Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 9:20 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News

Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp (NYSE:IPOA), a so-called special purchase acquisition company (SPAC) co-founded by tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya, announced that it's merging with Richard Branson's space tourism company Virgin Galactic to bring the latter to public markets. Indeed, the SPAC was originally created to help private companies bypass an initial public offering (IPO).

IPOA stock began trading publicly in the U.S. back in July, opening right around $10, and the shares have climbed slowly but steadily since, last seen at $10.70 -- up 2.5% this morning to hit fresh highs. Looking closer at the trading action around the SPAC, there was a huge uptick in volume back on May 5 that corresponded with a notable rise in the share price, suggesting a large buy order may have taken place that day.

This arrangement will make Virgin Galactic the first publicly traded human spaceflight company, as those with IPOA stock will receive a 49% stake in the company. According to the press release this morning, the deal puts a pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion on the merger, which is two-and-a-half times the expected revenue for 2023.

Many media reports are already suggesting this could spark some type of reaction from Amazon.com (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos or Tesla (TSLA) founder Elon Musk, since the former owns Blue Origin, another space tourism venture, while Musk is the CEO of space transportation specialist SpaceX. For those interested in a Virgin Galactic trip for their next potential vacation, a Reuters report from December said a 90-minute flight would cost around $250,000, and there's apparently a waiting list featuring Leonardo DiCaprio and Justin Bieber.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 9:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

RBC downgraded 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) to "sector perform" from "outperform," and slashed its price target by $31 to $176. The brokerage firm called several guidance cuts in recent quarters "unsettling," and tapped legal issues surrounding PFAS contamination as an "unquantifiable risk."

This skepticism toward 3M stock is shared by other members of the brokerage bunch, with all nine in coverage maintaining a "hold" or worse recommendation. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $179.44 is a slim 6% premium to last night's close at $169.19.

Options traders, on the other hand, have been unusually bullish toward the Dow stock. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MMM's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.96 ranks in the 100th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Drilling down, the July 200 strike is home to peak call open interest, and data from the major options exchanges confirms significant buy-to-open activity here. In other words, call buyers are betting on a breakout above $200 by front-month options expiration at the close next Friday, July 19.

The last time MMM shares closed a week above $200 was in late April -- just ahead of a massive post-earnings bear gap. More recently, the stock's rally off its early June three-year low of $159.37 was contained by its descending 50-day moving average. Today, 3M stock is down 1.9% at $165.95 in early trading. Should the equity fail to bounce back above $200 by next Friday's close, the most those call buyers stand to lose is the initial premium paid.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 10:04 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Even after online pet supplies retailer Chewy Inc (NYSE:CHWY) logged an eye-opening trading debut on June 14, industry standards require analysts from underwriting firms to wait 25 days until initiating coverage. That quiet period is now over, and a host of analysts have already come forward with ratings.

No fewer than nine brokerages initiated coverage on CHWY this morning, with a wide range of opinions. Among the bulls are J.P. Morgan Securities and UBS, which doled out the equivalent of a "buy" rating and a $42 price target. The latter waxed optimistic about the pet industry, and views Chewy as a premium to online retailer peers given "its highly visible and recurring revenue stream." William Blair also started coverage with an "outperform" rating.

Some analysts were more skeptical, with Raymond James chiming in with a "market perform" rating. Instinet, RBC, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies also started off with their versions of a "hold" rating and price targets ranging from $33 to $37. Jefferies, in a note titled "Keep This One In The Kennel," warned of competition from large retail entities like Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT), and said it will "wait for a better entry point."

At last check, CHWY is trading down 3.7% at $33.14. On the charts, Chewy stock's record high of $41.34 on its debut day has been hard to top. The shares quickly pivoted to an all-time low of $30.80 on June 25, but are still well above their initial public offering price of $22.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 10:15 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Biotech stock Check-Cap Ltd (NASDAQ:CHEK) rallied out of the gate this morning, after the firm announced positive final results for its C-Scan test, used to detect precancerous polyps in patients at risk for colon cancer. CHEK stock surged as high as $2.57 earlier, and was last seen up 6% at $2.31.

