Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Dec 8, 2014 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) matched a 12-year high of $36.50 on Friday, and has already topped that mark this morning, touching $36.59 minutes ago. At last check, however, the shares were off 0.4% at $36.36. In options land, the April 27 call saw the biggest translation in open interest over the weekend -- adding nearly 7,800 contracts -- suggesting fresh bets were placed to end last week.

Taking a quick step back, calls outstripped puts by a more than 1.5-to-1 margin on Friday. The most active MU strike by a mile was the deep in-the-money April 27 call, referenced earlier, where 8,001 contracts changed hands. The vast majority did so at the ask price, suggesting newly bought bullish bets.

While the calls are currently in the money, at-expiration breakeven on the trade is $37.20, or the strike plus the volume-weighted average price of $10.20. This represents a level not explored since March 2002, and a 2.3% premium to MU's current perch.

Regardless, Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) has been a monster on the charts, advancing more than 67% year-to-date. If this trend continues, a short-covering rally could materialize, as nearly 9% of the equity's float is sold short. This represents more than a weeks' worth of pent-up buying demand, at MU's average daily trading volume.

Published on Dec 8, 2014 at 10:09 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Call buyers have been active in McDonald's Corporation's (NYSE:MCD) options pits in recent months, as evidenced by the equity's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 2.29, which ranks in the 99th annual percentile. Simply stated, calls have been bought to open over puts with more rapidity just 1% of the time within the past year.

It was a similar set-up on Friday, with calls crossing the tape at a faster-than-usual clip, and outpacing puts by a 2-to-1 margin. Buy-to-open activity was detected at MCD's weekly 12/12 97-strike call, which speculators scooped up at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.45. Based on this average entry price, breakeven for the call buyers at this Friday's close is $97.45 (strike plus VWAP). Profit will accrue north of here, while losses are limited to the initial cash outlay, should MCD settle south of the strike at week's end, when the series expires.

Unfortunately for this batch of option bulls, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) has plunged 3.3% out of the gate to churn near $93.10 -- and is the leading laggard on the Dow -- after reporting a steep drop in global sales. What's more, the bid price of the weekly 12/12 97-strike call is currently docked at $0.05, meaning Friday's call buyers are already staring at paper losses. Plus, amid today's plunge, delta on the call has fallen to 0.06 after closing last week at 0.36, suggesting a slim 6% chance the option will be in the money at week's end.

Published on Dec 5, 2014 at 2:40 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

A wider-than-expected third-quarter loss and a price-target cut to $52 from $53 at Deutsche Bank have sent shares of Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE:BIG) decidedly lower today. At last check, the stock was off 15.4% at $40.56 -- earning BIG a spot on the short-sale restricted list. Against this backdrop, puts are trading at 11 times what's typically seen at this point in the day, as speculators look for alternate ways to bet bearishly on the security.

Specifically, the equity's December 40 put has seen the most action today, with 1,704 contracts on the tape. A healthy portion of these puts have traded at the ask price, and fewer than 200 contracts are currently in residence at this round-number strike, making it safe to assume new positions are being purchased. Delta on the put is docked at negative 0.42, suggesting a roughly 2-in-5 chance the position will be in the money at the close on Friday, Dec. 19, when front-month options expire.

From a wider sentiment perspective, today's put-skewed session just echoes the withstanding trend. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 2.63 ranks in the 95th annual percentile. Considering Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE:BIG) was up nearly 49% year-to-date heading into today's session, this recent rush of put buying may have been at the hands of shareholders protecting paper profits against an unexpected decline.

Published on Dec 5, 2014 at 1:43 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below are the names that have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Those highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), where eleventh-hour option traders are rolling the dice on the equity's end-of-day trajectory.

Most Active Weekly Options Table

So far today, Twitter Inc calls are running at more than double the pace of puts -- despite the shares giving back 0.5% to hover near $38.60. Digging deeper, a number of traders are honing in on the weekly 12/5 39-strike call, where more than 3,500 contracts are on the tape.

Activity at this near-the-money strike is close to even between the bid and ask sides, signaling selling and buying, respectively. What's more, volume outstrips open interest, making it safe to assume fresh bets are being placed.

In a nutshell, today's call writers anticipate TWTR will spend the next few hours below the strike and expire worthless at 4 p.m. ET. By contrast, the buyers are hoping for a last-minute rally in the shares, and an end-of-week settlement atop $39.

Looking at the charts, Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) hasn't closed a week below the aforementioned strike since late July. However, the shares have been in freefall mode since their most recent high of $55.99 in early October, shedding 31% in less than two months.

Published on Dec 5, 2014 at 1:15 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Although Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) stumbled after hitting a record peak of $116.83 in late October, the stock found support near the century mark, and was last seen trading at $105.11 -- up 3.2% on the day. Amid today's analyst-induced bounce, calls are crossing the tape at two times the average intraday pace -- a change of pace to the withstanding trend -- with a number of speculators rolling the dice on an extended rise over the next six weeks.

