Schaeffer's 43rd Anniversary Stock Picks in 2024

Bull Signal Says Tinder Parent Could Propel Higher

Still, there's plenty of pessimism surrounding MTCH

Deputy Editor
Oct 13, 2020 at 2:39 PM
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The shares of online dating specialist Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH) have fallen off from their Aug. 5 all-time high of $123. Still, the equity boasts an impressive 51.2% year-over-year lead, and has a fresh solid layer of support in place in the form of its 40-day moving average. Even better, Match stock is up 0.9% at $111.30, at last check, and just pulled back to a long-term area of support that could help propel the stock to fresh highs in the coming months. 

Specifically, MTCH just pulled back to its 70-day moving average after a lengthy period above the trendline. According to a study from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the security has experienced six similar run-ins over the past three years. MTCH saw positive returns 10 days after each one of these signals, averaging an 11% pop. A similar move from its current perch would put Match at $123.54 -- just north of the aforementioned all-time high.  

MTCH Chart October 13

There's plenty of pent-up pessimism surrounding MTCH, which could push the Tinder parent higher, should some of these bearish bets begin to unwind. For one, short interest is on the rise, up 9.6% in the last reporting period, and the 12.23 million shares sold short represent 22.2% of the stock's available float. In other words, it would take nearly four days to buy back these pessimistic positions.  

Switching gears, Match stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.45 sits in the 89th percentile of its annual range. This suggests short-term option players have rarely been more put-biased during the past 12 months.

 

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