speculator shelled out a premium of $0.17 per contract, or a total of $425,000 (number of contracts * premium paid * 100 shares per contract), to gamble on AMD settling below $2.50 at February options expiration -- a time frame which includes the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, slated for release after the close next Tuesday, Jan. 20. If this fails to happen, the most the trader will part with is the initial premium paid -- a significant sum, but chump change compared to last week's $3.5 million wager.

Meanwhile, bearish betting has hit fever pitch at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMD) 10-day put/call volume ratio of 14.40 is higher than all other readings from the last 12 months. This doesn't come as a shock, given the stock's year-over-year deficit of 38.1%.

Daily Chart of AMD since January 2014

Published on Jan 14, 2015 at 8:09 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are credit card giants American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) and Visa Inc (NYSE:V), as well as blue-chip financial firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). Below, we'll break down how option buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on AXP, GS, and V.

  • Shares of AXP have been relatively static over the past year, with the equity gaining about 2.4%. So far in 2015, though, the stock has surrendered about 4% to land at $89.23. In conjunction with this negative price action, bearish sentiment in American Express Company's option pits is approaching a peak, ahead of next Thursday's anticipated earnings report. AXP's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 1.43 ranks just 4 percentage points away from an annual high. Additionally, short-term options for the security are relatively inexpensive at the moment, with its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 22% ranking in the 36th percentile of all similar readings taken in the past year.

  • V has skyrocketed over the past 52 weeks, adding 17.1% to perch at $260.78, while outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by nearly 18 percentage points over the past three months. Yesterday, the credit card giant also enjoyed a $15 price-target hike to $285 from Guggenheim, underscored by a "buy" rating. Surprisingly, sentiment in the options pits has reached a bearish climax -- Visa Inc's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 2.65 is the highest such reading taken over the past year. Fortunately for buyers, V's short-term options are currently inexpensive, with its SVI of 17% ranking in the 25th percentile of its annual range.

  • GS fell 0.1% yesterday to $184.93, after Nomura slashed its price target to $187 from $192, and ahead of the company's scheduled earnings report this Friday. However, the blue-chip stock is still up 4.7% year-over-year. In the same vein as the revised price target, sentiment among both options trader and the analyst community is trending bearishly. Only 27% of covering analysts rate Goldman Sachs Group Inc a "buy" or better, with the remaining 73% doling out "hold" or worse ratings, leaving the door wide open for potential upgrades to boost the shares even higher. Likewise, GS' 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.88 ranks higher than three-fourths of all similar readings taken over the past year -- an unwinding of this pessimistic sentiment could result in positive tailwinds for the security. Short-term options for GS are still averagely priced ahead of earnings, with its SVI of 24% ranking in the 56th percentile of its annual range.
Published on Jan 13, 2015 at 2:44 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Ocwen Financial Corp (NYSE:OCN) has crumbled today, down 34% to trade at $8.05, after earlier touching a five-year low of $7.64. Spurring the sharp loss was a decision by California regulators to seek suspension of the firm's mortgage license, citing a failure to submit paperwork documenting compliance with the state's Homeowner Bill of Rights. Accordingly, the stock was briefly halted, and was also placed on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list -- prompting a rush of put buying, as traders seek alternative avenues to bet bearishly.

Taking a quick step back, OCN puts are crossing at more than five times the rate expected at this point in the afternoon. Most active is the security's January 2015 7-strike put, where all signs point to buy-to-open activity. In short, these traders anticipate the shares will extend their losses through the end of this week -- when the front-month options expire -- and settle below $7 on Friday afternoon. OCN hasn't explored territory south of $7 since May 2009.

Today's technical struggles aren't anything new for the financial stock, however. Heading into the session, OCN had shed nearly 78% of its value year-over-year, ushered lower by its 10-week moving average.

As such, put buying has hit an annual extreme. Specifically, during the last 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), OCN has tallied a put/call volume ratio of 10.34 -- higher than all other readings from the last year.

Similarly, short interest levels are approaching a 52-week peak. During the most recent reporting period, short interest on Ocwen Financial Corp (NYSE:OCN) rose 19.1%, and more than one-quarter of the security's float is now dedicated to short interest.

Published on Jan 13, 2015 at 2:42 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Unlike fellow storage device specialist SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK), Emulex Corporation (NYSE:ELX) is soaring in the wake of its updated guidance. Specifically, the stock is up 20.9% at $7.01, after ELX forecast better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results. Options traders are responding in kind, scooping up calls at a rate 36 times the average intraday pace.

