Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Oct 29, 2020 at 1:38 PM
  • Earnings Preview
These companies, of course, are Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB)Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Google parent Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL). It looks like investors have high hopes for the tech sector this time around, all four are sporting sizable gains.
Published on Oct 29, 2020 at 12:15 PM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) are up 3.8% at $126.21 at last check. And while the semiconductor concern has cooled off from its Oct. 14, all-time-high of $132.42 in the last couple of weeks, it still sports a 54.7% year-over-year lead. The even better news is that the stock's latest pullback is near a historically bullish trendline, which could soon push QCOM to a fresh peak.

More specifically, Qualcomm stock just came within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average, after spending several weeks above the trendline. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, six similar signals have occurred during the past three years. QCOM has closed higher 83% of the time one month after each signal, averaging a 11.2% gain. From the stock's current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put it just above the $140 mark -- to another record high.

QCOM 40 Day

A short squeeze could create even more tailwinds for the security. Short interest rose 17.6% during the past two reporting periods, and the 16.06 million shares sold short now make up 1.4% of the stock's available float. In simpler terms, it would take just about two days to buy back these bearish bets, at QCOM's average pace of daily trading.

An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could also push Qualcomm stock higher. This is per the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.13, which sits higher than 98% of readings from the past year. This suggests short-term option traders have rarely been more put-biased. 

Published on Oct 29, 2020 at 11:34 AM
  • Earnings Preview
  • Buzz Stocks

Restaurant Stock Set to Serve Long-Term Investors

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Shake Shack, Inc. (NYSE:SHAK) is a fairly new American fast-casual restaurant chain based out of New York. The restaurant chain primarily serves burgers, hot dogs, and milkshakes. Shake Shack launched its first restaurant in 2001 and has since expanded its presence to more than 300 locations globally.

Shake Shack began trading publicly in 2015, with SHAK's initial public offering (IPO) priced at $21 per share. Shake Shack stock has more than tripled since its IPO, but has also seen a lot of volatility over the course of the past five years. Regardless, the food chain is now up 12% year-to-date.

The company is set to report earnings today, after the close, along with various other food-service related stocks that generally can be grouped into our beloved "reopening stocks" in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Shake Shack will look to stand out from its peers like Yum! Brands (YUM), Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN), and the Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) in a big way. Whether the company will be able to pull this off is yet to be seen, but let's take a look at how the company has performed historically before we place our bets.

Shake Shack has a market cap of $2.79 billion. Its price-to-book ratio stands at 7.12. As a reminder, we use price-to-book ratio as one of many tools to help investors identify and avoid overvalued companies The company has a trailing price-earnings ratio of 99.02, and a forward price-earnings ratio of 10,000. A company's price-earnings ratio can be used to compare a company against its own historical record over time.

Shake Shack has beat expectations on three of its four most recent earnings reports. In the third and fourth quarters of 2019. As for Shake Shack's upcoming earnings report slated for today, the company is expected to report an EPS of -$0.21, ending the downward spiral seen in the SHAK stock price over the past four quarterly earnings reports.

Shake Shack has grown its revenue annually from 2016 to 2019 by around $100 million per year. The company has more-than-doubled its revenue over this time period. Shake Shack's best year, in terms of total revenue, was in 2019, where it grew roughly $134 million in revenue, clocking a total of $594.5 million. 

In 2016 the company reported a net income of $12.446 million. Shake Shack has steadily grown its net income since posting a loss of ($302,000) in 2017. In 2019, it managed to report the production of a net income of $19.83 million. This year, though, it appears the company will be taking a big "L" on net income.

Shake Shack currently has $190.82 million in cash and $375.19 billion in total debt. The company’s balance sheet shows $1.12 billion in total assets and $673 million in total liabilities. Shake Shack's total equity stands at $451 million.

Shake Shack is in a much more financially stable position than a lot of other companies in the food industry. Despite its inability to maintain profitability like Yum! Brands and Dunkin’ Brands, the company has managed to maintain a positive balance sheet. Shake Shack has set itself up well for the future with a decent amount cash available to sustain the company, should the pandemic worsen or slow-play its way out.

The company's consistent revenue growth is a potential sign of a long-term winning business-model. Overall, the company has strong potential to resume its pre-pandemic growth and continue doing so well into the future, and today's earnings report will be very telling for potential investors.

Published on Oct 29, 2020 at 10:46 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Pinterest Inc (NYSE:PINS) is already up an impressive 39.5% to trade at $68.82, after the social media company posted third-quarter earnings and revenue that handily beat analysts' estimates. The company also forecast 60% sales growth for its current quarter, citing a bounce in ad revenue, thanks in part to businesses redirecting their spending to its platform following July's social media ad boycott. 

The equity is now trading at a new record high, eclipsing recent pressure near the $54 level, which is home to its previous mid-October peak. And should these gains hold, Pinterest stock could be headed for its biggest one-day jump on record too. For the year, the security is now up 265.3%.

PINS has received an overwhelming amount of analyst attention this morning, with no fewer than 12 brokerages rushing in with price-target hikes. J.P. Morgan Securities lifted its price target all the way to $75 from $57, and upgraded the stock to "overweight" from "neutral." Coming into today, the majority of analysts were already bullish on the stock, with 11 of the 19 calling it a "buy" or better. Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $60.14 now sits at a 12.5% discount to current levels, which could lead to even more bull notes, should PINS maintain its momentum. 

