Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 2:47 PM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Options Recommendations
Online business support name Square Inc (NYSE:SQ) appears to be bouncing off support at the 200-day moving average. Highly correlated to Bitcoin (BTC), the stock has plenty of room to run as analysts are currently pessimistic on the cryptocurrency.

 

sq jun 16

There is space for increased optimism in the options pits as well. The security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.21 sits in the 83rd percentile of its annual range, meaning short-term options traders have been more put-biased than normal. The big weekly 220 call just expired, too, removing a layer of potential resistance. Furthermore, SQ's front-month gamma-weighted SOIR sits at a top-heavy 1.13, meaning near-the-money puts outweigh calls among options expiring in the standard July series.
 
Plus, Square stock could benefit from a short squeeze, as shorts may look to cover given SQ's technical strength lately. Shorts have been piling on at much lower price levels, and short interest represents 8.1% of the stock's available float, or over three days' worth of pent-up buying power.
 
Lastly, now looks like a good time to weigh in on SQ's next move with options. The stock is seeing attractively priced premiums at the moment, per Square stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 42%, which sits in just the 3rd percentile of its annual range. The equity has tended to exceed these volatility expectations during the past year as well, indicated by the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS), which stands at a high 98 out of 100. Our recommended call has a leverage ratio of 5.5, and will double in value on a rise of 18.4% in the underlying security.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this SQ commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 1:36 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) have been falling since their June 7 all-time high of $393.26. While down 0.4% today, last seen trading at $369.84, the shares sport an impressive 39.5% year-to-date lead. Plus, GS is flashing a historically bullish signal on the charts.  

More specifically, the equity just came within one standard deviation of its ascending 40-day moving average, after spending considerable time above it. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, nine similar signals have occurred in the past three years. Goldman Sachs stock enjoyed a positive return one month later in 67% of those cases, averaging a 4.2% gain. From its current perch, a comparable move would put GS above the $385 level and close to its aforementioned record peak.  

GS Chart June 16

Puts have been more popular than usual, too, leaving plenty of pessimism to be unwound in the options pits. This is per the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.72 sits in the highest percentile of its annual range, meaning short-term options traders have been more bearish than normal. 

What's more, GS options can be had for a bargain at the moment. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 26% sits in just the 10th percentile of its annual range, indicating options players are pricing in low volatility expectations right now. What's more, Goldman Sachs stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks at 80 out of 100, which implies the stock usually outperforms these volatility expectations. 

Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 1:06 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Analyst Update
So far, 53,000 calls and 10,000 puts have crossed the tape. The June 50 call is the most active today, followed by the 55 call in the same series.
Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 10:39 AM
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 10:38 AM
  • Analyst Update
Options traders are responding as well. In the first hour of trading, 65,000 puts and 64,000 calls have crossed the tape already, which is 12 times the intraday average.
Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 10:25 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Several analysts are chiming in on Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) this morning. Cowen and Company slashed its price target to $145 from $155, while Morgan Stanley lifted its price target to $185 from $172. Cowen cited weakening demand in China, and while Morgan Stanley also noted short-term headwinds from this dwindling demand, it said its long-term revenue, margin expansion, and earnings per share (EPS) growth story still look good. 

The equity remains flat amid all the analyst chatter, last seen up 0.2% at $130.25. The stock has been chopping lower on the charts since late January, when it hit an all-time high of $147.95. While the 200-day moving average briefly served as support on the charts, the equity breached this trendline earlier in the month, pressured lower by the 10-day moving average. In fact, the equity has settled lower during six of its last seven sessions, though it still sports a year-over-year lead of 31%. 

Analysts are generally optimistic on NKE. Of the 20 in coverage, 18 call it a "buy" or better. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $164.04 is a 26% premium to current levels. 

Lastly, the stock could see a short-term bounce soon, per its Relative Strength Index (RSI), which sits at 38. This indicates that the security is just on the cusp of being "oversold." 

Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 10:20 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 9:24 AM
  • Indicator of the Week
    
Published on Jun 16, 2021 at 7:45 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Today's Stock Market News & Events: 6/16/2021

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Today will bring building permits, housing starts, the import price index, and an update from the Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 

The following public companies are slated to release quarterly earnings reports today, June 16:

Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN -- $92.55) operates as a homebuilder primarily under the Lennar brand in the United States. Lennar will report its Q2 earnings of 2021 before the bell today.

