Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 2:07 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Biotech stocks are on the move today, and none more so than PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTCT). After being halted earlier due to volatility, the stock has resumed trading and surged over 47% to hover near $9.17 -- its best one-day percentage gain in almost two years -- on a drug recommendation from the U.K.'s National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. What's more, the massive gains have options traders coming out in droves.

Looking more closely, 11,000 PTCT options are on the tape, or 25 times the expected intraday amount. Calls are outstripping puts by a nearly 4-to-1 count, and buy-to-open activity is detected at the April 7 and 9 calls. By purchasing these positions, eleventh-hour bulls foresee PTCT extending its run higher through tonight's closing bell, when front-month options expire.

Call buying has been the trend in recent months at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), amid a relatively low-volume backdrop. PTCT's 50-day call/put volume ratio across those exchanges is 4.60 -- just 9 percentage points shy of a 12-month peak. Echoing this call bias, PTCT's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.18 sits in the low 3rd percentile of its annual range.

While option bulls are dancing in the streets. short sellers may be feeling the heat. Nearly 24% of PTCT's float is sold short, representing more than six sessions' worth of trading activity, based on the stock's average volumes. If, however, these short sellers hedged their positions using protective calls, their losses may be limited.

As alluded to, PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTCT) is having a banner day on the charts. From a long-term perspective, though, the biotech stock has a ways to go before climbing back to respectability. Year-to-date, the shares have surrendered nearly three-quarters of their value.

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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 2:11 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
Analysts are weighing in on data storage specialist Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ:STX), 3-D printing firm 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD), and energy stock Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTEN). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on STX, DDD, and PTEN.

  • STX is off 4.9% at $25.76, after Argus downgraded the stock to "hold" from "buy." Today's decline has the shares down 22.4% week-to-date -- thanks to a dismal forecast -- and on track to log the worst weekly performance of any S&P 500 Index (SPX) stock. Longer term, STX has surrendered more than half of its value year-over-year. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), meanwhile, Seagate Technology PLC's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.31 ranks in the 71st annual percentile. In other words, puts have been bought to open over calls at a faster-than-usual clip.

  • Yesterday, DDD surged 10% on a strong outlook from BofA-Merrill Lynch. Today, the shares have plunged 7% to $17, after Citigroup -- which also chimed in on one of DDD's sector peers -- lowered its rating to "sell" (while boosting its price target to $15 from $10). Specifically, the brokerage firm said a possible takeover by HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) seems "highly unlikely," and that optimism over the firm's new CEO is already priced in the shares. In fact, year-to-date, shares of 3D Systems Corporation have roughly doubled, yet short-term speculators have shown a distinct preference for puts over calls. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.96 sits just 2 percentage points from a 52-week peak.

  • J.P. Morgan Securities cut its rating on PTEN to "underweight" from "neutral," sending the shares down 4.1% to $17.50. Additionally, skepticism ahead of a big meeting of global oil producers is weighing on energy stocks -- overshadowing a report from Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE:BHI) that showed domestic rig counts dropped for a fourth straight week, and are currently at their lowest level since November 2009. Today's negative price action runs counter to PTEN's longer-term trajectory, though, with the stock up 60% from its Jan. 20 six-year low of $10.94. Should the stock resume its uptrend, short sellers could start to jump ship. Short interest accounts for 14.4% of Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s available float, or more than a week's worth of pent-up buying demand, at the average pace of trading.
For other stocks in analysts' crosshairs, read Analyst Upgrades: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, JetBlue Airways Corporation, and Micron Technology, Inc. and Analyst Downgrades: American Airlines Group Inc, SeaWorld Entertainment Inc, and Stratasys, Ltd.
Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 3:08 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stock Market News
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) ​put options are trading at an accelerated rate this afternoon, on news the tech company reduced production for its latest iPhone. Put volume is running at twice the average intraday norm, and it appears traders are buying to open the April 110 strike in hopes of extended losses from AAPL in the next hour -- when front-month options expire

Looking back, though, call options have been more popular than puts in AAPL's options pits. For instance, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) comes in at 0.73 -- in the 30th percentile of its annual range. So, not only does call open interest outweigh put open interest among options expiring in the next three months, but short-term AAPL speculators are much more call-skewed than what's normally seen. 

On the charts, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been rebounding since bottoming near $92.60 in mid-February. Still, the shares are down 1.9% at $110.04 today due to the iPhone news, putting AAPL back below its pesky 200-day moving average. The stock is also looking up at the $112 area, which has blocked its breakout attempts since mid-December. Looking ahead, the tech giant will report earnings the evening of Monday, April 25. 

