Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 12:11 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of streaming giant Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) pulled back alongside the broader market, logging losses in the past four sessions after hitting a Feb. 14 record high of $1,064.50. However, the security was last seen 2.3% higher to trade at $998.53, approaching a historically bullish trendline that fueled its climb to that peak and could provide additional tailwinds.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rock White, NFLX is nearing its 50-day moving average after spending a significant stretch above it. Specifically, 80% of the past two months, and eight of the last 10 trading days. In the last three years, the stock triggered this signal nine times, with a one-month gain occurring 67% of the time and averaging a 5.8% return. A similar move would place NFLX back above $1,050.

NFLX Chart February 262025

Despite the recent dip, the stock remains a strong performer, boasting an 12.2% year-to-date lead and a 66.3% gain over the past 12 months. The equity has climbed higher every month since August and is on track for its seventh consecutive monthly win.

Bearish bets have been piling up over the past two weeks, with Netflix stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranking in the 88th percentile of its annual range. This suggests an unusually high preference for puts over calls among traders, even as the equity trades near record highs.

Meanwhile, options appear to offer an attractive way to speculate on NFLX's next move. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 31% ranks in the 16th percentile of its annual range, indicating relatively low volatility expectations -- a boon for premium buyers.

Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 12:03 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are firmly higher midday, as investors unpack a flood of corporate earnings and await Nvidia's (NVDA) "make or break" report, due out after the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) are both up triple digits, the latter looking to snap a four-day losing streak alongside the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Also of note, new home sales dropped a sharp 10.5% in January, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • 3 auto stocks in the spotlight today. 
  • Another home retailer posts upbeat earnings
  • Plus, options traders target LCID; SMCI surges on delayed filing; and XPEL plummets after quarterly report. 

MMC February26

Lucid Group Inc (NASDAQ:LCID) is down 13% at $2.27 at last look, after the unexpected departure of CEO Peter Rawlinson. The company also expects production to double in 2025 to 20,000 units. Options traders are targeting LCID after the news, with 59,000 calls and 124,000 puts exchanged so far -- already 2.8 times the stock's average daily options volume. The January 2026 2-strike put is the most popular, with new positions opening at the July 2 put. Since the start of the year, LCID is down 24.7%. 

Computer hardware name Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) is up 21.4% at $55.30 at last glance, after the semiconductor company submitted its delayed 10-K filing results, which met Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requirements. Looking to snap a four-day losing streak, SMCI is up 77.7% year to date with help from this month's rally

SMCI February26

Xpel Inc (NASDAQ:XPEL) stock is down 15.3% at $34.16 at last check, after the auto parts name announced a fourth-quarter earnings miss, though revenue beat estimates. Gapping to its lowest levels since August, the shares are down 35.1% year over year. 

Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 10:38 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Workday Inc (NASDAQ:WDAY) stock is up 7.8% at $275.15, after the software name posted fourth-quarter earnings of $1.92 per share on revenue of $2.21 billion, beating estimates of $1.78 on $2.18 billion. The software company is seeing a greater demand for artificial intelligence (AI) tools and benefited from a "$1.1 billion release of the valuation allowance related to U.S. federal and state deferred tax assets." Year over year, the equity is down 6.8%. 

In the options pits so far, WDAY has seen 11,000 calls and 11,000 puts exchanged, which is already 2.4 times its average daily options volume. The weekly 4/4 245-strike put is the most popular, with new positions being sold to open there. 

Intuit Inc (NASDAQ:INTU) is shooting off last session's 52-week lows, up 11.7% at $620.37 at last check, though still down 6.6% year over year. The fintech company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $3.32 per share on $3.96 billion in revenue, above expectations of $2.58 per share on $3.83 billion, and better-than-expected current-quarter guidance. Following the news, Morgan Stanley upgraded the shares to "overweight" from "equal weight," though no fewer than five other analysts slashed their price targets, including Scotiabank to $600 from $700. 

INTU has seen 7,829 calls and 3,779 puts cross the tape so far, which is seven times the overall volume typically seen at this point. March 720 call is the most popular, where new positions are being sold to open. 

 

Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 10:23 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

The auto industry is in the spotlight today, as several major stocks react to earnings reports, strategic moves, and executive changes. Investors are closely watching General Motors Co (NYSE:GM), Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA), and Lucid Group Inc (NASDAQ:LCID) amid these developments.

General Motors announced a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend to 15 cents per share and unveiled a $6 billion stock buyback plan, with $2 billion in repurchases set for the second quarter. In response, GM has surged 6.9% to $49.96 so far today, extending its 23.3% year-over-year gain.

