Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 6, 2016 at 12:49 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News

It's the slow part of earnings season, but several companies are still making headlines in the earnings confessional. Today, agricultural concern Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) and lighting specialist Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:AYI) are shaking things up, and one could enjoy tailwinds if the bears hit the bricks.

Traders are digesting MON's lower-than-predicted revenue for its fiscal second quarter, as the company struggles with sinking seed sales and a strong dollar. However, the stock is 0.8% higher at $86.80, after the firm lifted its full-year guidance to account for a change in the expected timing of restructuring expenses.

Heading into today's report, sentiment appeared to be skewed in MON's favor. Half of the analysts following MON offer up "strong buy" endorsements, and the average 12-month price target of $99.84 sits at a 15% premium to the stock's current value, and in territory not seen in 2016. Short interest on MON has been declining lately, too -- down 30% during the most recent one-month reporting period. In fact, these bearish bets now account for less than 2% of the equity's available float.

And in the option pits, traders had been purchasing long calls over puts at an accelerated rate, hinting at growing optimism ahead of earnings. MON's 10-day call/put volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits at 3.52 -- higher than 92% of all readings in the past year.

Technically, MON is off 13% year-to-date, pressured beneath resistance at its 160-day moving average -- a trendline the shares haven't topped on a closing basis since last May. Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) seems to have found an ally in the $84 range, though, which contained pullbacks in September and March.

AYI bears might be sweating after this morning's strong earnings beat . The company reported record fiscal second-quarter earnings, and offered a rosy outlook --though the same can't be said for this sector peer. The news has the shares soaring 11.3% to $250.35. In fact, the stock earlier tapped a fresh all-time high of $253.97, breaking out atop former resistance in the $240 region.

The brokerage bunch has been in AYI's corner for some time, with 80% of analysts calling the equity a "strong buy" and not a single "sell" on the books. However, not everyone is so optimistic. Short interest on AYI rose by over 36% during the past month, and accounts for nearly seven sessions' worth of trading, at the security's average daily volume. That's plenty of fuel for a short squeeze.

And while option volume on AYI is relatively light, on an absolute basis, option traders have been betting heavily against the shares. At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, traders bought to open nearly five AYI puts for each call in the last two weeks -- a ratio in the 79th percentile of its annual range. An unwinding of bearish sentiment from option traders and short sellers could be enough to keep the rally going for Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:AYI).

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Published on Apr 6, 2016 at 1:41 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
Analysts are weighing in on motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG), specialty chemical stock Tronox Ltd (NYSE:TROX), and Google parent Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on HOG, TROX, and GOOGL.

  • HOG is 7.2% lower at $46.26 after ITG Investment Research cut its first-quarter unit sales outlook by 3% on evidence that retail sales trends weakened last month, as well as a loss in market share. Harley-Davidson Inc is now testing support at its 100-day moving average, a trendline that hasn't been breached on a closing basis in over a month. Meanwhile, option traders have been busy picking up long HOG calls, and if the shares extend their slide, a capitulation among these bulls could accelerate the downward momentum. Elsewhere, analysts have been wary -- 12 out of 18 currently rate the stock a "hold" or "strong sell." Short interest also remains elevated, accounting for 12.7% of HOG's available float, or over two weeks' worth of trading, at the equity's average daily volume.
  • UBS downgraded TROX to a "sell" rating, sending the shares down 4.3% to $6.50. Explaining the bearish note, the brokerage firm cited weak titanium dioxide prices, which have "no meaningful recovery in sight." The chemical stock has been on a steady downtrend since mid-2014, but broke out above resistance at its 50-day moving average in late February, rallying sharply since then -- today's losses notwithstanding. Short sellers may be cheering today's price action. While these bearish bets fell nearly 14% during the last two reporting periods, they still account for over 17% of TROX's available float. At Tronox Ltd's typical pace of trading, it would take seven days to cover these positions.
  • GOOGL is up 0.6% at $762.97 after UBS raised its price target on the stock to $880 from $875 -- a 15% premium to the shares' current value, and well into record-high territory. Still, this target falls well shy of the average 12-month price target on Alphabet Inc, which currently sits at $926.38. Likewise, 94% of analysts maintain "buy" or better ratings on the stock. But option traders have been betting against GOOGL more than usual of late. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.74 is higher than nearly three-fourths of the past year's readings. And option buyers could be getting a great deal at the moment -- GOOGL's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 19% is perched at an annual low, meaning short-term options are pricing in very low volatility expectations.
For other stocks in analysts' crosshairs, read Analyst Upgrades: Apple Inc., Sarepta Therapeutics Inc, and Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Analyst Downgrades: Wells Fargo & Co, Cree, Inc., and First Solar, Inc.
Published on Apr 6, 2016 at 3:27 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX) is exploding after Pershing Square's Bill Ackman said the drugmaker could find a new CEO in weeks -- a much shorter time frame than originally expected. Ackman added the stock will become "investable" again once its annual report is filed, and he expects his hedge fund will recover the "lion's share" of its investment in VRX over time. At last check, the shares have surged over 18.4% to trade at $34.03, and overall options volume comes in at roughly two times the expected intraday rate.

