Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 10:45 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 10:31 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ:LULU) reported first-quarter profits of $1.16 per share last night, easily topping Wall Street's estimates of 91 cents per share, while its revenue of $1.23 billion came in line with analysts' forecasts. The company also lifted its full-year revenue forecast, citing high demand for workout clothing as many took to at-home workouts and comfortable clothing during the pandemic. Despite easing lockdown restrictions and gyms reopening, the company anticipates sustained demand for its workout wear. 

The quarterly report has garnered plenty of interest from the brokerage bunch, though not all of it is positive. Four analysts lifted their price targets, including Barclays to $418 from $401, while three slashed their price estimates. The lowest came from B. Riley all the way to $370. 

Sentiment heading into today was decidedly bullish, though. Fifteen called LULU a "buy" or better, while seven said "hold." Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $386.57 is a 20.8% premium to last night's close. 

The stock is  up 1.2% at $321.08 this morning, recovering from yesterday's pullback from the $330 level. The 320-day moving average has helped provide support for LULU since March, though the equity is still off roughly 8% year-to-date. 

Options volume is already ramped up, with 7,049 calls and 6,098 puts across the tape -- nine times the intraday average. The most popular position is the 6/4 345-strike call, followed by the 370-strike call in the same series. 

Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 10:24 AM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Bernie's Content

The journey Bitcoin (BTC) has taken over the past 12 months alone is enough to fill an encyclopedia. Today, with BTC selling off once again, I wanted to dig deeper into its May plunge, which came just after a surge to record highs. This, combined with the overarching cryptocurrency frenzy that hit Wall Street starting in late 2012 and up to the present, has kept Bitcoin -- and cryptocurrency platforms such as Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) -- ripe in headlines.

In fact, on Wednesday, May 19, Bespoke published a comparison of bitcoin’s drawdowns versus mega cap tech in its Morning Lineup. The largest takeaways included comparing the cryptocurrency’s drawdown to the biggest S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks, such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT). In this, Bespoke found that the average drawdown was significantly larger for bitcoin than the tech behemoths, with the exceptions of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AZMN) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), which were larger or in the same ballpark.

BTC plunged 30% to a bottom of $30,001.51 Wednesday, May 19. This selloff began the week prior, when Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk -- an avid investor in the cryptocurrency -- tweeted his company would stop accepting bitcoin as a mode to purchase its vehicles. Per CNBC, this wiped more than $300 billion from the entire cryptocurrency that same day, though Musk later clarified the electric car maker would not be selling its bitcoin holdings.

BTCCotWChart

As bitcoin recovers from Wednesday's plunge to a four-month low, cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase Global has been enjoying a jump of its own. The positive price action came after Wedbush initiated coverage on COIN with an "outperform" rating and $275 price target on May 20, calling it a "one-stop shop" for crypto. The firm noted the company has a first mover advantage, as well as more crypto assets on its platform, which enables cryptocurrency to be a part of the payments ecosystem.

As mentioned above, Coinbase Global stock dropped to an all-time low of $208 on Wednesday May 19, in response to bitcoin's sharp selloff. The equity first went public in mid-April, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of $250, but has been trending lower since. Month-to-date, COIN has shaved 22%.

It’s too early to gauge where Coinbase will move from here. However, with Wedbush’s support and a frenzy surrounding cryptocurrency in nearly every media outlet, I wouldn’t be surprised if the equity continued to rebound, regardless of how volatile of a path Bitcoin takes.

COINCotWChart

Subscribers to Bernie Schaeffer's Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, May 23.

Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 9:51 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Earnings Preview

Rite Aid Stock Keeps Churning in a Tight Channel

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team
 
Published on Jun 4, 2021 at 7:33 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Today's Stock Market News & Events: 6/4/2021

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Today will feature nonfarm payrolls, a monthly unemployment rate update, average hourly earnings data, and factory orders numbers.

There are no public companies slated to release quarterly earnings reports today, June 4.

Looking ahead to next week, there isn't much in the way of earnings this second week of June, as the tail-end of earnings season comes to a close. Next week starts off relatively slow as well, though Thursday will bring a deluge of economic data. Consumer data will be highlighted throughout the week, starting with Monday's consumer credit report, which could be interesting as the economy continues to reopen and mask requirements are lifted. Investors will also be eyeing the Federal budget balance. 

A few more earnings reports will trickle in next week as earnings season starts to wind down. Some highlights include quarterly reports from Chewy (CHWY), Dave & Buster's (PLAY), RH (RH), and Signet Jewelers (SIG).

All economic dates listed here are tentative and subject to change.

