Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 19, 2016 at 1:03 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News

Steel and aluminum stocks -- not unlike silver producers -- are on the rise today, thanks to upbeat analyst attention, and after United Steelworkers (USW) filed an official complaint over vast aluminum imports "and failed trade policies that have decimated American manufacturing." The International Trade Commission is overseeing an investigation on the matter, and is due to make a preliminary ruling by June 17. Three stocks breaking out today -- in spite of lingering skepticism -- include Century Aluminum Co (NASDAQ:CENX), Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA), and AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE:AKS).

  • CENX is up 12.7% at $8.36, and has added 88.7% year-to-date atop support from its rising 10-week moving average. Options on the equity are light in absolute volume, but at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio sits at a whopping 32.29 -- in the 91st percentile of its annual range. Today, CENX calls are trading at 17 times their average intraday rate. There appears to be some buy-to-open activity at the May 9 and 10 calls. That means buyers are betting that Century Aluminum Co (NASDAQ:CENX) will extend its rally above the $9 or $10 level before May 20, when the front-month options expire. But all three analysts providing coverage on the stock maintain a lukewarm "hold" rating. And short interest, though down nearly 7% during the most-recent two-week reporting period, still accounts for about 23% of CENX's available float. CENX is due to report quarterly earnings next Thursday. A positive earnings surprise could translate into a round of upgrades, or a mass exodus of option bears or lingering shorts.
  • AA has added 2.1% to trade at $10.31 -- a year-to-date high -- still enjoying support above its 40- and 200-day moving averages, and extending its rally above the round-number $10 level. Like CENX, AA has seen short interest fall slightly in recent weeks, but these bearish bets still account for 12.3% of the stock's total float, or more than six sessions' worth of pent-up buying power, at AA's typical daily pace. Sentiment from the options pits has been especially pessimistic lately, with the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX now parked at an annual peak of 1.04. And unwinding of bearish sentiment in light of the stock's continued strong performance could help drive the shares of Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) even higher.
  • AKS has been on a tear lately, and is ahead 4.1% at $5.09 -- its highest point since June -- bringing its 2016 lead to an astounding 127%. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 133 percentage points over the last three months, yet 11 out of 13 brokerage firms rate it a "hold" or worse, with a consensus 12-month price target of just $3.40. Today, however, Barclays raised its price target on AKS to $3 from $2 citing rising steel prices. Short interest also represents over 21% of AKS' available float. And in the options pits, the stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.84 is higher than 88% of all readings in the past year. Today, AKS options are crossing the tape at three times their usual intraday pace, with 17,000 puts traded so far -- well over twice the number of calls. The company will step into the earnings confessional next Tuesday, and the stock has enjoyed a positive one-day post-earnings swing in six of the last eight quarters -- including the last five in a row. A positive earnings surprise could send bears to the exits and help AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE:AKS) in its quest for annual highs.

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Published on Apr 19, 2016 at 2:20 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity
Viacom, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:VIAB) options pits are in full swing today, as the entertainment production stock plummets ahead of an expiring carriage deal with DISH Network Corp (NASDAQ:DISH). If a new pact isn't reached by tomorrow, VIAB channels such as Comedy Central and Nickelodeon will no longer be accessible to DISH customers.

Diving right in, Viacom stock has plunged 7.6% to trade at $35.90, and options traders haven't been shy about placing bets -- particularly on the call side of the fence, where intraday volume is at seven times the norm. The most active VIAB strike is the out-of-the-money June 42.50 call, where International Securities Exchange (ISE) data confirms sell-to-open action. By writing these calls to open, the traders are counting on the $42.50 level to stymie any advances by the shares through June options expiration.

Historically, VIAB hasn't toppled that level in over two months. As such, delta on the call is just 0.15 -- down from 0.29 at Monday's close -- suggesting a less than 1-in-6 chance the option will be in the money at expiration.

While the aforementioned options traders are bearish, the brokerage bunch is still banking on a breakout. VIAB's consensus 12-month price target of $46.43 stands at a 29% premium to current levels, and in territory explored during just one session so far this year.

