Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Dec 24, 2014 at 10:46 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) is being a proverbial Scrooge this morning, sitting out the broad-market trend higher. The stock was last seen 0.5% lower at $33.40, bringing its 2014 deficit to 18.3%. Nevertheless, option traders remain eternally optimistic, with calls trading at almost twice the typical intraday rate.

Roughly 14,000 GM calls have changed hands, compared to fewer than 1,100 puts. Most active are the January 2015, February, and March 35-strike calls, where a healthy portion of the contracts were seemingly bought to open. By purchasing the calls to open, the buyers expect GM to climb back atop $35 within the options' respective lifetimes.

On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the automaker's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.78 stands higher than 90% of all other readings from the past year. In other words, GM option buyers have picked up calls over puts at a much faster-than-usual clip during the past two weeks.

However, this bullish bias seems unwarranted. On the charts, GM has struggled during the past year, with rebound attempts stymied by its 10-month moving average -- a trendline that hasn't been conquered on a monthly closing basis since January. Off the charts, compensation claims related to faulty ignition switches continue to climb, and the impact of the ruble-related suspension of sales in Russia has yet to be seen.

Monthly Chart of GM since August 2013 with 10-Month Moving Average

Should General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) continue to struggle both technically and fundamentally, an unwinding of optimism in the options pits could exacerbate selling pressure on the shares. Likewise, seven out of 13 analysts maintain "buy" or better opinions, and the average 12-month price target of $40 sits in territory not charted in nearly a year. A wave of downgrades and/or price-target reductions could also pressure GM lower.

Published on Dec 24, 2014 at 10:10 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) dropped 3% yesterday to land at $105.52, bringing its month-to-date decline to 5.5%. Not surprisingly, puts traded at a 61% mark-up to the typical intraday pace.

Much of this activity can be traced to the January 2015 105-strike put, where a block of 5,200 contracts was exchanged in the morning, along with a matching lot of January 2015 105-strike calls -- creating a possible synthetic long position. However, it appears these contracts were tied to stock, clouding the speculator's motives.

A more straightforward play involved buy-to-open activity at BABA's January 2015 99-strike put. These traders are banking on continued downside in the shares through the close on Friday, Jan. 16, when the front-month options expire. Specifically, they're expecting the equity to settle below $99 at expiration -- a level that hasn't been breached since late October.

Elsewhere on the Street, the brokerage bunch is displaying extreme optimism toward Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA). All 22 covering analysts rate the shares a "buy" or "strong buy," and the stock's consensus 12-month price target stands in record-high territory, at $120.42. If BABA continues to struggle, a potential round of negative brokerage attention could intensify selling pressure.

Published on Dec 24, 2014 at 9:22 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been in a long-term uptrend, guided higher by its 10-month moving average since April 2013. More recently, the shares have rallied 23.1% since hitting their Oct. 13 low of $16.77 to trade north of the round-number $20 mark, at $20.65. In spite of this upward momentum, options traders have been upping the bearish ante in recent weeks.

Monthly Chart of NVDA Since December 2012 with 10-Month Moving Average

At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio has jumped to 1.08 from 0.46 over the past two weeks. What's more, the current ratio ranks in the 96th percentile of its annual range, meaning puts have been bought to open over calls with more rapidity just 4% of the time within the past year.

This appetite for puts was witnessed on Tuesday, with the contracts crossing the tape at a rate five times the daily average. Option bears set their sights on the February series, with buy-to-open activity detected at the 15, 16, and 17 strikes. By initiating these long puts, speculators expect NVDA to breach these levels by the close on Friday, Feb. 20, when the back-month series expires. Of course, it's also possible some of these positions were erected to act as a downside hedge.

The options market doesn't seem too confident these puts will be in the money at expiration. Delta on the February 15 strike, for example, closed last night at negative 0.047, while delta on the February 16 and 17 strikes is docked at negative 0.064 and negative 0.11, respectively.

On the fundamental front, the International Trade Commission yesterday said it is investigating patent-infringement claims made by Samsung against NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA). NVDA responded by saying it "remains focused on ensuring that we receive fair compensation from Samsung for using our technology in Galaxy phones and tablets ... We look forward to the court setting this right."

