Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Aug 20, 2021 at 10:03 AM
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Aug 20, 2021 at 10:00 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of department store staple Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) are extending yesterday's post-earnings pop as the stock rakes in a bevy of bull notes. Analysts are responding to the firm's raised full-year revenue forecast, as well as top- and bottom-line beats for its second quarter. No less than six analysts lifted their price targets, including J.P. Morgan Securities, which also lifted its rating on the stock to "neutral" from "underweight."

There's room for more upgrades, too. The 12-month consensus price target of $21.42 is a 0.9% discount to last night's close, and heading into today, just one of the seven analysts in coverage called M a "strong buy," with the other six a "hold" or worse. 

Options traders have been more bearish than usual as well. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Macy's 10-day put/call volume ratio stands higher than 95% of readings from the past 12 months. 

An unwinding of some of this pessimism already looks to be underway, with a definite preference for calls. So far 489,000 calls and 182,000 puts have exchanged hands, which is 11 times the intraday average. The most popular position is the September 21 call, followed by the August 20 call, which expires later today. Positions are being opened  at both contracts. 

Macy's stock was last seen up 3% at $22.26, and hit a fresh two-year high right out of the gate. The security enjoyed a 19.6% pop during yesterday's trading, snapping a five-day losing streak and marking its biggest one-day jump since May 2020. Further down the charts, the security's 30-day moving average helped provide a springboard for the equity, and could serve as support going forward. M now sports a year-to-date lead of 92%. 

Published on Aug 20, 2021 at 9:41 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Six Cannabis Stocks With Breaking News This Week

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Welcome back to our weekly series, Schaeffer's Cannabis Stock News Update, where we recap what happened in the world of marijuana stocks and look ahead to how the cannabis industry continues to shape up in 2021.

Investor interest in the cannabis industry is growing at an explosive rate, and the leading players continue to break through legal barrier after legal barrier, especially in the United States. More than 40 U.S. states legalized recreational and/or medical marijuana by the end of 2020. Now, companies are starting to see the opportunity in cannabis cultivation, marketing, distribution, and technology.

Here is a quick roundup of major (and action-worthy!) cannabis stock news from this week:

🤑 On Monday, August 16, Village Farms International, Inc. (NASDAQ:VFF) announced that VFF has acquired 100% interest in Balanced Health Botanicals, a major CBD brand based in Colorado, in a transaction with a price tag of $75 million. This purchase provides VFF with access to the U.S. CBD market in the consumer products category. 

🏀 Sports Nutrition Inc., a sports hydration brand that is partially owned by Canopy Growth Corp (NASDAQ:CGC) announced a major partnership deal as the official sports drink of the Los Angeles Lakers. According to Tim Harris, the president of business operations for the Lakers, the organization plans to devote resources to providing the NBA players with performance-enhancing products.

🌎 "The investment we are announcing in MedMen securities today, one of the most recognized brands in the $80 billion U.S. cannabis market, is a critical step towards delivering on our objective as we work to enable Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) to lead the U.S. market when legalization allows," Tilray's CEO Irwin Simon said in a press release on Tuesday, August 17. TLRY announced a deal to purchase $165.8 million in convertible debt from U.S. rival MedMen Enterprises. The agreement could boost Tilray if U.S. regulations change, as Canada-based companies are not yet allowed to own U.S. weed businesses

📈 On Tuesday, August 17, Greenlane Holdings (NASDAQ:GNLN), a major player in the production and sales of cannabis accessories, released it Q2 of 2021 financial results. GNLN posted a revenue increase of 7.1% year-over-year. According to Greenlane's Chairman and CEO Aaron LoCascio, "Our focus on growing our portfolio of owned brands and driving strong performance from our existing brand portfolio, combined with our pending merger with KushCo, has positioned our business to be the leader in the ancillary cannabis space and to build strong, long-term value for both our customers, partners, employees, and shareholders."

🔥 Aurora Cannabis Inc (NASDAQ:ACB) had to evacuate Aurora Valley, one of its outdoor cannabis farms in Westwold, British Columbia, due to nearby wildfire activity. According to ACB officials, Aurora’s employees are unharmed and the evacuation did not impact company operations.

💻 On Wednesday, August 18, Akerna Corp (NASDAQ:KERN) went live with a brand new cannabis industry technology offering, Akerna Connect. KERN supports the cannabis industry with technology including enterprise software, compliance software, and enterprise resource planning (ERP) software. Akerna Connect is a platform that will provide cannabis dispensaries with the ability to offer clients online ordering, loyalty programs, and text messaging communications.