Looking ahead, Viacom, Inc. (NASDAQ:VIAB) is gearing up to report earnings next Thursday morning. Looking back four quarters, these events have tended to favor the bears. Specifically, the stock has sunk three times in the session after its last four reports, with an average return of negative 9.7%.

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Published on Apr 19, 2016 at 2:27 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview
Blue-chip earnings are in focus this week, with Dow stocks Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS)Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) all higher in the wake of their firm's results. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM), however, is not faring so well. Looking ahead, Dow components American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) and The Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO), as well as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier ARM Holdings plc (ADR) (NASDAQ:ARMH) will report first-quarter earnings tomorrow. Here's a quick look at AXP, KO, and ARMH ahead of their respective reports.

Put buyers have been active on AXP in the lead up to tomorrow night's earnings report. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.24 ranks in the 78th annual percentile. Similar to other Dow stocks, though, AXP's near-term options are relatively inexpensive, even with the uncertainty surrounding the scheduled event. Specifically, AXP's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 23% sits below 70% of all comparable readings taken in the past year -- meaning the equity's short-term options are pricing in low volatility expectations at the moment.

On the charts, American Express Company has tacked on 26% since matching its four-year low of $50.27 in February -- including today's 1.1% pop to $63.28. However, the shares are running headlong into their overhead 120-day moving average, a trendline that's ushered AXP lower since January 2015.

KO, which will unveil its earnings report tomorrow morning, has seen an influx of call buying in recent weeks, per its 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 6.25 -- in the 98th percentile of its annual range. What's more, the stock's SVI of 15% ranks higher than just 28% of all similar readings taken in the past 12 months, meaning KO's short-term options are relatively affordable at current levels.

However, this optimism isn't shared among the brokerage bunch, with the majority of analysts maintaining a "hold" or worse suggestion toward the stock. This skepticism comes despite KO's spectacular 14.3% year-over-year advance to $46.46 -- fresh off an April 11 record high of $47.13. Should The Coca-Cola Co turn in a well-received earnings report, a round of upgrades could send the shares back into uncharted territory.

Option traders are more put-skewed than usual toward ARMH. Not only does the stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 4.22 arrive in the 77th annual percentile, but its Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.83 rests just 2 percentage points from a 52-week peak. In other words, short-term speculators have rarely been as put-heavy toward the equity as they are now. It's more of the same today, with puts crossing at eight times the average intraday pace, and buy-to-open activity detected at the front-month May 39 put.

Ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report, the stock is up 3% at $42.07 -- paring a portion of Monday's AAPL-related losses. Longer term, ARM Holdings plc has spent 2016 wallowing under the weight of its 100-day moving average, down 7% on the year.
Published on Apr 19, 2016 at 2:31 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • By the Numbers
  • Intraday Option Activity
Tech stock QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. The stock hasn't enjoyed a positive post-earnings session over the past eight quarters, however, including drops of 8.3% and 15.3% in January and November, respectively. Nevertheless, QCOM calls are trading at twice the average intraday pace in today's session. 

Drilling down, QCOM's May 52.50 call is stealing the show, with nearly 13,400 contracts on the tape. (As a point of reference, the next most active strike has seen fewer than 1,200 options traded.) However, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) suggests the majority of the activity taking place here is of the sell-to-open variety, meaning traders are betting on $52.50 to act as a short-term ceiling for QCOM through the close on Friday, May 20, when front-month options expire. 

While long calls have been more popular than long puts on an absolute basis during the past two weeks at the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), put buying has gained momentum. QCOM's 10-day put/call volume ratio across these exchanges has jumped to 0.73 from 0.51 in the past two weeks, with the current ratio ranking in the 74th percentile of its annual range. 

The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) also reveals a put-skewed picture. At 1.10, QCOM's SOIR ranks in the 93rd percentile of its annual range, telling us that traders targeting options that expire within three months have been extremely put-focused. 

Elsewhere, short interest on QCOM is negligible, but there are some skeptics in the analyst community. While 11 brokerage firms rate QCOM a "strong buy," 10 say it's just a "hold," and two others deem it a "strong sell." 

QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) has been quiet on the charts in 2016, managing a gain of 1.8%. It's more of the same today, with the stock trading within a 63-cent range, last seen at $51.77. And while QCOM has followed the broader stock market higher since its February lows, the shares remain stuck below their 10-month moving average, which has been pushing them lower since late 2014. 

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Published on Apr 19, 2016 at 3:04 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Indexes and ETFs
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Commodities
Precious metal stocks have been breaking out in what's been a banner day for the commodities and mining sectors. Gold stocks have certainly been no exception, as evidenced by huge gains for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bulls 3X Shares (NUGT). What's more, options traders have been enticed by the upward momentum, with intraday volume humming along at a faster-than-usual clip for both gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Drilling into the action, GDX has soared 5.5% to trade at $23.39, and earlier hit an annual high of $23.44. Puts are running at more than double the expected intraday clip, and handily outstripping calls. The May 20 put is the most active strike, and it looks like one trader bought to open a block of 20,000 contracts just before noon for $0.23 each -- resulting in an initial cash outlay of $460,000 (premium paid * number of contracts * 100 shares per contract). By purchasing these puts, the options player is counting on GDX to retreat below the round $20 level by front-month expiration, at the close on Friday, May  20 -- or risk losing the entire premium paid.

Meanwhile, NUGT has jumped 16% to trade at $90.45, and its calls are crossing the tape at triple the average intraday rate. In the lead is the weekly 4/22 95 strike. It appears traders are selling to open these out-of-the-money call options, expecting the ETF's upward movement to peter out south of $95 by this Friday's close, when the weekly series expires.

On the other hand, buy-to-open activity is detected at the weekly 4/22 90- and 4/29 110-strike calls. By purchasing these calls, options traders foresee NUGT toppling the strikes by the respective weekly expiration dates, at the end of this week and next.

Based on price action alone, it's not surprising to see bullish betting on the gold ETFs, as they've been crushing it in 2016. Year-to-date, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has rocketed 70% higher, while the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bulls 3X Shares (NUGT) has nearly quadrupled in value.

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Published on Apr 19, 2016 at 3:10 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
Analysts are weighing in on oil-and-gas stocks Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN)Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK), and Range Resources Corp. (NYSE:RRC). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on DVN, CHK, and RRC.

  • DVN has tacked on 5% to trade at $33.60, after Morgan Stanley boosted its rating to "overweight," and Susquehanna raised its price target on the stock to $39 from $30. Today's move has Devon Energy Corp back in the black year-to-date, and going head-to-head with its declining 160-day moving average -- a level the shares haven't cleared on a closing basis since last June. Option traders appear to be betting on more gains. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.04 ranks higher than 92% of the past year's readings -- and represents a significant shift in sentiment over recent months.
  • A price-target hike to $5.50 from $4.50 at Susquehanna has helped boost CHK 3.2% to $6.15, bringing its year-to-date lead to nearly 37%. In fact, the stock is now on track to close above its 200-day moving average for the first time since September 2014. Still, the shares could stand to benefit from more bullish attention among the brokerage bunch, as just 5% rate Chesapeake Energy Corporation better than a "hold." While option traders have been fairly optimistic lately, puts are outstripping calls today by a 3-to-1 margin, with huge volume and buy-to-open action spotted on CHK's weekly 4/22 6-strike put.
  • RRC is up 3.2% at $38.26, after Susquehanna increased its price target to $43 from $40 -- following the lead of numerous analysts in recent weeks. Range Resources Corp. is up 55.5% in 2016, and recently broke through long-standing resistance at its 200-day moving average. But more than half of the brokerage firms following the equity rate it a "hold" or "strong sell." And RRC has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.69 -- in the 86th percentile of its annual range -- indicating near-term open interest levels are more put-heavy than usual.
For other stocks in analysts' crosshairs, read Analyst Upgrades: International Business Machines Corp., Pacira Pharmaceuticals Inc, and Panera Bread Co and Analyst Downgrades: Netflix, Inc., Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, and Illumina, Inc.
Published on Apr 19, 2016 at 8:39 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Overseas Trading
After a brutal start to the week, stocks in Asia bounced back as oil prices stabilized on the back of an oil-worker strike in Kuwait, after selling off Monday as crude exporters failed to reach an output freeze agreement. Japan's Nikkei led the way higher, gaining 3.7% on a weaker yen -- its biggest single-day percentage gain since Feb. 2. Also, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso stoked the bullish flames, expressing a willingness to "take various measures if there are what we see as sharp rises or sharp falls in the yen."