Published on Dec 24, 2014 at 7:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are airplane wireless provider Gogo Inc (NASDAQ: GOGO), pharmaceutical firm Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK), and online review issue Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP). Below, we'll break down how option buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on GOGO, MRK, and YELP.

  • GOGO has tumbled this year, losing roughly 33.8% of its value year-to-date to settle at $16.43. Accordingly, sentiment in the stock's options pits has grown increasingly bearish. Gogo Inc's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.94 stands higher than 92% of all similar readings taken in the past year, showing a healthier-than-usual appetite for puts over calls during the past two weeks. Relatively speaking, short-term options have never been this cheap for the equity in 2014, as its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 46% is the lowest such reading taken this year. Short sellers have also taken an interest in GOGO -- short interest accounts for nearly 27% of the stock's float, which would take just under three weeks to cover, at average daily trading volumes.

  • Shares of MRK have improved in 2014, adding 14,3% year-to-date, despite a 2.97% loss yesterday -- the result of a sector-wide swoon -- to perch at $57.21. Regardless of Merck & Co., Inc.'s positive yearly growth, option buyers have been picking up puts over calls at a faster-than-usual-clip; the security's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 1.04 ranks in the 96th percentile of its annual range. Additionally, MRK's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.39 sits just 4 percentage points below a 52-week peak, showing a bigger-than-usual preference for short-term puts over calls. However, short-term options are relatively inexpensive for MRK at the moment, as its SVI of 18% ranks in the 33rd percentile of all similar readings taken in 2014.

  • YELP has struggled on the charts, shedding 22.6% of its value year-to-date to land at $53.36, roughly 8.7 percentage points away from its annual low of $49.11. In defiance of this downward trend, sentiment in the stock's options pits is extremely bullish. Yelp Inc's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 3.33 is higher than 96% of all similar readings taken in the past year; an unwinding of optimism in the equity's options pits could send the shares lower. Meanwhile, YELP's short-term options are currently cheap, relatively speaking, as its SVI of 44% sits in the mere 7th percentile of its annual range. On top of that, YELP's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 100 indicates the shares have made aggressively large swings over the past year, relative to what the options market has priced in.
Published on Dec 23, 2014 at 2:45 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) was up by as much as 6.9% today -- amid the expiration of the company's first lockup period -- and was last seen 2.9% above breakeven at $59.59. Meanwhile, options volume is running at a 33% mark-up to the typical intraday rate, and the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has edged 1.5% higher to 72.7%, signaling elevated demand for short-term strikes.

Looking more closely, speculators are taking different paths toward GPRO. On the one hand, it appears option bulls are buying to open the January 2015 60-strike call, hoping the shares will topple the round-number mark by the close on Friday, Jan. 16, when the newly front-month options expire. On the other, shorter-term speculators are initiating long positions at the weekly 12/26 59-strike put, anticipating the stock will breach $59 by this Friday's close, when the series ceases trading.

Taking a step back, over the last month, option buyers have targeted calls over puts by a modest margin. Specifically, GPRO's 20-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio checks in at 1.22.

On the charts, it's been a volatile past few months for GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO), which ran to an all-time high of $98.47 in early October, before pulling back in recent months. However, today's gains have the stock primed to close atop its 10-day moving average for the first time since late November.

Daily Chart of GPRO since September 2014 with 10-Day Moving Average

Published on Dec 23, 2014 at 2:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

It turns out Sony Corp (ADR) (NYSE:SNE) will screen "The Interview" on Christmas Day after all, backtracking from last week's decision to put a lid on the controversial movie. Upon making the announcement, the shares shot higher, and are now 1% above breakeven at $20.99, with options traders eyeing additional upside.

Taking a quick step back, SNE options are crossing at 1.8 times the usual intraday clip. Also, a number of mid-sized blocks were exchanged during the lunch hour, when the aforementioned news hit the Street. Digging deeper, speculators are buying to open the weekly 12/26 21-strike call, anticipating at least modest upside through week's end, when the series expires.

Today's penchant for call buying breaks with the recent trend observed in SNE's options pits. During the last two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity has racked up a put/call volume ratio of 5.62, which ranks in the 99th annual percentile.

