Cruise line Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) is down 0.9% at $44.68 in this afternoon's trading, continuing its wildly disappointing year on the charts. The stock has shed 25% over the past 12 months, and is now seeing a re-emergence of pressure from a key descending -- and historically bearish -- trendline.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, CCL is trading within one standard deviation of its 120-day moving average, after spending most of its time below this trendline in recent years. Similar tests of this trendline resistance have occurred eight other times over the past three years, resulting in an average 15-day loss of 5.9%, with 75% of the returns negative. Another loss of this severity would send Carnival stock down to the $42 mark -- back near the site of its five-year lows from early October -- before the end of January.

Moving into the options pits, it looks like call traders may have maxed out their bullish bets. The equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 6.22 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 100th annual percentile, meaning calls have been purchased over puts at a faster-than-usual clip during the past two weeks.

In about a week's time, the spotlight will soon shift from retail stocks to the banking sector ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. One name in focus today is Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), with options traders in particular taking a renewed interest in the financial institution. 

More specifically, call options are being traded at double the average intraday amount. Leading the charge are the weekly 12/13 34.50- and 34-strike calls, where new positions are being opened. There's also notable buy-to-open activity at the weekly 12/6 34-strike call, with those traders eyeing more gains for BAC by this Friday when the options expire. 

This appetite for calls runs counter to the recent options trend, though. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) BAC sports a Schaeffer's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.65, which ranks in the 85th percentile of its annual range. While the ratio indicates calls outnumber puts on an absolute basis, the lofty ranking shows an unusual preference for puts.

Now is the time to buy premium on Bank of America too, as its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 19% ranks in the 2nd annual percentile, hinting at low volatility expectations at the moment. Plus, BAC's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) comes in at of 97 out of 100. This means the security has consistently made bigger moves on the charts than its options premiums have priced in over the past year.

Bank of America stock nabbed an 11-year high of $33.74 earlier today, and is fresh off its third straight weekly win. During this climb, the shares' 20-day moving average has emerged as reliable support. 

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is one name seeing notable options trading today. More than 75,000 calls have traded, compared to a daily average of just 34,000, due to some major trades at the January 2021 10-strike calls. Trade-Alert is suggesting a block of 43,627 contracts were bought to open for 57 cents each, which would mean a bull bet almost $2.5 million (premium paid * 100 shares per contract * contracts purchased).

This trader will stand to profit if the auto stock moves above $10.57 (strike + premium paid) over the next 13 months. Call buying has long been the most common strategy from Ford options traders, as the 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.81 actually ranks near the bottom third of annual readings. So while call buying has nearly doubled put buying in the last two weeks, such interest in long calls isn't rare.

While these traders are opening LEAPS, data suggests near-term contracts are attractively priced at the moment. For instance, the 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 21.7% ranks in the 5th annual percentile.

Looking closer at Ford's chart, the shares are seemingly finding a foothold near the $9 mark, as they try to create some distance between themselves and their 50-day moving average, a trendline they've been following since September. The stock has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 8 percentage points in the past three months.

PVH Corp (NYSE:PVH) has been one of a number of retailers to report earnings in recent days, with Monday's post-close report initially sending the shares higher in yesterday's trading -- only to see them ultimately close 0.5% lower at $100.05. The round-number $100 price point seems to be acting as a magnet for the stock, after previously representing a technical ceiling in previous weeks. It also marked a top to a rally attempt back in July, and is the site of a notable May bear gap.

Analysts, meanwhile, have had mixed reactions to the company's earnings update, which included a raised full-year outlook. More notes have come through since yesterday's close, including a downgrade to "in line" from "outperform" at Evercore ISI, with the firm also lowering its price target to $110 from $120.

The rest of the attention has been positive, though, as at least four other firms upped their price targets. The highest bar was set by Telsey Advisory and D.A. Davidson, which set price targets of $115.

Options traders have taken a put-heavy approach on the Calvin Klein owner, at least in the short term. This is according to the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.31, ranking in the 92nd annual percentile. In other words, traders targeting contracts expiring within three months are much more put-heavy than normal. However, much of this is due to peak open interest at the deep out-of-the money January 2020 55-strike put.