Elsewhere, an oil-induced rally among energy stocks helped drive other Asian markets higher, including China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which rose 0.3% and 1.3%, respectively. Rounding things out, South Korea's Kospi edged 0.1% higher, after the central bank left the base interest rate unchanged.

European stocks are also getting a lift amid the rebound in crude futures, led by strength in mining stocks. France's CAC 40 was last seen 1.1% higher, as Danone and L'Oreal charge higher on well-received earnings reports. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX has soared 2.4% after the April ZEW survey showed a big upswing in investor sentiment, and London's FTSE 100 has picked up 0.3%.

overseas stocks April 19

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Published on Apr 19, 2016 at 9:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on streaming video provider Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), fertilizer firm Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (USA) (NYSE:POT), and genetic analysis stock Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on NFLX, POT, and ILMN.

  • NFLX is off 8.5% ahead of the open after the company's first-quarter earnings release. While quarterly profit beat forecasts and revenue met expectations, Netflix, Inc.'s current-quarter subscriber growth outlook disappointed. NFLX has added close to 34% in the past 12 months to trade at $108.40, but is now set to open back below the century level. This potential price action is likely to disappoint bullish options traders. Making matters worse, analysts are trimming their expectations in a hurry. No fewer than seven brokerage firms cut their price targets on NFLX this morning, though the lowest of which -- from Baird -- came in at just $108. 
  • POT is so far unchanged in electronic trading, despite a bearish note from Barclays. The brokerage firm dropped the stock's rating to "underweight" from "equal weight," while reducing its price target to $14 from $16. The shares have been moving steadily lower for the past year, hitting a nine-year low of $14.64 in January, and closing Monday at $16.76. Most other analysts share Barclays' grim outlook. Specifically, 13 of 18 covering analysts call Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (USA) a "hold" or worse. 
  • ILMN is getting crushed in pre-market trading, down 19.2%, after the company's preliminary first-quarter revenue results came in well below the Street's expectations. At $178.13, Illumina, Inc. is a far cry from its all-time high of $242.37, seen last July, but the stock just yesterday managed its first close atop its 200-day moving average this year. Regardless, BofA-Merrill Lynch cut its rating on ILMN to "neutral" this morning, while Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Cowen, and Leerink all lowered their price targets. The pending sell-off should benefit options traders at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), however. The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio across these exchanges sits at 1.26, in the 69th percentile of its annual range. 
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Published on Apr 18, 2016 at 8:49 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Overseas Trading
Asian stocks got slammed by plunging crude futures, after a meeting of global oil producers -- minus Iran -- in Doha, Qatar, ended without an agreement to freeze oil production. In Japan, the Nikkei slumped 3.4%, as the yen hovered near an 18-month high against the U.S. dollar and aftershocks from Thursday's earthquake prompted companies such as Toyota to curb production. China's Shanghai Composite, meanwhile, gave back 1.4%. Elsewhere, Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.7%, while South Korea's Kospi lost 0.3%.

Declining oil prices are weighing on European markets at midday. Additionally, chipmakers are trading lower, amid reports that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) could continue to reduce iPhone production due to slumping sales. At last check, the French CAC 40 is off 0.4%, while the German DAX and London's FTSE 100 are flirting with 0.3% drops.

Overseas Trading April 18

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Published on Apr 18, 2016 at 9:15 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on media conglomerate Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS), gold stock Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:KGC), and telecom stock T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on DIS, KGC, and TMUS.
 
  • DIS is edging higher in electronic trading, after Pivotal Research last night raised its outlook on the stock to "buy" from "hold," while increasing its price target to $121 from $104 -- just below the stock's all-time high of $122.08 from August. Also helping Walt Disney Co is news that the company's "The Jungle Book" brought in nearly $104 million in its opening weekend. DIS will now look to break out from the $96-$100 range that's contained the shares since early March, after settling at $98.59 on Friday. If the shares do break out, more bullish notes could be forthcoming, since the majority of analysts rate DIS a "hold" or "strong sell." 

