Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Oct 9, 2015 at 2:08 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Options volume is going through the roof on Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc (NYSE:LL) this afternoon, after the company agreed to a $10 million settlement with the Department of Justice. The news is also lifting the shares, which were last seen 17.8% higher at $19.35.

Diving into the details, 21,000 calls are on the tape -- outpacing LL's normal afternoon rate by 19 times. At least one group of speculators is counting on eleventh-hour gains, buying to open the near-the-money weekly 10/9 20-strike call. In other words, these buyers anticipate LL will settle above the round $20 level at tonight's close, when the series expires. However, even if it doesn't, the most the speculators stand to lose is the initial premium paid.

Today's penchant for long calls reflects the withstanding trend in the options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), LL has amassed a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 0.71 -- higher than 71% of comparable readings from the prior year.

However, it's possible some of these call buyers have another strategy in mind, given the stock's 71% year-to-date loss. With 45.3% of LL's float sold short -- representing 10.5 times the average daily trading volume -- these traders may be short sellers hedging their bearish bets with calls.

Meanwhile, analysts have taken a decidedly skeptical stance on Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:LL). Ten of 12 brokerages rate the stock a "hold," and its consensus 12-month price target of $15.89 resides below the current perch.
Published on Oct 9, 2015 at 2:48 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity
EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC) is up nearly 2% at $27.70, amid rumblings that a Dell buyout offer is expected early next week, and could be worth upwards of $30 per share. Option traders are responding to the hype, with calls crossing the tape at roughly triple the expected afternoon rate.

Looking more closely, the most active strike is the now in-the-money October 27 call. Based on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.73, those purchasing new positions here expect EMC to topple breakeven at $27.73 (strike plus VWAP) by next Friday's close, when front-month options expire. Meanwhile, longer-term bulls may be buying to open the January 2016 28-strike call in the hopes of even greater upside over the next several months.

Today's preference for calls over puts is par for the course, as far as EMC traders are concerned. During the last two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the hardware stock has seen over four calls bought to open for every put. The resultant call/put volume ratio of 4.18 ranks near the top quartile of its annual range.

Echoing this, EMC Corporatin's (NYSE:EMC) Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) registers at 0.36, with call open interest nearly tripling put open interest among options with a shelf-life of three months or less. More significantly, this SOIR sits below 94% of comparable readings from the prior year, suggesting the penchant for short-term calls over puts is historically pronounced.
Published on Oct 12, 2015 at 12:13 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview

Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) kicked off third-quarter earnings season in lackluster fashion. However, there are plenty more reports set to pour in, including those from blue chips Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). Below, we'll take the pre-earnings temperature on JNJ, INTC, and JPM.

  • Drugmakers are in the spotlight today, following a number of fundamental developments -- as well as a round of price-target cuts from Jefferies. For JNJ, this resulted in a downwardly revised price target to $87 -- territory last visited by the stock as it was tumbling toward a two-year low of $81.79 on Aug. 24. More recently, JNJ was seen lingering near $96.02 -- down 8.2% on the year.

    In the options pits, optimism has been growing in the weeks leading up to tomorrow morning's report. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio has jumped to 1.43 from 0.38 over the past two weeks -- and is currently ranked in the 65th annual percentile. Simply stated, calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip. Looking back over the past eight quarters, meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson has averaged a single-session post-earnings move of 1.3% -- slightly less than the 1.9% swing the equity's near-term at-the-money (ATM) straddle is pricing in for this time around. Should this action resolve to the downside, a capitulation among option bulls could translate into headwinds.

  • INTC will tell all in the earnings confessional tomorrow evening, and ahead of the event, the stock is down 0.1% at $32.12. Longer term, INTC has rallied 29.2% since hitting an annual low of $24.87 in late August, and as such, the security's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed Friday at 70 -- in overbought territory. In other words, a near-term pullback may have been in the cards.

    Nevertheless, option traders have been taking a glass-half-empty approach ahead of earnings. At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, Intel Corporation's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.52 rests higher than 83% of all similar readings taken in the past year. Meanwhile, pre-earnings volatility expectations are high, per the security's 30-day ATM implied volatility of 28.6% -- in the 77th annual percentile. Specifically, based on INTC's near-term ATM straddle, the market is expecting a 4.5% swing -- more than the 2.8% single-session post-earnings move INTC has averaged over the last eight quarters.

