Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jun 7, 2021 at 10:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

This morning, construction name US Concrete Inc (NASDAQ:USCR) agreed to be bought by Vulcan Materials (VMC) for $74 per share in cash, a move that was unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies. That's a nearly 30% premium to USCR's Friday closing price of $57.14, and a receipt that totals around $1.29 billion. In response, US Concrete stock is flying up the chart, last seen 27.8% higher to trade at $73.01.

After a month of closing beneath the $60 mark, with added pressure from the 80-day moving average, today's positive price action has the security roaring back toward its March 31, three-year high of $78.99. Already up a stellar 173% year-over-year coming into today, USCR is adding big numbers to its 84% 2021 lead.

A shift in the options pits could propel the equity higher. This is per U.S. Concrete stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which sits in the 91st percentile of its annual range. This suggests long puts are being picked up at a faster-than-usual pace. 

Now seems like a good opportunity to weigh in on USCR's next move with options. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 47% sits higher than just 1% of all other readings in its annual range, suggesting options players are pricing in extremely low volatility expectations at the moment -- a boon for premium buyers.

Published on Jun 7, 2021 at 8:51 AM
Updated on Jun 7, 2021 at 9:11 AM
  • Monday Morning Outlook

As long as the SPX trades within the channel in place since mid-November that I have displayed week after week, it is a win for the bulls, as the lower and upper boundary of this channel is rising on a daily basis, implying support and resistance levels move higher daily… even if the SPX breaks below its lower channel boundary, another area of formidable support lies between 4,050-4,100.”

          - Monday Morning Outlook, June 1, 2021

The S&P 500 (SPX - 4,229.89) has not rewarded bulls or bears since a tri-star doji pattern in late April, followed by a move back into a channel in place since mid-November. The only exception were the most prescient short-term timers that turned bearish at the May 7 close, and bullish at the May 12 and/or May 19 closes.

The benchmark’s price action since mid-April is best described as sloppy, with a series of short-term peaks and valleys, and a couple periods of sideways action. There have also been story lines, with sector rotation being one of them, as well as a rather impressive resurgence of “meme stocks” such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Blackberry (BB), Gamestop (GME), and Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY), all of which are highly shorted. Plus, trading opportunities for those focused on individual stocks and/or sectors have been plentiful, amid the chaotic broader-market action.

Since May 13, all SPX closes have been contained inside the channel I have included in this commentary. This might be considered a win for the bulls, though, as I described last week. With that being said, the bottom of this channel as we enter this week’s trading is at 4,148, with the upward-sloping 50-day moving average currently sitting at 4,138. At the end of the week, the bottom boundary of the channel is at 4,166.

The upward boundary of the channel – or the higher levels of potential resistance with the passage of time -- is at 4,283, with Friday’s upper boundary at the round 4,300 century mark. However, note that the SPX failed to take out this year’s early May closing high of 4,233 last week, which is another level to tune into.

newmmochart1

The Federal Reserve will soon begin selling off the corporate bonds and exchange-traded funds it amassed last year through an emergency-lending vehicle set up to contain the Covid-19 pandemic’s economic fallout.  The vehicle, known as the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, or SMCCF, held $5.21 billion of bonds from companies including Whirlpool, Walmart and Visa as of April 30. In addition, it held $8.56 billion of exchange-traded funds that hold corporate debt, such as the Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF.”

          - The Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2021

The SPX’s price action can be interpreted as resilient in the context of the news flow. In other words, the Fed has hinted that it is almost time to talk about tapering mortgage and treasury bond purchases. Such talks were followed by a statement on Wednesday that the Fed will begin to gradually sell off the corporate bonds and exchange-traded funds (ETF) it began acquiring last year, in an effort to shore up credit markets amid the Covid-19 pandemic.  

While the stock market has lost some steam amid the Fed headlines, it might be discouraging to bears that it has not aggressively declined in response to those statements. In fact, the SPX comes into this week just three points below its early May, all-time closing high. This is important, as some bears blame the Fed for manipulating stocks higher with its easy-money policy and aggressive actions last year to ensure the viability of credit markets. Even the specific equities and ETF mentioned in the Wall Street Journal excerpt above took last week’s news in stride. 

