Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) is following sector peer First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) lower at midday, dropping 1.3% to trade at $33.29. As such, CSIQ puts are crossing the tape at three times the expected amount for this point in the day, and more than double the rate of calls. However, not all of the puts being exchanged are of the bearish variety.

Diving right in, the deep out-of-the-money October 25 put is CSIQ's most active option by a mile. However, it looks like a sizable portion of these positions are being sold to open, as traders bank on the quarter-century mark to act as a foothold over the next five months. Historically speaking, the shares haven't been south of $25 since early February.

Taking a step back, put buying has been the strategy of choice in CSIQ's options pits of late. The security's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.72 sits just 9 percentage points from a 12-month peak. In other words, traders have bought to open puts over calls at a faster clip just 9% of the time in the last year.

Echoing this, CSIQ's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) checks in at 1.17. Not only does this SOIR indicate put open interest outweighs call open interest among options with a shelf-life of three months or less, it also ranks in the 92nd percentile of its annual range.

While puts have clearly been popular recently, this doesn't necessarily mean traders -- and even put buyers -- are bearish. Given Canadian Solar Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CSIQ) 37% year-to-date gain -- and current foothold atop its 80-day moving average -- a portion of the long puts may have been at the hands of shareholders seeking a hedge.

Casino stocks are getting hammered on negative brokerage attention today. Among the sector's notable losers are Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS), MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM), and Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN). Here's a look at what the analyst community has to say about this trio of names.

LVS saw its price target cut at Sterne Agee CRT (to $57) and Morgan Stanley (to $50) -- echoing the bearish brokerage attention the security received last week, and pressuring the shares 3.6% lower to $50.07. Now, the stock is down 16.4% since its early April high of $59.90.

Despite this troubling technical trajectory, Las Vegas Sands Corp.'s (NYSE:LVS) consensus 12-month price target still stands at $57.44, a nearly 15% premium to current trading levels. What's more, half of the analysts covering the shares consider them a "buy" or better, with the other half doling out a "hold" opinion -- with not a single "sell" to be found. This could pave the way for a round of downgrades and/or additional price-target reductions.

In a similar vein, MGM has dropped 2.6% to trade at $19.98, after Sterne Agee CRT and Morgan Stanley trimmed their respective price targets to $26.50 and $23. Year-over-year, the shares have given back more than one-fifth of their value. This pitiful performance could be in focus this Thursday as the gaming company holds its annual shareholder meeting.

Options traders have been surprisingly bullish toward MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) in recent months. The stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is 3.82, with nearly four calls bought to open for every put. What's more, this ratio ranks just 2 percentage points from a 52-week peak. A capitulation among these optimists could send MGM lower.

Finally, WYNN is fresh off a two-year low of $103.75 -- and was last seen 2.1% south of breakeven, at $104.34 -- after Sterne Agee CRT and Morgan Stanley slashed their price targets to $131 and $122, respectively. The stock has fallen precipitously since reaching an all-time best of $249.31 in March 2014, pressured by its 10- and 20-week trendlines. What's more, the shares are on pace to put another disastrous May in the books.

Nevertheless, short-term options traders have displayed an unusually strong affinity toward Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) calls over puts. The equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.92 ranks in the bottom quartile of its annual range. Should these bullish speculators change their tune, it could exacerbate WYNN's technical struggles.

Analysts are weighing in today on drugmaker Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN), coal producer Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), and circuit manufacturer Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRUS). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on AMGN, BTU, and CRUS.

• AMGN is tumbling this afternoon, dropping 2.9% at $158.90 -- which puts it back in the red on a year-to-date basis -- on news from Friday that the company is ending its partnership with AstraZeneca plc (NYSE:AZN). Analysts have since weighed in, with J.P. Morgan Securities and Morgan Stanley cutting their price targets to $160 and $171, respectively. In the options pits, call open interest on Amgen, Inc. is still higher than put open interest, among options expiring in three months or less, according to the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.82. This reading also ranks in the bottom third of similar readings from the past year, meaning short-term options traders are more call-skewed than what's normally seen.


• Like some of its sector peers, BTU has fallen to an all-time low, with the shares giving back 5.7% today to trade at $3.42. In the past 52 weeks, the shares have fallen over 80%. Hurting the commodity name is a fresh "neutral" rating at Credit Suisse, which also set a $4.50 price target. This mirrors the general opinion on the Street, where 10 of 18 analysts say Peabody Energy Corporation is a "hold" or worse.