  • In its previous eight trips into the earnings limelight, JPM has averaged a single-session post-earning move of 1.7% -- below the 2.7% swing the stock's near-term ATM straddle is projecting for this time around. Similar to the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), pre-earnings speculation has been cautious toward JPM. In fact, the stock's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.79 rests above 63% of comparable readings taken in the past year.

    On the charts, JPM has moving steadily lower since topping out at a record high of $70.61 on July 23, down 12.7%. Today, the stock is off 0.5% at $61.61, and struggling to find a foothold atop its 320-day moving average. This trendline has served as both support and resistance for JPMorgan Chase & Co. since late August.
Published on Oct 12, 2015 at 1:29 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
Analysts are weighing in today on drugmaker Aquinox Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:AQXP), online marketplace Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY), and natural gas concern Cheniere Energy, Inc. (NYSEMKT:LNG). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on AQXP, ETSY, and LNG.

  • Unlike some larger pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY) and Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK), AQXP is higher this afternoon -- along with Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:REGN) --  after Cowen and Company raised the stock's price target to $24 from $14 with an "outperform" rating. The move comes in the wake of upbeat data on AXQP's experimental bladder pain drug, AQX-1125, and has helped the shares 12.4% higher to $14.50. Technically, AQXP has kicked sideways since gapping higher in the middle of August, though the stock has more than doubled on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, short sellers have stocked up on bearish bets against Aquinox Pharmaceuticals. Despite dropping by nearly 58% during the past two reporting periods, nearly 18% of the equity's float is sold short. Analysts check in on the other end of the sentiment spectrum, as four of the five tracking AQXP rate it a "strong buy." 

  • ETSY is 8.4% lower at $12.69, after Monness Crespi Hardt initiated coverage with a "sell" rating and a $10 price target -- which represents all-time-low territory. Shares of Etsy Inc have struggled mightily since their mid-April debut, shedding nearly two-thirds of their value since their IPO day high of $35.74. The road ahead doesn't look easy, either, as fellow online retailer Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) recently announced that it would launch Handmade at Amazon. This announcement sent option bears flocking to ETSY, and short interest represents nearly five weeks of pent-up buying demand, at the stock's average pace of trading.
  • LNG received a price-target cut to $64 from $90 at Barclays (part of a group of moves it made on several energy names), sending the stock 3.9% lower to $50.97. Technically, shares of Cheniere Energy, Inc. have dropped roughly 28% in 2015, despite endorsements from activist investor Carl Icahn. It appears that bullish option players may have turned a blind eye to this performance, as LNG's 10-day call/put volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits at 2.83 -- higher than 78% of the readings taken in the past year. Capitulation from this bullish bunch could put further downside pressure on the shares. 
For other stocks in analysts' crosshairs, read Analyst Upgrades: Tesla Motors Inc, Raytheon Company, and Exxon Mobil Corporation and Analyst Downgrades: FireEye Inc, Marvell Technology Group Ltd., and Merck & Co., Inc..
Published on Oct 12, 2015 at 2:03 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stocks On the Move
Shopify Inc (NYSE:SHOP) is sinking in tandem with business partner Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), down 16.9% at $30.78. Exacerbating the losses is Facebook Inc's (NASDAQ:FB) foray into e-commerce, as the company is currently testing a "shop" section -- hinting at potential competition for Shopify. Amid SHOP's drop -- which has it on the short-sale restricted list -- options volume has accelerated.

Currently, the stock's options are changing hands at triple the expected intraday rate. Digging deeper, the November 30 put is the most active strike, and all indications point to buy-to-open activity. In other words, these traders foresee SHOP extending its decline south of $30 by the close on Friday, Nov. 20, when back-month options expire. On the charts, the shares haven't breached this level since mid-September, and delta on the out-of-the-money strike is negative 0.41 -- indicating a 41% chance the put will be in the money at expiration.

Taking a step back, traders in recent weeks have been buying to open calls over puts a breakneck pace. SHOP's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio checks in at a top-heavy 9.61 -- with nearly 10 calls bought to open for each put. Two weeks ago, this ratio was a much tamer 1.08, with bullish and bearish bets initiated at roughly the same pace.

