Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jul 8, 2019 at 9:46 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Exactly one week after inking a deal with Japanese chipmaker Kokusai Electric, tech stock Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) is suffering a pullback. The catalyst behind this morning's decline looks to be a bear note out D.A. Davidson, specifically a downgrade to "neutral" from "buy" and price-target cut to $45 from $55.

The brokerage firm issued a sector-wide downgrade for semiconductor stocks, saying the delay in memory recovery, falling prices, and geopolitical turmoil with China is weighing heavy. In response, AMAT was last seen down 1.9% at $43.14.

Overall analyst attention had been optimistic ahead of today's note. Specifically, 11 of the 17 covering firms sport a "buy" or "strong buy" recommendation, with just six "hold" and zero "sell" ratings accounted for. Further, the stock's average 12-month price target of $51.10 comes in 16.2% above Friday's close of $43.98.

Technically, Applied Materials stock has climbing the charts long term. During the month of May, however, the shares repeatedly pulled back near the $39 floor, which ran in line with the 200-day moving average. Year-over-year the stock remains just below breakeven, but year-to-date boasts a 34.3% lead.

Published on Jul 8, 2019 at 9:53 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Two biotech names are making a run up the Nasdaq charts this morning. First there's Sangamo Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SGMO), up 10% to trade at $12.53, after the gene therapy specialist reported positive early-stage results for its hemophilia treatment developed with Pfizer (PFE). An analyst at Cowen and Company said that while the data is encouraging, more follow-ups are needed to fully gauge the drug's long-term impact.

Sangamo Therapeutics stock has used this news to climb just south of $13, an area that contained an early-April bull gap. Prior to today, SGMO was trading just below its year-to-date breakeven point. And barring a dramatic pivot the next four days, the drug stock is staring at its fourth-straight weekly win.

A short squeeze could power more gains. Short interest is at its highest point since mid February, and accounts for 18.8% of SGMO's total available float, and more than eight days' worth of pent-up buying power, at the stock's average pace of trading.  

Then there's Prevail Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:PRVL), up 8% to trade at $11.35, after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted 'fast-track' designation for the company's Parkinson's disease treatment. Dosing will begin in the second half of 2019. Prevail Therapeutics stock had its initial public offering (IPO) on June 10, pricing at $17 per share. PRVL raced as high as $16.90 on June 24, but prior to today, had turned in only one positive session since, and has yet to reach $17.

Published on Jul 8, 2019 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Catalyst Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:CBIO) were up in early market trading, after the drugmaker announced its treatment, MarzAA, successfully reduced bleeding episodes in patients with hemophilia during a mid-stage study. However, unlike sector peer Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), CBIO stock quickly reversed course to trade lower. The stock is down 6.3% at $8.72, just coming off Friday's three-month highs. 

In fact, the equity was enjoying a serious surge on the charts before today. Since bottoming out at a year-to-date low of $6.92 in early June, CBIO not only managed to string together four consecutive weekly wins, but just racked up a 26.3% weekly surge -- the biggest since an early April spike. Now, the stock is trading back below its 200-day moving average -- a trendline CBIO toppled on Friday. 

While analysts are pretty quiet on the biopharma name, all four in coverage give it a "buy" or better rating. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target is more than three times CBIO's current price, at $27.25 -- a region the area hasn't touched since before a massive June 2018 bear gap

While shorts are jumping off the bearish bandwagon in droves, down 21.6% in the last two reporting periods, the 920,000 shares sold short still represent almost a quarter of the stock's float. Plus, it would take six days to cover these pessimistic positions, at the security's average pace of trading.

What's more, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.14 is at the bottom of its annual range, meaning short-term option players haven't been more call-heavy during the past 12 months. 

Published on Jul 8, 2019 at 11:44 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

With Wall Street still expecting the Fed to cut interest rates at its meeting this month, brokerage firm BMO is considering what that could mean for some of the smaller banks. Specifically, in a note this morning analysts called out regional bank Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN), suggesting an easing in monetary policy could be bad news for the shares of HBAN, particularly focusing on its negative impact for the company's net interest margin (NIM).