The following public companies released quarterly earnings reports yesterday, June 15:

H&R Block Inc. (NYSE:HRB -- $25.52) provides assisted income tax return preparation, do-it-yourself (DIY) tax, and virtual tax preparation services and products to the general public. H&R Block reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $5.16 on revenue of $2.33 billion for the three months ended April 30.

La-Z-Boy Inc. (NYSE:LZB -- $42.49) manufactures, markets, imports, exports, distributes, and retails upholstery furniture products, accessories, and casegoods furniture products. La-Z-Boy reported earnings of $37.5 million, or 81 cents a share, in the fiscal fourth quarter, compared with $2.3 million, or 5 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted for one-time items, the company said it earned 87 cents a share.

Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL -- $15.50) provides products and services that address enterprise information technology environments. Oracle reported quarterly revenues of $11.23 billion, a growth of 8% from the prior year. Also, it surpassed the consensus estimate of $11.04 billion..

StepStone Group Inc. (NASDAQ:STEP -- $31.64) is an investment firm specializing in direct, fund of funds, secondary direct, and secondary indirect investments. StepStone Group reported a quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share of Class A common stock.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the usual initial and continuing jobless claims data are due out, as well as the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and leading economic indicators. All economic dates listed here are tentative and subject to change.

Published on Jun 15, 2021 at 3:02 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

 

 
Published on Jun 15, 2021 at 2:50 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity
So far today, 91,000 calls and 27,000 puts have crossed the tape, which is double what is typically seen at this point. Most popular by far is the June 7 call, followed by the 7.5 call in the same series, with new positions being opened at both. This indicates traders are speculating on additional upside for OCGN by the time contracts expire on Friday. 
Published on Jun 15, 2021 at 2:50 PM
  • Stocks On the Move

Stocks are extending their pullback this week, as the Fed meeting looms over Wall Street. Among the names making notable moves today are sports betting stock DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG), specialty retailer Petco Health and Wellness Company Inc (NASDAQ:WOOF), and crypto stock MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR). Here's a quick look at what's moving the shares of DKNG, WOOF, and MST.   

DraftKings Hit With Scathing Hindenburg Note

Hindenburg Research dropped a bombshell this morning, disclosing a short position on DKNG. In their article, the notorious short seller demonstrated extensive research that DraftKings "systematically skirted the law and taken elaborate steps to obfuscate its black market operations." In response, DraftKings stock is down 5.1% to trade at $48.03, and earlier traded as low as $44.65.

Since a March 22 record peak of $74.38, the Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) darling of 2020 has shed 20.7% this quarter alone now. Nevertheless, keep an eye on how retail traders respond to the Hindenburg report, with a healthy 10.9% of DKNG's total available float sold short.

Petco Stock Riding the Reddit Rollercoaster

The pet retailer with the delightful ticker was last seen down 10% to trade at $25.75. This comes after a 17.9% pop yesterday thanks to a flurry of interest from Reddit forum WallStreetBets. WOOF is up 15.7% in 2021 even after today's breather. 

With the stock on the short-sale restricted list today (SSR), options trading has exploded. With under two hours left in today's trading, over 105,000 contracts have changed hands, 10 times the expected intraday amount and and volume pacing for the 100th percentile of its annual range. Leading the charge is the June 30 call, where new positions are being opened.

MicroStrategy Doubles Down on Bitcoin

The shares of MicroStrategy are up 5.3% to trade at $629.33 at last check, after the software company filed last night to sell up to $1 billion in stock to buy more Bitcoin (BTC). The volatile cryptocurrency was last seen up 3.5% at $41,217. Despite today's uptrend, MSTR is running headfirst into its 80-day moving average, a trendline that hasn't been conquered on a closing basis since mid-April.

A short squeeze could help the stock push past this resistance. Short interest is up 12% in the two most recent reporting periods, and the 1.78 million shares sold short accounts for 23.4% of MSTR's total available float.

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