Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Dec 15, 2020 at 2:46 PM
Updated on Dec 22, 2020 at 11:57 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis
 
Published on Dec 22, 2020 at 11:01 AM
Updated on Dec 22, 2020 at 11:21 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks
Today's option pits, meanwhile, are flashing ample activity on both sides of the fence. In the first hour of trading, 51,000 calls and 27,000 puts have crossed the tape --  seven times the average intraday amount and volume pacing in the highest percentile of its annual range.
Published on Dec 22, 2020 at 10:39 AM
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Dec 22, 2020 at 9:46 AM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Buzz Stocks

Has Tesla Rival Nio Flown Too Close to the Sun?

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer and Tesla (TSLA) rival Nio Inc (NYSE:NIO) is still a relatively new company, having been founded in 2014. The company developed its first electric vehicle model in 2016, and subsequently made their first model available to the public in December of 2017. NIO completed its first vehicle deliveries as recently as 2018. it doesn't have the name-brand recognition yet of Elon Musk and Tesla, but it stands to be a player in the EV market for years to come.

Nio stock has had an incredible year in 2020, gaining more than 1,100% year-to-date. To fully comprehend NIO's breakout, the shares were sitting just under $3 to start the year, and traded as high as $57.20 back in November. The stock's pullback since then has found support at its 40-day moving average, and more tailwinds could come from a shift in analyst sentiment, considering five of the seven in coverage maintain tepid "hold" ratings.

NIO Stock Chart

NIO has beat Wall Street's earnings expectations for three consecutive quarters, even amid tight margins. As for the company's next earnings report due out in 2021, Wall Street is expecting another increase in EPS to be reported.

It is difficult to sufficiently judge NIO on a purely fundamental basis due its lack of history. However, since the company first started generating sales, NIO has increased its annual revenue by about 50%. Take into account that 2020 was wrought with the Covid-19 pandemic, making the overall revenue growth even more impressive. The company’s net losses have continuously grown as a result of its growing operations, which is to be expected of a company in its growth stage like NIO is. Perhaps most concerning when reviewing NIO’s fundamentals though, is its negative equity.

Unfortunately, the Covid-19 outbreak has skewed NIO's numbers for 2020, making it more difficult to project what NIO’s growth rate will look like in 2021 and 2022. However, the incredible stock growth NIO demonstrated in 2020 would indicate that investors are still placing bets on the company growing exponentially in the coming years.

In 2020, NIO reached a huge market cap of $76 billion. However, it did so without accomplishing much other than beating analyst expectations, as noted above. The reality is that NIO stock has largely benefited from the growing hype around the EV sector and Tesla’s (TSLA) success in 2020. Tesla stock's recent growth has left a lot of investors feeling like they may have missed out in the EV sector, causing investors to place their bets on the “next best thing." The issue with this is that NIO is not Tesla. Although NIO may very well end up being one of the biggest manufacturers of electric vehicles, the company still has too many instabilities to go all in.

Overall, NIO stock seems to have promising potential, but is incredibly overpriced right now. The company has yet to prove that it is worthy of its huge market cap, so using options to decrease your exposure risk could be a prudent play.

Now is a great time to consider options buying on NIO. NIO stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) currently comes in at 99 out of 100. This scorecard is used to identify which underlying stock options have historically had underpriced or overpriced options. High SVS readings, especially readings as high as 99, indicate consistently realized greater volatility than its options have priced in -- pointing to NIO stock being a potential premium-buying candidate that options traders should definitely be watching for opportunity.

Published on Dec 22, 2020 at 9:31 AM
Updated on Dec 22, 2020 at 9:33 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Fubotv Inc (NYSE:FUBO) are extending yesterday's 26.06% rally after Needham said it sees even more upside for the stock, lifting its price target to $60 from $30 and upgrading the security to "buy" from "hold." The analyst in question said the streaming concern's recent win streak, sparked by a number of potential sports content deals, isn't over just yet, and called the security relatively inexpensive compared to its sector peers. 

The security is up 16.2% at $57.51 at last check, pacing for its fifth straight win and even more two-year highs. The security's recent climb up the charts since October has been nothing short of impressive, with the 20-day moving average capturing several pullbacks along the way. Coming into today, FUBO sported an over 455% year-to-date lead. 

The majority of analysts are already quite bullish on the stock. Prior to today, all seven in coverage considered Fubotv stock a "buy" or better. There could be room for more price-target hikes, though. The 12-month consensus price target of $38.57 is a 32.1% discount to last night's close. 