Returning to today's headlines, Sony Corp (ADR) (NYSE:SNE) also made waves by threatening to sue Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) because of users who have been posting screenshots of illegally obtained emails. The former is asking the latter to enforce its policies, which prohibit the posting of another person's private data.

Published on Dec 23, 2014 at 1:35 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is lower today, as uncertainty surrounding Express Scripts Holding Company's (NASDAQ:ESRX) exclusive pact with AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) continues to create headwinds throughout the pharmaceutical sector. In the equity's options pits, put volume has popped to seven times what's typically seen at this point in the day, with one speculator betting big on an extended decline for JNJ over the next several weeks.

Specifically, the January 2015 102-strike put is JNJ's most active option by a mile. The majority of the activity here occurred when a massive block of 16,994 contracts was bought to open for roughly $1.1 million (number of contracts * $0.65 premium paid * 100 shares per contract).

This is the most the speculator stands to lose, should JNJ finish north of $102 at the close on Friday, Jan. 16, when front-month options expire. Profit, meanwhile, will accrue on a move south of the at-expiration breakeven price of $101.35 (strike less premium paid).

Unfortunately, today's option bear has two important technical levels to contend with. Specifically, the equity's 200-day moving average showed its might as support during last week's quick retreat, while JNJ's 160-day moving average is helping to contain today's pullback. Longer term, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) has surged roughly 62% since mid-June 2012 to trade at $104.20, thanks to a lift from these two trendlines.

Daily Chart of JNJ Since June 2012 With 160-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages
Published on Dec 23, 2014 at 11:01 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ:CREE) is up 2.4% this morning to trade at $32.90, and options traders are responding in kind. In fact, calls are crossing the tape at a rate nine times the intraday average, and are outpacing puts by a more than 3-to-1 margin. Short-term contracts are in high demand, too, as evidenced by CREE's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility, which has jumped 6.8% to 51.9% -- in the 82nd percentile of its annual range.

Drilling down, the equity's January 2015 33-strike call has seen the most action, and according to Trade-Alert, a number of these positions were bought to open. Amid today's pop, delta on the call has risen to 0.51 from 0.41 at last night's close, implying a greater probability the option will be in the money at the close on Friday, Jan. 16 -- when front-month options expire.

From a wider sentiment perspective, today's accelerated call activity marks a change of pace in CREE's options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.69 ranks just 3 percentage points from an annual bearish peak.

Echoing this is the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.83, which ranks higher than 92% of similar readings taken in the past year. Simply stated, short-term speculators have rarely been as put-heavy as they are now.

Looking at the charts, the withstanding trend toward puts aligns more accurately with CREE's technical showing. Year-to-date, the equity has surrendered more than 47% of its value. More recently, Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ:CREE) has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by north of 26 percentage points over the past 60 sessions.

Published on Dec 23, 2014 at 10:35 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) popped 2.4% yesterday to land at $532.30, after the firm unveiled the first real build of its self-driving vehicle prototype. The rally had options traders exchanging contracts at a slightly accelerated rate, with short-term strikes in demand -- per the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility, which rose 6.3% to 24.5%.

Speculators employed different strategies to express their confidence in GOOGL. The most active option was the January 2015 500-strike put, which was sold to open, as traders expect the half-millennium mark to serve as support through front-month options expiration. This preference for short puts over long has been witnessed over the last 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), where 32,676 puts have been sold to open -- outstripping the 31,369 bought to open.

Meanwhile, shorter-term bettors bought to open GOOGL calls, with particular attention being paid to the weekly 12/26 535 strike. These traders are hoping the stock settles above $535 at this Friday's close, when the series expires. They're in luck, with the shares up 0.9% this morning at $536.80.

Longer term, however, Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) remains a broad-market laggard. Since the start of 2014, the stock is down 4.3%, and is currently testing a historical level of resistance at its 32-day moving average.

Published on Dec 23, 2014 at 10:04 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Russia's woes have been fodder for the Street of late, and these troubles have been witnessed in the recent price action of the Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:RSX) -- the largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the country. Month-to-date, the ETF has shed 20.3% to trade at $15.58, and hit a five-year low of $12.50 one week ago. Speculators think there's more downside on the horizon, though, as evidenced by Monday's action in RSX's options pits.