In fact, the equity is set for its first close atop its 40-day moving average -- a trendline that's served as recent pressure on the charts -- in almost two months. From a longer-term perspective, the security has been trading in a channel of lower highs and lows since mid-March, following a rejection at its 200-day moving average.

While analysts are pretty quiet on the biopharma name, the two who follow the stock are resoundingly optimistic, both calling it a "buy" or better. Plus, the consensus 12-month target price of $10.50 more than quadruples CHEK's current perch, and represents a level the equity hasn't traversed since May 2018. 

An unwinding of shorts could provide some addition tailwinds on the charts. Short interest spiked 20.1% in the last two reporting periods, and now represents 7.2% of the stock's available float. At CHEK's average pace of trading, it would take over seven days to cover all these bearish bets, leaving the door open for a short squeeze. 

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News

As we talked about in a recent Schaeffer's Stock Market Podcast, restaurant stocks have been extremely strong this year, with names like Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald's (MCD), and Chipotle (CMG) hitting fresh highs. But as many media profiles have noted in recent months, one of America's fastest growing restaurant chains (subscription required) isn't even on the public markets, that being chicken sandwich specialist Chick-Fil-A.

The privately owned company is in focus after announcing it's giving free food to anyone dressed like a cow today. The move is trying to build off the #CowAppreciationDay hashtag on social media sites like Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook-owned Instagram. Apparently this is the company's 15th annual Cow Appreciation Day, which it said brought in nearly 2 million cow-dressed customers in 2018.

Sure enough, #CowAppreciationDay was trending on Twitter at the time of this writing. Depending on how this plays out, we could see more companies try to leverage social media with similar promotions going forward -- and if so, hopefully they go better than Build-A-Bear's (BBW) "Pay Your Age" idea. We'll definitely be checking in on this hard-hitting story throughout the day, potentially even searching for my cow costume from two Halloweens ago.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 2:30 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are pacing for a third straight day in the red. In the meantime, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is gaining on "Stranger Things" buzz, chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has jumped after a bull note, and cosmetics concern e.l.f. Beauty Inc (NYSE:ELF) just got upgraded. Below we'll briefly dig into the shares of NFLX, AMD, and ELF.

NFLX Analysts Call Attention to "Stranger Things" Buzz

Wall Street analysts are praising NFLX stock today, due to the strong reception for season 3 of the company's hit series "Stranger Things" -- which I have yet to wrap up, so please no spoilers. Cowen and Company said that its proprietary survey of U.S. consumers confirms "massive and growing" popularity for the show, adding that it should help the streaming service pick up new users in the coming months. Raymond James also noted the show's "very strong start."

Netflix stock is trading up 1.5% in response, last seen at $381.95, earlier touching its highest point since the first week of May. Some recent short sellers may be concerned, since short interest on the equity shot up 21.1% in the last two reporting periods.

Price-Target Hike Lifts AMD

AMD analysts, meanwhile, are cheering the company's new Ryzen 3000 chips, launched on Sunday. Instinet hiked its price target to $37 from $33, saying it expects a global launch in September. The stock is trading up 2.3% at $32.79, which would be its second highest close this year.

Despite strong demand recently for weekly call options -- including in today's session -- near-term traders are actually quite put-skewed. This is according to Advanced Micro Devices' Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.09, which ranks in the 80th annual percentile, showing such a put-heavy setup is rare for AMD's short-term options traders.

ELF Shares Flirt With Fresh Highs on Upgrade

J.P. Morgan Securities upgraded its opinion on ELF stock to "overweight" from "neutral," and boosted its price target to $17 from $11. The shares have rocketed up 9.6% to $15.58, which sets them up for their highest close in nearly a year. This extends a red-hot run for e.l.f. Beauty, as it's outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 21 percentage points in the past two months.

