Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Oct 14, 2020 at 8:47 AM
Updated on Oct 14, 2020 at 8:49 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Today's Stock Market News & Events: 10/14/2020

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI - 28,679.81) lost 157.7 points on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (SPX - 3,511.93) fell 0.6% yesterday, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC - 11,863.90) shed 0.1%. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 26.07) added 4% on Tuesday. Overall, three major market indexes closed lower yesterday as the latest earnings season kicked off, and there was quite a bit of speculation on earnings and beyond with vaccine trials being put on hold and highly anticipated big tech product launches. It was a packed day, and earnings season is just getting started!

ICYMI (in case you missed it), here are our best actionable stock ideas we dropped yesterday:


Today is a big day of earnings announcements. While the 
producer price index (PPI) is on the schedule today, investors will be zoomed in on the slew of bank-centric company financial reports slated to be released today. In fact, we released a deep-dive into the odd correlation between two big names reporting today, United Airlines and Wells Fargo, here.

For your convenience, we have rounded up the companies slated to release their earnings today, October 14:

  • ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML -- $405.15) develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems. ASML is 32.6% higher year-over-year.

    - ASML Holding will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

  • Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC -- $24.95) provides banking and financial products and services worldwide. BAC has gone down 11.6% year-over-year.

    - Bank of America will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

  • The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS -- $210.81) operates as an investment banking, securities, and investment management company worldwide. Last quarter, Goldman Sachs announced a partnership with Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and we analyzed the stock's reaction here.

    - Goldman Sachs will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

  • The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:PNC -- $112.51) operates as a diversified financial services company in the United States. PNC has remained essentially flat year-over-year.

    - PNC will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

  • The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR -- $100.27) provides personal and commercial insurance and related services primarily in the United States.

    - Progressive will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

  • U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB -- $38.42) provides various financial services in the United States. USB has remained essentially flat year-to-date. Last quarter, U.S. Bancorp battled through analyst skepticism and we analyzed the stock's reaction here.

    - U.S. Bancorp will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

  • UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH -- $331.42) operates as a diversified health care company in the United States. UNH has increased slightly by 7.9% year-over-year. Late last month, there were rumors of acquisition surrounding UnitedHealth. Here is how the stock reacted.

    - UnitedHealth will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

  • Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC -- $24.74) provides banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services.

    - Wells Fargo will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

  • Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA -- $12.72) produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products.

    - Alcoa will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

  • Sleep Number Corporation (NASDAQ:SNBR -- $59.62) provides sleep solutions and services in the United States.

    - Sleep Number will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

  • United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL -- $35.26) provides air transportation services. In an effort to provide some investor optimism last quarter, United updated their ticket policy and permanently eliminated ticket change fees. We analyzed how traders reacted to this news here.

    - United Airlines will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

  • Washington Federal, Inc. (NASDAQ:WAFD -- $22.97) operates as the bank holding company that provides lending, depository, insurance, and other banking services.

    - Washington Federal will report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

 


Again, for your convenience, we have rounded up how earnings played out for all those released yesterday, October 13:

  • AZZ, Inc. (NYSE:AZZ -- $37.34) provides galvanizing and metal coating solutions, welding solutions, specialty electrical equipment, and highly engineered services.

    - Earnings per share decreased 9.26% over the past year to $0.49, which beat the estimate of $0.43. Revenue of $203.37 million declined by 13.89% year over year, which missed the estimate of $219.02 million.


AZZ CHART

 

  • BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK -- $614.89) is a publicly owned investment manager.

    - Earnings per share were up 28.95% over the past year to $9.22, which beat the estimate of $7.77. Revenue of $4.37 billion, up 18.34% from the same period last year, which beat the estimate of $3.93 billion.


BLK CHART

 

  • Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C -- $45.88) provides various financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions. In September, this bank named consumer banking head Jane Fraser as its next chief executive officer in a historical move, making her the first woman to lead a major Wall Street bank. 

    - Shares of JPMorgan were trading lower by 1.44% Tuesday afternoon at $100.96. 


C CHART

  • Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL -- $32.64) provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally.

    - Earnings per share decreased 242.24% over the past year to -$3.30, which missed the estimate of -$3.00. Revenue of $3.06 billion decreased by 75.62% year over year, which missed the estimate of $3.11 billion.