Discussions about SPX component short interest being at extremely low levels that preceded a 2007 bear market, as well as notable corrections in 2011 and 2012, are still worth keeping on your radar as the Fed moves on to being less supportive. If market participants decide the economy cannot thrive amid a less supportive Fed, you will see the SPX’s technical backdrop deteriorate. As it stands, a reopening economy amid vaccine rollouts in the U.S. and abroad seems to be more significant than the Fed’s tapering talks.

On the volatility front, a couple of graphs could be hinting at lower volatility in the weeks ahead. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 16.42) retreated below its 2021 half closing high at 18.60, after popping above it on Thursday morning. It wasn’t long after I tweeted the comment above that the SPX rallied for the rest of the day and through Friday. Per the chart below, the 18.60 area acted as resistance last week, which is the first step to achieving a new low in 2021. In order to reach that low, it must move below 15.38.

MMO 0604 2

The following chart gives me reason to believe lower volatility and higher equity prices are on the immediate horizon. Note on the graph below that large speculators on VIX futures have their smallest net short position since June 2020. 

This group of traders is usually short the VIX futures market, so I look at the net short position relative to the historical past. As the positioning of this group is usually extremely wrong, one can make the case for lower volatility expectations in the near term.

In other words, the VIX has moved higher when this group has had an abnormally large short position on VIX futures. But when they move into a rare net long position, or an unusually small net short position, lower volatility tends to follow. In fact, note on the graph below that the VIX declined in June through August last year, amid a small net short position on VIX futures at the beginning of the decline.

Lower volatility and higher stock prices might surprise seasonality traders with the “sell in May and go away” mentality.  

MM0 0604 3

Todd Salamone is Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research

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Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 3:57 PM
Updated on Jun 7, 2021 at 8:28 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Jun 7, 2021 at 7:40 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Today's Stock Market News & Events: 6/7/2021

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

There isn't much in the way of earnings this second week of June, as the tail-end of earnings season comes to a close. This week starts off relatively slow as well, though Thursday will bring a deluge of economic data. Consumer data will be highlighted throughout the week, starting with today's consumer credit report, which could be interesting as the economy continues to reopen and mask requirements are lifted. Investors will also be eyeing the Federal budget balance. 

A few more earnings reports will trickle in next week as earnings season starts to wind down. Some highlights include quarterly reports from Chewy (CHWY), Dave & Buster's (PLAY), RH (RH), and Signet Jewelers (SIG).

The week will start off slow today with the consumer credit report.

The following public companies are slated to release quarterly earnings reports today, June 7:

G-III Apparel Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:GIII -- $31.44) designs, sources, and markets women's and men's apparel. G-III Apparel will report its Q1 earnings of 2021 before the bell today.

Coupa Software Inc. (NASDAQ:COUP -- $230.23) provides cloud-based business spend management platform. Coupa Software will report its Q1 earnings of 2021 after the market closes today.

HealthEquity Inc. (NASDAQ:HQY -- $81.10) provides technology-enabled services platforms to consumers and employers in the United States. HealthEquity will report its Q1 earnings of 2021 after the market closes today.

Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL -- $48.70) designs, develops, and sells analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, and embedded and standalone integrated circuits. Marvell will report its Q1 earnings of 2021 after the market closes today.

REV Group Inc. (NYSE:RVLV -- $56.51) operates as an online fashion retailer for consumers. REV Group will report its Q1 earnings of 2021 after the market closes today.

Stitch Fix Inc. (NASDAQ:SFIX -- $55.52) sells a range of apparel, shoes, and accessories through its Website and mobile application in the United States. Stitch Fix will report its Q3 earnings of 2021 after the market closes today

Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE:MTN -- $333.38) operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. Vail Resorts will report its Q3 earnings of 2021 after the market closes today.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, Tuesday will bring job openings and trade balance data. All economic dates listed here are tentative and subject to change.

 

Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 4:52 PM
  • Strategies and Concepts

For over 15 months, investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally in the U.S. stock market. Since the widely followed S&P 500 hit its pandemic low on March 23, 2020, the SPX has surged back by as much as 88%. To put this figure into context, the very long-term average annual total return (including dividends) for the stock market is about 7%.

But for some retail investors, these gains would represent peanuts.