Looking at ELF's own SOIR, short-term traders are extremely tilted toward puts, with the reading of 4.24 ranking in the 99th annual percentile. There's still plenty of skepticism from analysts, too, with two "strong sell" rankings on the board, leaving the door open for additional upgrades.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 3:04 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The hotel name Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc (NYSE:RHP) is eyeing its worst day since December, down 3.6% at $77.79, on a downgrade from J.P. Morgan Securities. The analyst -- which said they're exercising caution on U.S. lodging companies, given the industry's recent trends and share performance -- cut their rating to "underweight" from "neutral." The brokerage firm also slashed its RHP price target to $77 from $80, representing a discount to yesterday's close. 

The bear note has RHP set to close below the $78 region for the first time in nearly six months. Since spiking at a seven-month high above $87 in mid-May, the stock has cooled considerably, with its last attempt at a rally halted by its 80-day moving average. 

Should the rest of the brokerage bunch follow suit, the Grand Ole Opry owner could start to feel even more downward pressure. Prior to today's drubbing, RHP held four "buy" or better ratings, and two "holds." Plus, the stock's consensus 12-month price target of $90.50 is at more than a 16% premium to current levels. 

On the other hand, RHP's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 5.05 is in the 92nd percentile of its annual range. This suggests that short-term option players have rarely been more put-heavy during the past 12 months. However, it's worth noting that absolute options volume tends to run light on Ryman Hospitality shares, with peak open interest among all series at the July 75 put, home to just 104 contracts.

Published on Jul 10, 2019 at 8:57 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News

Electric automakers Nio Inc (NYSE:NIO) and Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) are on the rise this morning. For China-based NIO, the shares are set to add more than 8% at the open after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter deliveries. By the numbers, the company sent out 3,553 vehicles, compared to the top-end estimate of 3,200. Meanwhile, it's worth noting that the Wall Street Journal reported that passenger car sales in China (subscription required) rose in June for the first time in over a year.

This extends a hot streak for NIO shares. Another win today would be a seventh straight, and the pre-market gains would have them testing the $4 level for the first time since late May. At the same time, this comes after a huge sell-off from March to June that saw the equity fall from around $10.50 to $2.35. Analysts have a 12-month price target of $5.42.

As for Tesla, the stock is also set to rise after Bloomberg reported on an internal memo suggesting the company is about the increase production at its factory in Fremont, California. TSLA recently shot higher thanks to impressive second-quarter delivery and production data, helping the shares take back their 50-day moving average. The equity still sports a year-to-date deficit of almost 31%, but is gaining 2.1% in electronic trading.

In the options pits, there's a heavy build-up in front-month positions on Tesla. Specifically, the July 240, 250, and 260 calls all hold at least 22,800 contracts. Those who bought to open the calls are expecting TSLA stock to rise sharply in the coming weeks.

Published on Jul 10, 2019 at 9:22 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

In addition to its likely merger with Sprint (S)T-Mobile Us Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS) got another dose of good news, after it was reported the wireless carrier would join the S&P 500 (SPX) index next Monday. T-Mobile replaces Red Hat (RHT), which was bought out by IBM Corp (IBM) late last year. In response, TMUS is up 3.7% in electronic trading this morning.

T-Mobile stock now has its sights set on its May 20 all-time high of $80.93. The shares seem to have found support at their 80-day moving average, a trendline that has acted as support in the past. In fact, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White points out that this moving average has sparked an average one-month move of 4.1% after the last eight signals.

Over in the options pits, puts have become popular recently. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.63 ranks in the elevated 81st annual percentile. Given the equity's 18% uptrend in 2019, it's possible some of these puts are being used by shareholders as an options hedge.

Whatever the reason, it's an attractive time to purchase premium on T-Mobile stock. Its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 27% ranks in the 23rd annual percentile, indicating short-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.

Published on Jul 10, 2019 at 9:48 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) stock is up 2.4% to trade at $44.03 -- fresh off a record high of $44.13 -- after Goldman Sachs upgraded the media name to "buy" from "hold," and boosted its price target by $10 to $54 -- a more than 25% premium to last night's close. Analyst Brett Feldman said he expects CMCSA to "sustain double-digit growth ... over the next five years," amid steady increases in new broadband customers.