A notable earnings loser this morning is Deere & Company (NYSE:DE). Although the machinery company reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that topped estimates, Deere issued a full-year profit forecast that fell short of analyst expectations. CEO John May cited "lingering trade tensions" and severe harvesting conditions as catalysts for the drop in new equipment investments. 

At last check, Deere stock was down 5.2% to trade at $167.53. on track for its worst single-session drop since Aug. 24. The move lower today takes DE below its 50-day moving average, a trendline not breached on a closing basis since early September. The shares are now 7% off their Nov. 11 record high of $180.47.

It will be interesting to see how analysts react to today's lackluster quarterly report. There are 16 analysts covering DE, and there's an even split between those that dole out "hold" or "strong sell" ratings, and those that maintain "buy" or better opinions. Plus, the equity's consensus 12-month price target of $177 is right on par with last night's closing perch $176.85. 

The shares of software concern VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW) are up 2.3% to trade at $168.75 this morning, after the firm posted third-quarter profits of $1.49 per share, and revenue of $2.46 billion -- both of which beat analysts' estimates. VMware cited strengthening sales for its Hybrid Cloud subscription and SaaS.

Analysts have been flocking to the stock as a result. At least six members of the brokerage bunch have already lifted their price targets, including RBC, which hiked its estimate to $200 from $190. The consensus 12-month target price of $179.50 is still at a slight premium to current levels -- sitting just south of the equity's post-bear gap highs. There's still room for bull notes to add tailwinds on the charts, though, since six of the 18 in coverage still call it a "hold" or worse. 

In fact, since VMW gapped lower in late May, this aforementioned peak near the $180 region has served as a ceiling on the charts. The 80-day moving average also thwarted several attempts to rally earlier in the year, but the equity was able to slice through resistance here in late October. Now, the stock is running up recent resistance at the $170 level, which happens to coincide with its 200-day moving average. 

Despite a roughly 20.3% year-to-date gain, sentiment in the options pits was quite bullish ahead of earnings. During the last 10 days, 1.24 puts were bought for every call on the the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio sits in the 75th percentile of its annual range, too, implying a bigger appetite for bearish bets of late. 

And while short interest has started to unwind in recent weeks -- down almost 6% in the last reporting period -- the 7.73 million shares sold short still represent a solid 10.2% of the stock's available float, and would take over a week to cover at VMW's average pace of trading. Should these bears continue to hit the exits, a short squeeze could propel the stock even higher.

The shares of Cedar Fair, L.P. (NYSE:FUN) have been consolidating in the $55 area since pulling back from their early October highs roughly 10 points north of this region. Today, the amusement park stock is down 1.2% at $55.26, due to negative analyst attention from B. Riley. 

The brokerage firm dropped its rating on FUN to "neutral" from "buy," and trimmed its price target to $57 from $60. More specifically, B. Riley doesn't think the strong traffic growth of 2019 will be sustainable next year. The rest of the eight analysts in coverage have "strong buy" ratings.

Options trading is virtually nonexistent on the equity, but those who have picked up contracts on Cedar Fair have preferred calls. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows 66 long calls to just 4 long puts. The 60 strike in particular saw heavy attention, with traders building positions in the December and January series.

With that being said, interest in Cedar Fair options has been slightly hotter than usual. Data shows total open interest is 8,428 contracts, a number that ranks in the 74th annual percentile.

The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Stocks highlighted in yellow are new to the list, including home improvement name Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD), which recently took a hit on a negative earnings reaction. We'll take a closer look at some of the other notable names on the list below, including blue chip Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS), streaming specialist Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU), and social media name Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR).

Disney stock saw 748,888 weekly call options traded in the past two weeks, compared to 172,315 weekly put options. This heavy volume came amid a red-hot run for the DIS, which closed November out with a 16.7% monthly gain. Today, the shares -- which tend to outperform in the week after Black Friday -- are up 0.04% at $151.65, not far from their Nov. 26 record high of $153.41. In the options pits, the out-of-the-money weekly 12/6 152.50-strike call is most active this morning, with the majority of the contracts crossing at the bid price.

