Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 2:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
It's been a tough month for Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), with shares of the tech stock down about 6.4% since March 31. Today, the shares jumped to an intraday peak of $112.65 out of the gate -- after the company said it is throwing its hat in the chatbot ring via its Messenger app -- but have since retreated as volume has increased. At last check, FB stock was off 3.4% to trade at $106.85. Still, calls are trading at twice the average intraday volume.

Drilling down, the most popular FB option is the April 110 call. Data confirms traders are initiating long positions here, meaning they're betting on FB to rebound above $110 by week's end, when front-month options expire.

Further down the line, FB's next most popular options are the April 111, 112, and 113 calls, and it looks like traders are buying to open positions here, too. In other words, a number of speculative players have high hopes for the tech stock through the end of this week.

Bulls have been active on FB for some time, though. Specifically, 2.14 FB call options have been bought to open for every put option during the last 10 days, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). 

Aside from the options crowd, FB is also a favorite among analysts. In fact, there's just one analyst out of the 28 that cover the stock that doesn't recommend buying it. Moreover, FB's average 12-month price target of $134.64 stands in all-time-high territory. 

As mentioned, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) has struggled from a technical standpoint in recent weeks. But, of course, the shares have outperformed on a long-term basis, almost doubling in value over the past two years. Now, FB's 80-day moving average is coming into play again, a trendline that sent the shares soaring back in March.

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Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 2:23 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Earnings Preview
Earnings season got off to a sluggish start, but is picking up steam thanks to better-than-expected results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). Financial stocks will again be in focus tomorrow, as Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) and Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) are set to report earnings before the open. Below, we'll take a closer look at how options traders have been positioning themselves ahead of BAC and WFC earnings.

  • BAC is up 4.1% at $13.82, as a sector-wide rally offsets reported deficiencies in the firm's "living will." From a longer-term perspective, today's gains represent a dramatic change of pace for the bank stock. Year-to-date, shares of the financial firm have lost nearly 18%.

    Ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report, BAC options are trading at twice the normal intraday rate, with calls tripling puts. The most active strike is the near-the-money April 14 call, where at least some buy-to-open activity is detected, per International Securities Exchange (ISE) data -- hinting at bullish expectations. Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 5.1% single-day post-earnings swing for Bank of America Corp, roughly doubling its usual move. Looking back eight quarters, the stock has finished the post-earnings session lower 75% of the time. If this happens again, a capitulation among today's option bulls could exacerbate BAC's losses.

  • While WFC's "living will" wasn't up to snuff, either, the bank stock is currently 2.9% higher at $49.14. However, the shares are approaching their descending 80-day moving average, which rejected a breakout attempt late last month. Today, put options are running at quadruple the usual intraday clip, and outstripping calls. In fact, the three most active WFC options are puts, including the April 48, January 2017 50, and January 2018 50 strikes. In recent weeks, however, traders have bought to open 1.65 calls for every put across the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX).

    In terms of Wells Fargo & Co's history in the earnings confessional, the stock has given up ground in the ensuing session after six of the last eight reports. On average, the shares post a one-day move of 1.4% in either direction. This time around, though, the options market is pricing in a 3.7% single-session swing for WFC.
Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 3:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Commodities
Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX) is burning a path higher, as mining stocks rally on upbeat Chinese export data that suggests demand for commodities could rise. Also sparking sector gains are ongoing developments in a Brazilian corruption scandal, which could result in President Dilma Rousseff's impeachment. With FCX 5.6% higher at $11.01, options traders are making noise.

At last check, FCX call options are being exchanged at 1.7 times the usual intraday rate. The two most active strikes are the April 10.50 and 11 calls, where data suggests some buy-to-open activity is transpiring. If this is the case, the buyers think the stock will extend its momentum through the end of this week, when the front-month options expire.

This signals quite the reversal for FCX options traders. During the past two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open 1.26 puts for every call. The corresponding put/call volume ratio rests just 4 percentage points from an annual high.