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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 3:13 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity

Online coupon specialist Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) is up 4.4% at $4.62, possibly in response to an upbeat analyst note. The stock's 2016 gains -- now over 50% -- are largely due to a post-earnings bull gap, seen in mid-February. Since then, GRPN has been enjoying support from its 200-day moving average, advancing more than 16% in April so far. And today option traders are busy betting that GRPN will extend its gains beyond its next earnings report, due later this month.

GRPN Daily Chart 

Macquarie -- which already holds an "outperform" opinion on the stock -- today raised its price target to $5 from $3.50. Analyst Tom White cited "evidence that its core U.S. turnaround is on track," and applauded Groupon Inc's plans to move its model away from email and toward becoming a real-time marketplace, saying local U.S. deals seem to be ramping up. 

However, despite GRPN's recent strong technical performance -- the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 65 percentage points over the last three months -- most analysts are far from optimistic, with 12 out of 15 rating the shares a "hold" or worse, leaving plenty of room for potential upgrades. And the consensus 12-month price-target of $3.68 represents a 20% discount to GRPN's current value.

The shares could see further gains should remaining short sellers back off. While short interest has fallen 13.6% over the past month, it still accounts for more than 14% of GRPN's available float, or about six days' worth of trading, at the equity's typical daily pace.

And option traders have been more bearish than usual of late. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.31 is in the 97th percentage of its annual range. Plus, GRPN has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.76, higher than 94% of the past year's readings, indicating near-term players are more put-skewed than normal. Still, by absolute numbers, a preference for calls over puts has been the norm for GRPN.

Today, GRPN calls are crossing the tape at five times their expected intraday rate, with 16,000 changing hands so far, compared to just 1,500 puts. Most active is GRPN's May 4.5 call, where most of the action looks to be buy-to-open. That means call buyers are betting that Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) will extend its rally above the $4.50 level through the close on May 20 -- when the soon-to-be front-month option expires, and well after the company's April 28 earnings release.

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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 8:41 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Overseas Trading
Stocks in Asia edged lower today, following the release of China's first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures. The Chinese economy grew a year-over-year 6.7% during the quarter, which matched estimates but marked a slowdown from the fourth quarter. However, other key economic data -- such as new home starts, industrial production, and retail sales -- hinted at signs of economic improvement. Nonetheless, China's Shanghai Composite, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and South Korea's Kospi all fell 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei snapped a three-day win streak by losing 0.4%.

European stocks are also trading lower at midday. Aside from China's GDP, traders are exercising caution ahead of Sunday's meeting in Doha, Qatar, where top oil producers will meet to discuss a potential production freeze. Brent crude futures were last seen sharply lower, as speculation swirls that Iran's oil minister won't participate in the meeting. London's FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX were both last seen 0.5% lower. France's CAC 40, meanwhile, was off 0.6%. 

Overseas Trading April 15



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Published on Apr 14, 2016 at 8:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Overseas Trading
Wall Street's rally on Thursday bled over into Asia, while surprise monetary easing out of Singapore only added to the risk-on attitude. In Japan, the yen fell again against the dollar, giving the Nikkei a third straight impressive win with a 3.2% gain -- its best day since March 2. Also lifting Japanese markets were comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who said policymakers wouldn't "hesitate to take additional easing measures" if necessary. Ahead of the country's first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) release on Friday, China's Shanghai Composite tacked on 0.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended 0.9% higher, and South Korea's Kospi closed with a 1.8% gain. 

Stocks' gains in Europe are less impressive. Lower Brent crude futures are sapping investor sentiment, as is news that the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged in light of ongoing "Brexit" concerns. Among stocks, luxury retailer Burberry is moving lower after reporting disappointing same-store sales -- following the lead of this sector peer. The FTSE 100 has still managed a 0.02% lead at midday, while France's CAC 40 was up 0.1% and Germany's DAX was up 0.2%. 

Overseas Trading April 14



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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 9:25 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on aviation issue American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL), theme park operator SeaWorld Entertainment Inc (NYSE:SEAS), and 3-D printing specialist Stratasys, Ltd. (NASDAQ:SSYS). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on AAL, SEAS, and SSYS.