There are two potential reasons for the uptick in bullish wagering. For one, Shopify Inc (NYSE:SHOP) had been a technical beast prior to today -- outpacing the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by close to 32 percentage points during the past month. For another, short interest exploded 55.5% higher during the latest reporting period, and represents over one-tenth of the equity's total float. In other words, some of these short sellers may have purchased long calls to hedge against an extended ascent in SHOP shares.
Published on Oct 12, 2015 at 2:10 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Most Active Options Update
The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are e-commerce concern Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) and social network Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB).

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BABA has tacked on 2.3% today to trade at $70.30 -- paring its year-to-date deficit to 32.4% -- following a big stimulus-related boost from overseas and a positive mention in Barron's. Although overall volume -- as expected -- is light, option traders are showing a preference for calls over puts in today's trading, with a number of speculators buying to open the October 70 call. In other words, these traders are hoping for a bigger rally through week's end, when front-month options expire.

More broadly speaking, it's been put buyers who have been active in BABA's options pits in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.85 sits just 3 percentage points from a 52-week peak.

Receiving notable attention has been Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's October 60 put, which has seen 26,257 contracts cross the tape in the last two weeks. According to the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, nearly 10,400 new positions have been purchased here since late July, meaning traders have been betting on BABA to be sitting south of $60 at this Friday's close. Regardless of where the security settles, though, the most the put buyers stands to lose is the initial premium paid.

FB, meanwhile, is up 1.3% at $94.40, on news the firm could soon be encroaching on the e-commerce scene by encouraging users to shop directly from its app. However, today's upside is being capped in the $94.50-to-$95 region -- an area that has contained FB's advances for most of the past few months.

Nevertheless, calls are outpacing puts by a more than 2-to-1 margin in today's trading, with buy-to-open activity detected at the stock's October 94 and 95 strikes. By initiating new positions here, speculators expect FB to continue moving higher through Friday's close. Unfortunately, the 95 strike is already home to a lofty accumulation of calls in the front-month series, and could contain the stock in the near term.

From a wider sentiment perspective, option traders have been accumulating long puts relative to calls at a faster-than-usual clip. The stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.59 ranks in the 92nd annual percentile. Echoing this is Facebook Inc's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.71, which sits higher than 67% of all similar readings taken in the past year. Simply stated, short-term traders are more put-heavy than usual toward FB.
Published on Oct 12, 2015 at 2:30 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity
The shares of social networking names Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP) and LinkedIn Corp (NYSE:LNKD) are notably lower this afternoon, presumably in sympathy with sector peer Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR). In fact, YELP -- along with this TWTR partner -- has landed on the short-sale restricted list, sending bears to the options pits, while LNKD's recent crop of option buyers is likely cheering today's dip. (This social name, on the other hand, is bucking the bearish trend.)

YELP was last seen 9.7% lower at $22.48, bringing its year-to-date deficit to nearly 59%. Prior to today, the stock had underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by roughly 25 percentage points during the past three months.

As such, it's no surprise to find most analysts in the bears' corner. Currently, 22 out of 29 brokerage firms maintain "hold" or worse opinions. On the flip side, YELP sports a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.79 on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This reading stands higher than 99% of all others from the past year, pointing to a much healthier-than-usual appetite for YELP calls over puts during the past 10 weeks -- which has encompassed bouts of takeover chatter.

However, option traders today are singing a much more bearish tune. Intraday put volume is running at six times the norm, with what appears to be buy-to-open action at the weekly 10/23 22-strike put. By purchasing the puts to open, the buyers expect YELP to breach $22 by the close on Friday, Oct. 23, when the weekly series expires.

It's also worth noting that near-term traders are paying a relatively pretty penny to gamble on Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP). The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 72% ranks int he 79th percentile of its annual range, suggesting the equity's short-term contracts are pricing in higher-than-usual volatility expectations.

Meanwhile, LNKD's downside momentum is tamer, with the shares 1.5% lower at $192.76. The stock now sports a year-to-date loss of 16.1%, with recent rebound attempts stalling in the $200 region -- home to LNKD's 20-week moving average.

As alluded to earlier, LNKD's options crowd is likely cheering the stock's struggles. The equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio on the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX sits at 1.01 -- higher than 80% of all other readings from the past year. Likewise, LNKD's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.09 rests in the 98th percentile of its annual range, suggesting near-term traders have rarely been more put-heavy during the past year.