Now may be an opportune time to purchase premium on short-term FCX options. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 100 suggests the shares have tended to make outsized moves in the past 12 months, relative to what the options market has priced in.

Technically speaking, today's rally is the continuation of a 2016 trend higher for Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX). Since panning a 15-year low of $3.52 in late January, the mining stock has more than tripled in value. As it currently stands, FCX is just an hour away from notching its highest settlement price of 2016.

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Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 3:03 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News

Gold stocks are slipping today, after strong export data out of China lifted the strength of the dollar and diminished demand for "safe haven" investments. But overall, the precious metals sector has been having a fantastic year. In fact, it is one of the best-performing sectors at the moment, with every one the stocks under our "precious metals" umbrella above their 80-day moving averages. The average year-to-date stock return for precious metals is 90.8%, according to Schaeffer's Senior Equities Analyst Rocky White, and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 63% so far in 2016 and just off an annual high. Below we'll take a look at two gold stocks that are taking a breather today, but could have room to run in the event of a sentiment shift: Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) and Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:KGC).

NEM is down 3.4% at $29.59 today, but is ahead 70% year-to-date after hitting a two-year high of $13.25 on Tuesday. The stock saw support from its 10-week moving average in recent weeks, as it made its most recent trek higher, and now sits comfortably above the $28 level, which has stifled rally attempts since late 2013. NEM also outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 58 percentage points over the past three months and now boasts a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 70 -- ont he cusp of overbought territory.

Analysts appear wary of NEM, with five rating the security a "hold," compared to five "strong buy" ratings. Short sellers have been backing off recently, however. Short interest on NEM fell by 30% during the most recent two-week reporting period and now accounts for less than 2% of the stock's available float.

Despite recent outperformance in the shares, option traders are still betting against NEM. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.51 is higher than 87% of all readings in the past year. Should gold prices resumes their upward trend, an unwinding of this bearish sentiment could propel Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) toward new multi-year highs.

Meanwhile, KGC is 2.6% lower at $4.35, after the shares hit a two-year high of $4.49 earlier in trading. Like NEM, KGC is taking a respite from a huge rally, which started in late January. The shares have added nearly 140% in 2016, outperforming the SPX by a mind-blowing 175 percentage points over three months. And KGC's 14-day RSI of 83 puts it deep into overbought territory.

Out of 15 analysts following the KGC, nine rate it a "hold" or worse, though a few have upgraded their opinions amid the stock's rally. Meanwhile, near-term traders have lately been far more put-heavy than usual, with Kinross Gold Corporation's (USA) (NYSE:KGC) Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.02 ranking higher than 99% of the past year's readings. An exodus of option bears could usher KGC higher.

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Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 3:07 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
Analysts are weighing in on tech stocks Mobileye NV (NYSE:MBLY) and Fitbit Inc (NYSE:FIT), as well as healthcare services firm Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE:THC). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on MBLY, FIT, and THC.

  • MBLY has been soaring since hitting a record low of $23.57 on Feb. 9 -- up 69.2% -- thanks in part to rumors of a potential Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) partnership. Today, in fact, shares of MBLY are 2.4% higher at $39.87, despite a price-target cut to $11 at Citron Research, which called MBLY "the most outrageously overpriced, overhyped semiconductor stock ever." Option traders, meanwhile, have shown a distinct preference for puts over calls on Mobileye NV. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MBLY's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 3.31 sits in the 98th annual percentile.

  • Raymond James gave its two cents on FIT, saying the "wearable market continues to show signs of healthy growth" -- an outlook that is also helping to lift GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) today -- and maintaining its "outperform" rating. Along similar lines, Citigroup upped its per-share earnings and revenue estimates for Fitbit, while Pacific Crest bumped its first- and second-quarter unit sales forecasts for the company's Blaze fitness watch. Against this backdrop, shares of FIT are up 12.7% at $17.07, and on track for their best daily close since Jan. 25. These aren't the only analysts to wax optimistic on Fitbit Inc this week, though, and should the shares extend this positive price action, there's plenty of room for upgrades. In fact, 10 out of 21 brokerages maintain a lukewarm "hold" rating on FIT.