The options pits are going wild over PINS, too, with 183,000 calls and 69,000 puts across the board so far -- 12 times what's typically seen, with volume running in the top percentile of its 12-month range. The weekly 10/30 70-strike call is extremely popular, followed by the 65-strike call in the same series, with positions being opened at the former. 

 

Published on Oct 29, 2020 at 10:16 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) are in focus this morning, after the streaming service provider reported a wider-than-expected loss for the third quarter, and trimmed its fourth-quarter guidance. Revenue came in-line with Wall Street's forecasts, though, as the company saw its premium subscriber count grow by 27%. Out of the gate, Spotify stock is down 8.1% to trade at $254.23.

The shares looked well on their way to reclaim their July 22 all-time high of $299.67, after climbing to $292.79 two sessions ago. However, the equity has now shed over 7% this week, and just fell under the resistant 20-day moving average, after spending the better part of a month above the trendline. Still, longer term, SPOT has tacked on 72.9% in 2020.

In the options pits, traders have been flocking toward puts recently. At the the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the 10-day put/call volume ratio sits in the elevated 85th percentile of its annual range. So, while calls are still outpacing puts on an overall basis, this ratio suggests the appetite for bearish bets is unusually high. 

Shifting gears to today, both puts and calls have roared in popularity. Already over 5,000 calls and 3,000 puts have changed hands, four times the average intraday rate and volume pacing for the 97th percentile of its annual range. Leading the charge is the weekly 10/30 265-strike call, followed by the 250-strike put and 260-stike call from the same series, with new positions being opened at both.

Published on Oct 29, 2020 at 10:00 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Oct 29, 2020 at 9:51 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Oct 28, 2020 at 3:01 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY) are down 1.7% at $57.73 at last check. And while the pharmaceutical name carries a 10% year-to-date deficit, investors should not turn their backs on BMY just yet. That is because the stock's recent pullback has it near a historically bullish trendline, which could push the security higher in the near future. 

More specifically, BMY just came within one standard deviation of its 320-day moving average, after spending months above this trendline. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, three similar signals have occurred during the past three years. Without fail, the security enjoyed positive returns one month after each signal, averaging a 8.1% gain. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put BMY above the $62 mark -- close to its October peak.

BMY

An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could create additional tailwinds for the security. This is per the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR), which stands higher 81% of readings from the past year. In other words, short-term option traders have rarely been more put-biased.

Now seems like the right time to weigh in of BMY options. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 34%, which sits in the low 24th percentile of all other annual readings, meaning the stock sports attractively priced premiums at the moment.

Published on Oct 28, 2020 at 2:35 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity
While there's still a decent amount of time left in today's session, roughly 16,000 puts have already changed hands -- six times what's typically seen, and volume pacing in the 99th annual percentile. 
Published on Oct 28, 2020 at 11:13 AM
Updated on Oct 28, 2020 at 2:16 PM
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Oct 28, 2020 at 11:19 AM
  • Options Recommendations

Software giant Zscaler Inc (NASDAQ:ZS) has far from struggled over the long term. From a technical view, the equity boasts a 214% year-to-date lead, and is now trading at more than nine times its initial public offering (IPO) price of $16. However, the shares have recently pulled back, making now an opportune time to buy calls.

ZS Oct 28

Meanwhile, shorts look to be in covering mode on the equity. Specifically, short interest fell 4.5% during the last two reporting periods, and now accounts for more than 10% of the stock’s total available float. Even further, there looks to be room for upgrades, with seven covering brokerages firms sporting a tepid "hold."

Turning toward options, this bearish sentiment is echoed. This is per ZS’ Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.09, which stands higher 64% of readings from the past year. In other words, short-term option traders have rarely been more put-biased.

Lastly, now looks like an affordable time bet on Zscaler stock with options. This is per the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 48%, which sits higher than just 10% of all other annual readings. What’s more, ZS’ Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks at a high 78 out of 100, meaning the security has tended to exceed these expectations during the past year -- a boon for premium buyers. Our recommended call has a leverage ratio of 4.9 and will double in value on a 21.1% rise in the underlying equity.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this ZS commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

Published on Oct 28, 2020 at 10:43 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

At least five analysts have chimed in with bull notes since yesterday's announcement that Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will buy competitor Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ:XLNX) in a $35 billion all-stock deal. Already this morning, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank lifted their price targets, to $136 and $143, respectively, while J.P. Morgan upgraded the equity to "neutral" from "underweight" and upped its price target to $138 from $96. XLNX, this morning, has gone by the way of the broader market, off 2.6% at $121.18, at last check. 

While the equity may be cooling from yesterday's annual high of $130.40, it's still trading at its highest levels in over a year, with former pressure at the $120 mark looking like potential support going forward. For the year, XLNX is now up 24%.

A look at analyst sentiment coming into today shows that many members of the brokerage bunch still aren't convinced. Of the 15 in coverage, only three considered it a "buy" or better. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $119.47 is at a slight discount to current levels. 

The options pits have been quite bearish of late, too. In fact, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). XLNX sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.29, which stands higher than 95% of readings from the past year. This suggests a healthier-than-usual appetite for long puts of late. 

 

 

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