Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jan 23, 2025 at 10:45 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) is brushing off a fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat as well as record annual sales, after it also issued a dismal fiscal first-quarter and 2025 forecast. The company cited a sales strategy error that drove corporate travelers away.

AAL is down 8.3% to trade at $17.12 at last glance, on track for its biggest single-day percentage loss since May 29 as they pull back from yesterday's two-year high of $19.10. Shares rose 60.3% in the last six months, with long-term support from their 40-day moving average ready to contain today's steep losses.

The brokerage bunch remains bullish, with 12 of the 20 brokerages in coverage sporting a "buy" or better rating, which leaves the door wide open for downgrades. Meanwhile, short interest makes up 7% of the stock's available float.

The options pits have also displayed a penchant for bullish bets of late. This is per AAL's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.89 at the at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks higher than 89% of annual readings.

Drilling down to today's options activity, 110,000 calls and 84,000 puts have already crossed the tape, volume that's 6 times the intraday average volume. The most active contract is the weekly 1/24 18-strike put. 

Published on Jan 23, 2025 at 10:45 AM
  • Analyst Update

Boston Beer Company Inc (NYSE:SAM) was last seen down 2.5% at $243.98, trading at six-year lows following a bear note from Piper Sandler. The firm downgraded the security to "neutral" from "overweight," with a price-target cut to $275 from $370, after a disappointing rollout of its new product Hard Mountain Dew. 

Piper Sandler is joining the bearish majority, as now only one of the 15 analysts in coverage carries a "buy" rating. The 12-month consensus price target of $298.69 represents a 22.4% premium to current levels. 

SAM has been careening lower since the start of 2025, down 18.7% year-to-date after closing only two days higher since Jan. 2. The shares are below all notably daily moving averages, with pressure at the 10-day moving average helping guide them lower since mid-December. 

Short interest is down 5.4% over the last two weeks, though the stock failed to capitalize on the short covering. This points to underlying technical weakness. 

 

Published on Jan 23, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Updated on Jan 23, 2025 at 9:21 AM
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Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 4:23 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 3:33 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

While the crypto sector struggled after inauguration, nuclear stocks are in rally mode amid U.S. President Donald Trump's orders to increase energy production. Chris Wright, Trump's pick to lead the Energy Department, last week noted he would prioritize oil and gas, as well as nuclear power production.

Wright is also the director of nuclear stock Oklo Inc (NYSE:OKLO), which was last seen up 10.8% to trade at $34.64, on track for its fifth-straight win after earlier hitting an all-time high of $34.95. The equity is now looking to extend yesterday's 20% pop, and already boasts a whopping 219.6% year-over-year lead.

Shares of NuScale Power Corp (NYSE:SMR) are up 0.4% at $25.68 at last check, trading at their highest level since early December. The 100-day moving average contained SMR's pullback from its Nov. 29, record high of $32.29. Longer term, NuScale Power stock sports a jaw-dropping a 997.4%.

Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 3:32 PM
  • Technical Analysis

American mining company Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX) will announce quarterly results ahead of the open Thursday, Jan. 23. Per Zacks Investment Research, weaker copper prices in the fourth quarter are likely to have an impact, while analysts expect earnings of 25 cents per share. 

FCX's recent post-earnings history shows mixed results. The stock finished higher after two of the four quarters last year, and the same the year prior, averaging a 2.7% move, regardless of direction. This time around, the options pits are pricing in a 6% next-day swing. 

At last glance today, FCX was down 1.8% at $39.59, and looking to snap a six-day win streak. The shares have been on the rise since kicking off the year with a Jan. 3, 10-month low of $37.19, and sport roughly 4% year-over-year and year-to-date gains. 

FCX Jan22

When weighing in on Freeport-McMoRan stock's next move, options look like a good way to go. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 34% ranks in the low 20th percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations. The stock has tended to exceed these expectations over the past year, too, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 81 out of 100. 

Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 12:37 PM
  • Indicator of the Week
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Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 12:01 PM
  • Midday Market Check

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Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 10:40 AM
  • Analyst Update

Celsius Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CELH) is down 3.7% at $25.78 at last glance, after a downgrade from TD Cowen to "hold" from "buy," to go with a price-target cut to $29 from $40. The firm cited a sales slowdown, as well as increased competition from Alani Nu and other brands. 

Today's drop has CELH coming very close to its Nov. 18 two-year low of $25.23, though a floor of support at the $25 level has been in place for the last few months. Year over year, the equity is down roughly 51%, and is a far cry from its March 14 record high of $99.61. 

There is room for more analysts to change their tune, which could in turn weigh on the stock. Of the 18 brokerages covering CELH, 14 maintain a "buy" or better, rating, with zero "sells" on the books. Plus, the equity's 12-month consensus price target of $39.20 is a 51% premium to its current perch.

Call traders are brushing off the downgrade, with 23,000 calls exchanged so far today, compared to 7,990 puts. Overall, options volume is running at double what's typically seen at this point. The February 30 call is the most popular, followed by the February 40 call, with new positions opening at the weekly 1/24 26-strike call. 

Options look like a good way to go when weighing in on Celsius stock. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 65% ranks in the low 22nd percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations. The stock has tended to exceed these expectations over the past year, too, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 out of 100. 

Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 10:21 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Blue-chip earnings reports continue to roll in, with results from Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) on tap. The former beat fiscal second-quarter profit and revenue estimates due to strong demand for household products like toilet paper and laundry detergent. Meanwhile, the latter beat fourth-quarter expectations thanks to sales of its cancer treatment, but shared a lackluster 2025 outlook.

PG is up 2.4% to trade at $165.68 at last check, pacing for its fourth-straight gain and best single-day percentage pop since November. Shares are bouncing off their lowest level since April, and could today conquer overhead pressure from the 20-day moving average. The security also sports a 5% year-over-year lead.

On track for its worst day since July 2023, JNJ was last seen down 3.9% at $142.26. The security has shed 7.3% in the past 12 months, and is pulling back toward its Jan. 10, four-year low of $140.68, after yesterday's rally ran into long-term resistance at its 50-day trendline.

Both equities are getting blasted in the options pits today, with PG and JNJ seeing 5 and 3 times the intraday average volume so far, respectively. For the former, the most popular contract active is the weekly 1/24 162.50-strike call, while for the latter it's the 150-stirke call in that series.

 
 
Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Updated on Jan 22, 2025 at 10:05 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Jan 22, 2025 at 10:04 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis
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