  • Susquehanna boosted its rating on THC to "positive" from "neutral," and lifted its price target to $38 from $23, citing increased confidence in management. This upbeat outlook has sent THC soaring 8.4% to $31.48 -- and back into the black on a year-to-date basis. Options traders, meanwhile, have kept the faith on THC, per the stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 11.82 -- in the 96th annual percentile. Additionally, Tenet Healthcare Corp's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.37 sits lower than 93% of all comparable readings taken in the past year.
For other stocks in analysts' crosshairs, read Analyst Upgrades: Activision Blizzard, Inc., Dunkin Brands Group Inc, and ArcelorMittal SA and Analyst Downgrades: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, Clovis Oncology Inc, and Sprint Corp.
Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 9:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on video game guru Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATVI), doughnut dealer Dunkin Brands Group Inc (NASDAQ:DNKN), and steel stock ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) (NYSE:MT). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on ATVI, DNKN, and MT.
 
  • Stifel bumped its price target on ATVI up to $40 from $35, representing record-high territory for the stock. The bullish note has helped the shares gain 0.7% in electronic trading, after they settled yesterday at $33.48 -- down 13.5% in 2016. Activision Blizzard, Inc. is lower on a month-to-date basis, too, which is par for the course, but it could take a bounce from its supportive 20-day moving average. Meanwhile, the brokerage crowd is stacked in ATVI's favor, with 14 of 15 analysts doling out "buy" or better endorsements, and not a single "sell" assessment to be found.
  • DNKN saw its rating upgraded to "outperform" from "buy" at CLSA. This is far from surprising, considering the stock has rallied over 14% year-to-date at $48.72. That said, not everyone's buying the hype. Dunkin Brands Group Inc's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 28.15 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) represents an annual high. Plus, the stock's short-interest ratio registers at a sky-high 12.70, meaning it would take over two weeks for short sellers to cover their positions. If DNKN keeps charging higher, a capitulation among these bears could produce tailwinds.
  • MT is pointed 6.6% higher in pre-market trading, after Credit Suisse upped its opinion to "outperform" from "neutral," while bumping its price target to $7.50. Not everyone's in the stock's bullish corner, though. Short interest spiked over 35% during the most recent reporting period, and short-term options traders have rarely been more put-focused in the past year -- based on ArcelorMittal SA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.49, which ranks in the 90th annual percentile. The stock's technical performance doesn't warrant such skepticism, though. MT has soared 61.4% year-to-date to trade at $5.19, as commodity stocks have been all the rage.
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Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 9:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
Stocks are pointed higher, on upbeat Chinese export data and a solid start to bank earnings from financial giant JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). Meanwhile, among other equities in focus today are coal interest Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), and biotech stock Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX).

  • JPM is 2.2% higher in pre-market trading after reporting first-quarter profit above expectations, despite a decline in revenue from its trading division. The stock closed at $59.28 on Tuesday, off more than 10% so far in 2016. And while analysts have been mostly optimistic -- 13 out of 18 rate JPMorgan Chase & Co. a "buy" or better -- recent put buyers may be nervous today. Should today's projected price move pan out, JPM may have to contend with overhead resistance at its 80-day moving average -- a level the shares haven't toppled on a closing basis yet this year.

  • BTU was halted in electronic trading after plummeting as much as 72% on news that the company has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Peabody Energy Corporation, which settled at $2.07 Tuesday, has been on a five-year spiral since topping the millennium mark in early 2011, and hit a record low of $2.00 in mid-March. Bearish traders both in and out of the options pits have been quick to target the long-term laggard, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.85 is higher than 89% of all comparable readings in the past year. What's more, short interest currently accounts for over 63% of BTU's available float.

