Energy stock Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC) is trading a new all-time high this afternoon, last seen 3.4% higher to trade at $134.14. Over the last 12 months, MPC added 88.6% and already stands more than 15% higher in 2023. Bullish traders shouldn't let their foot off the gas, though, as the stock flashes a historically bullish signal.  

The stock's highs come amid historically low implied volatility (IV) -- a bullish combination in the past. Per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have been four similar times during the past three years, when the equity was within 2% of a 52-week high while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) sat in the 20th annual percentile or lower. MPC's SVI of 34% that stands higher than just 14% of readings from the past year. 

The stock averaged a 5.5% return after 67% of those signals. What's more, the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at an elevated 80 out of a possible 100. This implies the equity has exceeded option traders' volatility expectations during the past year.

An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could also fuel tailwinds. The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.96 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands higher than 96% of annual readings. So while calls still outpace puts on an overall basis, the appetite for bearish bets has rarely been healthier over the last 12 months.

Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE:LVS) stock is up 3.1% to trade at $56.72 at last glance, earlier as at $58.20 -- its highest level since June 2021. Though the casino name issued a disappointing fourth-quarter report, but did make positive comments regarding its reopening in Macao, leading several analysts to chime in with bull notes. CBRE upgraded LVS to "buy" from "hold," while no fewer than five other analysts chimed in with price-target hikes. 

The majority of analysts are bullish on LVS already. Of the 18 analysts in coverage, 14 now carry a "buy" or better rating after today's upgrade, while the 12-month consensus price target of $61.47 is an 8.5% premium to current levels. 

Options traders are targeting Las Vegas Sands stock at four times the intraday average after the news. So far, 15,000 calls and 10,000 puts have been exchanged, with the April 55 put seeing the most activity, followed by the April 55 call. 

Though short interest has been unwinding, down 8% over the most recent reporting period, it still represents 5.1% of the stock's available float. In other words, it would take nearly three days to buy back these bearish bets, at LVS' average pace of daily trading. 

A host of U.S. economic data is due out today, with jobs data coming in at 186,000 -- its lowest level since April. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a better-than-expected 2.9% annual rate for the fourth quarter, while durable goods orders rose 5.6% in December. Plus, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $90.3 billion last month from the previous month's $83 billion. 

Stock futures are on the rise, with futures on the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) up triple digits, as Tesla's (TSLA) earnings report gives the tech-heavy benchmark a boost. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures are moving higher as well. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

• Behind Shopify stock's options surge. 
• The latest Schaeffer's Market Mashup features Seth Golden of the Finom Group.
• Plus, LEVI surges after earnings; CVX announces buyback plan; and PFE suffers a downgrade.

5 Things You Need to Know Today

1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw more than 1.2 million call contracts and 935,018 contracts traded on Wednesday. The single-session equity put/call ratio rose to 0.75 and the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.81.
2. Levi Strauss & Co (NYSE:LEVI) is up 6.1% premarket, after the company's fourth-quarter results beat and strong forecast. BofA Global Research hiked its price target by $1 to $18 as well. Heading into today, the retailer is down 21.4% year-over-year. 
3. Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) is down 1% before the bell, after the oil name reported a $75 billion stock buyback plan going into effect April 1st. The company also announced a dividend hike $1.51 from $1.42 per share. Year-over-year, the equity is up 35.1%. 
4. UBS downgraded Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) to "neutral" from "buy," with a price-target cut to $47 from $55, citing overzealous franchise estimates. PFE is down 1.8% in electronic trading, and already down 12% since the start of the year. 
5. Today will bring the durable, and core capital goods orders, as well as the Chicago Fed national activity index and new home sales data.

Plenty of Economic Data Out of Asia as Well

Asian markets were mixed today following the release of key economic data. Hong Kong’s Hang led the gainers, adding 2.4% with tech heavyweights leading the charge. In South Korea, fourth-quarter GDP experienced its first contraction in more than two years. Despite this, the Kospi tacked on 1.6%. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.1%, after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from last week’s meeting emphasized the need to keep its current monetary policy. The Shanghai Composite remains on holiday.

European stocks are higher this afternoon, with investors hopeful that a euro zone recession can be avoided. At last check, France’s CAC 40 is 0.8% higher and London’s FTSE 100 is up 0.3%. Germany’s DAX sports a fractional lead, despite improved business sentiment in the area.

