Before the month started, I had an article showing the typical December returns over different time frames. The chart is below with the current December return. It completely distorts the axis but it's clear that things have not gone as expected. It's the worst start to December since 1931, which was early in the Great Depression.

Historically, the end of December has been a good time for stocks, as you can see in the typical returns in the chart below. This week, I'll look at whether the huge decline so far changes the numbers. Also, I'll drill down to see how stocks typically perform over the next two holiday weeks, Christmas and New Year's.

Are Stocks Poised for a Bounce?

Stocks have tended to bounce after awful returns through the first 18 days of December. When the month is down by 2% or more at this point, the rest of the month has been positive nearly 90% of the time, averaging a gain of 1.42%. I'm not sure how comforting that is, considering the S&P 500 is down about 8% so far this month, but it's better than expecting further losses.

Here are the individual returns for the worst Decembers, at this point, for the S&P 500 Index. The table below goes back to 1928. Notice the 2018 return is the second worst so far, sandwiched between two Great Depression years.

 

Holiday Weeks and Stock Performance

The next two weeks are shortened four-day weeks for traders, with markets closed next Tuesday, Dec. 25, for Christmas, and the following Tuesday, Jan. 1, for New Year's Day. These two weeks have generally been positive for stocks. The S&P 500, during the week of Christmas, averages a 0.51% return, with 66% of the returns positive. New Year's has been better, averaging a gain of 0.74%, with 68% of the returns positive. Both weeks outpace typical weekly returns going back to 1950.

Finally, in the tables below, I drill down on how the S&P 500 has performed in the days surrounding the holidays. The day before and after Christmas have been quite bullish, with very low volatility. Based on that, you would consider buying the index this Friday and capturing the return on Monday and Wednesday before considering selling.

As far as the New Year's holiday goes, the first trading day of the year shows not even half of the days have been positive, but then the next day is quite bullish. I find that the most interesting data in the second table is the volatility jump once you hit the new year. The last two days of the year have significantly less volatility than usual -- but then the first two trading days of the new year show significantly more volatility.

The shares of Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) are down 8.5% in electronic trading after the chipmaker's quarterly report. Micron revealed weaker-than-expected sales for its fiscal first-quarter, but more importantly gave a cautious outlook for 2019, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra citing weak industry trends.

In response, Needham and RBC downgraded the chipmaker to "hold" and "sector perform," respectively. No fewer than seven other brokerages issued price-target cuts as well, including to $32 from $38 at BMO. Morgan Stanley in its bearish note said that Micron earnings are a sign of more weakness ahead.

On the charts, Micron stock is set to open at a new annual low, likely breaching its Dec. 17 bottom of $33.60. More specifically, it's shaping up to be MU's worst day since Sept. 6. But even prior to today's collapse, the shares had been digging out a channel of lower lows, with breakouts contained by their 40-day moving average, a trendline with bearish implications.

Despite the stock's struggles in 2018, analyst sentiment remains strong. Of the 24 brokerages covering MU, more than half rate it a "buy" or "strong buy," with only one "sell" on the books. Further, the security's consensus 12-month price target of $51.39 is a 50% premium to yesterday's closing perch of $34.11, suggesting today's onslaught of bear notes could be far from the last. 

In addition, there is ample room for more short sellers to come aboard the struggling chip name. The 48.28 million shares sold short is the lowest amount since September 2017, and represents a meager 4.4% of MU's total available float, or only 1.8  times the average daily trading volume. 

In the options pits, speculative players have been buying to open puts relative to calls at a quicker-than-usual clip. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.82 ranks 5 percentage points from an annual high. Echoing this, Micron's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.82 sits in the 80th percentile of its annual range, indicating that near-term traders have rarely been less call biased in the past 12 months. 

"An immediate risk to bulls… is the big put open interest lingering at the SPY 260 strike, a large majority of which was bought to open… big put open interest strikes like this can sometimes act as a magnet due to ‘delta hedging’, which occurs when sellers of the puts are forced to sell S&P futures to hedge their positions … Admittedly, this is a tricky situation, as there is a bullish counter-argument to this situation. That is, any short positions associated with the 260-strike put open interest that exists now will get steadily unwound if the SPY remains above $260 and we move closer to expiration day."
-- Monday Morning Outlook, December 10, 2018

We enter expiration week with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - 260.47) just above the put-heavy 260 strike that I discussed in detail last week. The significance of this strike has not changed, as you can see in the updated graph below. Normally, other large put open interest strikes could act as magnets too, but in this case, the put open interest at the 250 and 255 strikes was generated by sell-to open-volume, which means buying of S&P futures is likely to occur as those put strikes are approached. 

