Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Nov 16, 2020 at 3:21 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks
Drilling down to today's options activity, 146,000 calls have crossed the tape, which is double the average intraday amount. However, the November 20 put is most popular, followed by the 25 call in the same monthly series, with new positions being opened at the former.
Published on Nov 16, 2020 at 11:08 AM
Updated on Nov 16, 2020 at 11:12 AM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks
Drilling down to today's options activity, 95,000 calls and 55,000 puts have crossed the tape, which is double the average intraday amount. The November 11 put is by far the most popular, followed by the 13 call in the same monthly series, with contracts set to expire by the end of the week.
Published on Nov 16, 2020 at 10:39 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks
In the options pits, there's a whirlwind of activity taking on both sides. In the first hour of trading, over 71,000 calls and 43,000 puts have already exchanged hands -- nine times the intraday average, with volume pacing in the 100th percentile of its annual range.
Published on Nov 16, 2020 at 10:05 AM
Updated on Nov 16, 2020 at 10:38 AM
  • Earnings Preview
  • Buzz Stocks

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL) is one of the world’s largest personal computer brands. In recent years, the company has taken several steps to integrate cloud computing as a major part of its business with the acquisitions of VMware, EMC (now known as Dell EMC), and Virtustream. Today, Dell Technologies is structured into three main businesses: VMware, Dell EMC, and Dell Client Solutions Group.

In a familiar theme of 2020, DELL tapped a four-year low of $25.51 on March 18 and a record high of $71.45 on Oct. 14. The stock is currently up only 33% year-to-date, and even despite a 5.4% November deficit, its 120-day moving average has stepped up and caught the pullback.

Two interesting options data points stand out. First is that puts are quite popular, per DELL's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.61 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands higher than 94% of readings from the past year, showing a penchant for long puts of late.

Secondly, now might not be a bad time to weigh in on these options, either. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 43% stands higher than just 16% of all other readings in its annual range, implying that options players are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. 

On the earnings front, Dell Technologies has beat expectations on three of its four most recent earnings reports. In the fourth quarter of 2019, Dell Technologies beat expectations by $0.13. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.75. In the first quarter of 2020, Dell Technologies narrowly missed its earnings expectations by a margin of $0.02. Despite missing expectations, the company increased its EPS to $2.00 in the first quarter of this year. In the second quarter of 2020, Dell Technologies reported a dropped EPS of $1.34, beating expectations by $0.42.

Most recently, when reporting on the company's fiscal third quarter, Dell Technologies beat its earnings target by 38%. The company reported an EPS of $1.92 instead of the expected EPS of $1.39. As for Dell Technologies' upcoming earnings report, the company is expected to drop its EPS down to $1.38. Dell Technologies is currently set to report earnings next week on November 24 after the close.

From a long-term investor perspective, is difficult to see much going wrong for Dell in the coming years. Although DELL currently sits near its all-time highs, the company has an extremely attractive forward price-earnings ratio of 9.76 and an amazing history of revenue growth. Further, Dell Technologies just completed its first profitable fiscal year since going public in January of this year.

However, a major downside risk for the company that should be considered when investing for the long haul is its large debt load, although a weaker-than-usual balance sheet is pretty normal for a company that’s still growing. In time, Dell Technologies has the potential to reduce its debt. For now, the company's prioritization of revenue and market-share growth is the solid focus if Dell Technologies plans to compete in the already-competitive technology sector. 

Published on Nov 16, 2020 at 10:33 AM
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Nov 16, 2020 at 10:25 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Stocks linked to a potential economic reopening are having their day in the sun today, bolstered by news that Moderna's (MRNA) experimental COVID-19 vaccine has proven to be 94.5% effective during a late-stage trial. One such stock is AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE:AMC), which is up an impressive 16.8% at $3.47 in a bid to dig itself out of penny stock territory. 

Last Friday, the shares were attempting to reverse course, snapping a four-day losing streak sparked by rejection at the 100-day moving average. The 20-day moving average, which AMC toppled during last Monday's surge, served as a net for said pullback. For the year, AMC is still down a little over 60%. 

This alarming year-to-date deficit has been enough to spook analysts, with seven "hold" ratings and two "strong sell" ratings on the books. What's more, the 12-month consensus price target stands at just $2.15 -- a 27.6% discount to last Friday's close. 

The stock has been heavily shorted of late, too. In fact, short interest rose 11.1% in the last two reporting periods, and now the 23.89 million shares sold short make up and eyebrow-raising 45.9% of the stock's available float, or two days to cover at AMC's average daily pace of trading. 