Published on Jun 3, 2021 at 3:10 PM
Updated on Jun 3, 2021 at 3:17 PM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) are down 0.8% at $245.27 at last check, as Big Tech struggles with investors' inflation fears ahead of the big Federal Reserve decision this week. The equity is still up 32.2% year-over-year, though, and has just recently hit an April 27 record high of $263.19. Thus, it may be the perfect time to buy the tech giant on the dip, as MSFT's pullback has placed it near a trendline with historically bullish implications, which could help the stock resume its path higher.

On the charts, the security just came within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average, after spending roughly two weeks above this trendline. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, 10 similar signals have occurred in the past three years. Microsoft stock enjoyed a positive return one month later in 78% of those cases, averaging a 3.8% gain. From its current perch, a comparable move would put MSFT just over the $254 mark, an area that's been a ceiling the last few months.

MSFT 80 Day

An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could keep the wind at the equity's back. This is per MSFT's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR), which sits higher than 92% of readings from the past year. In other words, short-term option traders have rarely been more put biased. 

Now seems like a good opportunity to weigh in on Microsoft stock's next move with options. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 19% stands in the low third percentile of its annual range, indicating options players are now pricing in low volatility expectations.

Published on Jun 3, 2021 at 2:15 PM
Updated on Jun 3, 2021 at 3:11 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity
So far, 254,000 calls have crossed the tape, which is five times what's typically seen at this point, in comparison to 45,000 puts. The June 60 call is the most popular, followed by the weekly 6/4 63-strike call, with new positions being opened at the latter. 
Published on Jun 3, 2021 at 3:09 PM
  • Most Active Options Update
 Go ahead and add marijuana name Sundial Growers Inc (NASAQ:SNDL) to the list of "meme stocks" going wild this week. The equity is up 14.9% at $1.30 today, and has tacked on a whopping 55% from a week ago.
Published on Jun 3, 2021 at 1:11 PM
Updated on Jun 3, 2021 at 2:08 PM
  • Editor's Pick

As previously established, the S&P 500 (SPX) is heading into a historically bearish month. With that in mind, we compiled a list of the 25 best-performing stocks to own in June. Below, we will explore Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA), which appeared on the list and is down 1.9% at $22.27. It is still worth diving deeper into the security's technical setup, though, as now could be the perfect time to speculate on UAA's next move with options. 

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Under Armour stock has averaged a gain of 8.23% in the month of June for the last 10 years. Plus, UAA has finished the month in the black 80% of the time. The security also stands among the top 10 percentage gainers on the list, and is the only personal goods name to make the cut.

A move of similar magnitude would put UAA just above the $24 mark, which is in line with a bull signal that sees the equity moving higher after pulling back to the historically bullish 80-day moving average. Now up nearly 30% in 2021, Under Armour stock has found floors at both the $22 level, as well as the supportive 100-day moving average. 

UAA Chart 2 June 3

A short squeeze could push the security higher still. The 16.83 million shares sold short make up a 9% of the stock's available float, orover three days' worth of pent-up buying power.

Sentiment surrounding the equity has been overwhelmingly bullish of late. In fact, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), UAA's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 23.23 stands higher than all other readings from the past year. In simpler terms, options traders have rarely had as healthy of an appetite for calls. 

Lastly, now looks like an ideal opportunity to buy Under Armour stock options. That's because equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 38% stands in the extremely low second percentile of its annual range. This means option traders are pricing in low volatility expectations at the moment -- a boon for premium buyers.

 
Published on Jun 3, 2021 at 12:30 PM
  • The Week Ahead

There isn't much in the way of earnings this second week of June, as the tail-end of earnings season comes to a close. The week starts off relatively slow as well, though Thursday will bring a deluge of economic data. Consumer data will be highlighted throughout the week, starting with Monday's consumer credit report, which could be interesting as the economy continues to reopen and mask requirements are lifted. Investors will also be eyeing the Federal budget balance. 

A few more earnings reports will trickle in as earnings season starts to wind down. Some highlights include quarterly reports from Chewy (CHWY), Dave & Buster's (PLAY), RH (RH), and Signet Jewelers (SIG).

Below is a list of key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All economic dates listed below are tentative and subject to change.

 The week will start off slow on Monday, June 7, with the consumer credit report.

Tuesday, June 8, will bring job openings and trade balance data. 

Things stay at a relatively slow pace on Wednesday, June 9, with only wholesale inventories on tap.

It get busy fast on Thursday, June 10, however, with the usual initial and continuing jobless claims data, the consumer price index (CPI), core CPI, and Federal budget balance. 

Lastly, Friday, June 11 will feature the consumer sentiment index. 

Published on Jun 3, 2021 at 12:13 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

Can CASY Capitalize On It's Uber Partnership?

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team
 
Published on Jun 3, 2021 at 10:43 AM
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