  • VRX is set to drop 2.8% at the open as traders respond to news that a large bondholder issued a notice of default after Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc missed the initial deadline to file its annual financial report. The stock ended Tuesday 2% higher at at $31.99, after the company was granted an extension to file its report, but remains 39% lower year-to-date. While short sellers have been piling on amid the equity's recent swoon, there's still plenty of room on VRX's bearish bandwagon. In fact, it would take less than one session to cover all of the stock's shorted shares.
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Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 9:52 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on China-based online retailer Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), biotech stock Clovis Oncology Inc (NASDAQ:CLVS), and telecom issue Sprint Corp (NYSE:S). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on BABA, CLVS, and S.

  • CLVS is tanking again after being dealt a blow from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and hitting a three-year low yesterday, down 11.8% at $12.57. Making matters worse, JPMorgan Securities lowered its assessment of the stock to "neutral" from "overweight," and slashed its price target to $15 from $42 -- following the lead of Mizuho Securities, which cut its price target to $15 from $21. Although CLVS is on the short-sale restricted list, bears ought to be celebrating today, as 30% of Clovis Oncology Inc's float is sold short -- representing nearly two weeks' worth of trading, at CLVS' typical daily volumes. Likewise, the stock's options pits remain tilted in a bearish direction.
  • S saw its rating cut to "underweight" at Pacific Crest, which said the telecom's "2016 guidance should not be taken at face value," adding "the company has a long turnaround ahead of it." Sprint Corp is off 3.7% at $3.36, extending its year-to-date deficit beyond 7%. Pacific Crest is far from the only brokerage firm seeing dark clouds ahead for the shares. Of the 18 analysts following S, 16 have handed out "hold" or worse ratings. On top of that, nearly 31% of the stock's float is sold short, and would take more than two weeks to cover, at its average daily trading levels.
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Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 10:34 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Indexes and ETFs
U.S. stocks are trading higher this morning, thanks mainly to better-than-expected export data out of China. While stocks across the board are getting a lift, those with exposure to China are faring even better. Case in point, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ProShares Ultra FTSE China 50 (XPP) and Direxion Daily China Bull 3x Shares ETF (YINN) are both enjoying huge days. 

XPP has jumped 6.8% to $45.75, earlier hitting a year-to-date high of $46.18. On a longer-term basis, the ETF has struggled in sympathy with Chinese stocks, giving back over half its value during the past 12 months. While the fund is still below its year-to-date breakeven level, it's performed much better recently, gaining 51.6% since hitting an all-time low of $30.17 on Feb. 11. 

Meanwhile, YINN is up 10.5% at $15.63, putting the fund on pace for its highest close since early January -- similar to the Shanghai Composite. YINN touched record lows in mid-February around $8.50, but has battled back, with today's gains setting the ETF up for its first close above the 100-day moving average since late June. 

Obviously, both the ProShares Ultra FTSE China 50 (XPP) and Direxion Daily China Bull 3x Shares ETF (YINN) have a long way to go to make up for their dreadful long-term performances. Both ETFs could remain in focus through week's end, with China set to unveil first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures tomorrow. 
Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 10:36 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
A number of biotech stocks are moving sharply today. While some are sliding lower, others are swinging higher, including drugmakers Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ARWR) and Repros Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:RPRX). Below, we'll take a look at the drug data boosting ARWR and RPRX, and how options traders have been placing their bets on the biotech stocks.

ARWR has popped 9.3% at $5.75, after the drugmaker said it will present "promising data" on its hepatitis B treatment at the International Liver Congress. Earlier, the stock was as much as 16.3% higher. As it is, the shares are now at their highest point since early January.

This ought to be a boon to bullish options traders. During the past 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open more than 11 Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc calls for each put. The corresponding call/put volume ratio of 11.29 ranks in the 63rd percentile of its annual range.