In other words, as we look ahead to this week from a purely options-related perspective, the market sets up for increased volatility if the SPY 260 strike is violated, but dampening volatility if the 255 strike is approached. On Monday and Friday of last week, the SPY broke below $260, but it was only temporary, as the bulls quickly regained control.

Bulls should welcome the fact that the moves below the put-heavy 260-strike proved only temporary last week, as technical buying may have overcome delta-hedge selling, with buyers stepping in as the SPY traded around its February and early April 2018 closing lows. Moreover, the $255 area is the next level of potential support from both an options-related and a chart perspective, as this area marked the intraday lows in these same months. 

"[B]oth the SPY and SPX found themselves below their respective 80-week moving averages for the second time in three weeks heading into the weekend... Therefore, caution flags are out once again about the increased possibility of bear-market action in the coming months, or at the very least a further correction down to the 2,400 level on the SPX or $240 on the SPY -- site of the 160-week moving averages."
-- Monday Morning Outlook, December 10, 2018

Unfortunately for bulls, previous 2018 lows holding is about the only thing that gives them hope at the present. It is the bears that have more to get excited about, starting with a brief rally last week stalling at $266.86, last year’s SPY close. 

Additionally, a trendline connecting the various lows since February was violated (see the SPY daily graph immediately below). This trendline was breached intraday on a few occasions, but at Friday’s close, the SPY closed significantly below it. Finally, moving beyond the daily chart, the SPY again closed below its 80-week moving average, after peaking at its declining 80-day moving average earlier this month -- the third weekly close below this important long-term moving average in four weeks.   

In addition to the technical deterioration in the market, monetary concerns come to the forefront this week, as the Fed meets again and is expected to raise rates for the ninth time in this tightening cycle. Per the table below that summarizes SPY action in the month following rate hikes, there is little for bulls to get excited about.

Finally, on the sentiment front, I have two more concerns. The first falls under the headline of equities not doing what they are expected to do when bullish conditions exist. While the buy-to-open, equity-only put/call volume ratio is rolling over from an extreme high -- normally a sign that trader pessimism is exhausted -- stocks have been unable to respond with a V-type rally. Instead, Friday’s SPY close was its lowest since early April. In other words, even as equity option buyers have grown more optimistic relative to a couple of weeks ago, the broad market has been despondent, indicative of major motivated sellers.

Moreover, we compiled short interest data that was made available last week by the exchanges, as of Dec. 1. I was shocked by what I was seeing when looking at S&P 500 Index (SPX - 2,599.95) component short interest, which remains at extremely low levels. In other words, the shorts have not even begun to smell blood. 

A risk to bulls is that the shorts begin to build positions like they have done in the past, which would be an additional headwind. In the past, it was the work of the shorts that helped drive short-term pullbacks. And it was the unwinding of those short positions that helped the market find support and make the V-bottoms we have grown accustomed to seeing -- but have yet to materialize. Now, the tables are turned relative to the recent past, as it is the shorts that could very well put a lid on rallies and drive stocks further lower.

Continue reading:

• Indicator of the Week: When to Panic About the Yield Curve
• The Week Ahead: December Rate Hike, Micron Earnings on Tap

The shares of medical analytics issue Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) have taken a breather since touching a record high of $253.90 in early December. However, the equity could be ready to launch its next leg higher, with TMO shares flashing a historical buy signal.

Specifically, Thermo Fisher stock is now within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average. When encountering this trendline in the past few years, TMO shares boast an average one-month gain of 7.9% and have been positive 83% of the time, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

At last check, TMO was up 1.2% to trade at $231.59. A move of similar magnitude would have the stock trading near $250 once again. Since pulling back from that Dec. 3 high, the shares have churned below the $245 level. Overall, the security boasts a 22% lead year-to-date. 

While Thermo Fisher options volume tends to run light on an absolute basis, speculators have been tremendously fond of bearish bets lately. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 3.62 is in the 92nd percentile of its annual range. This suggests options buyers have picked up TMO puts over calls at an accelerated clip in the past two weeks. Echoing this, total call open interest stands at 20,731 contracts, a new annual high. 