On the other hand, LinkedIn Corp (NYSE:LNKD) could be vulnerable to downgrades, should bullish analysts abandon ship. In fact, 20 out of 27 analysts offer up "buy" or better opinions, with not a "sell" in sight.
Published on Oct 14, 2015 at 10:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades

Analysts are weighing in on camera fanatic GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO), drilling firm Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG), and financial behemoth JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on GPRO, RIG, and JPM.

  • Plain and simple, GPRO has been terrible on the charts recently. The shares have lost more than half their value year-to-date, and just touched an all-time low of $26.68 as the downward momentum continues. Contributing to the sell-off, Piper Jaffray cut its outlook to "neutral" from "overweight," and its price target to $25 from $54. The shares have fallen 2.3% to $27.34 in response. It's likely short sellers will continue to pile on. Short interest ballooned more than 70% in the two most recent reporting periods. Now, more than 36% of GoPro Inc's float is controlled by these bears. 

  • Despite a downgrade to "reduce" from "neutral" at Seaport Global Securities, and a price-target reduction at J.P. Morgan Securities to $11 from $13, RIG is 1% higher at $15.73 this morning. This is a rare feat of strength from a security that was off 15% year-to-date coming into today. Shifting gears, skepticism abounds on the Street. None of the 18 covering brokerage firms rate Transocean LTD a "buy," and its average 12-month price target of $11.95 is below current levels.

  • JPM is off a bigger-than-anticipated 2.5% this morning at $60.08, after the firm missed third-quarter earnings expectations. Responding to the lackluster quarterly report, Bernstein and KBW each lowered their price targets, to $71 and $74, respectively. On the other hand, Nomura bumped its price target to $72 from $70. Even though JPMorgan Chase & Co. has lagged behind the S&P 500 Index (SPX) during recent months, there's still a clear call bias among short-term speculators. This is evidenced by the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR), which stands at 0.42 -- only 8 percentage points from an annual low. 
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Published on Oct 14, 2015 at 10:17 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
U.S. benchmarks are slightly higher this morning, as Wall Street weighs the latest batch of quarterly earnings and retail sales. Today's equities in focus are financial issue Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), Dow tech concern Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), and flash memory firm SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK).

  1. BAC is 2.2% higher at $15.86, after announcing a larger-than-expected third-quarter profit. Bank of America Corp's third-quarter profit of 37 cents per share topped Wall Street's expectation for a profit of 33 cents per share. Pessimism had been building in the option pits ahead of the company's earnings, and the stock's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume of 0.30 ranks in the 94th percentile of all similar readings taken during the past 52 weeks. It certainly appears that analysts have turned a blind eye to the stock's poor performance (dropping 11.3% since the end of July), as BAC garners 11 "strong buys" and three "buys" out of 18 total rankings. Downgrades from this bullish brokerage bunch could result in further downside pressure. 
  • AAPL is 1.4% lower this morning at $110.28, after a jury found that the company infringed on a University of Wisconsin tech patent. Apple Inc. now faces up to $862 million in damages after the U.S. District Court in Madison rejected its claims that the patent was invalid. The suit concerns technology that the company used in its latest batch of iPhone and iPad processors. Although the stock has backed off a bit from its late April all-time high of $134.54, it has found a measure of support from its 20-month moving average. Bears rule the day in the option pits, as AAPL's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.76 ranks higher than 94% of the readings taken in the past year. What's more, AAPL's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.72 ranks in the 97th percentile of its annual readings. Capitulation from this bearish gathering could result in positive pressure on the shares.

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Published on Oct 14, 2015 at 11:06 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
Biotech stocks started hot out of the gate, with the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) up as much as 2.9% -- and creeping into positive year-to-date territory. At last check, IBB has pared the majority of its earlier gains, thanks to broad-market headwinds. Nonetheless, here's a closer look at three drugmakers making moves this morning.

Intrexon Corp (NYSE:XON) shot as much as 11% higher earlier, but was last seen up 3.7% at $33.25. The move follows a rather tepid note from BofA-Merrill Lynch, which initiated coverage with a "neutral" rating and a $35 price target. Despite being up 76% year-over-year, the technical outperformer has recently struggled to break north of its descending 20-day moving average.

That hasn't stopped traders at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) from betting bullishly on XON. In fact, the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio sits at a top-heavy 20.03 -- with 20 calls bought to open for each put. What's more, this ratio ranks in the 84th percentile of its annual range. Echoing this, XON's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.31 is lower than 99% of comparable readings taken in the previous 12 months.