 


DAL CHART

  • Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST -- $47.64) engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies

    -  Earnings per share were up 2.70% year over year to $0.38, which beat the estimate of $0.37. Revenue of $1.41 billion up by 2.47% year over year, which missed the estimate of $1.42 billion.


FAST CHART

 

  • First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC -- $125.61) provides private banking, private business banking, real estate lending, and wealth management services.

    - Earnings per share increased 16.03% year over year to $1.52, which beat the estimate of $1.39. Revenue of $1.00 billion up by 19.57% year-over-year, which beat the estimate of $955.96 million.


FRC CHART


JNJ CHART

 

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) researches and develops, manufactures, and sells various products in the health care field worldwide. JPM really did kick off earnings with a bang. According to one analyst, the bulk of JPMorgan's EPS beat can be attributed to a $611-million provision versus expectations of $2.8 billion, while fees contributed to the revenue beat.


JPM CHART 

  • New Oriental Education & Technology Inc. (NYSE:EDU -- $170.93) provides private educational services under the New Oriental brand in the People's Republic of China.

    - Earnings per share were down 20.14% year over year to $1.15, which beat the estimate of $1.01. Revenue of $986.37 million declined by 7.99% year over year, which beat the estimate of $956.52 million.

 

EDU CHART
All earnings and economic dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Published on Oct 14, 2020 at 8:37 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Stitch Fix, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFIX) is an online clothing and fashion company that provides a personal styling service in the U.S. This service uses professional stylists and an algorithm that constantly adapts to the customers feedback and personal preferences. Stitch Fix was founded in 2011 and went public in 2017. Since its initial public offering (IPO), the stock has more than doubled in value.

However, SFIX has seen a lot of volatility in its short history as a public company. The  stock climbed above the $50 range around two years ago, but has also explored lows in $10 area last March. The shares are currently up about 28% year-to-date, but that is not the level of growth expected from an innovative company like this. Let's evaluate the fundamentals behind SFIX stock and assess its true growth potential.

Stitch Fix has a market cap of $3.43 billion and a book value of $3.87 per share according to the most recent quarterly data. Its price-to-book value currently stands at 8.18. The company has a massive trailing price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 82.13, and no forward P/E ratio.

Stitch Fix has missed expectations on its last two earnings reports. Most recently, the company missed their quarterly earnings target by $0.28, reporting a loss of -$0.44 instead of the expected -$0.16 hit. Pre-COVID,  Stitch Fix beat earnings in the first quarter of 2020 and in the final quarter of 2019 by margins of $0.05 and $0.06, respectively. In the company's upcoming earnings report --set for after-the-close on Dec. 1 -- Stitch Fix is expected to report a loss of 20 cents, resuming its upward trajectory from the first quarter of this year.

Revenue has grown by more than $100 million annually for the past four years. In 2018, Stitch Fix grew revenue by roughly $250 million. In 2019, the company grew revenue by $350 million. Despite the decrease in revenue achieved in the last two quarters, Stitch Fix still grew revenue by $134 million in 2020.

The company’s net income has been largely inconsistent over last four years. In the last three fiscal quarters, Stitch Fix has reported a decline in net income. Stitch Fix currently has $286.49 million in cash and $164.51 million in total debt. The company’s balance sheet holds $769.43 million in total assets and $368.39 million in total liabilities. Stitch Fix has $401.04 million in total equity on the balance sheet.

In conclusion, SFIX stock is very much a speculative play for investors at this point. However, as traditional brick and mortar clothing companies are shuffling to shift their businesses to online sales, Stitch Fix already has a huge advantage due to its unique service that is already online-based (and, thus, COVID-friendly). Furthermore, the company’s consistently growing revenue are a sign that there is, in fact, a demand for the service provided. This indicates that the company is likely to continue growing its customer base.

SFIX STOCK CHART
The company carries a surprisingly good balance sheet, despite its short history. Stitch Fix has the ability to pay off its total debt with the cash it has available and still have $122 million left over on its balance sheet. Ultimately, the company has a promising business model and the strong leadership required for growth. Stitch Fix could likely start to see the growth its innovation demands sooner rather than later.