Those wanting to buy options to bet on TMO's short-term trajectory will have to pay up, though. The security's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) checks in at 26.7%, in the 95th annual percentile, meaning near-term bets are pricing in higher-than-normal volatility expectations.

The major stock market indexes are in correction territory -- defined as at least 10% below their record highs -- and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is no exception. In fact, the broad-market index fell more than 11% in just 50 sessions, marking the first time the index has dropped at least 10% in that short of a span since January 2016. Below is what we might expect for the S&P going forward, if past is prologue.

Going back to 2000, there have been 14 of these signals, allowing just one signal per quarter, according to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal. Prior to the early 2016 pullback, the last time the SPX made such a fast correction was in August 2015, around the time of the "flash crash." That marked the first signal in four years.

As you can see on the chart above, stocks recovered nicely after corrections since the January 2009 signal, which preceded the March 2009 bottom. Three months after the last fast retreat, the S&P was up 11.4%. The last time the index was negative three months after a quick correction was back in 2008, during the throes of the financial crisis.

Since 2000, when the S&P has dropped at least 10% in 50 sessions, the index has experienced more short-term speed bumps. One week later, the SPX was down 0.7%, on average, and higher just 36% of the time. That's compared to an average anytime one-week gain of 0.1%, looking at data since 2000. The SPX averaged a loss at both the two-week and one-month checkpoints, too, compared to average anytime gains.

However, stocks begin to recover by the two-month marker. Two months after a relatively fast correction, the SPX was up 1.1%, on average -- slightly better than its anytime returns. Three months later, the index was 2.2% higher, on average, and up 71% of the time, compared to an average anytime three-month gain of 1.2% with a 64% win rate. And again, the three-month returns after a correction would be even stronger, if not for steep drops after the signals in 2008 and 2002.

 

The current volatile backdrop could continue well into 2019, though, comparing Standard Deviation stats above. This, even though the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) averaged losses at all checkpoints following a quick SPX correction, and was higher less than 40% of the time across the board. This suggests that even though SPX volatility tends to run hotter than usual after corrections, volatility expectations tend to decline.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicked off its two-day policy-setting meeting today, with the central bank widely expected to announce another rate hike tomorrow afternoon -- despite protests from President Donald Trump and recently dovish Fed comments. While the S&P 500 Index (SPX) tends to struggle the month after Fed rate hikes, several stocks could enjoy a lift, if recent history is any indicator, including chip concern Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) and healthcare issue Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR).

Below are the 25 best stocks to own after Fed meetings since 2015 (when the current tightening cycle began), whether or not the central bank raises rates or stands pat. AMD is near the top of the list, averaging a 1.77% return in the subsequent week -- tied for second-best of all SPX stocks -- and moving higher 68% of the time. NKTR stock has averaged the best one-week gain after Fed meetings, up 2.83% with a 65% win rate, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

Those gains only intensify following a Fed rate hike. Below are the 25 best-performing stocks after rate hikes since 2015. AMD stock went on to average a one-week gain of more than 3.13%, ending higher 75% of the time. That's second only to NKTR shares, which averaged a one-week gain of 6.89%, also with a win rate of 75%.

Advanced Micro Devices stock has slipped more than 40% since its mid-September 12-year highs north of $34. The shares are currently trading around $19.59, and remain 90% higher year-to-date. What's more, AMD is back within one standard deviation of its 200-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch above this trendline. There have been four similar pullbacks in the past couple of years, after which the semiconductor concern was higher one month later 100% of the time, with an average gain of more than 10.5%.

Traders looking to speculate on AMD's short-term trajectory should consider doing so with options. The stock sports a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 99 out of a possible 100, indicating the shares have handily exceeded options traders' volatility expectations in the past year.

Nektar Therapeutics stock has surrendered more than two-thirds of its value since peaking above $111 in March, last seen trading around $35.65. The equity suffered a big bear gap in early June, due to poorly received data on the company's experimental cancer treatment, NKTR-214, with Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) Opdivo. Since then, NKTR has struggled to fill that gap, and touched an annual low of $33.50 on Nov. 9. Even relatively well-received combination drug data last month failed to propel the shares out of their recent range.

Another post-Fed breakout could catch a few shorts off-guard. Short interest spiked more than 22% in the past two reporting periods, and now represents 12.4% of the equity's total available float.

Again, traders looking to speculate on the drug stock's near-term momentum should consider options. Not only is Nektar's SVS at a lofty 97, its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 67% is in just the 18th percentile of its annual range. In simpler terms, short-term options are pricing in relatively tame volatility expectations for NKTR at the moment.