According to Akerna's CEO, Jessica Billingsley, "Akerna Connect allows dispensaries to convert more sales, increase customer engagement and remain competitive. This new product continues to bolster our portfolio of technologies built for the cannabis industry, and we are proud to offer the most comprehensive ERP system in the industry. Through our ecosystem, cannabis businesses can manage, strategize, report on, and plan every facet of their business and supply chain."
 
Published on Aug 20, 2021 at 9:31 AM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Bernie's Content

Late last month, Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research of Todd Salamone revisited the bears flocking to components of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). The exchange traded fund of the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) was declining, while put traders were gaining courage. Fast forward two weeks, and the same ratio discussed by Salamone is worth revisiting, albeit with a different lens and context.

The latest put/call ratio reading of the IWM shows that after hitting those six-month highs referred to above, it has declined, sharply, to roughly 0.351, per the chart below supplied by Schaeffer's Senior Market Strategist Chris Prybal {For reference, a 0.351 reading implies nearly three times as many calls bought-to-open as puts, over the previous ten trading days.} That sudden decline is interesting in its own right, yes, but much more capable minds such as Salamone are better fit to tackle the discrepancies.

Instead, let's focus on what exactly is composed of the IWM and small-caps. Per Newsweek and Bloomberg, the meme stocks that have shaken up the investing world in the last 18 months have become heavy hitters in the IWM/RUT. AMC Entertainment (AMC) is the ETFs largest holding. So while the small-cap sphere is far more encompassing than just Reddit darlings – the sector with the most exposure is healthcare. Does this mean there is a renewed run at meme stocks brewing, as put traders hit the exits?

COTW IWM

The chart below supplied by Prybal tests this theory. This put/call ratio is comprised of all the high-profile tickers that fit the meme profile. It's a veritable who's-who of champions from the Reddit forums; AMC Entertainment (AMC), GameStop (GME), Clover Health (CLOV), Palantir (PLTR), among others. As you can see, the ratio hit a short term peak of 0.5 on July 19 and has since turned lower to 0.352 upon Thursday's close.

You can also see there's not much correlation between the meme list and the Nasdaq-100 (NDX). Sometimes the two are rising in concert, like earlier in the summer. Other times, like mid-July, the two are running headfirst into each other. But what you can glean from the chart is the 0.3 area represents a floor that was tested back in April, and once again in late June to early July.

COTW Meme pc ratio

Both charts indicate IWM and meme put trading is on the quieter side. It's probably not a coincidence that at the same time these sentiment readings churn, the National Association of Investment Managers (NAAIM) exposure index is at its most elevated point since June.

So despite all of the hand-wringing about the delta variant, or bubbling inflation, investor optimism is running rampant. As the charts show, its especially with among small caps and meme stocks; two entities that could be construed as the catalysts behind this current market environment. In the case of an equity-based ETF like IWM, falling demand for put options could be the result of less demand for the shares among hedged players, who buy puts to offset their long equity exposure. And now certainly seems like an opportune time, considering IWM's 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) of 20.8% ranks in the 9th annual percentile, meaning short-term options premiums are pricing in relatively low expectations at the moment. As contrarians, that should give you pause.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, August 15.

Published on Aug 20, 2021 at 8:29 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Today's Stock Market News & Events: 8/20/2021

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Today no economic data is scheduled.

The following companies are slated to release quarterly earnings today, August 20:

Deere & Co. (NASDAQ:DE -- $358.98) manufactures and distributes various equipment worldwide. Deere will report its Q3 earnings of 2021 before the bell today.

Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE:FL -- $54.39) operates as an athletic footwear and apparel retailer. Foot Locker will report its Q2 earnings of 2021 before the bell today.

Ubiquiti Inc. (NYSE:UI -- $302.83) develops networking technology for service providers, enterprises, and consumers. Ubiquiti will report its Q3 earnings of 2021 before the bell today.

Looking ahead to next week, with the height of the earnings season just now behind us, there will still be more than enough economic data to unpack. More specifically, the Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is due out, in addition to new and existing home sales, personal income, and consumer goods data. Plus, initial and continuing jobless data remains on tap, as well as a gross domestic product (GDP) revision.

As for earnings, a few big names are yet to report, including Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), JD.Com (JD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Peloton (PTON), Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Urban Outfitters (URBN), and Williams-Sonoma (WSM).