RPRX has boomed to an intraday gain of nearly 26% to trade at $1.03, thanks to positive clinical trial data for the biotech's menstrual bleeding drug, Proellex. However, this headway is small beans in the grand scope of things, considering the shares were on the doorstep of double-digit territory one year ago.

In the options pits, short-term traders have been more call-skewed than usual toward Repros Therapeutics Inc. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.20 indicates call open interest is five times put open interest among contracts expiring in the next three months. What's more, the SOIR sits in the low 29th percentile of all readings taken in the past year.

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Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 11:06 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Indicator of the Week
GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) is flying high today, with some speculating the stock could be in the midst of a short squeeze. Nevertheless, GPRO stock is up 12.3% at $13.11, with both stock and option volume docked in the 98th percentile of their annual ranges.

By the numbers, roughly 7.3 million GPRO shares and 41,285 options have traded so far. Call options are clearly outpacing put options, by a ratio of nearly 3-to-1. Most active is GPRO's April 12 call, where it looks as if new positions are being purchased. If this is the case, call buyers expect GPRO to extend today's rally north of $12 through week's end -- when front-month options expire.

This skew toward calls is nothing new in GPRO's options pits, though. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 2.27 GPRO call options have been bought to open for each put option over the past 10 sessions. What's more, this ratio ranks higher than 63% of all comparable readings taken in the past year.

Echoing this is GPRO's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.66 -- in the 16th percentile of its annual range. In other words, short-term speculators are more call-heavy than usual toward the stock.

As indicated, though, GPRO has a hefty amount of its shares are sold short. In fact, short interest surged 14.6% in the last two reporting periods, and now accounts for nearly one-third of the stock's available float. It would take almost a week to cover these shorted shares, at GPRO's average daily pace of trading. As such, it's possible that some of the recent call buying is a result of shorts hedging against any upside risk.

Technically, GPRO has been a long-term laggard, down 80% since hitting an annual high of $65.49 in early August. More recently, the equity's 40-day moving average has worked as a magnet for the shares since late March, while today's surge could find headwinds near the equity's overhead 80-day moving average. GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) hasn't toppled the latter of these trendlines in intraday action since Aug. 19.

GPRO daily chart

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Published on Apr 13, 2016 at 11:18 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity

Biotech stock Medivation Inc (NASDAQ:MDVN) is up 7.4% at $49.12 today, bringing the shares into the black on a year-to-date basis for the first time in 2016, on reports that the company has rebuffed a takeover bid from French drugmaker Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY). MDVN has recently been working to defend itself against such approaches, as the company recently reiterated that it doesn't plan to sell itself, but according to Bloomberg, SNY may still be considering a hostile bid. MDVN shareholders are excited, and in the options pits, the action is already heating up.

MDVN options are changing hands at five times their typical intraday pace, and calls outnumber puts nearly 10-to-1, with more than 6,700 traded so far. In fact, call volume is on pace to hit an annual high.

Of the 10 most active options today, nine are calls, with the majority belonging to the April series, which expires this Friday. It looks like some traders may be buying to open the April 50 call -- the most active option thus far -- betting that MDVN will rally above the round-number $50 level by the end of the week, when front-month options expire.

Today's preference for calls is just an extension of what MDVN has seen lately. The stock has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.40 -- meaning calls more than double puts among options expiring in three months or less. What's more, this ratio ranks lower than 99% of all readings in the past year, and total MDVN call open interest is already at an annual high.

Technically, MDVN has put on an impressive performance in recent months, nearly doubling in value since hitting a two-year low of $26.41 in early February. And on its recent journey north, the equity has been enjoying support from its 30-day and 200-day moving averages. It look as though analysts are expecting more upside, too -- of the 14 brokerage firms providing coverage, 10 call Medivation Inc (NASDAQ:MDVN) a "strong buy," without a "sell" rating in sight.

MDVN Daily Chart

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