GILD's most active option is the at-the-money January 2015 105-strike call, where 7,280 contracts are on the tape. The majority of the action has occurred on the ask side, and implied volatility is up 1.9 percentage points -- pointing to the purchase of new positions.

Today's call buyers will profit if Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) is resting above breakeven at $108.98 (strike plus the volume-weighted average price of $3.98) at the close on Friday, Jan. 16 -- when the back-month options expire. Profit is theoretically unlimited beyond here, while losses are capped at the initial premium paid, should the stock settle south of the strike at expiration. At last check, delta on the call was docked at 0.52, suggesting a 52% chance the option will be in the money at expiration.

Published on Dec 5, 2014 at 11:57 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Ahead of last night's earnings report, Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA) options flew off the shelves at quadruple the average intraday pace. However, even though the shares have tumbled nearly 2% to $54.57 around midday, short-term put options on the stock have actually declined in value. The reason: a massive volatility crush.

For example, yesterday's most active strike was the weekly 12/5 50 put, which traded at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.46. While one might assume that this morning's sell-off would make these puts more valuable, the opposite is actually true -- VWAP is now sitting at just $0.09, due to a plunge in implied volatility.

Essentially, the options market had priced in a much bigger post-earnings move for AMBA -- 13.5%, to be specific -- than what actually materialized. In other words, it was a great opportunity to sell premium on the stock ahead of earnings, and data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) indicates a few savvy traders did just that at the weekly 12/5 50-strike put.

Returning to the quarterly report itself, Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA) topped the Street's per-share profit and sales estimates for the fiscal third quarter. The brokerage bunch responded to the news positively, as no fewer than five firms upped their price targets on the stock.

Published on Dec 5, 2014 at 10:39 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a technical marvel in 2014, sporting a more than 50% year-to-date lead at $226.02. However, that didn't prevent one group of option traders from banking on a short-term technical ceiling for shares of the electric car maker.

Jumping right in, a number of last-minute traders hit the options pits yesterday, as nine of TSLA's 10 most active strikes will expire tonight. Leading the way was the weekly 12/5 230-strike call, where 7,755 contracts were exchanged. However, a solid proportion of these bets weren't of the "vanilla" variety.

The majority of the 230-strike calls traded at the bid price, suggesting they were sold. Plus, open interest added 1,001 positions overnight, making it safe to assume fresh wagers were placed -- a theory partially confirmed by the International Securities Exchange (ISE). In other words, these call writers anticipate TSLA will churn below $230 through tonight's close -- allowing the contracts to expire worthless, and the speculators to retain the initial premium received as their maximum potential profit.

A closer look at the charts reveals that Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) -- while still a technical beast -- has struggled in recent weeks. While the shares have gotten a recent lift from their 40-week moving average, they are now sitting below this trendline (located at $231.19), which could be switching roles to act as resistance.

Published on Dec 5, 2014 at 7:39 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are alternative energy concern Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ), blue chip Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE), and video game concern Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA). Below, we'll break down how option buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on CSIQ, PFE, and EA.

  • Despite closing 2.6% higher yesterday at $23.81, CSIQ is off more than 20% in 2014. Even with the equity's struggles, calls have been the options of choice among speculators. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Canadian Solar Inc.'s 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.96 sits only 3 percentage points from an annual bullish peak. With a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 64% -- in its 27th annual percentile -- CSIQ's short-term options are on the inexpensive side, from a volatility perspective.

  • Yesterday PFE dropped 0.3% to finish at $31.67. However, since hitting an annual low of $27.51 in mid-October, the stock has tacked on 15.2%. The jump on the charts hasn't been enough to ward off option bears, though. Pfizer Inc.'s 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio comes in at 1.13, higher than 96% of similar readings taken in the past year. If PFE continues to climb the charts, it could see a boost as these bears begin to capitulate. According to the stock's SVI -- which, at 17%, ranks in the 38th percentile of its annual range -- the security's front-month options are relatively inexpensive, on a volatility basis.

  • EA continued its journey to new highs yesterday, gaining 1.1% to end the session at $46.49, and hitting a fresh multi-year peak of $46.98. The stock has more than doubled in value in 2014 alone. Elsewhere, though, options traders expect the equity's strong run to come to an end, per its 10-day put/call volume ratio at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX. The reading of 1.49 sits in the bearishly skewed 87th percentile of its annual range. Electronic Arts Inc.'s short-term options are attractively priced, from a volatility perspective, as its SVI of 27% lands in its 23rd annual percentile.

Published on Dec 4, 2014 at 2:39 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Short-term Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) option traders have shown a preference for puts over calls, as evidenced by the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.82, which ranks in the 75th annual percentile. However, this measures both buy- and sell-to-open activity, and according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), BTU traders have been doing a mix of both. Specifically, over the past 20 sessions, speculators on this trio of exchanges have sold to open 1.52 puts for each one they've purchased.