Despite this recent rally, the equity is still being heavily shorted, with bears continuing  to build their positions. The 13 million shares currently sold short make up a whopping 23.3% of the stock's available float, and would take over three days to cover at FUBO's average pace of trading. Should some of these shorts start changing their tune, it could put even more wind at the equity's back. 

Published on Dec 22, 2020 at 9:14 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Restaurant chain Wingstop Inc. (NASDAQ:WING) continues to expand its franchise locations, announcing the opening of its 1500th location in November 2020. In the company’s statement, Wingstop noted an increase in net new openings, going from 120-130 to now 135-140 net new openings for 2020.

So far in 2020, Wingstop stock has flown to a 73% gain. While the shares are a ways off their Aug. 24 all-time high of $163.59, their 200-day moving average contained the subsequent pullback. 

What's more, traders looking to speculate on WING's near-term trajectory should consider options. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 44% is in just the 9th percentile of its annual range, suggesting short-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations for the shares. In other words, Wingstop's near-term options are attractively priced at the moment.

WING Stock Chart

Investors should note that Wingstop has shown incredible fundamental growth in just the past few years. The company has grown its annual revenue by more than 250% and more-than-doubled its net income since 2016. A large part of that growth has come in 2020 amid a global pandemic that has hit the restaurant industry hard. Despite the obstacles laid out for restaurant chains this year, Wingstop added nearly $40 million to its revenue and $17 million to its net income.

Wingstop does carry a balance sheet with negative equity and considerably more debt than cash. Although that shouldn’t come as a surprise, with the company’s current focus on expanding its locations. What is a bit surprising is Wingstop stock’s high price-to-earnings ratio of 130.71. Even WING's forward price-to-earnings might seem a bit exaggerated at 89.29. However, at a market cap of just $4.27 billion, there is still plenty of room for WING stock price to increase over the coming years, especially if it continues at its current growth rate.

Wingstop stock is looking like an intriguing dividend play despite its low yield of 0.38%, with a forward dividend of $0.56. WING most recently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.14 and a special dividend payment of $5.00 per share. In Wingstop stock's short dividend history that began in 2016, WING has already paid special dividends on four different occasions, averaging one payment every year.

Wingstop stock will be closing out 2020 having paid $5.50 per share in dividends, which comes at a yield of about 3.8%. Aside from the nice appreciation in WING stock price, Wingstop stock could become a massive dividend stock if it accomplishes the expansion plans that are already in the works and paying off.

Published on Dec 22, 2020 at 7:08 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Today's Stock Market News & Events: 12/22/2020

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

The holiday-shortened week kicked off with a volatile start, as investors processed a new strain of COVID-19 in the U.K. alongside the long-awaited agreement for a $900 billion stimulus package in the U.S. Meanwhile, Moderna (MRNA) began shipping vaccine doses across the United States and Congress voted on a relief bill that could send $600 direct payments to Americans as soon as next week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI - 30,216.45) added 37.4 points on Monday. The S&P 500 Index (SPX - 3,694.92) fell 14.5 points on Monday and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC -12,742.52) fell 13.1 points during Monday's trading session. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), snapped a four-day losing streak, adding 3.6 points yesterday, and logged its highest close since November 12.

Today, investors will be unpacking a gross domestic product (GDP) revision, the latest consumer confidence index, and existing home sales data. We will see earnings from Cintas (CTAS) stock, CarMax (KMX) stock, and Neogen (NEOG) stock today, too.

For your convenience, we have rounded up the companies slated to release earnings today, December 22:

CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX -- $100.46) operates as a retailer of used vehicles in the United States. CarMax will report its third-quarter earnings before the bell today.

Cintas Corporation (NASDAQ:CTAS -- $346.13) provides corporate identity uniforms and related business services. Cintas will report its second-quarter earnings of 2021 before the bell today.

Neogen, Inc. (NASDAQ:NEO -- $54.05) operates a network of cancer-focused testing laboratories. Neogen will report its third-quarter earnings before the bell today.

Here is a quick recap of how yesterday's earnings calls played out:

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (NYSE:FDS -- $347.03) provides integrated financial information and analytical applications. Earnings per share rose 11.63% over the past year to $2.88, which beat the estimate of $2.75. Revenue of $388,206,000 higher by 5.88% from the same period last year, which beat the estimate of $387,360,000.