  • A week ahead of the airline's earnings report, AAL was hit with a price-target cut to $48 from $55 at Barclays. However, this mark still represents a 17% premium to last night's close at $41.17, and territory not charted since last May. Speaking more broadly, two-thirds of analysts rate American Airlines Group Inc a "buy" or better, with not a single "sell" to be found. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target stands at a high $49.23. As a result, AAL -- which is down 3% in 2016, due in part to overseas terrorism -- is vulnerable to additional bearish brokerage notes.
  • Citigroup lowered its opinion of SEAS to "neutral" from "buy," despite the stock's extreme gains in recent weeks. Specifically, since touching a March low of $16.87, the shares have rocketed 27% to trade at $21.42 -- sparked by the amusement park's decision to stop breeding killer whales. Ahead of the open, however, SeaWorld Entertainment Inc is pointed 2.4% lower. On the sentiment front, short sellers remain unconvinced by the stock's technical tenacity. Short interest jumped 18.5% during the latest reporting period, and accounts for over 27% of its float. Separately, the firm announced today it has appointed two new members to its board.
  • Citigroup also cut its rating on SSYS to "neutral" from "buy," pressuring the shares 2.3% lower in electronic trading. On a year-over-year basis, the stock -- which closed yesterday at $29.35 -- has surrendered over half of its value, despite a rock-solid March performance. Not surprisingly, short-term options traders are more put-focused than usual toward Stratasys, Ltd. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) checks in at 1.99 -- with puts roughly doubling calls among options in the front three-months' series -- which ranks in the 98th percentile of its annual range.
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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 9:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
As traders exercise caution ahead of this weekend's meeting of oil producers in Doha, U.S. stocks are set to start the day lower. Among equities in focus today are biotech stocks Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX) and Relypsa Inc (NASDAQ:RLYP), as well as solar energy concern Sunedison Inc (NYSE:SUNE).

  • VRX is up 2.7% ahead of the bell, after closing at $32.37 Thursday, on news that the company is working with investment banks -- including Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) -- to review options, which could include a sale of some of its businesses. Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc has been struggling since mid-2015, amid a series of missteps, and most recently received a notice of default from a larger bondholder. But in the options pits, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have been buying calls at a faster-than-usual clip. The stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.55 sits higher than 84% of all readings in the past year.
  • RLYP is set to drop 8.6% at the bell, amid rumors that it has abandoned Centerview Partners Holdings LLC as an M&A advisor. Fresh reports that Relypsa Inc may be exploring a sale -- echoing an old rumor -- helped the shares pop 68% in a single day earlier this month. But short sellers have been betting hard against RLYP lately, increasing their positions by nearly 18% during the two most recent reporting periods. Short interest now accounts for over 45% of the stock's available float, or more than seven sessions' worth of trading, at RLYP's average daily volume. The equity settled at $22.08 Thursday, atop recent support at its 200-day moving average -- a foothold the shares may struggle to keep today.
  • SUNE is set to give up 30.3% when the market opens, after reporting that it is still in bankruptcy loan negotiations with creditors. Sunedison Inc also said it is targeting a 50% reduction in headcount from its October 2015 levels, and has already achieved a reduction of 40%. The shares ended Thursday at $0.59 -- a 59% gain for the session -- after reporting that its accounting probe found no evidence of fraud. Still, the stock has shed a whopping 98% of its value in the past year, and while some option bulls have been picking up calls, near-term traders are unusually put-skewed. SUNE's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.07 is in the 95th percentile of its annual range.
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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 9:46 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on online retailer Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), airline stock JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU), and chipmaker Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on BABA, JBLU, and MU.
 
  • Needham initiated coverage on BABA with a "buy" rating, which is pretty typical among the brokerage crowd. In fact, 14 of 17 analysts consider the stock worth buying, while not one recommends selling it. This seems a bit strange, considering Alibaba Group Holding Ltd -- down 0.2% out of the gate at $79.45 -- is in the red on a year-to-date basis, and facing a potential layer of resistance at its 320-day moving average. In other words, some might expect Wall Street to start following in the bearish footsteps of Credit Suisse.

  • Barclays boosted its rating on JBLU to "overweight" from "equal weight," but trimmed its price target to $26. In early trading, the stock is up 0.4% at $20.68, but longer term, it's struggled. Specifically, on a year-to-date basis, JetBlue Airways Corporation has lost nearly 9%, under pressure from a key trendline. Amid the technical turbulence, options traders have been buying to open puts over calls at an accelerated clip. JBLU's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.94 sits just 7 percentage points from an annual peak.

  • MU received a pair of bullish brokerage notes, with Brean Capital starting coverage with a "buy" rating and $14 price target, and Raymond James boosting its opinion to "strong buy." As a result, the stock has popped 1.4% to trade at $10.55, but remains saddled with a 25% loss in 2016. Despite Micron Technology, Inc.'s track record, the brokerage crowd is tilted in a bullish direction, with 57% handing out "buy" or better endorsements. Also, MU's consensus 12-month price target of $13.50 stands at a 28% premium to current trading levels. In other words, a change in heart among analysts could lead to selling pressure.
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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
China-based automobile website Autohome Inc (ADR) (NYSE:ATHM) is outperforming the broader market this morning, up 1.2% at $30.52. The stock is gaining on news that Chinese insurance giant Ping An is buying a 48% stake in the company from Telstra for $1.6 billion. Looking back, this technical strength is the continuation of a recent trend for ATHM. 