• After jumping out to a two-year high of $38.20, CRUS has reversed course, last seen 5.1% lower at $36.21. The shares saw a spark in early trading, thanks to a price-target increase at Barclays to $39 from $37. Today notwithstanding, the stock has been strong in recent months, more than doubling since touching an annual low of $16.80 on Dec. 2. As such, calls have been bought to open over puts by a significant margin. During the past two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), close to four Cirrus Logic, Inc. calls have been bought to open for every put.

It's been a rough ride for American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) of late, with the shares off 13.7% month-to-date, due in part to last week's sector-wide sell-off. Today, the stock has dropped 2.2% to churn near $41.66 -- and is on pace for its lowest close since Oct. 31 -- following reports that a sinkhole has shuttered flights at the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. In the options pits, it appears one speculator is downwardly revising her bullish outlook amid AAL's recent decline.

Specifically, AAL's August 50 call has seen the most action, thanks to a 9,651-contract block that was bought earlier. This could be opening activity, according to Trade-Alert, and may be the result of one option trader rolling down a similarly sized block of August 57.50 calls to a lower strike. Regardless, the options market isn't too confident the August 50 calls will expire in the money, as delta is docked at 0.17.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals option traders have been scooping up calls over puts at a near-annual-high clip in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 5.12 sits just 9 percentage points from a 52-week peak.

Elsewhere, 10 out of 13 analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating on American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL), with not a single "sell" to be found. Should the shares continue to struggle, a capitulation by option bulls and/or a round of downgrades could pressure AAL even lower.

Call players have taken charge of Nokia Corporation's (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) options pits today. By the numbers, 5,104 calls have changed hands thus far, compared to fewer than 550 puts.

Seeing the most action is NOK's July 8 call, where it appears new positions are being purchased. If traders are indeed buying to open the calls, the goal is for the security to muscle north of $8 by the close on Friday, July 17 -- when the back-month options expire. Delta on the call is docked at 0.20, indicating a 1-in-5 chance of an in-the-money finish.

Expanding the sentiment scope reveals put buyers have been active in NOK's options arena in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.67 sits just 10 percentage points from a 52-week peak.

Technically speaking, the withstanding skepticism among option traders more closely aligns to NOK's technical trajectory. Year-to-date, the shares have lost almost 9% to trade at $7.16. More recently, the stock made an attempt to fill its late-April earnings-induced bear gap, but was quickly halted by its descending 40-day moving average.

NQ Mobile Inc (ADR) (NYSE:NQ) is bucking the broad-market trend lower, surging 3.6% to flirt with $3.78. As such, calls are being exchanged at four times the rate expected at this point in the session. By the numbers, nearly 6,500 calls are on the tape, versus roughly 1,000 puts.

Buy-to-open activity is detected at the in-the-money July 3.50 call, which is NQ's most active option. By purchasing these positions at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.58, the traders are expressing confidence the stock will take out breakeven at $4.08 (strike plus VWAP) by the close on Friday, July 17 -- when back-month options expire.

Not everyone's so optimistic toward NQ. A lofty 17.5% of the security's float is sold short, representing more than two weeks' worth of pent-up buying power, at average daily volumes.

Technically speaking, NQ Mobile Inc (NYSE:NQ) has spent most of 2015 churning in the $3.50-$4.50 range. Meanwhile, the 10- and 20-day moving averages are on the verge of a bullish cross, hinting at potential short-term support.

"For those who prefer keeping it simple, the knee-jerk reaction to this rally is to sell the top of the range. But one has to seriously entertain the idea of betting on a breakout, especially after many market participants have gotten used to the trading range pattern, wondering what the next catalyst is, and forgetting that the market is a discounting mechanism … [P]essimism peaked and optimism is slowly returning, and such sentiment shifts from fear to optimism are usually supportive of stocks. The current sentiment shift occurs amid a backdrop in which the COMP, DJIA, and SPX are trading back above their respective round-number resistance levels." 
-- Monday Morning Outlook, May 18, 2015

If you are a bull, the good news is that major equity indexes experienced their second consecutive weekly close above respective round-number resistance levels. Moreover, for the first time this year, there was not a single day during the week in which these equity benchmarks retreated back below these round numbers. In other words, the routine selling that has quickly followed closes above 2,100 on the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 2,126.06), 18,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA - 18,232.02), and 5,000 on the Nasdaq Composite (COMP - 5,089.36) seems to be a fad that is disappearing. In fact, the SPX, DJIA, and S&P MidCap 400 Index (MID - 1,541.56) notched new all-time highs during the week, while the COMP is again within striking distance of its all-time intraday high of 5,132.