Analysts have been growing increasingly bullish on Comcast, with the vast majority of the 20 covering brokerages maintaining a "buy" or better rating on the stock, and not a single "sell" on the books. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $48.63 sits in uncharted territory.

Short sellers, meanwhile, have started to capitulate to the equity's upward momentum. Short interest fell 1.8% in the most recent reporting period. However, it would still take shorts more than four days to cover the remaining 69.73 million shares held by shorts, at CMCSA stock's average pace of trading. A continued round of short covering could keep the wind at the equity's back.

Looking closer at the charts, Comcast shares were already up more than 26% through Tuesday's close. More recently, the stock's 80-day moving average has served as a springboard, and a late-June bounce off this rising trendline has CMCSA up nearly 5% so far this month.

Published on Jul 10, 2019 at 2:10 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The Dow hit record highs today following dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Three names in particular making moves are communications solutions provider Vislink Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:VISL), offshore drilling issue McDermott International (NYSE:MDR), and drugmaker Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc (NYSE:AMRX). Here's what's moving the shares of VISL, MDR, and AMRX.

VISL Explodes 330%

VISL stock is the biggest winner on the Street today, last seen trading up 330% at $7.11, after the company secured a $2.8 million deal with the U.S. Army. Not surprisingly, this would mark the best day ever for the shares. They were trading at a record low of $1.26 as recently as May 20, but today tapped an annual high of $8.00. We'll see if this can bring in some analyst attention for Vislink Technologies, since right now no analysts are in coverage on the stock.

Saudi Aramco Contract Boosts MDR Shares

MDR shares have jumped 12.9% to $10.52 -- on pace for their highest close since an October bear gap -- after the company landed a $1.5 billion contract from Saudi Aramco. This has the shares set to topple recent resistance from the 200-day moving average, but still leaves them down 44.1% in the past year. More recently, MDR has spent 2019 bouncing between support in the $6 region and resistance around $10.

The move should also be good news for recent McDermott options traders, who've picked up calls at a rapid pace. Specifically, the 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) comes in at 4.97, showing almost five long calls opened for every put in recent weeks.

AMRX Slides to New Low on Forecast Woes

AMRX has lost a third of its value today, last seen trading at $4.51, earlier hitting a record low of $4.36. Sparking the sell-off was the company's lowered full-year forecast due to more uncertainty around supply of epinephrine shots. The company revealed a restructuring plan to help it save costs, as well. Today's pullback brings Amneal Pharmaceuticals' year-to-date loss to close to 67%.

Despite this technical weakness, there is a lot of optimism left among covering analysts. In fact, four firms tracking AMRX still have "strong buy" ratings, and the average 12-month price target is $12.73 -- roughly triple the equity's current price.

Published on Jul 11, 2019 at 9:15 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) stock is up 1.6% in electronic trading, after the air carrier reported better-than-expected second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share on a record $12.5 billion in revenue, in line with the consensus estimate. DAL also said unit revenue rose 3.8%, and raised its full-year profit forecast and quarterly dividend payment.

DAL stock has a history of positive earnings reactions -- closing higher in the subsequent session in seven of the last eight quarters -- and options traders were expecting more of the same this time around. The security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.69 ranks in the 28th annual percentile, showing short-term traders are more call-heavy than usual.

While calls from the weekly 7/12 options series were popular yesterday, the July 57.50 and 60 calls are home to peak front-month open interest. Data from the major options exchanges confirms buy-to-open activity at the two strikes, meaning options bulls expect Delta stock's upside to continue through the close next Friday, July 19, when the series expires.

Analysts have yet to chime in after Delta's earnings report, though the bulk of them already maintain a bullish position on the airline stock. While nine of 14 covering brokerages call DAL a "buy" or better, the average 12-month price target of $67.39 is a 13.3% premium to last night's close at $59.47.

Since bouncing sharply from its 120-day moving average in early June, Delta Air Lines stock is up almost 16%. This rally has brought the shares up to the round $60 mark -- a ceiling for DAL in recent years. This key level will be in focus once again today, with the equity set to open above here at $60.42.

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