Taking a quick step back, puts traded at 1.3 times the average daily pace on Monday. The vast majority of the day's action centered on RSX's January 2015 11-strike put, where two large blocks totaling 30,150 contracts were bought to open for $753,750 (number of contracts * $0.25 premium paid * 100 shares per contract).

This is the most the speculator stands to lose, should RSX settle above $11 at the close on Friday, Jan. 16 -- when the front-month contracts expire. Gains, meanwhile, will accumulate if the ETF is sitting below breakeven at $10.75 (strike less premium paid) at expiration -- territory not charted since February 2009.

Regardless, this trader was willing to pay up for her bearish bet. Not only did the Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust's (NYSEARCA:RSX) 30-day at-the-money implied volatility close at 67.2% yesterday -- in the 99th annual percentile -- but its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 67% rests higher than 88% of similar readings taken in the past year. Simply stated, premium on RSX's front-month options is relatively expensive at the moment.

Published on Dec 23, 2014 at 8:02 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are Chinese Internet search provider Baidu Inc (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU), tech titan Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO), and java giant Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ:GMCR). Below, we'll break down how option buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on BIDU, CSCO, and GMCR.

  • BIDU has performed well in 2014, gaining nearly 32% year-to-date to trade at $234.60. More recently, BIDU has tacked on 2.34% since its Dec. 11 close at $229.23, after announcing a roughly $600 million stake in ride sharing app Uber earlier this month. However, bearish sentiment in the equity's options pits is growing. Baidu Inc's (ADR) 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.62 ranks higher than 85% of all similar readings taken over the past year. Meanwhile, the stock's near-term options are relatively cheap, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 31%, which is in the 18th annual percentile.

  • Shares of CSCO are also on the rise, adding nearly 26% year-to-date to perch at $28.22. What's more, the shares hit the $28.29 mark on Monday -- their loftiest perch since December 2007. Surprisingly, options traders are bearish on Cisco Systems, Inc., with the equity's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.91 resting in the 85th percentile of its annual range. Should CSCO continue its trek into multi-year-high territory, an unwinding of pessimism in CSCO's option pits could send the shares even higher. Nonetheless, the security's short-term options are inexpensive, on a volatility basis, per its SVI of 17%, which ranks in the 24th percentile of its 52-week range.

  • GMCR has had a monster year, increasing roughly 85% in value to linger near $140. Since topping out at a record peak of $158.87 on Nov. 18, the equity has been in consolidation mode, and has lost nearly 11%. However, speculators have been betting on a quick turnaround, per the equity's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 1.54, which ranks above 81% of all other such readings taken over the past year. Keurig Green Mountain Inc's short-term options are available at near-bottom-of-the-barrel prices, relatively speaking, as its SVI of 30% ranks in the 8th percentile of its yearly range. Furthermore, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 indicates the shares have tended to make outsized moves over the past year, relative to what the options market has priced in. Ahead of the bell, GMCR is pointed 1% lower as traders digest news of a recall of the company's MINI Plus Brewing System units.
Published on Dec 22, 2014 at 2:30 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Priceline Group Inc (NASDAQ:PCLN) has tacked on 3.6% this afternoon to trade at $1,150.49. In the equity's options pits, meanwhile, calls are trading at a slight mark-up to the average intraday pace, with a number of speculators rolling the dice on an extended run higher through week's end.

Specifically, the stock's weekly 12/26 1,150-strike call is the most active PCLN option today, and it appears a number of these contracts are being bought to open. Amid today's rally, delta on the call has jumped to 0.45 from 0.078 at Friday's close, indicating an increased probability the option will be in the money at this Friday's close, when the weekly series expires.

From a wider sentiment standpoint, option bulls have been targeting PCLN for some time now. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for example, the equity's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.17 ranks just 3 percentage points from an annual bullish peak.

On the charts, PCLN has put in an uninspiring performance in 2014, with the shares sitting 1% below where they started the year. Longer term, though, Priceline Group Inc (NASDAQ:PCLN) has grown nearly tenfold since April 2009, thanks to a lift atop its 80-week moving average -- and this rising trendline helped to contain a number of the stock's recent pullbacks.

Weekly Chart of PCLN Since April 2009 With 80-Week Moving Average

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