UBS downgraded Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) to "neutral" from "buy" this morning, citing lower Covid-19 expectations. The analyst also slashed its price target to $47 from $55, noting the pharmaceutical giant's Covid estimates need to drop, while its broader pipeline upside is minimal in the near- to-mid-term. PFE was last seen 1.4% lower premarket in response. The stock has shed 12% already in 2023, and hasn't posted a weekly win in over a month. 

In the options pits, short-term options traders are operating with a put-bias. This is per PFE's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.01, which stands higher than 87% of annual readings. 

Now looks like a good time to speculate on PFE's next move with options. Pfizer stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 26% stands in the 13th percentile of readings from the past year, suggesting options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations right now.

Stocks managed to trim their losses this afternoon, with the Dow swinging into positive territory in the last hour of trading. The blue-chip index added nine points, but was off 460 points at session lows, after quarterly results from Boeing (BA) and Microsoft (MSFT). The latter's dismal guidance weighed on the tech sector, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both settling just below breakeven. Investors are also eyeing reports from Tesla (TSLA) and IBM (IBM) after the bell.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

• This aerospace stock drew a slew of bull notes.
• Bear signal flashing for Southwest Airlines stock.
• Plus, unpacking MSFT's revenue miss; 2 solar stocks downgraded; and SHOP options running red-hot.

5 Things to Know Today 

1. The Port of New York and New Jersey surpassed the nine-million cargo container mark for the first time, extending its streak of moving more trade volume each year since 2017. (CNBC)
2. President Joe Biden formally announced the U.S. will send Abrams tanks to aid Ukraine's fight against Russian invasion, but delivery will take time. (MarketWatch) 
3. Downbeat revenue forecast weighs on Microsoft stock.
4. Barclays downgraded 2 solar stocks amid headwinds.
5. Why options traders flocked to Shopify stock today.

Gold Prices Extend Win Streak

Oil prices inched higher, despite the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting a 500,000-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories for the week. March-dated crude added 2 cents to settle at $80.15 per barrel.

Gold prices settled higher as well to notch their fifth-straight daily win. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to slow the pace of rate hikes continued to blow tailwinds. February-dated gold rose $7.20, or roughly 0.4%, to settle at $1,942.60 per ounce.

Shopify Inc (NYSE:SHOP) is surging today, up 9.4% to trade at $46.73 at last check, after the company announced plans to increase its prices. Each plan's price is set to increase by roughly 33%, and will take effect for existing customers in April. 

Options traders are targeting Shopify stock after the news. So far, 184,000 calls and 105,000 puts have been exchanged, with overall volume running at triple the intraday average. The weekly 1/27 46-strike call is the most popular, followed by the 45-strike call in the same weekly series. 

SHOP surged on the charts yesterday before settling lower after it was rejected by the $50 level -- a trendline that acted as pressure last spring. Still, the equity is already up 35% since the start of 2023. 

Options bulls have been targeting the security over the last 10 weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), SHOP's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.42 ranks higher than 96% of readings from the past year. 

Ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report, shares of Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV) are fractionally higher, last seen up 0.3% to trade at $36.77. However, LUV is trading near a historically bearish trendline that could add pressure in the next month.

Specifically, the equity is within one standard deviation of its 200-day moving average. For the purpose of this study, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White defines that as the equity trading below the moving average for 80% of the time over the past two months, and closing south of the trendline in eight of the last 10 sessions.

According to White's data, five similar signals have occurred during the past three years. Southwest Airlines stock was lower one month later after every one of these signals, averaging a one-month loss of 10.1%. A similar move from the security's current perch of $36.65 would put LUV just above $116. 

Southwest Airlines is slated to step into the earnings confession before the open tomorrow, Jan. 26, and analysts are anticipating fourth-quarter losses of 9 cents per share. The stock has a history of negative post-earnings responses, finishing five of eight next-day sessions lower, including a 6.4% dip in July. LUV averaged a move of 2.6% over the last two years, but this time around the options pits are pricing in a bigger swing of 5.7%, regardless of direction.

Speaking of the options pits, traders have favored bearish bets lately. This is per Southwest Airlines stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.65 that stands higher than all other annual readings, per data at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). What's more, LUV boasts a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.13 that stands above 100% of readings from the past year.

Those looking to join these traders could do so for a bargain right now. This is per the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 35% that stands in the relatively low 14% annual percentile. This implies options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations at the moment.