Long-term, of course, VRX has gotten a beat-down. Pershing Square started buying the stock last February when it was trading around $161 per share. Since then, it's lost 79% of its value. While today's gains have helped stop the bleeding, the shares are now approaching a potential layer of resistance in the form of their 20-day moving average -- which hasn't been cleared on a daily closing basis since mid-February.

Pressuring the stock over the past few months are a number of fundamental follies, including a cease-trade order out of Canada and credit woes. More notoriously, VRX has been accused of predatory pricing practices, which which came into focus last October in a Citron Research short-seller report.

In recent months, however, options traders have expressed optimism. Specifically, during the past 50 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 1.38 VRX calls for each put. The corresponding call/put volume ratio ranks in the high 70th percentile of its annual range.

Underscoring this call bias is Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc's (NYSE:VRX) Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.09. While tilted toward puts on an absolute basis, the SOIR ranks in the bottom quartile of its annual range -- suggesting open interest among options expiring in the next three months is less put-skewed than usual.

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Published on Apr 7, 2016 at 8:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Overseas Trading
Stocks in Asia finished mixed after a strong Wednesday close on Wall Street, as crude futures rose on a drop in U.S. stockpiles. China's Shanghai Composite gave up 1.4% ahead of the end of a three-month ban on short selling for large shareholders. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei snapped its losing streak, adding 0.2% despite the yen surging to an 18-month high against the U.S. dollar. Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished 0.3% higher, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.1%.

European markets are in the red at midday, as traders digest the latest minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which said "the Governing Council would not rule out future cuts in policy rates, as new shocks could change the outlook for inflation." However, after March's surprise stimulus move, the central bank said "further rate reductions would not be anticipated at this stage." At last check, London's FTSE 100 was off 0.2%, while France's CAC 40 and the German DAX had shed 0.4% each.

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Published on Apr 7, 2016 at 9:18 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on medical device stock TransEnterix, Inc. (NYSEMKT:TRXC), as well as retailers Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:OLLI) and Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on TRXC, OLLI, and BBBY.
 