Published on Nov 16, 2020 at 7:23 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Today's Stock Market News & Events: 11/16/2020

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

The major U.S. market indexes ended last week in the black, as investors were bullish on stocks tied to a potential COVID-19 vaccine, and remained hopeful of a smooth economic recovery in 2021. The surge of U.S. coronavirus cases in kept a lid on gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI - 29,479.81) rose 399.6 points on Friday, and ended the week up 4.1%. The S&P 500 Index (SPX - 3,585.15) added 48.1 points and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC - 11,829.29) gained 119.7 points for the day on Friday. The former tacked on 2.2%, while the latter lost 0.6%, this week. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 23.10) fell 2.3 points on Friday, and closed out the week in the red with -7%.

Miss anything last week? Now is a great time to subscribe to 5-Minute Market Rundown, delivered every Saturday morning. It's a great resource if you miss a few days in the market or you just want to begin prepping for the coming week. Here is a copy of our latest issue.

Investors have a lot to look forward to this week with plenty economic data that needs to be unpacked While today will be relatively quiet, Tuesday will feature retail data as well as the import price and home builders indexes. Weekly jobless claims data is due out on Thursday, alongside the Philly Fed index the previous month's leading economic indicators. The week will close out quietly, as no economic data is on tap for the last day of the week.


For your convenience, we have rounded up the companies slated to release earnings today, November 16:


Aecom Technology Corp. (NYSE:ACM -- $49.51)
engages in designing, building, financing, and operating infrastructure assets worldwide. Aecom Technology will report its fourth-quarter earnings before the bell today.

Azul S.A. (NYSE:AZUL -- $16.04) provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Brazil. Azul S.A. will report its third-quarter earnings before the bell today.

Casper Sleep, Inc. (NYSE:CSPR -- $7.43) designs and sells sleep products. Casper Sleep will report its third-quarter earnings before the bell today.

JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD -- $92.08) operates as an e-commerce company and retail infrastructure service provider in the People's Republic of China. JD.com will report its third-quarter earnings before the bell today.

LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ:LX -- $8.08) engages in the provision of online consumer finance platforms. LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. will report its third-quarter earnings before the bell today.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW -- $258.70) provides cybersecurity platform solutions worldwide. Palo Alto Networks will report its first-quarter earnings of 2021 before the bell today.

Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN -- $62.35) operates as a food company worldwide. Tyson Foods will report its fourth-quarter earnings before the bell today.

Agora, Inc. (NASDAQ:API -- $39.00) provides Real-Time Engagement Platform-as-a-Service (RTE-PaaS). Agora will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN -- $120.76) is a software company that offers solutions to optimize asset design, operations, and maintenance lifecycle in industrial environments. Aspen Technology will report its first-quarter earnings of 2021 after the market closes today.

Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU -- $145.08) provides Internet search services in China and internationally. Baidu will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

GAN Limited (NASDAQ:GAN -- $17.94) provides enterprise Software-as-a-Service solutions for online casino gaming and online sports betting applications. GAN Limited will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

GDS Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:GDS -- $93.44) develops and operates data centers in the People's Republic of China. GDS Holdings will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ:IQ -- $26.70) provides online entertainment services. iQIYI will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

JOYY, Inc. (NASDAQ YY -- $94.12) operates a social media platform in the People's Republic of China and internationally. JOYY will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:MSGE -- $79.45) engages in the entertainment business. Madison Square Garden will report its first-quarter earnings of 2021 after the market closes today.

SmileDirectClub (NASDAQ:SDC -- $9.41) operates a teledentistry platform. SmileDirectClub will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM -- $34.65) operates as a travel service provider. Trip.com Group will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.


Looking ahead to tomorrow, Tuesday will be jam packed with retail, industrial production, capacity utilization, and business inventories data. Additionally, the import price and home builders indexes are on tap. All earnings and economic dates listed here are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Published on Nov 13, 2020 at 2:29 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

Welcome back to our weekly series, Schaeffer's Cannabis Stock News Update, where we recap what happened in the world of marijuana stocks last week and we will look ahead at the pot stocks to watch in the upcoming week.

Investor interest in the cannabis industry continues to grow and the leading players continue to break through legal barrier after legal barrier, especially following the 2020 election. Prior to last week's election, nine states and D.C. have legalized recreational marijuana, and 29 states have legalized medicinal marijuana. After the election, five more states joined in legalization of marijuana sales. More and more companies are starting to see the opportunity in cannabis selling, suggesting there are more marijuana initial public offerings (IPOs) on the horizon.

Here's a quick roundup of a major cannabis sector news last week (Nov. 9 through Nov. 13):

Akerna (NASDAQ:KERN)
, an enterprise software, the leading developer of the cannabis industry's first seed-to-sale enterprise resource planning (ERP) software,  announced its quarterly financial results for its quarter ending on November 12. The company's net loss was reportedly $4.7 million compared to a net loss of $2.3 million for the past quarter.

