What the final trading week of March lacked in length, it more than made up for in market-moving headlines and volatile stock action. News that Hwang's Archegos Capital Management was forced to liquidate $30 billion in holdings cast a long shadow over the week, shaking up several key sectors that the fund had a sizable stake in, including media and financials. While the Dow was able to shake off the news to notch its third-straight win, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 didn't fare nearly as well on Monday. By Tuesday, bond yields were back in the spotlight, and weighing heavily on Big Tech, specifically, after the closely watched 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level in nearly 15 months. 

The month of March (and 2021's first quarter) came to a close on Wednesday, and the tech-rich Nasdaq closed out both with a notable comeback, as several FAANG names roared back to life. This marked the index's fifth-consecutive monthly win, and its fourth-straight quarter ending in the black. The Dow and S&P 500 also logged monthly and quarterly wins. Meanwhile, Wall Street has been poring over President Joe Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. The spending plan has received a favorable response from traders so far, with all three major indexes looking to kick off the fresh month with sizable wins, as the S&P 500 tops the 4,000 level for the first time ever. 

Earnings Season Laggards Take Center Stage 

While the deluge of earnings pouring in for most of February and March has definitely slowed, several big names still trickled in this week, and investors responded in turn. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) kicked off the week with fiscal third-quarter profits that topped expectations, though the stock couldn't quite capitalize on the beat. Pet e-tailer Chewy (CHWY) had better luck following its fourth-quarter report, with no less than three analysts hiking their price targets. 

BlackBerry's (BB) earnings release had the opposite effect on analysts, earning the tech name several slashed price targets, as well as a downgrade to "hold" from Canaccord Genuity. We also dug into specialty retailer Zumiez's (ZUMZ) stock performance a few weeks after it notched its third-straight earnings beat. We also parsed through fellow retail name Conn's (CONN) financials ahead of its quarterly report, which came out yesterday, March 31. 

Analyst Opinions Moving Stocks This Week 

The brokerage bunch had plenty to say this week, to the benefit (or detriment) of many household names. Most of the coverage looked positive. Roku (ROKU) looked ready to bounce back after Tuesday's upgrade from Truist Securities. The analyst also raised its rating on Twitter (TWTR) to "buy" from "hold," capturing the attention of call traders. 

Yelp (YELP) and Applied Materials (AMAT) also enjoyed tailwinds following lofty analyst upgrades, while the latter surging to a fresh high following the bull note. Harley-Davidson (HOG) joined in on the fun, getting a boost from Baird, which turned bullish on the equity for the first time since 2016. 

Fed Minutes Headline First Full Week of April

Investors will come back from a long Easter weekend to plenty of economic data during the first full week of April. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting minutes will certainly garner attention. The earnings calendar will feature the likes of Conagra (CAG), Constellation Brands (STZ), JinkoSolar (JKS) and Levi Strauss (LEVI) will all make appearances in the earnings confessional. In the meantime, traders might want to keep an eye on the S&P 500's recent outperformance of the Nasdaq, and what that might mean for stocks moving forward. A focus toward small caps might be a good idea too, with Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone giving pointers on how investors can use these stocks to manage equity risk. 

The shares of CarMax, Inc (NYSE:KMX) are down 4% at $127.50 before the bell, after the car retailer posted fourth-quarter profits of $1.27 per share, which topped analysts forecasts. The firm's revenue came in line with estimates, and KMX announced that it would acquire the remaining stake in auto information company Edmunds that it did not previously own in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $404 million. 

CarMax stock has already started pulling away from its March 30 all-time peak of $136.54 during yesterday's session. In fact, the shares had been consolidating just below these highs for the better part of last month, though the 40-day has kept several pullback in check since February. For the year, KMX is up roughly 40%. 

Most analysts have been optimistic on KMX, with nine in coverage calling it a "buy" or better, compared to just two "hold" or worse ratings. Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target is just a 1.3% discount to last night's close. 

Option traders have been a bit more bullish than usual, too. This is per the equity's Schaeffer's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.46 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range, suggesting calls are being picked up at  a quicker than usual clip. 

KMX could still be an interesting post-earnings play, and its options are relatively affordable at the moment. Its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 44% sits higher than just 14% of readings from the past year, meaning options players are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations on the stock right now. 

With the uncertainty of stock market trading, we as investors are always looking for the latest and most accurate technical data analysis to help us maximize profit from the smallest risk possible. This week, I wanted to take a look at a popular sentiment indicator that might explain the current investor proclivity for optimism, while also offering a cautious eye to the future. Specifically, Investors Intelligence, the oldest provider of technical research, releases data on the percentage of bulls and bears that are currently trading, signaling the amount of optimism currently being funneled into the market. With data and insight from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, we were able to compare bull, bear, and correction data from 2005, to the most recent reading from Investors Intelligence.