Beginning in January of 2021, retail traders communicating on Reddit and a handful of other social media platforms began piling into stocks that were heavily shorted by institutional investors and/or had very small floats (the amount of tradable shares). By purchasing shares and call options in these stocks, retail investors were able to enact short squeezes, leading to skyrocketing share prices.

This rapid surges in these specific stocks followed by their equally rapid declines are the result of retail speculation. Traders were not buying shares of GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) because there was a belief that the company had a hidden path to growth that would not only reverse its fortunes, but also revolutionize the gaming industry.

As in all historical instances of speculative manias, traders bought securities that are on the rise because the price was on the rise, and these traders were counting on their ability to sell those shares at a significantly higher price. That kind of dynamic in the stock market is not sustainable and, thus, the bubble always bursts.

There is more to the meme stock mania than sheer momentum alone, though. The day traders of Reddit’s thread titled r/WallStreetBets believed that GameStop stock was fertile ground because so many professional investors were shorting GME. These traders believed that through force of numbers from the retail crowd, they would be able to squeeze out the short sellers and force GME pricing even higher. That plan actually worked -- but just for a few days.

Though many of these meme stocks -- companies that have been lauded for their popularity on social media, rather than their actual operating performance -- have given back most of their gains from earlier this year, there are three meme stocks that have held strong on profits for retail traders in 2021.

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc (AMC): AMC was piled into by Reddit-based traders for essentially the same reasons as GameStop. AMC Entertainment stock had a higher level of short interest and a compelling draw for a short squeeze in late January. AMC Entertainment stock increased by nearly tenfold since becoming a meme stock.

BlackBerry Limited (NYSE:BB): In the first four weeks of January 2021, BlackBerry stock nearly quadrupled, hitting a 10-year high, apparently driven by aggressively bullish retail investors in the aforementioned r/WallStreetBets group on Reddit. BlackBerry stock has more than tripled since becoming a meme stock.

GameStop (GME): GameStop became the most publicized meme stock beginning in January of 2021 when CME shares spiked hundreds of dollars in a matter of days. Users on the subreddit, r/WallStreetBets, began buying GME en masse after traders learned that hedge fund had shorted GameStop stock over 150%.

Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK): As Nokia has been playing a major role in 5G deployment globally, NOK became a targeted “meme stock” by Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets due to the fact that prominent hedge funds were heavily shorted Nokia stock, owing to the global industrial slowdown.

Sundial Growers Inc. (NASDQ:SNDL): Sundial Growers stock has more than doubled in value this year, but this is really primarily due to the hype from r/Wallstreetbets, causing SNDL to become a meme stock.

Tilray, Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY):  Tilray is a business with great foundations in the cannabis industry that is still only at its early stages. Tilray stock on the riskier side of investments, but the potential for high returns can come with this stock. Because of that, r/WallStreetBets locked it onto their meme stock list back in January. TLRY's stock price was hanging out around the $9 per share mark for a number of months prior to shooting up to a peak of $67 in February 2021. This spike was quickly followed by a 50% drop in the stock price which looked an awful lot like a pump and dump.

Here is a quick overview of how meme stocks "work:"

In the first phase of becoming a meme stock, a handful of traders/investors need to believe that a particular stock is undervalued and begin to buy that stock in large quantities. This causes the stock price to slowly begin to increase. Once phase one is completed, the traders/investors who are paying close attention to the market begin to notice the significant increase in trading volume on the stock. This causes more and more individuals to begin buying into the stock, causing the stock price to skyrocket.

By the time we reach the FOMO (fear of missing out) phase, word about the stock has spread like wildfire across social media and online forums. Thus, the fear of missing out takes hold and even more retail investors join in on the ride up. Inevitably, though, after a few days, buying peaks and the early adopters begin to cash out. Similar to the buying phase, the selling phase looks a lot like a chain reaction as fear sets in and the stock price plummets.

Because of this meme stock cycle, it is primarily the early adopters who really turn a profit from these trending meme stocks. Once the meme stock cycle enters into the FOMO phase, it’s likely too late to make a profit despite that being the exact point when retail traders really buy into the trade.

Keep in mind that the meme stocks are not a class of investments that are covered in any textbook. Meme stocks are really just a category of stocks that have seen rapid growth and high levels of chatter on social media channels including Reddit, TikTok, and Twitter. The valuation may not (and often times does not) line up with the price changes or the hype surrounding the given stock.

Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 3:11 PM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown

Though the week was a short one with markets closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day, there was still plenty going on to keep investors on the edge of their seats. Tuesday saw the Dow lock in its fourth-straight win to kick off the month of June, as U.S. Covid-19 cases continued to drop while vaccination rates accelerated. By Wednesday, the blue-chip index extended its lead even more, while all three major indexes logged muted wins as inflation fears continued to stoke investors' anxieties. The Dow started Thursday with a triple-digit drop, but a rebound in reopening plays and "meme stocks" helped the index pare a majority of losses by the afternoon. Closing out the holiday shortened week, the major benchmarks are eyeing weekly wins, thanks to a better-than-expected drop in the unemployment rate.

Billion-Dollar Deals, Mergers, and Partnerships

There was a host of billion-dollar deal, merger, and partnership news that had investors excited. Cloud name Cloudera (CLDR) announced it will be acquired by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice for a receipt of $5.3 billion. E-tail giant Etsy (ETSY) announced it will be buying Depop, a fashion brand catering to Gen-Z tastes, for $1.63 billion, in an attempt to attract younger customers. Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria are still making headlines since announcing their merger, and at least one analysts hit the former with a bull note in response, saying Tilray stands to have plenty of post-merger strength. Lastly, Casey's General Stores (CASY) partnered up with Uber Technologies' (UBER) Uber Eats to provide delivery from over 750 locations, seven days per week.

 

"Meme Stocks" Make a Comeback

It looks like "meme stocks" are primed for another run, as this week saw plenty of action among names heavily targeted by retail traders on sites like Reddit. Marijuana name Sundial Growers (SNDL) is one such stock, which tacked on 55% in a week. Blackberry (BB), an old favorite, also returned to the spotlight. The tech icon has added nearly 200% year-over-year, and was the second most mentioned stock on Reddit's WallStreetBets forum. Last, but certainly not least, is the forum's favorite name, AMC Entertainment (AMC). The movie theater operator shot up 38% on Wednesday, though traders were dealt a blow after AMC raised more than $230 million in share sale to Mudrick Capital.

How the SPX Might Buck the Summer Doldrums

Earnings season is nearing its end, though reports from Chewy (CHWY), Dave & Buster's (PLAY), RH (RH), and Signet Jewelers (SIG). Plus, a deluge of economic data is due out, including consumer data, jobless claims data, and the latest Federal budget balance sheet. In the meantime, see whether or not the S&P 500 (SPX) can buck the "Summer Doldrums" this year.

Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 10:36 AM
Updated on Jun 4, 2021 at 1:12 PM
  • Buzz Stocks
That shift seems to be already underway. So far today, 30,000 calls have crossed the tape, which is 25 times what is typically seen at this point. Most popular is the expiring 6/4 220-strike call, followed by the 215-strike call in the same weekly series, with new  positions being opened at both. Buyers of these options expect even more upside for DOCU by the end of the day, when these contracts expire.
Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 12:35 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

Breaking Down a Busy Week of Weed Stocks

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Welcome back to our weekly series, Schaeffer's Cannabis Stock News Update, where we recap what happened in the world of marijuana stocks last week and look ahead to how the cannabis industry continues to take shape in 2021. But before we whiparound the industry, check out our in-depth articles on sector stalwarts Sundial Growers (SNDL), Tilray (TLRY), and Canopy Growth (CGC).

Investor interest in the cannabis industry is growing at an explosive rate, and the leading players continue to break through legal barrier after legal barrier, especially in the United States. More than 40 U.S. states legalized recreational and/or medical marijuana by the end of 2020. Now, more and more companies are starting to see the opportunity in cannabis cultivation, marketing, distribution, and technology.

Some U.S. states including Texas, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Nevada, Illinois, Connecticut are making strides to pass bills legalizing cannabis. In Texas, he Texas House approved a budget amendment to the psychedelics research bill advancing it to the Governor's desk. HB 1802 requires the Department of State Health Services and Texas Medical Board to research the medical benefits and efficacy of psilocybin, MDMA, and ketamine when treating various mental health disorders and other ailments. Under the bill, the Health Department is expected to submit the research results with recommendations for further legislative actions on December 1 of 2022.