Canopy Growth Corp (NYSE:CGC), one of the most well-known and loved cannabis companies, received an analyst price target increase on November 10 from Cantor Fitzgerald, on optimism on Canadian cannabis growth opportunities. Then, on November 11, the company announced a product launch with known-advisor, Martha Stewart. Canopy Growth and Stewart plan to release the Martha Stewart CBD Wellness Gummies Sampler that is currently available for pre-order only.

Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARNA)
, a biotechnology company located in San Diego, reported its quarterly financial results for its third quarter of 2020 on November 9. Earnings per share (EPS) fell 15.8% over the past year to down to -$1.69. The reported EPS beat its estimate of -$1.87. Reported revenue decreased by 98.5% as compared to the third quarter of 2019, where the company missed its revenue expectations, too.

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NYSE:ACB), the Canadian company defining the future of cannabinoids worldwide, announced on November 10 that it will be filing a preliminary prospectus supplement relating to a proposed overnight marketed public offering of units of the Company for $7.50 per unit for total gross proceeds to the company of approximately $125 million.

cbdMD, Inc. (NYSE:YCBD), one of the leading cannabidiol (CBD) brands, announced on November 12 that it plans an expansion of its topical product line with the launch of ‘Premium Relieve’, a product that combines the pain-fighting power of Lidocaine with Superior Broad Spectrum CBD extracts – leading to total wellness in one unique topical formula.

FSD Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:HUGE), announced it quarterly earnings on November 12 for the third quarter ending on September 30. The company reported a net loss of $18 million, compared to $17 million reported in the third quarter of 2019.

HEXO Corp. (NYSE:HEXO),  announced on November 9 that Trent MacDonald’s security clearance request under the Cannabis Act has been granted by Health Canada. As previously announced, Mr. MacDonald had been appointed to the Company’s executive leadership team in the acting role of Chief Financial Officer, with his permanent role as Chief Financial Officer to commence upon the successful completion of Health Canada’s security clearance process for key personnel. With his security clearance having been granted, Mr. MacDonald now moves into a permanent role as Chief Financial Officer.

Organigram Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:OGI), the parent company of Organigram Inc, a leading licensed producer of cannabis, announced on November 10 that it has underwritten a public offering of units of the company whereby a syndicate of underwriters has agreed to purchase 32.5 million units from the Company for $1.85 CAD per unit, for total gross proceeds of $60.1 million CAD.

Sundial Growers Inc. (NASDAQ:SNDL), reported earnings on November 11 for its third quarter of 2020. Net loss was reported at $71.4 million CAD in the third quarter; adjusted EBITDA loss increased by 13% over the previous quarter to $4.4 million CAD from $3.9 million CAD.

Tilray, Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY), a global pioneer in cannabis research, cultivation, production, and distribution, reported quarterly earnings November 10. Net loss was reported at $2.3 million, compared to a net loss of $36.4 million reported in the third quarter of 2019.

Village Farms International, Inc.(NASDAQ:VFF), announced on November 12 that Village Farms’ wholly-owned subsidiary, Village Farms Clean Energy, Inc. (“VFCE”), has renewed and extended its existing contract with the City of Vancouver under which VFCE receives landfill gas captured by the City of Vancouver at the City’s landfill site in Delta, BC.

Zynerba Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZYNE), the leader in innovative pharmaceutically-produced cannabinoid therapies, reported financial results for the third quarter on November 9. The company's net loss for the third quarter of 2020 was $9.0 million.

Nearly 7 in 10 Americans now support legalizing marijuana nationwide, according to a Gallup poll released on November 9. Overall, 68% of respondents said they favor legalizing cannabis for adult use, which is “Gallup’s highest reading” since the firm started polling voters on the issue, it said. Last year, the survey found just 66% support for legalization.

Published on Nov 13, 2020 at 2:01 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks
So far, 18,000 calls have crossed the tape, which is six times the average intraday amount. Most popular is the November 55 call, followed by the 50 call in the same monthly series, with new positions now being opened at both.
Published on Nov 13, 2020 at 1:53 PM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown
 
Published on Nov 13, 2020 at 12:33 PM
Updated on Nov 13, 2020 at 1:07 PM
  • Earnings Preview
  • Buzz Stocks

AEO Has Recovered From Its Crash, Now What?

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) is a popular American clothing retailer based out of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The company has expanded its operations across the world over the past decade. The company is slated to report earnings later this month, after the market close on Tuesday, November 24. Currently, analysts estimate a quarterly earnings of The company is expected to report an earnings per share of $0.32.

American Eagle stock has just about recovered from its crash earlier this year. AEO stock is up a slim 2.5% year-to-date, but has more than doubled from its 16-year low of $6.54. A layer of support during its recent recovery has been the ascending 70-day moving average. 

