Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 27, 2023 at 10:54 AM
  • Analyst Update

Pinterest Inc (NYSE:PINS) stock is enjoying a boost today, up 5.2% at $28.29 at last glance and earlier hitting a one-year high of $29.27. UBS upgraded the social media stock to "buy" from "neutral," with a price-target hike to $35 from $27, citing evidence of improving advertising trends after the company's partnership with LiveRamp. 

PINS has been climbing since its 200-day moving average caught a mid-March pullback. Today, the shares are gapping above familiar pressure at $27 and have built up a 19% lead in 2023. 

There is plenty more room for optimism amongst analysts, as 22 of the 35 firms in coverage carry a "hold" or worse rating. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $29.27 is just above current levels. 

So far today, 27,000 calls have been exchanged in the options pits, with is double the volume typically seen at this point. The weekly 3/31 30-strike call is the most active contract, with new positions opening there. 

These options are well-priced at the moment, too, as per Pinterest stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 49%, which ranks in the extremely low 4th percentile of annual readings. This means options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations at the moment. 

 

Published on Mar 27, 2023 at 10:19 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
 
Published on Mar 27, 2023 at 10:11 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Mar 27, 2023 at 9:27 AM
  • Monday Morning Outlook
 
Published on Mar 27, 2023 at 9:14 AM
  • Opening View

Stock futures are pointed higher Monday, set to build on last week's wins, with Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) futures up a comfortable 227 points. Regional bank stocks are higher across the board, after several positive updates out of the banking sector over the weekend.

Most recently, First Citizens Bancshares (FCNCA) agreed to purchase around $72 billion of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) assets, while a Bloomberg report indicated the U.S. government may be providing additional liquidity to struggling regional banks.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:.

  • Our latest Market Mashup podcast unpacks the 'zero-day option' craze.  
  • How did stocks secure weekly wins last week?   
  • Plus, upgrades and downgrades to watch; DISH eyes 14-year lows. 

Futures Mar27

5 Things You Need to Know Today

  1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw more than 1.1 million call contracts and 869,552 put contracts traded on Friday. The single-session equity put/call ratio fell to 0.73 and the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.79.
  2. Pinterest Inc (NYSE:PINS) is up 4.5% premarket, after an upgrade from UBS to "buy" from "neutral," with a price-target hike to $35 from $27. The social media stock sports a 13.1% lead in 2023, with support at its 200-day moving average keeping losses in check since the start of the year. 
  3. Blue-chip machinery giant Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) is down 1.2% in electronic trading, after Baird downgraded the stock to "underperform" from "neutral," with a price-target cut to $185 from $230. Year-to-date, Caterpillar stock is down 9.4%. 
  4. Dish Network Corp (NASDAQ:DISH) is off 2.5% before the bell, amid news that Dish investors who purchased the stock between Feb. 22, 2023 and Feb. 27, 2023 have filed a class-action lawsuit against the company. Should these losses hold, DISH will extend last session's 14-year low. 
  5. There is no economic data scheduled today. 

OV Buzz Chart March 27

Economic Data, Bank Buzz Overseas

Asian markets settled mostly lower on Monday, as concerns over the U.S. and European banking systems lingered. Also pressuring stocks was China’s industrial profit data, which fell 22.9% from January to February compared to the same time frame last year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng paced the laggards with a 1.8% loss, while China’s Shanghai Composite shed 0.4%. Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.2%, and Japan’s Nikkei was the sole winner with a 0.3% gain.

European markets are higher amid upbeat business sentiment in Germany, which in February saw its fifth consecutive monthly rise. Investors are also unpacking news the recent bank news. At last glance, the German DAX is 1.2 % higher, France’s CAC 40 is up 1%, and London’s FTSE 100 sports a 0.9% lead.