The Connecticut cannabis legalization measure supported by Gov. Ned Lamont passed another committee, possibly opening the doors for a floor vote in the coming week, reported Marijuana Moment. After the Illinois House passed the cannabis equity bill last month, the Illinois Senate also approved it Friday, sending it to the Governor's desk, reported Marijuana Moment. The Nevada Senate approved the cannabis consumption lounges legalization bill in a 17-3 vote on May 31, 2021, sending it to the Governor's desk, reported Marijuana Moment. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) placed his signature on a bill that would broaden the list of qualifying conditions for the state's medical cannabis program. Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed a narrow medical cannabis expansion bill, SB 118, into law, reports NORML. The new law takes effect immediately.

Here is a quick roundup of major (and action-worthy!) cannabis stock news this week:

Applied DNA Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:APDN), a leader in Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)-based DNA manufacturing, announced on June 2 that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Applied DNA Clinical Labs, has secured a safeCircle™ pooled COVID-19 surveillance testing contract with Camp Chateaugay, an overnight summer camp program for teens and kids based in New York's Adirondack Mountain region.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) announced on June 3 that ARNA received an MSCI ESG Rating of "A." MSCI ESG Research provides MSCI ESG Ratings on global public and a few private companies on a scale of AAA (leader) to CCC (laggard), according to exposure to industry-specific ESG risks and the ability to manage those risks relative to peers.

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NASDAQ:ACB), the Canadian company defining the future of cannabinoids worldwide, announced on June 1 that it had completed the restructuring of its balance sheet. The second amended and restated credit facility, which matures on December 31 of 2022, and consists of a term loan and revolver, was repaid in full, without penalty and at Aurora's discretion, in the amount of approximately $89 million, including accrued interest.

cbdMD, Inc. (NYSE:YCBD), announced on June 3 that its recently formed subsidiary, cbdMD Therapeutics, has begun a collaboration with researchers at the Colorado State University (CSU) veterinary program to explore the effects of the company's patent-pending, proprietary cbdMD branded cannabinoid blend on dogs that suffer from osteoarthritis.

FSD Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:HUGE) announced the appointment of Mr. Adnan Bashir as an independent member of its Board of Directors upon the recommendation of the FSD Pharma's Compensation, Nomination, and Governance Committee on June 3.

HEXO Corp. (NYSE:HEXO) and Zenabis Global Inc. announced on June 1  that they had completed the previously announced arrangement, under which HEXO has acquired all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Zenabis as part of a planned arrangement under the Business Corporations Act.

Neptune Wellness Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:NEPT), a diversified and fully integrated health and wellness company focused on plant-based, sustainable, and purpose-driven lifestyle brands, announced on June 3 that NEPT has appointed Steve West as Vice President of Investor Relations to build a leading investor relations outreach program across both retail and institutional investors.

Organigram Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:OGI), a leading producer of cannabis, announced the appointment of Megan McCrae as Organigram's Senior Vice President of Marketing and Communications on May 31. OGI also announced on June 3 that it is currently recruiting for as many as 75 positions across most functional areas of the company. Positions available at Organigram include Operations, Production, Sanitation, Cultivation, Sales, Marketing, Research, and Quality Assurance.

Canopy Growth Corporation (NASDAQ:CGC) released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year of 2021 on June 1. Canopy Growth reported net revenue of $148 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 which represents an increase of 38% over the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020. CGC reported a net loss of $1.7 billion for the full fiscal year of 2021, which is a $283 million wider loss than what Canopy Growth reported for the full fiscal year of 2020. CGC also announced on June 3 that it had ended its business relationship with Drake. Canopy Growth terminated a joint venture with Drake's More Life Growth Co. to sell cannabis in the Canadian and global markets in March.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) came out in support of the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act of 2021 (MORE Act) on June 2. Amazon said it would adjust its corporate drug testing policy for some of its workers and no longer include marijuana in its drug screening program for any positions not regulated by the Department of Transportation.

Tilray Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY) and Sundial Growers Inc. (NASDAQ:SNDL) both recorded double-digit gains during the June trading session amid high retail investor interest in the two Canadian-based cannabis companies. Tilray stock gained 11.9%, and Sundial Growers stock increased rose 13% during Wednesday's trading session after e-commerce giant, Amazon, said it supports the federal legalization of marijuana and will drop marijuana-testing requirements for some of its workers.