Roku options traders have preferred weekly calls over puts by a wide margin in recent weeks, with 675,988 of the former and 537,683 of the latter traded in the last 10 days. ROKU stock has been chopping higher atop its 120-day moving average, but is down 14.6% today at $136.84 on a bruising bear note out of Morgan Stanley. Speculative players appear to be bracing for even bigger losses, with buy-to-open activity detected at the weekly 12/6 140-strike put.

Twitter weekly call options have also been in high demand, with 331,022 contracts exchanged in the past two weeks, versus 56,043 weekly put options. TWTR stock has been churning in the $29-$31 region following a late-October earnings-related bear gap, down 2.1% today at $30.26. Some traders may be targeting a breakout over the next week, though, with the weekly 12/6 31-strike call most active today, and new positions possibly being purchased here.

Thanksgiving is upon us tomorrow, followed by one of the busiest shopping days of the year. Black Friday, evidently, isn't necessarily the busiest shopping day of the year as retailers run deals earlier and online shopping has become more popular. It still marks the unofficial beginning of holiday shopping. Next week, reports of Black Friday sales, foot traffic, and fist fights will come out and these reports (aside from the fist fights) will be used to gauge the strength of the consumer and the economy in general. In other words, next week is a potential catalyst for stocks in either direction. Below, I look at the week after Black Friday, how stocks have done that week, and what it has meant going forward.

Data For the Week After Black Friday

The table below shows us how next week, the week after Black Friday, has typically performed since 1990. The week has been bullish, averaging a gain of 0.68%, compared to a 0.17% gain for any week since then. Also, the percentage of returns that have been positive is higher than typical weeks (66% vs. 57%). I thought you might see a higher standard deviation during the week because of reactions to the retail shopping data and anecdotes, but that is not the case. 

I also broke down the data by day of the week. Based on this, it's not prudent to buy stocks at the end of the week because the Monday after Black Friday has been a bad day for stocks. Next Monday has averaged a loss of 0.26% for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) since 1990 with only about 40% of the returns positive. In fact, 12 of the last 15 years, the Monday after Black Friday has been negative. The only day that has been especially bullish has been Friday of next week, which averages a gain of 0.61%, with nearly 80% of the returns positive.

Black Friday Reaction Indicator

I mentioned how Black Friday will be used to gauge the economy, so I thought maybe investors can use the stock market reaction to Black Friday as an indicator going forward. The table below shows how the next three months have played out since 1990 depending on whether next week has been positive or negative. When the week after Black Friday has been positive, the S&P 500 has averaged a 3.54% return over the next three months with 79% of the returns positive. When the week has been negative, however, the next three months has had an average loss of over 1%, with 60% of the returns positive. This supports the theory that next week's return works as an indicator.

Looking at a shorter term, however, the indicator hasn't worked as well. The table below shows the same data for the rest of the year. Over this shorter time frame, the S&P 500 has done slightly better when next week has been negative.

Notable Stocks Next Week

In case anyone's curious, below are how some S&P 500 stocks from our "General Retailers" sector have performed. The stocks at the top of the list have been the most bullish while those at the bottom have been the most bearish (sorted by percent positive then by average return).

Finally, here's another list of stocks. These stocks aren't in our "General Retailers" sector but I think they're still interesting stocks around the holidays. It's notable that FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS) are right at the top given the prominence of online shopping nowadays.

We're only a couple of weeks out from a commentary in this space dedicated to the steely significance of two "mega round" numbers for the S&P MidCap 400 Index (MID) -- namely, the 2,000 millennium level and its 20% year-to-date return. In the days since that column was published, these twin sticking points haven't wavered; after closing at 2,000.61 on Friday, Nov. 15, MID opened the next Monday with a modest decline that left it back around 1,997 by the close.

Last Tuesday's trading brought another MID closing high of 2,001.35, quickly followed by Wednesday's intraday peak of 2,005.01 -- but that bold incursion above the 2,000 barrier unraveled by the closing bell. MID finished Wednesday's session at 1,994.17, dropping its year-to-date gain back down to 19.9%. The mid-cap index ultimately wrapped up the week at 1,985.87, firmly below both 2,000 and that slippery 20% level.