  • After notching a notable milestone last weekKGC is looking to extend this momentum on the heels of a price-target hike to $5 from $4 at Barclays, which represents two-year-high territory. The 2016 rally in gold prices has helped the stock double in value year-to-date, last seen at $4.25. In the meantime, options bulls have been all over the gold stock. Specifically, 19.77 Kinross Gold Corporation calls have been bought to open for every put during the past 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) -- a ratio that arrives in the 87th annual percentile. 

  • At $39.29, TMUS has gained over 18% since hitting a year-to-date low of $33.23 in early February, thanks in part to support from a key trendline. Barclays is eyeing more gains for the stock, raising its price target to $49 from $45 -- though the analysts also raised their expectations for rivals Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) and AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T). If T-Mobile US Inc can keep its momentum on the charts, it could further benefit should short sellers throw in the towel. That is, almost 20 million TMUS shares are sold short, equaling a week's worth of buying power, at average daily volumes. 
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Published on Apr 18, 2016 at 9:44 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
U.S. stocks are lower this morning, as crude futures slide after a disappointment from Doha. Among equities in focus today are toymaker Hasbro, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAS), financial stock Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and streaming video provider Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX).

  • MS is up 0.5% at $25.89, after reporting first-quarter earnings above analyst estimates. However -- similar to several of its sector peers -- Morgan Stanley saw its profit fall by 53% from the same period last year, due to slumping trading. Longer term, the shares are off 19% in 2016, and have been stuck trading in the $23.50-$26.50 range since late February. But option traders have been looking for a breakout -- the stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits higher than 91% of the past year's readings, at 2.07.
  • NFLX is down 2.2% at $109.08, on news that Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) will offer a standalone video streaming subscription service for $8.99 per month. Currently, AMZN offers video streaming only to members of its Amazon Prime service. Heading into today's trading, Netflix, Inc. had been on upswing that began in early February, up 39.4%. Like option traders, the brokerage bunch has been largely optimistic of late, with 15 out of 26 calling NFLX a "buy" or better. Elsewhere, the company is due to report first-quarter earnings after the close tonight.
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Published on Apr 18, 2016 at 10:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on medical device stock TransEnterix, Inc. (NYSEMKT:TRXC), biotech stock Chiasma Inc (NASDAQ:CHMA), and refining specialist Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:CLMT). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on TRXC, CHMA, and CLMT.

  • TRXC is down 8.6% at $4.95 this morning, after BTIG lowered its opinion on the stock to "neutral." This is a change a pace for the shares, with anticipation for a crucial Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decision driving TransEnterix, Inc. to annual highs earlier this month. The stock closed Friday at $5.42, after almost tripling the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) three-month return, on a relative-strength basis. As such, BTIG's bearish note is a rare development on Wall Street. In fact, every other brokerage firm covering TRXC recommends buying it. 
  • The FDA is not ready to approve CHMA's oral treatment for acromegaly -- as many suspected. More specifically, the FDA noted in its response letter that Chiasma Inc did not provide enough evidence to gain approval, and would need to perform another clinical trial. The stock has already lost over 60% of its value this morning to hit $4.03, earlier touching a record low of $3.93. What's more, William Blair just reduced its outlook to "market perform," while Oppenheimer weighed in overnight by slashing its price target by $34 to $9. More bearish notes could be on the horizon for CHMA, since its average 12-month price target stands at $30.25. 
  • CLMT has also lost roughly half its value this morning to hit an all-time low of $4.90, last seen at $5.56. The sell-off comes after the company on Friday announced a dismal first-quarter outlook and a suspended dividend. No fewer than six brokerage firms have responded with negative notes, including RBC. The brokerage firm reduced its rating on Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. to "sector perform" from "outperform," and cut its price target to $7 from $22, while saying the company's cash distribution likely won't come back until 2018. Meanwhile, CLMT's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.53 sits in the top percentile of its annual range, meaning short-term speculators are more put-heavy now than they've been at any other point during the past year. 
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