Published on Oct 14, 2020 at 8:01 AM
  • Indicator of the Week
    
Published on Oct 13, 2020 at 3:34 PM
Updated on Oct 13, 2020 at 4:16 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

 

 
Published on Oct 13, 2020 at 2:39 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of online dating specialist Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH) have fallen off from their Aug. 5 all-time high of $123. Still, the equity boasts an impressive 51.2% year-over-year lead, and has a fresh solid layer of support in place in the form of its 40-day moving average. Even better, Match stock is up 0.9% at $111.30, at last check, and just pulled back to a long-term area of support that could help propel the stock to fresh highs in the coming months. 

Specifically, MTCH just pulled back to its 70-day moving average after a lengthy period above the trendline. According to a study from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the security has experienced six similar run-ins over the past three years. MTCH saw positive returns 10 days after each one of these signals, averaging an 11% pop. A similar move from its current perch would put Match at $123.54 -- just north of the aforementioned all-time high.  

MTCH Chart October 13

There's plenty of pent-up pessimism surrounding MTCH, which could push the Tinder parent higher, should some of these bearish bets begin to unwind. For one, short interest is on the rise, up 9.6% in the last reporting period, and the 12.23 million shares sold short represent 22.2% of the stock's available float. In other words, it would take nearly four days to buy back these pessimistic positions.  

Switching gears, Match stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.45 sits in the 89th percentile of its annual range. This suggests short-term option players have rarely been more put-biased during the past 12 months.

Published on Oct 13, 2020 at 12:28 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity

To say that coronavirus has made its mark on blue-chip company Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) would be an understatement. The entertainment concern has been contending with theme park closures and layoffs for months now, and with no clear end to the pandemic in sight, there's no telling when the most magical place on earth will be able to resume normal operations.

Now, it seems Disney is shifting its focus from shuttered theme parks to one of its newer ventures -- streaming. The company announced on Monday that it was revamping its media and entertainment businesses in an attempt to rapidly grow Disney+ and its other streaming services.

In response, DIS is surging, up 4.1% at $130.13 -- poised for its highest close in almost a month. The security just recaptured its 20-day moving average, too, after weeks of being rejected by the trendline. The stock still sports a 9.9% year-to-date deficit, however, though it has managed to climb 22.8% in the last six-month period. 

DIS Chart Oct 13

The restructuring announcement has options players in a frenzy, too. So far, 202,000 calls and 44,000 puts have crossed the tape -- five times the intraday average, with call volume running in the 98th percentile of its annual range. The two most popular positions by far are the monthly October 131 and 130 calls, with positions currently being opened at the latter. This suggests these traders are betting on the $131 level as a floor for the underlying stock by the time these contracts expire this Friday, Oct. 16. 

Published on Oct 13, 2020 at 11:09 AM
Updated on Oct 13, 2020 at 11:10 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 However, separately, the company was forced to pause a clinical trial of its coronavirus vaccine candidate after a participant in the study came down with an unexplained illness. Johnson & Johnson stock is now down 1.7%, last seen trading at $149.24 this morning.
Published on Oct 13, 2020 at 9:18 AM
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Oct 13, 2020 at 9:16 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is kicking off the latest earnings season on a high note. The stock is up 0.6% at $103 this morning, after the bank company posted third-quarter profits of $2.92 per share, and $29.1 billion in revenue -- exceeding Wall Street's estimates. JPMorgan also announced 4% growth for the quarter, citing lower-than-expected credit loss provisions, and the recent trading boom. 

Now, JPM is poised for its highest close in over a month. The stock has had a positive run on the charts this month, with recent support coming in at the 10-day moving average. Month-to-date, the security is up over 6.4%, though familiar pressure at the $104 mark looms up ahead. Plus, JPM is squaring back up with its 190-day moving average -- a trendline that snuffed out its early June rally. 

Analysts have yet to comment on today's news, though the door looks open for bull notes, especially if JPM manages to take back those previously mentioned technical levels. Coming into today, 10 members of the brokerage bunch called the equity a "buy" or better, while seven said "hold," and one called it a "strong sell." The 12-month consensus price target of $116.10, on the other hand, is a solid 11.4% premium to last night's close. 

Options bulls, meanwhile, look to be fully on board, per JPM's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.13 at the the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio stands in the 72nd percentile of its annual range, implying a healthier-than-usual appetite for long calls of late. 