While on the subject of round numbers, also of interest is how the COMP (yellow line in Google Finance graph below) is seemingly moving higher from its 20% year-over-year (YoY) return, after dancing around this area for most of this year. Furthermore, the SPX (red line) is now using its 10% YoY return as support, after dancing around this level for much of the year. For next week, this would imply support between 2,100 and 2,110.

Meanwhile, the DJIA is still getting capped at its 10% YoY return -- which is especially interesting. If the DJIA closes at 18,220 at the end of this holiday-shortened week, it would close out the month with a 10% YoY return.

But as we mentioned last week, with a rally into early July last year, these support zones will be increasing, so even if these equity benchmarks continue to hover around their respective round-number YoY percentage returns, the outlook would be "minimal downside in the immediate term to higher stock prices during the next month," which presents an attractive risk-reward environment, from this perspective.

"… [N]eutral sentiment, or expectations the market will be unchanged over the next six months, among roughly 300 retail investors set a new record. It was above 45% for the seventh consecutive week, the longest stretch in history … According to AAII, periods of unusually high neutral sentiment are typically followed by outsized returns in the equity market over the next six and 12 months. The group classifies unusually high sentiment to be one standard deviation from the historical norm, which is 31% in the case of neutral attitude."
-- The Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2015

From a seasonality perspective, the Memorial Day trading week has historically been bullish, although this has not been the case in four of the past five years. For more on this, see the recent commentary written by Rocky White, our Senior Quantitative Analyst.

Out of curiosity, we took Rocky's seasonality study one step further and measured the historical sentiment backdrop among retail investors heading into the Memorial Day trading week, as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey. As a contrarian trader would expect, the less enthusiasm for stocks heading into the holiday week, the better the expected returns.

With the current bullish percentage only 25%, next week could lend a helping hand in terms of producing the expected positive 6-12 month returns following a period of high neutral sentiment, as depicted in The Wall Street Journal piece last week.

Understandably, if you don't want to put a lot of weight in the opinions of 300 retail investors, there are other sentiment tools that should be at your disposal. Fortunately, these indicators continue to suggest that short-term traders and investors are shifting from extreme pessimism to a more optimistic mindset, but the optimism has not hit a euphoric extreme. Therefore, the "sentiment cycle" remains supportive. In addition to equity option players shifting out of negative sentiment extreme (discussed last week), a weekly survey from the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) suggests these managers are increasing their equity allocations.

2.53 million of the 6.23 $VIX May call contracts expire this morning. If settle price < 13.00, at least 98.5% will expire worthless $SPX

— Todd Salamone (@toddsalamone) May 20, 2015

$VIX call volume the most active I've seen in a while on a $VIX expiration day..could be replacing calls that just expired $SPX.

— Todd Salamone (@toddsalamone) May 20, 2015

A risk to the bullish case, or potential headwind that we see, is the positioning of volatility players, who recently reduced their CBOE Volatility Index (VIX - 12.13) futures short exposure, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report. This is occurring with the VIX trading around its calendar-year low. With roughly 40% of outstanding VIX call contracts expiring last week, some of which might be hedges to short VIX futures positions, the urge to cover could grow in the coming days, sending volatility higher and stocks lower.

There are a couple of observations worth noting that might mitigate the risk we just identified. First, June and July VIX futures were carving out new lows late last week, so the urge to cover a short VIX futures position is reduced. Plus, with VIX call activity robust, many short volatility players could be replacing hedges, indicating they are not looking to cover short VIX futures positions in the immediate future.

StockTwits did a little data mining the other day to answer the question of when investors were most bullish, both in time of day and day of week. Intuitively, I would have guessed it's mostly random. There's no particular day-of-week or time-of-day biases in the actual market. If we had biases, they'd get gamed away in nanoseconds. The algo-bots would buy stocks at 10:57 every day, or whatever, until the blips smoothed out.

As far as sentiment goes though, I would have guessed wrong:

"...while investors and traders were overall quite bullish, investors were most bullish on weekends (when the market is closed) and trading day mornings (when the market was about to open). Additionally, they were most bearish in the middle of the trading week, towards the end of the day and after the close."

