AEO Has Recovered From Its Crash, Now What?

American Eagle Outfitters stock has nearly doubled from its recent 16-year low

Nov 13, 2020 at 12:33 PM
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American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) is a popular American clothing retailer based out of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The company has expanded its operations across the world over the past decade. The company is slated to report earnings later this month, after the market close on Tuesday, November 24. Currently, analysts estimate a quarterly earnings of The company is expected to report an earnings per share of $0.32.

American Eagle stock has just about recovered from its crash earlier this year. AEO stock is up a slim 2.5% year-to-date, but has more than doubled from its 16-year low of $6.54. A layer of support during its recent recovery has been the ascending 70-day moving average. 

American Eagle Outfitters has beat earnings expectations on half of its most recent quarterly earnings reports over the past 12 months. Most recently, the company beat its target by $0.13. American Eagle Outfitters reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.03 instead of the expected EPS of -$0.16 for its fiscal third quarter of 2020. Before that, the company had dropped its EPS massively when reporting on its fiscal second quarter of 2020. American Eagle Outfitters reported an EPS of -$0.84, missing expectations by a large margin of $0.54. In the first quarter of 2020, American Eagle Outfitters dropped its reported EPS to $0.37, beating expectations slightly by $0.01. Prior to the company's fiscal 2020 year, American Eagle Outfitters matched expectations at $0.48 per share reported for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2019.

Looking at options sentiment, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) show a preference for puts over calls during the last 10 weeks of trading. This per the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 4.93 ranks in the 92nd percentile of its annual range.

Prior to the pandemic, American Eagle Outfitters had consistently grown its revenue on an annual basis. Although the company has reported decreased revenue in the current fiscal year, American Eagle Outfitters has the potential to resume its growth. The company’s biggest fundamental issue is producing consistent profits that are reflected on the bottom line, which will be the key to its upcoming earnings report. If American Eagle Outfitters returns to profitability and reports its expected EPS of $0.32 or higher, AEO stock will likely be trading at an extremely attractive forward price-earnings ratio.

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