Published on Mar 24, 2023 at 4:31 PM
  • Market Recap

The Dow settled 132 points higher on Friday, impressively recovering from a triple-digit loss despite reignited bank sector fears following surging credit default swaps at Deutsche Bank (DB). The blue-chip index nabbed a weekly win alongside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both of which settled higher on the day as well. Elsewhere, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) had its worst week since March 18, 2022.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

Indexes March 242023

 nysenasdaq March 242023

5 Things to Know Today 

  1. Inflation-stricken customers looking for deals are turning to reselling platforms such as ThredUp (TDUP), leading big apparel retailers to seek partnerships. (CNBC)
  2. Former U.S. President and 2024 White House candidate Donald Trump suggested a New York Indictment could bring "potential death and destruction.(Wall Street Journal)
  3. Options bears blasted Deutsche Bank stock after its slide.
  4. Incyte stock sank after some bad news for its cancer drug
  5. Revisiting this week's highs and lows on Wall Street.

There were no earnings of note today.

Unusual Options Activity March 242023

Gold, Oil Prices Nab Weekly Wins

Oil prices finished lower on Friday, as investors once again worried about the health of banking systems in both the U.S. and Europe. May-dated crude, which is now the most active contract, shed 70 cents, or 1%, to close at $69.26 per barrel on the day, but was 3.5% higher for the week. 

Gold prices settled lower as well, but still scored their fourth consecutive weekly gain despite failing to conquer the $2,000 level. April-dated gold fell $12.10, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,983.80 per ounce on the day. For the week, it gained 0.5%.

Published on Mar 24, 2023 at 1:32 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis
  • Editor's Pick

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, March 19.

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is a diversified fund that covers a variety of industries in the banking realm, which – if you haven’t heard -- has seen copious amounts of attention over the past week and a half. Following the SVB Financial Group's (SIVB) collapse exactly two weeks ago, Wall Street has been a canister of chaos, with many investors once more looking to the government for solution and direction. While some worries have been stemmed, others have buoyed, though more ease came the morning of this writing, when First Republic Bank (FRC) received its own defibrillator.

No fewer than 11 bank names, including Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), rounded up $30 billion to aid their sector peer from joining SIVB in the mausoleum. However, the major indexes are eyeing yet another steep daily loss, while the XLF also sits deep in the red at midday.

Several technical indicators are making this pullback especially interesting for XLF. Back in 2008 amid the historic financial crisis, XLF calls were used as a hedge to the process of mass shorting finance stocks. The government subsequently placed a regulatory ban against short-selling finance stocks -- mostly out of fear that the practice was driving the steep price drops on the market. The ban was eventually lifted due to restrictive challenges that would exacerbate broader-market pullbacks. Below you can take a closer look at the movement of short interest (blue) vs. the stock’s share price (black).

 

XLFShortInterestChartCotw

Historically, the buy-to-open call/put ratio has soared simultaneously alongside shorting activity. However, per Schaeffer’s Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone, the ratio declined when the regulatory ban took place. As of March 13, the put/call ratio sits at 0.61, and the heavy selling on XLF has caused an increase in another favorite indicator of Schaeffer’s.

pcxlfcotw

The gamma-weighted Schaeffer’s Open Interest Ratio (SOIR) is unique because while the latter SOIR looks at open interest from the front three expiration months, the gamma-weighted scans open interest depending on the option’s gamma. For the gamma-weighted SOIR, we multiply the option’s gamma by its put open interest, and then we multiply it by the option’s call open interest. Dividing the gamma-weighted puts by the gamma-weighted calls gets us the gamma-weighted SOIR. This indicator gives higher importance to open interest that is near-the-money, and disregards open interest that is either deep in-the-money, or deep out-of-the-money.

GammaChartCotW

With that said, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is carrying a gamma-weighted SOIR of 2.64, which, per history, is a bullish indicator. In other words, if the stock rises, it makes a trader’s put options less likely of being in-the-money and decreases chances of having to pay out money at expiration. As the stock price goes up, the trader can cover their short position, which is a further tailwind for the stock and its sector peers amid a historically volatile period.