For Ohio-based HBAN, BMO cut its rating to "underperform" from "market perform," saying it's concerned about the company's profitability outlook given the NIM struggles. The brokerage firm said it prefers Regions Financial (RF) instead, while adding KeyCorp (KEY) should report a solid quarter. Meanwhile, KBW last night cut its price target on Huntington to $14 from $14.50.

The shares are trading down 0.6% in response, last seen at $13.84. This still leaves them just above the 200-day moving average that they finally overcame two weeks ago, after long-term resistance at the trendline.

There's been unusual interest in long puts on HBAN in recent weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio across these exchanges is 2.23, and ranks in the 92nd annual percentile.

Another small bank to get hit with a bear note is Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBSH). Raymond James downgraded its opinion to "underperform" from "market perform," joining the general opinion on the Street. That is, seven analysts have "hold" ratings, and two others have "sell" and "strong sell" recommendations, versus no "buy" endorsements.

CBSH stock was last seen trading down 2.2% at $59.29, holding just below the 200-day moving average which has served as strong resistance this year. The shares have shed 4.7% over the past 12 months, and short sellers have been moving in. Short interest jumped 40.5% in the last two reporting periods, now accounting for 12.1 days' worth of buying power, based on average daily trading volumes.

Published on Jul 8, 2019 at 12:43 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:RYTM) are getting a boost today, after Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage on the drugmaker with a "buy" rating and a $35 price target -- a more than 60% premium to the stock's current perch. The rating comes just weeks after the stock hit a 14-month low of $20.64, and has RYTM on track to close above its 10-day moving average for the first time since late May.

In fact, the stock, which is now trading up 3.5% at $21.84, hit a two-week high earlier before easing back. Looking further back, RYTM has struggled on the charts, still 19.1% lower year-to-date. While the security has managed to find its footing atop the $21 region, the $22 area has acted as resistance on the charts of late. 

Three analysts agree with Canaccord's "buy" rating, while one brokerage firm calls the stock a "hold." However, the consensus 12-month target price of $37.86 exceeds Canaccord's estimate, and sits in a region never before touched by the security. 

Short sellers started to cash out during the equity's recent technical struggles, with short interest down 6.5% in the latest reporting period. However, the 1.46 million shares sold short still represent a solid 7.7% of the stock's available float, or 13.3 times the average daily pace of trading.

Published on Jul 8, 2019 at 2:14 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

As most will know by now, the U.S. Women's National team won its second-straight and fourth overall FIFA Women's World Cup yesterday, defeating Netherlands 2-0. The event drew an 10.0 overnight metered market rating, more than the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup Final between France and Croatia. 

The U.S. Soccer Federation is sponsored by Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), which is conveniently the top stock on the Dow today by a wide margin. At last check, Nike stock was up 1.4% to trade at $88.05, on track for its third-straight win and trading at two-month highs. The shares have filled their early-May bear gap, and are now eyeing their April 18 all-time high of $90.

In the options pits, traders have been targeting puts. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.98 ranks in the 72nd annual percentile. So while calls have outnumbered puts on an absolute basis, the rate of put buying relative to call buying has been accelerated.

Shifting gears to today though, call trading has picked up. Leading the charge is the August 85 call, but there are also new positions being opened at the weekly 7/12 87-strike call. Buyers of the latter are clearly banking on Nike stock to hold above this newly established level by the time options expire later this week.

Now could be a good time to speculate with options. NKE's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 17% is in the 3rd percentile of its annual range. This means near-term options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.

Published on Jul 8, 2019 at 2:58 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The broader U.S. stock market is lower today, headlined by a pullback in Apple shares. Three names to watch are Chinese wealth management firm Noah Holdings Limited (ADR) (NYSE:NOAH), along with healthcare companies Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc (NASDAQ:ITCI) and Coherus BioSciences Inc (NASDAQ:CHRS). Let's take a look at how the shares of NOAH, ITCI, and CHRS are trading today.