  • TRXC is set to add another 3.4% this morning, as excitement builds ahead of a key Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decision. The stock has added over 30% this week, closing Wednesday at $5.69 after tapping an annual high of $6.10. With bulls rushing into TransEnterix, Inc.'s options pits, analysts are also getting in on the action. Lake Street this morning reiterated its "buy" opinion on the shares, along with a $7 price target. However, this is just more of the same from Wall Street, where every single brokerage tracking TRXC recommends buying it. 
  • OLLI is pointed almost 10% higher in electronic trading, thanks to better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. The stock has already outpaced the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by nearly 16 percentage points in the past three months to trade at $22.70, but analysts are still expecting more. Just this morning, Piper Jaffray upped its rating on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc to "overweight," with a price-target hike to $28. No fewer than three other analysts also raised their price targets, which may have short sellers scared. More than one-fourth of OLLI's float is sold short, accounting for 12 sessions' worth of trading, at the stock's typical daily volume.  
  • BBBY is eyeing a 2.6% pop when the market opens, after the company beat the Street's expectations in the earnings confessional and announced a new quarterly dividend. Goldman Sachs and Baird raised their respective price targets on Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. to $52 and $51, and there's a good chance the stock could receive more bullish attention in the near term. Specifically, just one of the 17 brokerages tracking BBBY recommends buying it. And at their Wednesday close of $48.81, the shares are up more than 18% since hitting a five-year low of $41.26 in early February. 
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Published on Apr 7, 2016 at 9:45 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
Stocks are lower this morning, despite a sharper-than-forecast drop in jobless claims. Meanwhile, among specific equities in focus are drugmaker Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX), Internet pioneer Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO), and Victoria's Secret parent L Brands Inc (NYSE:LB).

  • VRX received approval from its creditors to amend the terms of its debt and postpone its regulatory filing deadlines. As such, the stock is looking at another day of huge gains, up 11.3% out of the gate to flirt with $38.00. Year-to-date, however, Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc remains at a more than 62% deficit. This should be a boon to the bullish hopes of options traders. During the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 1.78 VRX calls for every put -- a ratio that ranks in the top quartile of its annual range. However, skepticism remains on Wall Street, based on the negativity witnessed among analysts.

  • YHOO is expecting a 20% year-over-year drop in earnings and a nearly 15% fall in revenue, according to a Re/code report based on the company's financial documents. This development has the shares down 1.4% in early trading at $36.16, and set to close south of its 10-day moving average for the first time since March 15. In recent weeks, though, Yahoo! Inc. has been rallying amid rampant M&A rumblings. On the sentiment front, analysts remain firmly planted in YHOO's bullish corner, while options traders are nearing a call-skewed extreme. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) checks in at 0.34, lower than 96% of all other readings from the past year.

  • LB reported same-store sales rose 3% in March, and also announced plans to restructure Victoria's Secret into three business units. At last check, the stock was down 0.6% at $85.55, and more than 8.5% lower in 2016. Moreover, L Brands Inc's rally attempts over the past few weeks have been contained by the 50-week moving average. Elsewhere, options traders have been placing bearish bets over bullish at an accelerated clip. LB's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 11.04 ranks in the high 89th percentile of its annual range.
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Published on Apr 7, 2016 at 9:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on social media stock Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), telecommunications firm Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ), and iPhone creator Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on TWTR, VZ, and AAPL.

  • TWTR is trading higher this morning, even after a Pacific Crest analyst spoke unfavorably about the company's new partnership with the NFL. The firm said it's "very unlikely" the deal will be profitable, and was skeptical about the impact it would have on user growth. Twitter Inc was last seen up 0.9% at $17.42, but is down 67% from a year ago. Still, short-term speculators have taken a call-skewed approach, according to TWTR's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR). At 0.50, this ratio ranks lower than 94% of all readings in the past year. 
  • After taking a 24.5% stake in AwesomenessTV on Wednesday, ​VZ ​has fallen 2.1% to trade at $52.40. Weighing on the shares are bearish notes from Bernstein and Jefferies, which both cut their outlooks to the equivalent of "hold." This comes despite the fact the stock has topped the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by over 10 percentage points in the past three months. While most analysts are still bullish on Verizon Communications Inc., though, near-term option traders are at a put-skewed extreme. The stock's SOIR of 1.71 is in the top percentile of its annual range.
  • AAPL just received its third price-target revision this week -- though this one was bearish. BTIG lowered its price target on the stock to $130 from $141, mentioning a shift away from iPhones that could weigh on Apple Inc.'s margins. The shares were down 1.2% at $109.63 at last check -- a change from the strong price action we've seen in recent weeks. Some traders would like to see AAPL extend today's decline, though -- short interest on the stock jumped by 11% in the latest two-week reporting period. 
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Published on Apr 7, 2016 at 10:40 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) announced a $2.2 billion agreement in which it will sell a number of its network assets to Network LeaseCo and lease them back. Traders apparently aren't too keen on the deal, as the stock was last seen 2.1% lower at $3.52. Sprint shareholders aren't the only ones feeling the pain today, as options speculators have been unusually bullish of late.

