Marqeta Inc (NASDAQ:MQ) is down 3.7% at $4.40 at last glance, after a downgrade from Morgan Stanley to "equal weight" from "overweight," with a price-target cut to $4.50 from $8.00.

The stock has been climbing since its Mar. 23 record low of $3.46, and is today on track to snap a five-day win streak. Prior to last week's 28% pop, MQ posted eight straight weekly losses. Despite today's pulback, MQ is still above its 20-day moving average after breaking above it last session. 

Options traders have been more bearish than usual. This is per Marqeta stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.19 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks higher than 94% of readings from the past year. 

Of the 17 analysts in coverage, 11 carry a "buy" or better rating, with six a "hold" or worse. The 12-month consensus price target of $7.00 is a 58.4% premium to current levels. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) futures are up 108 points this morning, while futures on the Nasdaq Composite Index (NDX) are moving in the opposite direction and S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures are marginally lower, just after all three major benchmarks turned in solid quarterly wins.

Oil futures are rising before the bell, following a surprise crude output cut from Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+).

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

• What to expect as the second quarter begins. 
• Breaking down last week's top market headlines.
• Plus, oil stock pops; Sunnova Energy scores bullish coverage; and WWE's merger news. 

5 Things You Need to Know Today

1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw over 1.9 million call contracts and more than 2.2 million put contracts traded on Friday. The single-session equity put/call ratio and 21-day moving average rose to 1.12 and 0.79, respectively.
2. Marathon Oil Corp (NYSE:MRO) is up 7.6% premarket, rising alongside other energy stocks following the aforementioned oil output cuts. Some analysts are warning that crude prices could hit $100 per barrel. Year-to-date, MRO is down 11.5%. 
3. Sunnova Energy International Inc (NYSE:NOVA) is 6% higher in electronic trading, after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the solar energy concern  with an "overweight" rating. The analyst in coverage noted shares could more than double in value, which bodes well as they're 13.3% lower in 2023.
4. World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:WWE) agreed to be sold to UFC's parent company Endeavor Group (EDR) in a deal valued $21 billion, with a new publicly traded company now expected to form. Down nearly 6.6% before the bell, WWE sports a 46.2% year-over-year lead. 
5. Today features ISM manufacturing data and construction spending.

Investors Unpack Deluge of Asian Economic Data

Asian markets mostly rose on Monday, with the exception of South Korea’s Kospi, which finished the day with a 0.2% drop. Investors unpacked key economic data out of the region, as Japan’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) climbed to 49.2 in March, above estimates of 47.7. South Korea’s PMI fell to 47.6, its steepest contraction in six months. China’s manufacturing PMI came in at 50 for last month, down from February and below the anticipated 51.7. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.5% for the day, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.04%, and China’s Shanghai Composite tacked on 0.7%.

European markets are mixed midday, with oil stocks getting a boost from the rise in oil prices. London’s FTSE 100 is up 0.6% at last glance, while the French CAC 40 rises 0.4%. The German DAX, meanwhile, is down 0.08%.

Wall Street finished both March and the first quarter 2023 with a flourish. The Nasdaq logged its best quarter since June 2020, the S&P 500 turned in its second-straight quarterly win, while the Dow rode a 415-point win to finish the quarter higher on the last day.

For the month and week, all three indexes secured solid wins. Meanwhile, Wall Street's "fear gauge," the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), settled lower for the sixth-straight day, while also logging weekly, monthly, and quarterly losses.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

• BlackBerry stock somehow won the day.
• Is the bank sector drama behind us? Wall Street thinks so.
• Plus, GNRC gaps lower; right-wing stocks break out; and all about zero-day options.

5 Things to Know Today 

1. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will grant California the authority to require half of all heavy-truck sales to be electric by 2035. (CNBC) 
2. More than 157,000 technology employees have been laid off since the start of 2023. (MarketWatch)
3. Why Generac stock took a breather today. 
4. 2 Trump-linked stocks enjoying political tailwinds.
5. Should you be trading zero-day options?

Oil Prices Fall for 5th-Straight Month

Oil futures closed at their highest level in roughly three weeks today, though they fell for their fifth-straight month and snagged a quarterly loss to boot. Specifically, May-dated crude added $1.30, or 1.8%, to close at $75.67 per barrel for the session, but fell 1.8% and 5.7% for the month and quarter, respectively. 

Despite earlier crossing above $2,000 an ounce earlier in the session, June-dated gold ultimately erased $11.50, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,986.20 per ounce Friday. Still, based on the most active contracts, gold rose 8.1% for the month and 8.8% for the quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) started the last week of March strong, as investors set aside their worries over the banking sector. On Tuesday, rising bond yields pressured Wall Street lower, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC), though things eventually cooled down as optimism returned and bond yields retreated. That upward momentum carried into the latter part of the week, with the SPX settling at its highest level in more than a month. All three benchmarks are pacing for solid weekly wins, though just the IXIC and SPX are on track to close out the quarter higher.

Walgreens Boots Alliance's Quarterly Win

This week's earnings slate was relatively bare, but the firms that stepped into the confessional are worth highlighting. Blue-chip pharma giant Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported top- and bottom-line results that exceeded analysts' expectations. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) earned no fewer than 13 bull notes after its results rolled in, and EVgo (EVGO) reported revenue that rose nearly four-fold from a year ago. Finally, BlackBerry (BB) chimed in with a big fourth-quarter revenue miss and disappointing guidance.

ROKU, PARA Boast Long-Term Strength

Plenty of analyst notes rolled in over the week. At least two brokerages had their eyes on the future, with Susquehanna praising Roku's (ROKU) "long-term drivers," while Bank of America upgraded Paramount (PARA) stock after citing the company's strength in the event of a sale. Elsewhere, UBS upgraded Pinterest (PINS) on improving advertising trends, but downgraded Foot Locker (FL) after highlighting how a recession could dent the retailer.