Stellantis, meanwhile, is grappling with a steep 70% drop in full-year profit, reporting 2024 net earnings of 5.5 billion euros, falling short of analyst expectations. The disappointing results have sent STLA 5.4% lower to $13.28 at last glance, deepening its 47.7% year-over-year decline.

As for Lucid Group, the EV maker announced plans to more than double vehicle production to 20,000 units this year. However, the stock took a hit after news of a leadership shakeup, with CEO Peter Rawlinson stepping down. LCID was last seen down 7.1% at $2.42, bringing its 2025 loss to 20.4%.

Options activity is heating up for all three. General Motors stock is trading at three times its average intraday volume, while Stellantis and Lucid Group stocks are both seeing five times their usual activity. At STLA’s most popular contract, the June 11 put, new positions are being sold to open, suggesting traders may be eyeing a short-term floor.

Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Updated on Feb 26, 2025 at 9:32 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Just a day after competitor Home Depot (HD) had its turn in the earnings confessional, Lowe's Companies Inc (NYSE:LOW) revealed a top- and bottom-line win for the fourth quarter amid improving sales. The home improvement retailer also saw demand fall amid higher interest rates and home costs, however, issuing a lackluster sales and profit forecast for the year.

LOW is up 3.6% to trade at $251 at last glance, after yesterday snapping a six-day losing streak. The stock has only had three positive weeks since the beginning of the year, but still added 12.6% over the last six months. The shares are extending a bounce off their lowest level since August, but overhead pressure remains at their 20-day moving average.

Analysts have yet to chime in on the results, but already lean bullish on LOW, with 21 of the 32 in coverage sporting a "buy" or better rating. Plus, the 12-month consensus target price of $283.71 is a 17.1% premium to current levels.

That optimism is echoed in the options pits. This is per LOW's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.54 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which stands higher than 70% of annual readings.

 
Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 8:54 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM
  • The Week Ahead
 
Published on Feb 25, 2025 at 4:27 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Feb 25, 2025 at 2:49 PM
  • Technical Analysis

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) is gearing up for its fourth-quarter report, due out after the close tomorrow, Feb. 26. NVDA typically has a strong earnings showing, closing six of its last eight post-earnings sessions higher, and yet it's still sliding ahead of the event, gathering plenty of attention from investors.

The stock's upward momentum has slowed over the past few months, with concerns swirling over China's artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughs and the potential for slowing demand from key customers. Per Wolfe Research, this report is a "make or break" moment for the chip darling. 

At last glance, NVDA was down 1.8% at $127.95. The shares are headed for their third-straight loss as they fall further from their Jan. 7 record high of $153.13. The tech stock added 171.2% in 2024, and 238.9% in 2023, but since the start of 2025, it is down 4%.

NVDA Feb25

The options pits are pricing in a 15.2% post-earnings move this time around, regardless of direction. Over the last two years, the security has averaged a 9.2% next-day swing. 

Nvidia is consistently a favorite amongst options traders, yesterday topping Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks with the highest options volume in the past 10 days. So far today, 1.3 million calls and 1.2 million puts have been traded, with the most activity at the weekly 2/28 140-strike call. 

These options are reasonably priced, too. NVDA's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 70% ranks in the low 19th percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations. 

Published on Feb 25, 2025 at 12:02 PM
  • Midday Market Check

4 .

 

Published on Feb 25, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Updated on Feb 25, 2025 at 11:47 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

Bitcoin (BTC) began the year on a high note, nearly reaching the $110,000 mark. However, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is now trading at a three-month low, just above $86,000. As BTC pulls back, put traders are increasingly targeting key equities such as MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN), signaling potential challenges ahead.

At last glance, MSTR shares were down 11%, trading at $251.64. Despite a remarkable 217% year-over-year gain, the stock has declined 12.8% in 2025, largely due to a 28.4% drop over the past month. Notably, MicroStrategy stock is now trading below the $280 mark --  support level that previously served as a floor during a significant late-December pullback.

Coinbase Global stock was last seen down 7.6% to trade at $209.76, marking its seventh consecutive day of losses. The shares have shed 29% over the past month and are down 14.8% year-to-date. Additionally, COIN is now trading below the $220 level for the first time since early November.

Put traders are targeting both equities at roughly double their average intraday volume. For MSTR, the most popular option is the weekly 2/28 250-strike put, where new positions are being sold to open. Meanwhile, COIN’s favored contract is the weekly 2/28 200-strike put.

Published on Feb 25, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Updated on Feb 25, 2025 at 11:37 AM
  • Editor's Pick
 

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