Tilray Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY) and Aphria completed their merger in early May after many months of negotiations, resulting in the world's largest cannabis company as measured by revenue. In anticipation of the TLRY's financial report for the final quarter of fiscal 2021, Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its 12-month price target for Tilray stock to $22 from $30.25, an overweight rating, on June 3.

Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 10:48 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
So far, 5,881 calls and 5,392 puts have exchanged hands, which is two times what's typically seen at this point. Most popular is the weekly 3/5 450-strike call, where new positions are being opened. This means options traders are speculating on more upside for AVGO by the time the market closes today.
Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 10:45 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 10:31 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ:LULU) reported first-quarter profits of $1.16 per share last night, easily topping Wall Street's estimates of 91 cents per share, while its revenue of $1.23 billion came in line with analysts' forecasts. The company also lifted its full-year revenue forecast, citing high demand for workout clothing as many took to at-home workouts and comfortable clothing during the pandemic. Despite easing lockdown restrictions and gyms reopening, the company anticipates sustained demand for its workout wear. 

The quarterly report has garnered plenty of interest from the brokerage bunch, though not all of it is positive. Four analysts lifted their price targets, including Barclays to $418 from $401, while three slashed their price estimates. The lowest came from B. Riley all the way to $370. 

Sentiment heading into today was decidedly bullish, though. Fifteen called LULU a "buy" or better, while seven said "hold." Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $386.57 is a 20.8% premium to last night's close. 

The stock is  up 1.2% at $321.08 this morning, recovering from yesterday's pullback from the $330 level. The 320-day moving average has helped provide support for LULU since March, though the equity is still off roughly 8% year-to-date. 

Options volume is already ramped up, with 7,049 calls and 6,098 puts across the tape -- nine times the intraday average. The most popular position is the 6/4 345-strike call, followed by the 370-strike call in the same series. 

Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 10:24 AM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Bernie's Content

The journey Bitcoin (BTC) has taken over the past 12 months alone is enough to fill an encyclopedia. Today, with BTC selling off once again, I wanted to dig deeper into its May plunge, which came just after a surge to record highs. This, combined with the overarching cryptocurrency frenzy that hit Wall Street starting in late 2012 and up to the present, has kept Bitcoin -- and cryptocurrency platforms such as Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) -- ripe in headlines.

In fact, on Wednesday, May 19, Bespoke published a comparison of bitcoin’s drawdowns versus mega cap tech in its Morning Lineup. The largest takeaways included comparing the cryptocurrency’s drawdown to the biggest S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks, such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT). In this, Bespoke found that the average drawdown was significantly larger for bitcoin than the tech behemoths, with the exceptions of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AZMN) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), which were larger or in the same ballpark.

BTC plunged 30% to a bottom of $30,001.51 Wednesday, May 19. This selloff began the week prior, when Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk -- an avid investor in the cryptocurrency -- tweeted his company would stop accepting bitcoin as a mode to purchase its vehicles. Per CNBC, this wiped more than $300 billion from the entire cryptocurrency that same day, though Musk later clarified the electric car maker would not be selling its bitcoin holdings.

BTCCotWChart

As bitcoin recovers from Wednesday's plunge to a four-month low, cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase Global has been enjoying a jump of its own. The positive price action came after Wedbush initiated coverage on COIN with an "outperform" rating and $275 price target on May 20, calling it a "one-stop shop" for crypto. The firm noted the company has a first mover advantage, as well as more crypto assets on its platform, which enables cryptocurrency to be a part of the payments ecosystem.

As mentioned above, Coinbase Global stock dropped to an all-time low of $208 on Wednesday May 19, in response to bitcoin's sharp selloff. The equity first went public in mid-April, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of $250, but has been trending lower since. Month-to-date, COIN has shaved 22%.

It’s too early to gauge where Coinbase will move from here. However, with Wedbush’s support and a frenzy surrounding cryptocurrency in nearly every media outlet, I wouldn’t be surprised if the equity continued to rebound, regardless of how volatile of a path Bitcoin takes.

COINCotWChart

Subscribers to Bernie Schaeffer's Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, May 23.

Begin the New Year With Schaeffer's 7 FREE 2022 Stock Picks!

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