All economic dates listed here are tentative and subject to change.

Published on Aug 19, 2021 at 3:18 PM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Earnings Preview
 
Published on Aug 19, 2021 at 3:10 PM
  • Earnings Preview

One of the biggest names scheduled to step into the earnings confessional next week is Slesforce.com (NYSE:CRM). The company is expected to report second-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, Aug. 25, but is already attracting analyst attention ahead of the event. Specifically, BofA Global Research raised the equity's price target to $300 from $285, which helped shares add 0.9% to trade at $ $253.41 this afternoon. Below, we will explore CRM's previous post-earnings activity and performance to determine what we can expect next.

Salesforce.com stock is now trading at its highest level since November. The shares have experienced their fair share of volatility over the past year, though the 60-day moving average has contained several of the equity's pullbacks since March. Year-over-year, CRM is up 23.5%.

CRM 60 Day

Over the last two years, the blue-chip stock has had a generally negative history of post-earnings reactions, finishing just three of these eight next-day sessions higher. However, it did post a 26% pop this time last year. This time around, options traders are pricing in a 7.5% post-earnings swing for the security, which is slightly higher than the 7.1% move CRM averaged after its last eight reports, regardless of direction. 

The security could benefit from a shift in the options pits, which lean bearish. This is per CRM'S Schaeffer's put/call volume ratio (SOIR), which sits higher than 86% of readings in its annual range. This indicates short-term traders have rarely been more put-biased.

Published on Aug 19, 2021 at 2:40 PM
Updated on Aug 19, 2021 at 2:40 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

Cybersecurity Name Sporting Affordable Options

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team
 
Published on Aug 19, 2021 at 12:49 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of DoorDash Inc (NYSE:DASH) are off 4.66% at $182.38 this afternoon, following earlier news that SoftBank is selling $2.2 billion worth of its stake in the company, via a block trade through Goldman Sachs (GS). The trade offered 11.4 million shares priced at $182.95, and is the latest in SoftBank's stock selling rampage, which totaled $14 billion last quarter. 

Options bulls are blasting DoorDash, with 11,000 puts across the tape so far -- double the intraday average -- compared to 7,324 calls. The two most popular are the August 180 and 185 puts, with positions being bought to open at the former. This means these investors are expecting even more downside for DASH by the time these contracts expire tomorrow, Aug. 20. 

Overall, calls have been outpacing puts. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), DASH sports a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.46. Regardless of where you stand on DASH, options look like a solid way to speculate on its next move. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 47% stands higher than only 2% of readings from the past year. This means options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations for the time being. 

The equity just came off a mixed earnings report. And while the security turned volatile that day it eventually settled with a win. The $195 level, however, looks to be acting as a layer of resistance on the charts. On the other hand, the 40-day moving average could help contain some of today's selloff. Year-to-date, DASH is up 28%. 

dash aug 19

Published on Aug 19, 2021 at 11:19 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) just made its earnings debut as a publically traded company, but it looks as though investors are brushing off a second-quarter profit beat, as well as a 131% year-over-year surge in revenue, after the company warned its growth could soon turn sluggish. The financial services name added that a slowdown in trading activity in the current quarter -- especially among retail traders -- could impact revenue, which got a massive boost in the second quarter thanks to a cryptocurrency frenzy. In particular, Dogecoin was a major contributor to HOOD's revenue growth.

Robinhood also said it's not planning on selling any news shares as a way to capitalize on its early August surge. CFO Jason Warnick added in an interview with Kate Rooney on CNBC's Squawk Box that it didn't resonate with him "to call Robinhood a meme stock," despite its close ties to the extremely popular (and volatile) phenomenon.

Options volume on Robinhood stock, which has already been neck-and-neck with much more established names, is running even higher today. So far, 78,000 calls and 50,000 puts have exchanged hands -- 1.5 times what's typically seen at this point. The most popular position in the August 45 put, followed by the 50 call in the same series. 

With the stock down 9.6% at $45.03 at last check, this suggests these traders are split on which direction HOOD will take by the time these contracts expire tomorrow. A closer look at the charts shows that while the stock is still trading above its first close at $34.82, it's now nearly halved from its Aug. 4 record high of $85, with additional pressure coming from the newly formed 10-day moving average.

Published on Aug 19, 2021 at 11:02 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Aug 19, 2021 at 10:23 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
Drilling down today's options activity, 25,000 calls and 11,000 puts have already crossed the tape, which is four times the amount that's typically seen at this point. 

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