RXi Pharmaceuticals Corp (NASDAQ:RXII) popped 8.3% earlier, but has reversed sharply lower to trade at $0.58 -- down 3.4%. As such, the stock is sitting in a roughly 64% year-to-date hole. Not surprisingly, the technical laggard has been plagued by short sellers. During the latest reporting period, short interest on RXII spiked 15%, and now represents 11.8% of its float -- or more than a week's worth of trading, at typical volumes. Further reflecting the Street's negative stance toward the equity, its SOIR of 0.27 rests a mere 8 percentage points from a 52-week high.

After being initiated with a "buy" rating and a $3 price target at H.C. Wainwright, Prima Biomed Ltd. (NASDAQ:PBMD) is up 0.8% at $1.23. Specifically, the brokerage cited the drugmaker's "potential to be the first to bring a new class of immunotherapies to market." Today's advance is just more of the same for a stock that's tacked on 84% in 2015.

Short interest, meanwhile, has been ramping up on PBMD -- growing over 26% during the last two reporting periods. However, at the security's typical daily volume, it would take just over one session to repurchase these positions.
Published on Oct 14, 2015 at 11:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
A handful of equities are making big moves today, and TripAdvisor Inc (NASDAQ:TRIP) is one such name. The shares are up 21.8% at $81.20, after the company announced a strategic booking partnership with Priceline Group Inc (NASDAQ:PCLN). PCLN, meanwhile, is down 2% at $1,318.55.

The price action is likely being met with similar reactions in the options pits of both TRIP and PCLN. TRIP, for example, has seen an influx of bearish betting in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.84 ranks in the 63rd annual percentile. In other words, puts have been bought to open over calls at a faster-than-usual clip.

Echoing this is TRIP's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.30, which rests above 78% of all similar readings taken in the past year. In other words, short-term speculators are more put-heavy than usual toward the stock.

This skepticism isn't too surprising, considering TripAdvisor Inc was staring at a 10.7% year-to-date deficit heading into today's trading. Thanks to today's bull gap, though -- which has the shares on track to close north of their 200-day moving average for the first time since July 27 -- call volume has soared to 30 times what's typically seen. 

Call buyers, meanwhile, have been increasing their presence in PCLN's options arena of late. Over the past two weeks, the stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio has grown to 1.35 from 1.12, and now ranks in the 83rd percentile of its annual range.

In the past 10 days, specifically, the equity's now-expired 10/2 1,270-strike call saw the largest rise in open interest. Drilling down on the front-month series -- which expires at this Friday's close -- peak call open interest is found at the October 1,500 strike. For those buying to open the calls, the goal is for PCLN to settle north of $1,500 at week's end -- in never-before-charted waters.

Technically speaking, Priceline Group Inc is up almost 16% on the year -- and, historically, turns in an impressive fourth-quarter performance. Amid today's slip, put volume is running at nearly two times the average intraday pace, with buy-to-open activity detected at the equity's October 1,300 strike. Regardless of where PCLN settles the week, though, the most any option buyer stands to lose is the initial premium paid.
Published on Oct 14, 2015 at 11:49 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is getting demolished today, after Chief Financial Officer Charles Holley said he expects per-share earnings to decline up to 12% in fiscal 2017 -- a warning that's overshadowing a newly unveiled $20 billion share repurchase program. At last check, the shares are down nearly 9% at $60.80, and earlier bottomed at a three-year low of $60.12. Amid this collapse -- the stock's worst in over 15 years -- WMT's options pits are packed.

Overall, intraday volume is at eight times the usual, with calls holding a slight edge over puts. The now out-of-the-money January 2016 62.50-strike call is among the most active options, and is seeing buy-to-open activity, as long-term traders keep the faith -- expecting WMT to re-take the $62.50 level by January 2016 expiration. On the other hand, short-term bears think the shares will breach the round $60 mark by Friday's close, buying to open the October 60 put.

Certainly, from a longer-term perspective, bearish bets have been more popular than bullish. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), WMT's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.94 registers just 10 percentage points from a 12-month peak. In other words, traders have been buying to open puts over calls at a near-extreme rate in recent weeks. Along similar lines, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.87 ranks in the 86% annual percentile, hinting at a pronounced put-skew among short-term speculators.

Option traders aren't the only ones with doubts about WMT. Of the 22 analysts tracking the stock, 86% have handed out a "hold" or worse recommendation.

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