It's a similar set-up in today's session, with both short and long positions being initiated at the equity's January 2015 8-strike put -- BTU's most active option. By selling to open the puts, speculators expect the $8 level to serve as a foothold through the close on Friday, Jan. 16 -- when back-month options expire -- allowing them to pocket the initial credit collected as their full potential reward.

Conversely, those buying to open the puts are betting on BTU to be sitting below this mark at expiration. More specifically, the traders' profit will accrue on a move south of breakeven at $7.64 (strike less the volume-weighted average price of $0.36), territory not charted since November 2003. Delta on the put is docked at negative 0.26, suggesting a 1-in-4 shot of an in-the-money finish at expiration.

Multi-year lows are not out of the question for Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), though, which tumbled to a fresh 10-year bottom of $8.73 earlier. At last check, though, the equity was down 2.1% at $8.99 -- extending its year-to-date deficit to 54% -- as a large sale of Natural Resource Partners LP (NYSE:NRP) shares sparks a sector-wide selloff.

Published on Dec 4, 2014 at 2:06 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) touched a multi-year high of $55.43 just moments ago -- and was last seen 0.3% higher at $55.40 -- as shareholders are apparently unfazed by the start of a metals fraud trial. Options traders, meanwhile, are wagering on even higher highs for the financial stock over the next few weeks.

Taking a quick step back, C's call volume is running at 1.3 times the expected intraday rate, and more than triples the number of puts on the tape. Seeing the most action is the December 55.50 call, where 3,628 contracts have changed hands. The majority have done so at the ask price, and volume outstrips open interest, pointing to buy-to-open activity -- a change of pace from the put-buying trend we've observed in recent weeks.

By purchasing the near-the-money calls, the traders anticipate C will topple $55.50 by the close on Friday, Dec. 19, when front-month options expire. To put this in perspective, the shares haven't explored the north side of that strike since January 2009. Right now, delta on the call is 0.48, suggesting the contract has about a 1-in-2 chance of being in the money at expiration.

On the charts, Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) has advanced a modest 6.3% in 2014. But, since hitting a mid-October low of $48.11, the shares have tacked on an impressive 15.2%, with an assist from C's supportive 20-week trendline.

Published on Dec 4, 2014 at 1:19 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Although NQ Mobile Inc (ADR) (NYSE:NQ) has dropped 3.4% today to linger near $6.30, calls are trading at two times the intraday average, and are outpacing puts by a more than 20-to-1 margin. Traders are rolling the dice on the equity's short-term trajectory, with all of NQ's 10 most active options expiring in the next six weeks.

Most popular is the equity's December 8 call, where 6,793 contracts have changed hands. Almost all of these have traded at the ask price, and implied volatility has jumped 11.8 percentage points, hinting at the purchase of new positions.

Today's call buyers will profit if NQ is sitting north of breakeven at $8.20 (strike plus the volume-weighted average price of $0.20) at the close on Friday, Dec. 19, when the front-month series expires. Gains are theoretically unlimited north of here, while losses are capped at the initial cash outlay, should the stock close south of the strike at expiration. Delta on the call is docked at 0.22, suggesting a roughly 1-in-5 chance the option will be in the money at the end of its lifetime.

Expanding the sentiment scope reveals today's call-skewed session is just more of the same. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), NQ's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 10.28 ranks higher than 98% of similar readings taken in the past year. With 15.5% of NQ Mobile Inc's (ADR) (NYSE:NQ) float sold short, though, a portion of this call buying could be a result of short sellers initiating hedges for their bearish bets.

Published on Dec 4, 2014 at 1:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is semiconductor specialist Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), where one long-term optimist is upping the bullish ante.

Most Active Options Table

Micron Technology, Inc. has had a standout year, with the shares up around 65% to trade at $35.98. This technical tenacity was in full force earlier today, when the stock hit the $36.50 mark -- its loftiest perch in more than 12 years. Against this backdrop, one optimistic options player is hoping for another strong showing in 2015 by rolling up her LEAPS position.

Taking a quick step back, MU calls are trading at 1.3 times the intraday average, and are outpacing puts by a more than 2-to-1 margin. A healthy portion of this activity has centered at two strikes -- the January 2016 25- and 37-strike calls, where a collective 19,482 contracts have changed hands.

According to Trade-Alert, the lower-strike calls were sold to close, while the higher-strike calls were bought to open. In other words, it appears this trader upwardly revised her bullish bet, eyeing a move over the next 13 months to levels not seen since March 2002.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals sentiment is skewed toward the skeptical side. For starters, MU's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.33 ranks in the bearishly skewed 79th annual percentile. Plus, it would take nearly six sessions to cover all of Micron Technology, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MU) shorted shares, at average daily trading volumes. Going forward, a capitulation from these bears in the face of the stock's uptrend could create a fresh wave of buying power.

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