Published on Oct 13, 2020 at 8:55 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Is this Casino Stock a Gamble or Sure Thing?

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) is a high-end hotel resort and casino developer based out of Las Vegas. The company currently has two locations in Las Vegas and three in Macau. Its sixth and newest location is in Boston. Like every travel-adjacent stock in the stock market, WYNN stock has taken a hit since the beginning of 2020. WYNN is down more than 50% from its 52-week high of $153.41 on Jan. 21, but has also distanced itself over 50% above its 52-week low of $35.84 from March 18. This volatility is a signal of uncertainty amongst investors. A look into Wynn’s fundamentals should clarify the stock's backdrop.

Wynn Resorts has a market cap of $7.99 billion and a book value of $5.78 per share. Its price-to-book (P/B) ratio currently stands at 12.65. The company has a trailing price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 52.91 and a forward P/E ratio of 11.39.

Wynn has missed expectations on its four latest earnings reports. Most recently, the company missed their target by $1.16. They reported a loss of of $6.14 instead of the expected $4.98 hit. As for Wynn's upcoming earnings report, the company is expected to report losses -$3.78 and subsequently resume its upward trajectory from the fourth quarter of 2019. In the first quarter of this year, Wynn reported a huge earnings miss of $2.70 in EPS. The missed expectation margins were significantly smaller in subsequent fiscal quarters, Q3 and Q4, of 2019. Wynn Resorts has a trailing 12-month EPS of -$10.46.

Revenue growth was report on an annual basis from 2016 through 2018. In fact, in 2017, Wynn's revenue increased nearly $2 billion year-over-year. Wynn was able maintain its revenue level in 2019. As expected, though, Wynn's revenue decreased drastically since the beginning of 2020. Over the last 4 years, the company's net income has been largely inconsistent. Though, over the past four quarters, Wynn has consistently seen a decline in net income. According to the balance sheet, Wynn Resorts currently has $3.8 billion in cash and $12.93 billion in total debt. The company’s balance sheet shows $13.87 billion in total assets and $12.33 billion in total liabilities. Wynn's total equity stands at $1.54 billion.

Wynn Resorts has paid dividends consistently since 2010 before cutting them off completely this year. Wynn last paid a dividend of $1.00 per share. The $4.00 annual dividend Wynn paid in 2019 came at a dividend yield of 5.5%.

Wynn has obviously been impacted financially by the pandemic and subsequent travel restrictions. The damage done to the travel industry will likely take years to repair. As a long-term dividend play, there won’t likely be another opportunity to pick up Wynn stock at such a low price.

The company is likely to avoid bankruptcy, as it has already gotten through the supposed "worst" of this pandemic. Wynn opened its Las Vegas locations again in June and has current plans to accommodate its business as the coronavirus pandemic continues. CEO Matt Maddox publicly released the company’s plans to make immediate testing available at all of their resorts. Furthermore, the company plans to set up an extensive system that will keep its customers as safe as possible. Details of this plan include a specialized app and an on-site lab for testing.

In short, Wynn Resorts is a steal for long-term and dividend investors if one believes travel will resume at some point in the future.

Published on Oct 12, 2020 at 2:14 PM
Updated on Oct 12, 2020 at 2:14 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of blue chip Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) are up 1.8% at $241.07 this afternoon. However, the biopharmaceutical stock has traded sideways the past few months after hitting an all-time-high of $264.97 on July 6, and is off by 5.2% this quarter. The good news is that this pullback has the stock near a historically bullish trendline, which could help the security surge even higher in the coming weeks.

Specifically, Amgen stock just came within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average, after spending the past several months floating above the trendline. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, three similar signals have occurred during the past three years. More often than not, AMGN enjoyed positive returns one month after each signal, averaging a roughly 4% gain. From of its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put the security just above $250 -- a new record high.

AMGN 160

While the majority of analysts covering AMGN are already bullish, there is still plenty of room for upgrades and price-target hikes going forward, which could propel the equity higher. Of the 21 in coverage,  nine say "hold" or worse. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $260.79 is only a 8% premium to current levels.

For those wanting to take advantage of Amgen stock's next leg higher, options could be an interesting play. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 35% sits higher than just 28% of readings in its annual range, suggesting short-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.

Published on Oct 12, 2020 at 1:08 PM
  • Analyst Update
  • Buzz Stocks
 

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