Wait, what? So, let me get this straight: Investors and traders like stocks when they can't actually see them trading. But once the ticker gets churning, they don't like them as much.

StockTwits offered a few hypotheses:

• "When money is at risk, people are more nervous and money is more likely (or perceived to be more likely) at risk while the markets are open.
• "On nights and weekends people are doing research and mostly sharing their picks, and since most people go long, picks that they share tend to be bullish.
• "The risk of negative news event is much more likely while markets are open then they are when they are closed."

I have a different theory. StockTwits is comprised mostly (but not entirely) of active traders. So it's not a totally representative sample of the marketplace. It does, however, provide a good proxy for a subsector of the marketplace -- namely, the "active trader" part. And as active traders, we tend to have very short time horizons. We all tell ourselves to remain patient, but that's WAY easier said than done. What's more, we have an even shorter time horizon when we put our opinions out in public view. Now our name and our trade are attached to our pick.

When the markets are closed -- or inactively trading, and not moving much in off-hours -- it's relatively easy to stick with a call. But then the bell rings, and inevitably the stock doesn't instantly act as we think it will, and we begin to lose faith ... and, ergo, we don't feel so bullish about it anymore.

So to me, the dynamic StockTwits highlights here sounds somewhat counterintuitive on the surface. But if you think about it, it kind of does make sense. We all have such short attention spans, and it's likely that we collectively bail too soon on even our best ideas.

I'm not an active trader anymore, but when I was, I sometimes put some trade thoughts out on StockTwits (and before that, an options blog I penned). And I felt way worse and/or foolish if I went "public" with a trade that didn't work out than I did on perhaps a way worse trade or position that I never mentioned. So yeah, I could see the whole experience here. Have an idea, tweet it out, have it not work quickly, and then turn negative.

I guess the bigger question is whether there's a dynamic here we can fade and capitalize on? I would say probably not. And that's because as many machines as we invent, it's still human nature that guides prices. If we get too bullish, they fall in our face. If we start thinking we'll never see our stocks lift again and we give up, all of a sudden there are buyers. To me, this StockTwits finding is very interesting, but it's part of why stocks move the way they do to begin with.

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Analysts are weighing in today on tech wizard Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), semiconductor firm Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRVL), and party supply retailer Party City Holdco Inc (NYSE:PRTY). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on AAPL, MRVL, and PRTY.

• AAPL is fractionally higher in pre-market action -- preparing to add to its 20% year-to-date lead, as the shares settled at $132.54 on Friday. Helping the stock is a price-target increase at Cowen and Company to $140 from $135. Elsewhere, the company announced this morning that longtime designer Jony Ive has been promoted to the newly created position of chief design officer. Taking a look at the recent option trading activity on Apple Inc. reveals a somewhat bearish trend. During the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity has amassed a put/call volume ratio of 0.55, which is only 4 percentage points from an annual high.


• Last week, analysts waxed pessimistic on MRVL, following the company's first-quarter earnings report. This morning, however, the security is up 1.6% ahead of the bell -- thanks to Morgan Stanley, which raised its outlook to "overweight" from "equal rate," and moved its price target up to $17.50 from $15. Sentiment is mixed among the brokerage bunch. Nine firms say Marvell Technology Group Ltd. is a "buy" or better, while 11 have handed out "hold" ratings, and four others "sell" or worse opinions. On the charts, the equity has underperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by over 19 percentage points in the past three months, finishing at $13.14 on Friday. Currently, MRVL's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory, at 28.


• Several brokerage firms initiated coverage on Wall Street newcomer PRTY this morning. Notably, J.P. Morgan Securities started the shares with an "overweight" rating, and a price target of $26 -- a 19.3% premium to Friday's close at $21.80. Credit Suisse set its price target at the same level, while Deutsche Bank handed out a $25 price target, and called the shares a "buy." As a result, the stock is up 1.9% in electronic trading. Through Party City Holdco Inc's first few days of option trading, it's seen 280 calls bought to open at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, compared to just 13 puts. 

Analysts are weighing in today on alternative energy issue First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR), as well as coal concerns Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE:ANR) and Arch Coal Inc (NYSE:ACI). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on FSLR, ANR, and ACI. 