American Eagle Outfitters has beat earnings expectations on half of its most recent quarterly earnings reports over the past 12 months. Most recently, the company beat its target by $0.13. American Eagle Outfitters reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.03 instead of the expected EPS of -$0.16 for its fiscal third quarter of 2020. Before that, the company had dropped its EPS massively when reporting on its fiscal second quarter of 2020. American Eagle Outfitters reported an EPS of -$0.84, missing expectations by a large margin of $0.54. In the first quarter of 2020, American Eagle Outfitters dropped its reported EPS to $0.37, beating expectations slightly by $0.01. Prior to the company's fiscal 2020 year, American Eagle Outfitters matched expectations at $0.48 per share reported for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2019.

Looking at options sentiment, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) show a preference for puts over calls during the last 10 weeks of trading. This per the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 4.93 ranks in the 92nd percentile of its annual range.

Prior to the pandemic, American Eagle Outfitters had consistently grown its revenue on an annual basis. Although the company has reported decreased revenue in the current fiscal year, American Eagle Outfitters has the potential to resume its growth. The company’s biggest fundamental issue is producing consistent profits that are reflected on the bottom line, which will be the key to its upcoming earnings report. If American Eagle Outfitters returns to profitability and reports its expected EPS of $0.32 or higher, AEO stock will likely be trading at an extremely attractive forward price-earnings ratio.

Published on Nov 13, 2020 at 12:21 PM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Bernie's Content

The Dollar Has a New Friend

by Bernie Schaeffer

As of this writing (Nov. 6), the only certainty wrought from the 2020 U.S. presidential election is that investors better become accustomed to more political gridlock amid a split government. Down-ticket Democrats did not fare as hoped in the Senate, so even should former Vice President Joe Biden enter the White House in January – as it appears likely – he's possibly entering with a Republican-controlled Senate and a Democrat-dominated House.

What does that mean for investors? Fiscal policy achievements may be hard to come by. Instead, look for the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world to pick up the slack – as they've done for the past four years – with quantitative easing and measures that keep financial markets stable. That's why these institutions are there in the first place. One victim of increased institutional exposure is the weight of currencies, which see their purchasing power plummet when Fed and central bank measures are implemented. With that in mind, let's take a look at the most controversial digital currency out there, bitcoin.

Regardless of opinion, bitcoin and cryptocurrency's impact on the world continues to be monumental. Not just its efficacy -- which will be debated for years – but because of its conceptual utility. It's no secret that central banks and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are in the slow process of developing their own private digital currencies. Twelve months ago, this news may have been met with an unenthused 'ho-hum.' But we are all enduring the ugliness of a pandemic with no end in sight, where citizens need direct government fiscal response. The ability to drop stimulus into bank accounts has become awfully appealing, given what we've gone through in 2020.

Bitcoin has other intriguing storylines as we enter 2021. Will regulations continue to be lifted? Will there still be a known familiarity with bitcoin, or in other words, will it continue to dominate the market space in casual investors' minds? Hedge funds are coming around. Paul Tudor Jones was the first well-known large hedge fund manager to enter the space back in 2017. Then, during the height of the pandemic, he added it and futures to his fund as a monetary hedge. And let's not forget, smaller shops have been able to enter a bit earlier as there are less reputational risks for them taking a gamble. On top of that, there are many crypto hedge funds that are solely dedicated to the space, although, they typically allocate to a variety of coins/tokens. Keep an eye on other hedge funds that are finally getting accustomed to the "fad," as well as those becoming more comfortable with what they know.

But of course there are still valid questions regarding bitcoin, and this is in no way an endorsement of the product. It remains, in the words of Schaeffer's Senior Market Strategist Matthew Timpane, a "quirky asset sometimes acts as a hedge and sometimes acts as a risk-on asset." Does this inconsistency change as more become familiar with it? After all, it's been more than a decade in its making, so the "newcomer" label ought to be shed soon if it wants to keep gaining traction on a global scale.

That's all speculation and conjecture for the future. In the now, there are correlations that help articulate bitcoin's role in the financial landscape. On Thursday, Nov. 15, bitcoin surged past the $15,000 level, taking part in the broad market Election week rally. This came even amid some negative publicity regarding a multi-million heist from a coin purse not used since 2015. Yet look at the chart below of bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, the S&P 500 Index (SPX), and gold. It would appear there’s a correlation between the SPX and bitcoin. But when the dollar becomes inverted, it tracks right along with the other three assets.

So does the dollar drive bitcoin? It's still too early to tell, but it does give investors something to track going forward. Gold of course will likely have its staying power as a hedge against currencies, however, they are already well represented by a significant call to put imbalance. The “less-popular” but the controversial cryptocurrency could soon be coming to the safe-haven asset's aid.

 

cotw nov 6

Subscribers to Bernie Schaeffer's Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, November 8.

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