During the last two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), options traders have bought to open nearly 33 S calls for every put. The resultant 10-day call/put volume ratio of 32.65 ranks just 2 percentage points from an annual peak.

Calls have been very popular among short-term options traders, as well. S boasts a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.36, with call open interest nearly tripling put open interest. What's more, the SOIR sits south of 95% of readings taken in the past year.

Of course, not every call trader is necessarily a bull, especially considering the high levels of short interest on S. Specifically, close to 29% of the stock's float is sold short, which translates to 8.3 sessions' worth of trading activity, at typical levels. In other words, short sellers may be buying to open out-of-the-money calls to serve as upside protection.

As we saw earlier, Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) has taken it on the chin today, and is now slightly below its year-to-date breakeven level. In addition, the stock is perched just south of its descending 120-day moving average, so it could be looking up at double-barreled technical resistance.

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Published on Apr 7, 2016 at 1:18 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News

ClubCorp Holdings Inc (NYSE:MYCC) is 6.6% lower at $12.39 -- after sinking more than 15% in earlier trading -- on news that Kerrisdale Capital Management has taken a short position on the stock. The company published a negative report on MYCC this morning, saying the country club operator is overpriced, and that the business model for running golf clubs could lead to "a potentially fatal debt burden."

But this type of skepticism is nothing new for the stock, which has seen short interest rise by more than 19% during the two most recent reporting periods. In fact, it would currently take about seven sessions for short sellers to cover their positions, at MYCC's average daily volume.

Today, however, shorts are sitting on the sidelines, considering MYCC is on the short-sale restricted list -- and speculators are running to the stock's option pits. At last check, the stock's options were crossing the tape at twice their average intraday rate, and puts were outpacing calls by a more than 2-to-1 margin. Meanwhile, although volume is still relatively light on an absolute basis, put open interest and total open interest on MYCC have both hit 12-month highs.

On the technical front, the equity has shed 32% year-to-date, hitting a record low of $9.75 in early February. A sharp rebound off this notable milestone was quickly halted by stiff resistance at MYCC's descending 80-day moving average, and the stock has since been tracking a path lower. In fact, today's drop has the shares below their 40-day moving average for the first time since Feb. 25.

Against this backdrop, the security could be a prime target for future downgrades. In fact, all seven analysts following ClubCorp Holdings Inc's (NYSE:MYCC) call it a "strong buy."

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Published on Apr 7, 2016 at 2:40 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • The Week Ahead
Earnings season unofficially kicks off once again with Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) reporting its quarterly figures on Monday. Several banking interests will head into the earnings confessional throughout the week, including Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC), and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C). On the economic front, traders will be awaiting the latest inflation data, and several central bank officials are slated to speak through the course of the week. 

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Monday, April 11

There are no significant economic reports on the radar for Monday, but Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan will participate in a Q&A session in Louisiana. Meanwhile, earnings season heats up with AA and Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) reporting quarterly results.

Tuesday, April 12

Import and export prices are first on the docket, followed by the release of the U.S. Treasury budget. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harper, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker are scheduled to speak throughout the day. CSX (CSX), Perry Ellis (PERY), and Fastenal (FAST) will step up to the earnings plate.