• RBC downgraded FSLR to "underperform" from "sector perform," and slashed its price target by $20 to $34, citing the company's "flattish" revenue growth forecast for this year and next. As such, the shares are pointed 4% lower ahead of the bell. Longer term, however, First Solar, Inc. is sitting on a 23.5% year-to-date lead at $55.07. Options traders have been skeptical toward the stock in recent weeks. FSLR's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 2.45 sits at the top of its annual range. Should the shares resume their longer-term uptrend, a capitulation among these doubters could result in tailwinds.


• ANR has struggled mightily on the charts, shedding 61% year-to-date to rest at $0.65. That trend is continuing this morning, with the equity dropping 7.7% ahead of the open, after being started with an "underperform" assessment and $0.50 price target at Credit Suisse. In fact, Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. is on track to open at a new record low. Meanwhile, short sellers have been piling on. Roughly one-third of ANR's float is sold short, which would take close to 14 sessions to repurchase, at the stock's average daily trading levels.


• Sector peer ACI is also struggling in electronic trading, after Credit Suisse slapped it with a new "underperform" rating and $0.50 price target. The bearish note has sent the shares 9.4% south of breakeven ahead of the open, putting them on pace for an all-time low. Longer term, Arch Coal Inc has surrendered nearly 63% in 2015 to sit at $0.66. Short sellers have taken note, too. Close to 23% of ACI's float is dedicated to short interest, and at its average trading volume, it would take more than three weeks to repurchase all these bearish bets.

Stocks are headed south, as traders digest the latest durable goods data -- and look ahead to a slew of housing reports on the day's docket. Meanwhile, among specific equities in focus are broadcasting giant Time Warner Cable Inc (NYSE:TWC), car concern AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO), and smartphone specialist BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY).

• Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR) said it would purchase TWC for roughly $195.71 per share, or $55 billion -- a 14.3% premium to Friday's close at $171.18. The confirmation puts to rest recent speculation, and sent the shares to an all-time best of $180.95 out of the gate -- with TWC last seen up 4.3% at $178.55. Longer term, the security has tacked on 17.4% in 2015, and option traders have been rolling the dice on more upside. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Time Warner Cable Inc's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.56 rests in the 92nd annual percentile. In other words, calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster clip just 8% of the time within the past year.

• AZO this morning unveiled a fiscal third-quarter profit that exceeded expectations, sending the shares 0.3% higher in electronic trading. Today's projected price move only echoes AZO's withstanding technical trajectory, with the stock boasting a 33% year-over-year lead, and fresh off an April 24 record high of $705. Should AutoZone, Inc. continue its march higher, a round of upgrades and/or price-target hikes could fuel the security's fire. Currently, 78% of those covering the shares maintain a "hold" rating, while the average 12-month price target of $687.40 stands at a discount to AZO's current perch at $690.28.

• In the wake of last week's buyback announcement, BBRY said it will be laying off workers in its smartphone division. On the charts, the stock has found a firm foothold atop the round-number $10 mark since mid-May -- home to its 32-day moving average -- and was last seen lingering near $10.48. However, skepticism is strong toward BlackBerry Ltd. In the options pits, the equity's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.56 rests at an annual peak. Elsewhere, 16.9% of the stock's float is sold short, representing more than two weeks of pent-up buying demand, at average daily trading levels. Should BBRY continue its trek in double-digit territory, a capitulation from some of the weaker bearish hands could create a fresh burst of buying power.

For the past several weeks, call buying has been the strategy of choice among eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) traders. The security's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio stands at 2.99, meaning roughly three calls have been bought to open for each put. Plus, this reading is only 10 percentage points from an annual peak.

Things are no different today, as nearly 3,600 calls have crossed in EBAY's option pits compared to fewer than 830 puts. It looks like the weekly 6/5 61-strike call is being bought to open, as traders bet on the stock to topple $61 -- which would mark an all-time high -- by next Friday's close, when the series expires.

Elsewhere on the Street, the stock received bullish attention from Axiom, where an analyst upgraded EBAY to a "buy" from "hold" ahead of its PayPal spinoff. The note stated, "Both companies should be well-capitalized after the spin and both are likely to be acquisition candidates in the years following the separation." Regardless, EBAY shares are off 1.1% at $59.07 at last check.

Sentiment is mixed among the other analysts covering eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY), which has traded between $55 and $61 since late February. As it stands now, 13 brokerage firms call the stock at least a "buy," with 15 others calling it a "hold" or worse.