Calavo Growers, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVGW -- $72.08) markets and distributes avocados, prepared avocados, and other perishable foods. Earnings per share were down 24.44% year over year to $0.34, which missed the estimate of $0.64. Revenue of $234,430,000 declined by 19.76% year over year, which missed the estimate of $256,070,000.

HEICO Corporation (NYSE:HEI -- $133.09) designs, manufactures, and sells aerospace, defense, and electronic related products and services. Earnings per share decreased 27.42% over the past year to $0.45, which beat the estimate of $0.41. Revenue of $426,178,000 declined by 21.30% from the same period last year, which beat the estimate of $414,780,000.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the pace picks up with core durable goods, personal income and core inflation data due out. Plus, new home sales data and the consumer sentiment index will be released.

The U.S. stock market has a shortened schedule this week, with only three and a half trading days. On Thursday, December 24, the stock market hours will be 9:30 a.m. through 1:00 p.m. ET in observance of Christmas Eve. On Friday, December 25, the stock market will be closed in observance of Christmas.

Published on Dec 21, 2020 at 3:29 PM
Updated on Dec 21, 2020 at 5:11 PM
  • Most Active Weekly Options
  • Intraday Option Activity
A look at today's trading shows calls still outnumbering puts. So far, 18,000 calls and 11,000 puts have crossed the tape. The two most popular contracts are the monthly  December 340 call, as well as the 350 call in the same series, with positions being opened at the former. 
Published on Dec 21, 2020 at 1:11 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) are up 0.8% at $171.73 at last check, amid news that the retail giant is offering contactless pickup and at-home delivery services through Dec. 24. TGT has cooled off since its Dec. 1 record high of $181.17, with the 10-day moving average providing a close ceiling this month. However, this pullback has Target stock near a historically bullish trendline, which could serve to push the equity higher in the coming weeks -- extending its 33.8% year-to-date lead. 

More specifically, TGT just came within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average, after spending a good portion of 2020 above it. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, six similar signals have occurred during the past three years. One month after each signal, Target stock was positive 67% of the time, averaging a return of 4.1%. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put the stock up past $178, nearing its recent record levels. 

Snag_1d0c274

Though a majority of analysts are bullish, there is still room for more optimism, as six of the 18 analysts in coverage still sport a tepid "hold" rating on TGT. Elsewhere, shorts have started to pile on, with short interest up 41% during the most recent reporting period. An unwinding of these bearish bets could give the equity a boost as well. 

Now seems like a decent time to weigh in on Target stock's next move with options. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 29% sits in the low 13th percentile of its annual range. This means the stock is currently sporting attractively priced premiums at the moment. 

Published on Dec 21, 2020 at 11:09 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 So far, 66,000 calls have crossed the tape, which is seven times what's typically seen at the point. Most popular is the weekly 12/24 150-strike call, followed by the January 2021 150-strike call, with new positions being opened at the former.
Published on Dec 21, 2020 at 10:49 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) is following today's broad-market trend, though some of these losses are likely being pared by a bull note from RBC this morning. The analyst lifted its price target to $170 from $153 and upgraded the security to "outperform" from "sector perform." RBC said Walmart is well positioned to perform well in a more challenged environment, as well as a recovering post-vaccine scenario. Separately, the company just announced a free at-home return option, which it will extend beyond the holiday season in an effort to compete with Amazon (AMZN). At last check, WMT is down 0.3% at $145.43. 

The equity has been on a downward pattern since touching its all-time high of $153.66 on Dec. 1. While WMT has lost nearly 5% this month, the stock still boats a 22.3% year-to-date lead, and it appears as if the $144 level is holding out at a floor on the charts. Along with the two bull signals flashing on the charts, it also looks like Walmart stock is testing support at the 60-day moving average, which helped capture a pullback in late October. 

Coming into today, the majority of  analysts were optimistic on the stock, with 17 calling it a "buy" or better. There were still some holdouts, however. Six still call the stock a "hold" or worse. Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $162.28 is an 11.8% premium to current levels. 

Options players have been a bit more bearish than usual. Though calls still outnumber puts on an overall basis, the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.33 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands higher than 63% of readings from the past year. This implies a healthier-than-usual appetite for long puts of late. 

A look at today's trading shows 24,000 calls and 5,375 puts across the tape so far -- 1.3 times the intraday average. The most popular position by far is the weekly 12/24 147-strike call, where it looks like contracts are being bought to open, indicating that these traders expect the underlying stock to stay below the $147 mark until these contracts expire on Christmas Eve. 

 

Published on Dec 21, 2020 at 10:26 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 

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