Compared to each of their long-term averages, bulls are currently higher with a reading of 57.4% versus its 48% average, while bears are lower with a reading of 18.8% and an average of 24%. The bulls minus bears line remains above its 25% average, with a reading of 38.6%. To put this into perspective, we typically consider a reading above 40% a sign of extreme optimism. Also worth noting is that the poll has had a reading of over 50% with bulls for 44 straight weeks. This of course suggests a lot of optimism, and tracks with the broader-market growth we have seen in the last 12 months.

That being said, White then looked at past times when the poll showed over 50% bulls for 44 straight weeks. It has only happened one other time, in early 2004, and the market performed poorly going forward, dropping more than 3% within the next six months. However the market did rebound after this pullback, eventually showing a 5.8% gain over the next year. That time, the poll was above 50% bulls for 46 straight weeks before it again fell below 50%.

For the S&P 500 Index (SPX) specifically, the bulls-bears percentile rank from the Investors Intelligence poll rose to 38.6% within the last week, putting it in the 89th percentile of all readings since 1972. When in this high of a percentile, the index sees 355 returns, but all in the red one, two, four, and eight weeks out. In simpler terms, pent-up optimism tends to spill over, and contrarian traders should take actionable steps to hedge should they remain optimistic about long-term market viability. As it pertains to the current investing climate, the most recent reading could be an indication that we’re susceptible to a sharp pullback if all these bulls suddenly turn bearish.

Subscribers to Bernie Schaeffer's Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, March 28.

Investors will come back from a long Easter weekend to plenty of economic data during the first full week of April. Data on factory orders, consumer credit, the trade deficit, and job openings could potentially move markets throughout the week, while traders' focus will also be directed toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday. The earnings calendar, meanwhile, is nearly bare, though, Conagra (CAG), Constellation Brands (STZ), JinkoSolar (JKS) and Levi Strauss (LEVI) will all make appearances in the earnings confessional. 

Below is a list of key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All economic dates listed below are tentative and subject to change.

Monday, April 5 will kick off the week with plenty of economic data for investors to unpack, including the Markit services purchasing managers' index (PMI), the ISM non-manufacturing employment report for March, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, as well as factory orders for March.

On Tuesday, April 6 the latest job openings numbers will be due out. 

Wall Street will keep an eye on February's trade deficit data, as well as consumer credit  data on Wednesday, April 7. The FOMC meeting minutes will also be released that afternoon.

Another round of initial and continuing jobless claims will be released on Thursday, April 8.  

The week will come to a close on Friday, April 9, with the producer price index (PPI) and wholesale inventories on tap. 

Retail name Big Lots Inc (NYSE:BIG) has climbed up the charts for the better part of the year with support from the 20-day moving average guiding shares higher since breaking out past their autumn 2020 highs. The $63.84 level, which is six times BIG's March closing low, and the $62.50 level, which is home to its pre-earnings close, also held as support last Thursday. Big Lots stock's +50% year-to-date level was supportive last week, too, making now a good time to speculate on the security's next move with call options.

Big Lots options can be had a bargain right now, per the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 52%, which stands higher than just 2% of readings from the past year, implying option traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. Adding to this, BIG's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks at 91 out of a possible 100. This means the stock has tended to exceed these expectations -- a good thing for option buyers. Lastly, our recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 4.1 and will double in a 25.4% pop in the underlying equity.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this BIG commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

The shares of Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG) are up 7.3% at $40.29 this morning, following an upgrade from Baird to "outperform" from "neutral." This is the first time since 2016 the analyst has turned bullish on the stock, noting a promising shift in strategic direction and slimmer inventories. Meanwhile, Wedbush also chimed in, lifting its price target to $43 from $42. 

There's still plenty of room for analysts to follow Baird's lead, as the 12-month consensus price target of $38.25 is a nearly 5% discount to current levels. Plus, coming into today, nine of the 13 analysts in coverage still considered HOG a "hold."

Today's price action has HOG trading its highest level in nearly two months, closing its early February bear gap, and toppling recent pressure at its 80-day moving average. The equity sports an impressive 112.7% year-over-year lead, and is looking to close out the month of March with a solid 13% win. 

While short interest has been on the decline, a further unravelling could put even more wind at the stock's back. Short interest fell 8.8% in the last two reporting periods, though the 16.64 million shares sold short make up a solid 10.9% of HOG's available float, and would take almost eight days to cover at its average daily pace of trading. 

A shift in the options pits could also give HOG a boost. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Harley-Davidson stock sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.17, which stands higher than 79% of readings from the past 12 months. This implies puts are being picked up at a much quicker-than-usual clip. 

For those wanting to speculate on the equity's next move, options can be had at a relative bargain right now. This is per the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 46%, which sits in the very low fifth percentile of its annual range. In other words, options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations for the motorcycle manufacturer at the moment.