According to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), buy-to-open activity has been detected at ELX's January 2015 6-strike call -- the equity's most active option. Based on present trading levels, these calls are not only in the money, but the stock is lingering near the at-expiration breakeven mark of $7.01 (strike plus the volume-weighted average price of $1.01). Profit will accrue north of here, while losses are limited to the initial premium paid, should ELX settle the week -- when front-month options expire -- south of the strike price.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals option bulls have been active on ELX in recent months. In fact, the stock's 50-day ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 85.97 ranks just 4 percentage points from an annual bullish peak. With nearly 10% of the equity's float sold short -- representing more than two weeks' worth of pent-up buying demand, at average daily trading levels -- some of this call buying could have been a result of shorts hedging their bearish bets.

Thanks to today's surge, the stock is now enjoying a more than 23% year-to-date lead. However, Emulex Corporation (NYSE:ELX) is running into double-barreled resistance near the $7.08-$7.15 region, which is home to its year-over-year breakeven mark and it's nearly filled May 1 bear gap, respectively.

Daily Chart of ELX Since January 2014
Published on Jan 13, 2015 at 1:25 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) has plunged 10% today -- and found a place on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list -- on news that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been granted a patent for a camera system similar to the one GPRO develops. In GPRO's options pits, volume is trading at 1.8 times the average intraday pace, and short-term contracts are in demand. Specifically, all 10 of GPRO's most active options expire in the next six weeks.

The equity's January 2015 60-strike put has seen the most action, but according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), a number of these positions are being sold to close ahead of Friday's expiration. Looking down the list, GPRO's January 2015 55-strike call has received notable attention, with signs suggesting a mix of buy- and sell-to-open activity.

By buying to open the calls, traders expect GPRO to bounce back above $55 by week's end -- when front-month options expire. Meanwhile, those selling to open the calls are betting on the level to hold as a short-term ceiling.

From a wider sentiment perspective, option bulls have been active on GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) in recent weeks, despite the stock being down 48% from its Oct. 7 all-time high of $98.47 to trade at $51.07. At the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 1.48 calls for every put during the past 10 sessions. With nearly 30% of the equity's float sold short, though, a portion of this call buying may be a result of shorts hedging against any unexpected upside.

Published on Jan 13, 2015 at 11:51 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

An upgrade to "outperform" from "neutral" at Credit Suisse has SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) 7% higher today at $27.30. As such, calls are crossing at two times what's typically seen at this point in the day, and the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has popped 7.1%, pointing to escalating demand for near-term contracts. In fact, all 10 of SPWR's most active strikes are calls, with the January 2015 25 and 26.50 strikes leading the way.

Digging deeper, it appears most of the contracts crossing at these strikes are being bought to open, implying that the traders expect the stock to extend today's rally and continue to trade above the respective strikes through this Friday's close, when the contracts expire.

Optimism exists outside of SPWR's options pits, as well, despite the security's long-term technical struggles. Of the 10 analysts covering the stock, seven rate it a "buy" or better. Moreover, its average 12-month price target of $38.73 represents a 41.9% premium to current trading levels.

Despite today's pop, SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) has dropped roughly 10% year-over-year, and has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by nearly 19 percentage points in the past three months. In fact, the equity has spent the past six months embarking on a series of lower highs and lows, and has given up more than 35% since touching a five-year high of $42.07 in late June.

Daily Chart of SPWR since August
Published on Jan 13, 2015 at 11:48 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Doughnut king Dunkin Brands Group Inc (NASDAQ:DNKN) is flirting with a 3.6% gain at $45.67, likely thanks to upbeat comments from CEO Nigel Travis. In the options pits, DNKN calls are flying off the shelves at 40 times the typical intraday pace, and the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has jumped 4.9% to 31.1%, signaling elevated demand for near-term contracts.

Attracting the most attention is the March 47.50 call, which has seen a mix of buy- and sell-to-open activity. "Vanilla" buyers expect DNKN to surmount $47.50 by the close on Friday, March 20, when the back-month options expire. In light of today's advance, delta on the call has jumped to 0.39 from 0.28 at yesterday's close, implying a roughly 39% chance of the contract expiring in the money.

Today's affinity for DNKN calls merely echoes the growing trend seen on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), where traders have bought to open nearly 10 calls for every put during the past two weeks. The resulting 10-day call/put volume ratio of 9.80 stands higher than 71% of all other readings from the past year, pointing to a healthier-than-usual appetite for bullish bets of late.

Since suffering a steep bear gap in mid-December, Dunkin Brands Group Inc (NASDAQ:DNKN) has made serious headway, climbing 10%. However, the shares are now staring at their 50-week moving average -- currently lingering near $46 -- which has acted as both support and resistance over the past year.

Weekly Chart of DNKN since January 2014 with 50-Week Moving Average

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