And while MID's technical struggles have continued apace in recent weeks, its plight has been pretty effectively aped by the vaunted Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). A 20% year-to-date return for the Dow is located at 27,992.95 -- just a hair's breadth from the 28,000 region. Though the Dow has placed quite a few more millennia in its rearview over the years than has the MID, it would seem this latest five-digit hurdle is nevertheless putting up a fight before it falls to the wayside.

Just like MID and its mid-November weekly photo finish above 2K, the Dow wrapped up Friday, Nov. 15 at 28,004.89. After extending its push above 28,000 into a second and third session -- Monday brought a closing high of 28,036.22, and Tuesday an intraday best of 28,090.21 -- the wheels began to fall off the rally cart. The Dow teetered to a negative finish on Tuesday, ending the session at 27,934.02, and bringing its year-to-date gain to 19.7%. At Friday's close, the Dow was perched at 27,875.62, up 19.5% for 2019.

It may feel disappointing for the bulls to have closed, on a weekly basis, just below these big round numbers. But the silver lining is that this reduces the risk of an immediate retreat back south of these levels early in the week, as we just saw play out. And the major equity benchmarks did, in fact, successfully retreat from their most overbought extremes over the course of last week's choppy trading.

That said, some of the options indicators we follow are flashing potentially excessive optimism, and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is hovering near the 12 level from which it has spiked multiple times this year. With risk still lingering ahead of the fourth quarter's final stretch, traders should remain wary of the possibility for a pullback to either of a pair of trendlines that has supported the Dow's most recent rejections from millennium-level tests: the 40-day moving average, currently around 27,135; and the 320-day trendline, just north of 25,930.

Subscribers to Bernie Schaeffer's Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, November 24.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) joined the slew of retailers reporting earnings today, unveiling a third-quarter adjusted profit of 23 cents per share and revenue of $863.5 million -- both of which missed analysts' estimates. The company also trimmed its full-year sales growth forecast, blaming declining same-store sales at its Hollister unit and slowing revenue overseas, especially in Hong Kong after months of protests forced some stores to close. The stock hit a new one-month low of $15.02 earlier today, and is now down 3.5% to trade at $15.76. 

Options traders have flocked to the stock today, with a total of 7,209 calls and 5,699 puts across the tape so far today -- four times the intraday average. There appears to be quite a bit of sell-to-open action surrounding the December 16 call, suggesting these players expect the stock to remain below the $16 level through front-month expiration at the close on Friday, Dec. 20. Contracts are also being opened at the weekly 11/29 16-strike call, though it is unclear whether these are being bought or sold. 

Analysts have been relatively quiet today, but it looks as if the brokerage bunch has already taken a bearish stance on the apparel name. All 12 brokerages in coverage call it a "hold" or worse.

Short sellers are likely cheering ANF's post-earnings stumble. Despite short interest beginning to slide in the past reporting period, the 11.69 million shares sold short still represent a solid 18.8% of the stock's available float -- approximately 4.4 days of trading, at the equity's average pace.

All this pessimism surrounding the shares of Abercrombie & Fitch isn't surprising. Since a same-store sales miss caused the shares to plummet in late May, ANF has struggled to pop back past this bear gap, forced lower by its 60-day moving average and pressure at the $18 level. And while the shares appear to have found a floor right around the $13.50 region, they are now off 21.4% for the year.

Beverage stock Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (NYSE:KDP) has been moving higher on the charts long term, recently seeing an extra push from a volatile post-earnings bull gap earlier this month. The equity has since pulled back from its Nov. 7 record peak, but still remains at twice its 2016 lows, pointing to potentially strong technical footing for KDP. With additional support at the 10-month moving average, the equity is roughly 18% higher year-to-date, and looks ready to move even higher.

Short interest has soared 420% year-to-date, and now accounts for nearly 15% of the stock’s total available float, or 16.5 times the equity’s average daily trading pace. Further, seven of the 12 covering firms still sport a tepid "hold" or worse rating, meaning there remains plenty of room for upgrades on the stock.

Lastly, short-term options premiums on KDP look relatively cheap at the moment, based on the equity's Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 22%, which ranks in the 21st percentile of its annual range. Our recommended call has a leverage ratio of 7.5, and will double in value on a 13.1% rise in the underlying security.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this KDP commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.