The shares of AxoGen, Inc (NASDAQ:AXGN) are down 22% to trade at $21.47, fresh off an annual low of $19.21, after Seligman Investments posted a scathing report on Seeking Alpha. The investment firm -- which is short AXGN -- said the nerve repair specialist has a "dubious profile and prospects," and set a $5.07 price target, an 82% discount to last night's close.

AXGN options are running hot today, too, although volume is light on an absolute basis. At last check, 1,073 calls and 866 puts have changed hands -- 10 times what's typically seen at this point. The December 22.50 call is most active, and it looks like new positions are being initiated. More broadly speaking, the December 40 call is home to peak open interest of 893 contracts, and it looks like most of these were sold to open back on Nov. 19, when the shares were trading just above $28.

While the stock is down 22% since then, this downturn started back in July, shortly after AXGN hit a record high of $56.85. What's more, the security's formerly supportive 200-day moving average recently emerged as a newfound ceiling.

Analysts, meanwhile, are mostly upbeat -- putting the shares at risk of downgrades, which could fuel future selling. Five of the six covering brokerages maintain a "strong buy" rating, and the average 12-month price target of $45.60 is more than double AXGN stock's current price.

 

 

At last check, shares of Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) were up nearly 2% to trade at $104.22, after Buckingham Research assumed coverage of the "Red Dead" creator with a "buy" rating. Plus, the analyst issued a $130 price target -- an almost 25% premium to current levels. 

TTWO shares have pulled back since peaking at $139.91 in early October, pressured by broad-market and sector headwinds. However, the equity has found support atop the century mark, as well as its ascending 100-week moving average.

Buckingham Research isn't the only analyst bullish on TTWO; 12 of 15 analysts have doled out a "strong buy" rating, with nary a "sell" in sight. The brokerage bunch has been widely optimistic about "Red Dead Redemption 2" sales this holiday season, as the game already enjoyed a record reception back in October.

However, not everyone has faith in TTWO. Short sellers have been piling on, with short interest skyrocketing a whopping 66% in the past two reporting periods. Should the shares once again bounce off support in the $95-$100 area -- a pullback to this region in April-May preceded a run to record highs -- this fresh batch of shorts could be in hot water.

 

The Dow is holding modest gains today despite a huge decline in oil prices. Three of today's biggest stock moves are coming from truck producer Navistar International Corp (NYSE:NAV), retailer Rent-A-Center Inc (NASDAQ:RCII), and storied soccer franchise Manchester United PLC (NYSE:MANU). Let's take a closer look at the shares of NAV, RCII, and MANU below.

Earnings Lift NAV Shares Off Lows

Navistar stock is rallying after earnings, last seen up 15.7% at $27.58. The company's profit for its fiscal fourth quarter topped expectations, and it also raised its full-year truck delivery forecast. The move comes just a day after NAV shares touched a 52-week low of $23.70, and is much needed, given the equity's three-month slide of 31%.

As such, this price action could be catching some bears off guard. Put buying was more popular than call buying during the past two weeks across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), and short sellers are holding 2.6 million shares -- 6.4 times the average daily trading volume.

Buyout News Sinks RCII Stock

RCII shares are tanking after the company said its agreement to be taken private by Vintage Capital, originally announced back in June, has been terminated. The stock has dropped 8.2% to trade at $13.27, earlier bouncing from its 320-day moving average after Vintage Capital labeled the decision to end the deal as "invalid" and promised to fight it. For reference, the security's last closing price before the deal was made public was $12.03.

More details will come later this week for investors, with Rent-A-Center scheduled to give an updated financial outlook this Thursday, Dec. 20. Analysts at Janney, meanwhile, have wasted little time, issuing a "buy" rating on RCII and $15 price target.

MANU Stock Pops After Manager Gets the Boot

Manchester United stock is getting help today after manager Jose Mourinho left the team, sending the shares 5.6% higher to $18.27. Amid a historically poor start for the soccer team, the equity's performance has been equally bad, as it's dropped roughly 23% in the past three months. In fact, MANU hit a 52-week low of $16.95 just over a week ago, and it's closed lower in the last three sessions. 