Wednesday, April 13

A busy day for economic reports begins with March retail sales and the producer price index (PPI), followed by the February business inventories report, the weekly crude inventories update, and the release of the Fed's Beige Book. Stepping into the earnings spotlight will be JPM and Pier 1 Imports (PIR).

Thursday, April 14

Weekly jobless claims and the consumer price index (CPI) will hit the Street, ahead of speeches from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell. A busier day for earnings reports includes Wells Fargo (WFC), BAC, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), BlackRock (BLK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS), and Progressive (PGR).

Friday, April 15

The Empire State manufacturing index and Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey are due Friday, as well as industrial production and Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Plus, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak at a seminar in the nation's capital. The week's earnings reports will wrap up with results from C, Charles Schwab (SCHW), Infosys (INFY), and Reynolds American (RAI).

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Published on Apr 7, 2016 at 3:25 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
Analysts are weighing in on gold stocks Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX)Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), and Royal Gold, Inc (USA) (NASDAQ:RGLD). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on ABX, GOLD, and RGLD.

  • ABX is just one of many gold stocks getting a boost from Canaccord Genuity today, as the brokerage firm raised its price target on Barrick Gold Corporation to C$22 from C$21.50. The stock has added 4.1% to trade at $14.54, bringing its year-to-date lead to 97% -- with help from the rising price of gold, as well as support from its rising 40-day moving average. Despite this technical strength, sentiment on ABX remains bearishly skewed, with 71% of analysts calling ABX a "hold" or worse. And near-term option traders have been unusually put-heavy, with the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.21 in the 91st percentile of its annual range.
  • GOLD received price-target hikes at Credit Suisse, to 6,700P from 6,400P, and at Dundee Capital, to $105 from $94. These bullish brokerage notes have boosted Randgold Resources Ltd. 2.8% to $92.78. The stock has been consolidating in the $88-$94 range since an early February bull gap, briefly tapping a three-year high at $96.50 in mid-March. But eight of 10 analysts still rate GOLD a "hold" or "strong sell." And at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.70 sits higher than 77% of the past year's readings, indicating traders have been picking up bearish bets at an unusually rapid rate during the last 10 weeks.
  • RGLD is up 3.1% at $51.82 after Dundee Capital upped its price target on the stock to $58 from $54, shaking off a price-target cut to $58 from $60 at National Bank Financial last night. Royal Gold, Inc has added 110% since hitting a seven-year low of $24.68 in late January, and both analysts and option traders appear to be in the equity's corner. Two-thirds of the brokerage firms providing coverage call RGDL a "strong buy," without a single "sell" rating on the books. At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, traders have bought to open nearly five RGLD calls for each put over the last 50 sessions -- with the resulting ratio of 4.76 in the 82nd percentile of its annual range.
For other stocks in analysts' crosshairs, read Analyst Upgrades: TransEnterix, Inc., Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc, and Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. and Analyst Downgrades: Twitter Inc, Verizon Communications Inc., and Apple Inc.
Published on Apr 8, 2016 at 8:51 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Overseas Trading
It was a mixed session in Asia today, as stocks reacted to a cooling yen. Specifically, the yen pulled back after hitting an 18-month high against the U.S. dollar, after Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso said the government could "take necessary measures" to avoid "one-sided" currency movements. Against this backdrop, both Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.5%. China's Shanghai Composite, meanwhile, shed 0.8% to log its longest daily losing streak since January, as anticipation builds ahead of Monday's update on inflation. Elsewhere, South Korea's Kospi gave back 0.1%.

European markets are higher at midday. Equities are getting a lift from oil prices, which are rising after Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated calls for gradual interest-rate hikes in the U.S. At last check, the German DAX is up 1.2% -- following a surprise jump in the country's trade deficit -- the French CAC 40 is enjoying a 1.1% lead, and London's FTSE 100 is 0.8% higher, despite an unexpected decline in February industrial production.

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