NOAH Shares Sell Off on Investor Update

NOAH is getting crushed today after the company announced that its "affiliated entity" Shanghai Gopher Asset Management provided financial services for companies related to Camsing International -- whose controlling shareholder was just arrested by Chinese police. As traders consider this news, the stock is trading down 20.4% at $35.63, putting it right near its 52-week low of $34.20 from October.

While Noah Holdings is on the short-sale restricted list (SSR) due to today's losses, many short sellers already took action before today. By the numbers, 10.5% of the equity's float is held by short sellers, accounting for 10.8 days' worth of buying power, based on average daily trading volumes.

Trial Update Sends ITCI to New Low

ITCI shares were last seen down 21.3% at $10.59, earlier hitting a two-year low of $10.09, after the company's bipolar depression drug failed one of two late-stage studies. The stock has lost almost half its value in the past 12 months, and negative analyst notes could come through to drive it even lower. That's because right now all five covering brokerage firms have "strong buy" recommendations, and the average 12-month price target is up at $29.50.

Some may be speculating on more downside, based on today's options activity. New positions are opening at the August 7.50 put, and most have crossed at the ask price, hinting at buy-to-open activity.

JPMorgan Stands By CHRS Stock After Pullback

CHRS stock is down 18.5% at $18.54, due to disappointing preliminary quarterly sales for its infection treatment Udenyca. Coherus BioSciences stock was on a strong uptrend before today, hitting a two-year high of $23.43 on July 3. Right now the shares are pacing for their first close below the 50-day moving average since April.

Wall Street was very bullish on the equity coming into today, with all five in coverage saying it was a "strong buy." And J.P. Morgan Securities told investors already that today's sell-off was "overdone" and reiterated its "overweight" rating and $33 price target. That analyst said the company's sales update for Udenyca was only slightly below his target.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 9:20 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News

Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp (NYSE:IPOA), a so-called special purchase acquisition company (SPAC) co-founded by tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya, announced that it's merging with Richard Branson's space tourism company Virgin Galactic to bring the latter to public markets. Indeed, the SPAC was originally created to help private companies bypass an initial public offering (IPO).

IPOA stock began trading publicly in the U.S. back in July, opening right around $10, and the shares have climbed slowly but steadily since, last seen at $10.70 -- up 2.5% this morning to hit fresh highs. Looking closer at the trading action around the SPAC, there was a huge uptick in volume back on May 5 that corresponded with a notable rise in the share price, suggesting a large buy order may have taken place that day.

This arrangement will make Virgin Galactic the first publicly traded human spaceflight company, as those with IPOA stock will receive a 49% stake in the company. According to the press release this morning, the deal puts a pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion on the merger, which is two-and-a-half times the expected revenue for 2023.

Many media reports are already suggesting this could spark some type of reaction from Amazon.com (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos or Tesla (TSLA) founder Elon Musk, since the former owns Blue Origin, another space tourism venture, while Musk is the CEO of space transportation specialist SpaceX. For those interested in a Virgin Galactic trip for their next potential vacation, a Reuters report from December said a 90-minute flight would cost around $250,000, and there's apparently a waiting list featuring Leonardo DiCaprio and Justin Bieber.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 9:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

RBC downgraded 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) to "sector perform" from "outperform," and slashed its price target by $31 to $176. The brokerage firm called several guidance cuts in recent quarters "unsettling," and tapped legal issues surrounding PFAS contamination as an "unquantifiable risk."

This skepticism toward 3M stock is shared by other members of the brokerage bunch, with all nine in coverage maintaining a "hold" or worse recommendation. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $179.44 is a slim 6% premium to last night's close at $169.19.

Options traders, on the other hand, have been unusually bullish toward the Dow stock. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MMM's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.96 ranks in the 100th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Drilling down, the July 200 strike is home to peak call open interest, and data from the major options exchanges confirms significant buy-to-open activity here. In other words, call buyers are betting on a breakout above $200 by front-month options expiration at the close next Friday, July 19.