 

Barron's tapped Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) as one of its top 10 picks for 2019 (subscription required), saying the FAANG stock's "valuation looks attractive and there appears to be limited risk to current-year earnings even if one assumes a 5% to 10% decline in iPhone sales." The financial news magazine also pointed to Apple's massive buyback program as a source of significant buying power next year.

Options traders are showing a preference for calls over puts in today's trading, too, echoing a recent trend. In fact, Apple is on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks that have attracted the highest options volume during the past 10 days, with names highlighted in yellow new to the list. In the last two weeks, roughly 2.39 million calls have changed hands on AAPL, compared to about 2 million puts.

Looking at data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a notable portion of this activity was of the buy-to-open kind. AAPL stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.85 ranks in the 65th annual percentile, showing calls have been bought to open relative to puts at a modestly quicker-than-usual clip.

Drilling down on the front-month series, the December 170 call saw a prominent rise in open interest over the last two weeks. Data from the major options exchanges confirms a number of positions were bought to open, meaning traders expect a breakout above $170 by expiration at the close this Friday, Dec. 21.

On the charts, Apple stock's tumble from its Oct. 3 record high of $233.47 has been swift, with the stock down 28%. Plus, the shares entered bear-market territory in late November, and have shed 9% since an early December rejection at $185 -- near the site of that bear market threshold. And while the shares are up 1.6% today at $168.18, they are still staring up at their year-to-date breakeven mark of $169.23.

Last week, the three major market indexes fell into "correction" territory -- defined as at least 10% off their recent highs -- at the same time. It was the first time the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) were in correction territory simultaneously since around the August 2015 "flash crash." Prior to that, the broader stock market signal hadn't sounded since January 2008, during the financial crisis, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

Below are all the times the three indexes moved 10% from their highs at the same time, looking at data since 1972 (the first year we have Nasdaq data). The first "alarm bells" sounded in April 1973, which was the only signal for eight years. It's also notable that the signal went off on Oct. 16, 1987 -- just one session before "Black Monday" on Oct. 19, 1987. Likewise, the correction signal went off in April 2000, around the start of the dot-com bubble bursting.

It's no surprise, then, to find that these steep, simultaneous pullbacks have preceded notable stock market sell-offs in the past. After the 10 signals, the S&P 500 was down another 0.6%, on average, compared to an average anytime return of 0.67%, looking at data since 1973. One year later, meanwhile, the index was up a weaker-than-usual 2.75%, and higher just half the time. That's compared to an average anytime one-year gain of 8.84% and a 75% win rate.

The outlier is the three-month marker, with the index generating a better-than-average gain of 3.09%, compared to 2.05% anytime. It's also worth noting that greater-than-usual volatility tends to persist after signals, looking at the Standard Deviation columns in the chart below.

In conclusion, if past is prologue, stocks could be in for a wild ride. From a specific technical standpoint, bulls are hoping previous 2018 lows hold, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) $255 level could emerge as the next line of defense, per Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone's latest Monday Morning Outlook. However, the latest short interest data indicates the shorts haven't even begun to smell blood yet, which could put a lid on stock rallies.

At last check, shares of Molina Healthcare Inc (NYSE:MOH) are down 9.7% to trade at $118.94. The dramatic drop is part of a sector-wide spiral on news of a Texas judge deeming the Affordable Care Act (ACA), widely called "Obamacare," unconstitutional, in a ruling issued late Friday. In a statement, Molina said it was "disappointed" with the decision, but recognized "that this is a first step in what will be a lengthy appeals process." 

Before today's bear gap, MOH stock was in the midst of a rebound off its 160-day moving average, after testing the trendline in mid-November. The stock just last week briefly peaked above $140 -- about a 61.9% Fibonacci retracement from MOH's Sept. 24 all-time high of $154.06 to its Nov. 20 intraday low of $114.44 -- but is now trading south of the aforementioned moving average for the first time since early March.

Analysts at Evercore ISI said that Molina, an ACA-exposed managed care provider, and others like it are the most susceptible to volatility after the ruling, but suspects that ultimately the mandate will be overturned. An analyst at BMO Capital also predicted an appeal, calling the sudden drop a buying opportunity for healthcare stocks.

MOH short interest dropped 22.5% in the past two reporting periods, but several holdouts could be cheering today. These bearish bets still account for a healthy 8% of MOH's total available float, or about six days' worth of trading, at the equity's average daily volume.

MOH's dip has options traders more active than usual today. While absolute volume remains light, Molina has seen more than 300 puts and 330 calls change hands -- three times the average intraday pace.