Specifically, the shares fell to an all-time low of $21.53 in early February, but have since gained nearly 42%, hitting their highest point in over three months this morning. Looking at the stock's run differently, it has topped the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) two-month performance by 14 percentage points. However, ATHM's 200-day moving average -- a level the stock hasn't topped since July -- has so far contained today's rally, and the shares remain well below their annual high $56.59 from last April.  

On the options front, ATHM doesn't see much attention. For instance, just 344 options have traded so far in today's session, yet this represents three times the volume the stock usually sees at this point in the day. 

ATHM is popular among short sellers, though. Roughly 10% of the stock's float is controlled by short sellers, and at its average daily volumes, it'd take these bears more than six sessions to cover. Suffice it to say, this crowd can't be pleased with today's price action. 

Analysts, meanwhile, have mixed feelings toward Autohome Inc (ADR) (NYSE:ATHM). Three brokerage firms recommend buying the stock, while the two others deem it a "hold" and "sell." In any case, today's pop puts ATHM above its consensus 12-month price target of $29.40. Theoretically, the stock could benefit from price-target hikes and/or short covering, if it can overcome its 200-day moving average and extend its recent rally. 

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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 10:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Crude oil's epic decline is having ripple effects around Wall Street -- as evidenced by the energy-related decline in big banks' first-quarter profit. The energy sector has bore the brunt of the slide, though, and this morning, oil-and-gas firm Linn Energy LLC (NASDAQ:LINE) said it is exploring strategic alternatives, including the possibility of filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Against this backdrop, LINE is up 13.7% to $0.41 and its options pits are bustling.

By the numbers, 2,000 put options have traded so far, compared to just under 500 call options -- 1.5 times what's typically seen in LINE's lightly traded options arena. Most active is the equity's May 0.50 put, where it looks as if new positions are being initiated. However, with such a wide bid-ask skew, it's not easy to tell at this time whether the options are being bought or sold.

More broadly speaking, call buying has been a popular strategy in LINE's options pits in recent weeks. Over the past 10 sessions, the stock has racked up a call/put volume ratio of 7.36 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) -- in the 94th percentile of its annual range.

Looking back, LINE's May 0.50 call has seen the biggest rise in open interest over this time frame, and according to the major options exchanges, some of this activity has been of the buy-to-open kind. In other words, call buyers anticipate a move above $0.50 by the close on Friday, May 20 -- when the soon-to-be front-month options expire. Regardless, the most the option buyers have risked is the initial premium paid.

As indicated, LINE's had a tough time on the charts. Year-over-year, the shares of Linn Energy LLC (NASDAQ:LINE) are off nearly 97% -- including yesterday's 16% plunge that placed the stock on the short-sale restricted list. In fact, LINE bottomed at a record low of $0.26 as recently as April 4.

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Published on Apr 15, 2016 at 10:55 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is slated to report earnings next Monday evening, in what will be a busy week for quarterly earnings report. Today, our goal is to look at Wall Street's pre-event expectations for NFLX stock, in the options pits and beyond.

Starting things off, NFLX has historically made some big moves following its past eight earnings reports. Specifically, the stock has averaged a one-day post-event swing of 11.6% -- half to the upside, the other half to the downside. Expectations among options traders are roughly in line with this pattern, as the market is pricing in a 12.2% swing, in either direction, following the earnings report.

From the looks of it, most options traders anticipate NFLX's post-earnings price action will resolve to the upside. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open 1.31 calls for each put during the past 10 weeks -- and the corresponding call/put volume ratio ranks in the bullishly skewed 82nd percentile of its annual range.

Underscoring this call bias is NFLX's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.01. While the SOIR shows put and call open interest are roughly equal among options expiring in the next three months, the reading sits below three-quarters of all others taken in the past year.

The brokerage crowd has taken a glass-half-full approach, too. Nearly 60% of analysts recommend buying NFLX, while the stock's consensus 12-month price target of $123.66 represents territory not charted since mid-December.

Meanwhile, short sellers have been hitting the exits ahead of NFLX earnings. During the last two reporting periods, short interest on the stock fell 7.7%. However, 11.8% of its float remains dedicated to short interest, and would take nearly a week to buy back, at NFLX's typical trading levels. It may be that some of the recent call buying has been fueled by short sellers seeking a hedge.

From a technical perspective, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) has been a mixed bag. Since bouncing from its mid-February lows around $80, the stock has advanced 38% to trade at $110.40. However, NFLX remains in negative year-to-date territory, and its breakeven level could translate into resistance going forward.

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