April Set to Kick Off Slowly

April will start slow, with employment data and a trickle of earnings set to be released in the first week of the month. Meanwhile, Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone explains why investors need both bullish and bearish exposure in the current climate.

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, March 26.

The first quarter of 2023 wraps up next week, sneaking up on investors in typical blink-and-you-missed-it fashion. At junctures like these, to avoid bad habits from festering too long within an investing calendar, it’s always helpful to check on what’s worked, what hasn’t, and what’s ahead. By no means is this a comprehensive analysis of every pertinent thing that went down on Wall Street in the last three months. Instead, consider this a quick temperature check of the stock market ecosystem.

It feels like a distant memory at this point, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA), S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) were sporting double-digit gains as the calendar turned to February. As of Friday though, the Dow and S&P 500 have sunk into negative territory on the year and have only five more trading days to secure a quarterly win. The Nasdaq has held on, up 13% year-to-date, as the tech sector broadly rebounds from a disastrous 2022. Per the table below, Big Tech stocks are all confidently higher year-to-date. Meta Platforms (META) deserves its flowers for a sector-pacing 70.80% year-to-date gain, albeit begrudgingly because it came at the behest of massive employee layoffs.

In terms of volatility, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), spent the first two months of the year churning under 20 in a Zen-like state, only to break out in March as the banking crisis took center stage. What the new volatility climate will be in the next two quarters – as the Fed winds down its hawkish interest rate policy and bank stocks churn – will be a situation to monitor.

Bitcoin (BTC), everyone’s favorite drama queen, is up 67.6% in 2023 at last check, while the best-performing exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of 2023 so far are all Bitcoin or cryptocurrency adjacent. The ETF laggards, to nobody’s surprise, are in the bank and financial sectors, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) off by 10% in 2023 and 13.5% in March alone. Services, capital goods, and tech are standout sectors so far, while energy, conglomerates, and the aforementioned financial sectors lag behind. One interesting nugget: the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas – with an apt ticker of KOLD—is up 139% year-to-date, as short sellers bet against ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL), which is off by 76% in 2023.

Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White compiled a list of the best-performing ETFs for the second quarter, going back 10 years. Notable standouts include Global X Social Media ETF’s (SOCL) 7.5% gain – which bodes well for META – and VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF’s (OIH) 20.5% average pop in the last decade. OIH is down 15% in 2023 so far. Continued outperformance from semiconductors in the second quarter could mean a big year ahead of the beleaguered sector, while XLF will surely embrace a 2% return in the second quarter of 2023 given what it’s just gone through.

Below is Schaeffer’s 2023 Stock Pick performance, roughly one quarter in. Note the outstanding gains from semiconductor equipment specialists Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) and ASML Holding (ASML), the former of which still has 17.6% of the stock’s total available float sold short. Retailer Macy’s (M) is asleep at the wheel but is one post-earnings bull gap away from relevance. Waste Management (WM) and AbbVie (ABBV) aren’t killing any portfolios, while MongoDB’s (MDB) consolidation has chart support in place. With half of that list comprised of software or chip stocks, continued outperformance from the tech sector will bode well for the final three-quarters of the year.

White also compiled a list of the best-performing stocks on the SPX in the last 10 years. One pattern stood out; airliners tend to stay grounded in the second quarter. Why that’s the case is puzzling, because logically, wouldn’t airline travel pick up when the weather gets warmer? Regardless, considering the 6.8% and 8.6% year-to-date returns of American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) stocks, potentially seasonal headwinds for airliners could be an intriguing storyline to watch in the next few months.

The shares of companies linked to former President Donald Trump are moving higher today, following news that a New York grand jury formally indicted Trump over a probe linked to hush money paid before his 2016 campaign. Digital World Acquisition Corp (NASDAQ:DWAC) and Rumble Inc (NASDAQ:RUM) are significantly higher shortly after the market's open.

Digital World Acquisition, the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), was last seen 11% higher to trade at $14.50. DWAC's 40-day moving average is keeping a lid on today's gains. Year-to-date, Digital World Acquisition stock remains down roughly 7.5%.

Rumble, the cloud service that hosts Trump's Truth Social, was up 4.3% at $9.74 at last check. Today's bull gap puts RUM in place to close above $9.50 for the first time since early March. Rumble stock just reclaimed support at its 140-day trendline, and now stands more than 62% higher in 2023.

Both equites are seeing an increase in options volume as well. For DWAC, options volume is running at 11 times the intraday average amount, led by the weekly 3/31 13-strike put where new positions are being opened. Rumble stock's options volume is at 29 times the amount typically seen at this point, with the weekly 3/31 10-strike call leading the charge.. 

BlackBerry Ltd (NYSE:BB) has reversed its premarket losses in a big way, up 14.6% at $4.55 at last glance. The software company's fourth-quarter revenue whiffed on estimates, while full-year guidance also disappointed. Nevertheless, TD Securities upgraded the stock to "hold" from "reduce," with a price-target hike to $4 from $3.75. 

On track for its third-straight weekly win, BB is looking to close out a winning quarter -- up 39.7% since the start of the year. Long-term pressure at the 160-day moving average now looms and appears to be keeping today's gains in check. 

Options bulls are chiming in after the earnings event, with 34,000 calls exchanged so far -- 13 times the intraday average -- in comparison to 8,874 puts. The weekly 3/31 4.50-strike call is the most popular, followed by the 4-strike call in the same series. 

All eight analysts in coverage still carry a "hold" or worse rating on BB, leaving plenty of room for optimism moving forward. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $4.77 is a chip shot away from current levels.