Published on Mar 24, 2023 at 1:09 PM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown

Wall Street kicked off the week on a high note, with the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) scoring its fifth win in six session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) went on to score its third triple-digit gain in four days, though things turned around midweek following a quarter-point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The Dow, Nasdaq and, S&P 500 Index (SPX) scored wins toward the end of the week as regional bank stocks continued to lag, and though they're lower today, all three benchmarks are pacing for weekly wins.

GameStop Posts Surprise Quarterly Profit

Multiple big-name companies chimed in with earnings this week. Meme stock darling GameStop (GME) surprised investors after reporting its first quarterly profit in two years, which helped GME log its best session since March 2022. Options traders were thrilled with Foot Locker's (FL) top- and bottom-line beats, while Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants (DRI) fell despite a beat-and-raise. Stronger solar module shipments helped Canadian Solar (CSIQ) topple expectations, and Accenture (ACN) trimmed its annual revenue guidance and announced a big round of layoffs.

Amazon.com Announces More Job Cuts

Accenture wasn't the only tech name that announced layoffs, as Amazon.com (AMZN) announced it will cut 9,000 jobs in two of its highly-successful division. Ford Motor (F) revealed financial details in its electric vehicle (EV) unit, including a $2.1 billion loss.  Nvidia (NVDA) was praised by analysts after revealing its artificial intelligence (AI) tool. The embattled bank sector saw some positive updates, with New York Community Bancorp (NYBC) agreed to buy deposits and loans from Signature Bank (SBNY), and PacWest Bancorp (PACW) announced its deposits movements stabilized

How to read Wall Street's "Fear Gauge"

The last week of March is jam-packed with pertinent economic data, while the earnings docket features a report from blue-chip Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA). In the meantime, Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone advises investors to stay cautious as the "fear gauge" approaches a crossroads. Plus, a bank exchange traded fund (ETF) flashing a short-term bullish signal, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. 

Published on Mar 24, 2023 at 11:52 AM
  • Midday Market Check
 
Published on Mar 24, 2023 at 11:43 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Several members of the energy sector are sliding alongside oil prices today. Renewed bank concerns are weighing on black gold, as well as demand prospects as the U.S. holds off on refilling its strategic reserve, which may take several years, according to U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm.

Marathon Oil Corp (NYSE:MRO) is down 1.9% at $21.57 at last glance, and on track for its third-straight daily loss after shares were turned away at the $23 level. Heading back toward this month's seven-month lows, the equity is down 20% year-to-date.

It's also worth noting that this month's slide sent MRO below its 320-day moving average for the first time since January 2021. The stock is overdue for a short-term bounce, however, as per its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 26.8, which sits in "oversold" territory. 

The shares of Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) are in the same boat, down 1.8% at $101.60. The stock's most recent pullback has it running into long-term support at its  250-day moving average. Year-over-year, XOM is up 21.9%, though it carries a 7.8% year-to-date deficit.

Options bears have been taking more of an interest in Exxon Mobil stock lately. The security's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.35 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 88% of readings from the past year. 

Published on Mar 24, 2023 at 11:05 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Mar 24, 2023 at 10:19 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Shares of German lender Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) are 6.6% lower this morning, after a spike in credit default swaps increased worries about the European baking sector's stability. Credit default swaps, or the cost of insuring the bank's debt against the risk of default, hit more than four-year highs.

Today's drop has DB trading just above $9, or their lowest level since October. A confluence of long- and short-term moving averages are weighing on Deutsche Bank stock, as it heads for its third-straight weekly loss. Year-to-date, the equity is down 16.2%.

Put traders are jumping in on the action, with 22,000 bearish bets crossing the tape already today -- 13 times the average intraday amount. The most popular contract is the April 9 put, while new positions are being opened at the weekly 3/24 9-strike put.

This preference for bearish bets is nothing new. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Deutsche Bank stock sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 12.72, which ranks higher than 87% of readings from the past year, showing puts outpacing calls and being picked up at a faster-than-usual rate. 

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