The last time MMM shares closed a week above $200 was in late April -- just ahead of a massive post-earnings bear gap. More recently, the stock's rally off its early June three-year low of $159.37 was contained by its descending 50-day moving average. Today, 3M stock is down 1.9% at $165.95 in early trading. Should the equity fail to bounce back above $200 by next Friday's close, the most those call buyers stand to lose is the initial premium paid.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 10:04 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Even after online pet supplies retailer Chewy Inc (NYSE:CHWY) logged an eye-opening trading debut on June 14, industry standards require analysts from underwriting firms to wait 25 days until initiating coverage. That quiet period is now over, and a host of analysts have already come forward with ratings.

No fewer than nine brokerages initiated coverage on CHWY this morning, with a wide range of opinions. Among the bulls are J.P. Morgan Securities and UBS, which doled out the equivalent of a "buy" rating and a $42 price target. The latter waxed optimistic about the pet industry, and views Chewy as a premium to online retailer peers given "its highly visible and recurring revenue stream." William Blair also started coverage with an "outperform" rating.

Some analysts were more skeptical, with Raymond James chiming in with a "market perform" rating. Instinet, RBC, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies also started off with their versions of a "hold" rating and price targets ranging from $33 to $37. Jefferies, in a note titled "Keep This One In The Kennel," warned of competition from large retail entities like Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT), and said it will "wait for a better entry point."

At last check, CHWY is trading down 3.7% at $33.14. On the charts, Chewy stock's record high of $41.34 on its debut day has been hard to top. The shares quickly pivoted to an all-time low of $30.80 on June 25, but are still well above their initial public offering price of $22.

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 10:15 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Biotech stock Check-Cap Ltd (NASDAQ:CHEK) rallied out of the gate this morning, after the firm announced positive final results for its C-Scan test, used to detect precancerous polyps in patients at risk for colon cancer. CHEK stock surged as high as $2.57 earlier, and was last seen up 6% at $2.31.

In fact, the equity is set for its first close atop its 40-day moving average -- a trendline that's served as recent pressure on the charts -- in almost two months. From a longer-term perspective, the security has been trading in a channel of lower highs and lows since mid-March, following a rejection at its 200-day moving average.

While analysts are pretty quiet on the biopharma name, the two who follow the stock are resoundingly optimistic, both calling it a "buy" or better. Plus, the consensus 12-month target price of $10.50 more than quadruples CHEK's current perch, and represents a level the equity hasn't traversed since May 2018. 

An unwinding of shorts could provide some addition tailwinds on the charts. Short interest spiked 20.1% in the last two reporting periods, and now represents 7.2% of the stock's available float. At CHEK's average pace of trading, it would take over seven days to cover all these bearish bets, leaving the door open for a short squeeze. 

Published on Jul 9, 2019 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News

As we talked about in a recent Schaeffer's Stock Market Podcast, restaurant stocks have been extremely strong this year, with names like Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald's (MCD), and Chipotle (CMG) hitting fresh highs. But as many media profiles have noted in recent months, one of America's fastest growing restaurant chains (subscription required) isn't even on the public markets, that being chicken sandwich specialist Chick-Fil-A.

The privately owned company is in focus after announcing it's giving free food to anyone dressed like a cow today. The move is trying to build off the #CowAppreciationDay hashtag on social media sites like Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook-owned Instagram. Apparently this is the company's 15th annual Cow Appreciation Day, which it said brought in nearly 2 million cow-dressed customers in 2018.

Sure enough, #CowAppreciationDay was trending on Twitter at the time of this writing. Depending on how this plays out, we could see more companies try to leverage social media with similar promotions going forward -- and if so, hopefully they go better than Build-A-Bear's (BBW) "Pay Your Age" idea. We'll definitely be checking in on this hard-hitting story throughout the day, potentially even searching for my cow costume from two Halloweens ago.

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