Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 2:17 PM
  • Strategies and Concepts

Bet On Earnings Volatility With 2 Options Strategies

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Group

Earnings season may seem like a scary time to trade stocks given the heightened chance of a volatile post-earnings move. Options can often provide speculative players the ability to invest in the stock market, but with less capital on the line than buying or shorting shares outright.

While the purchase of straight calls and puts are an appealing choice for rookie traders, more seasoned players may want to try their hand at a long straddle or long strangle during earnings season -- which allows options traders to profit on a big move in the underlying equity, regardless of direction.

How to Initiate a Long Straddle

A long straddle is created when an options trader buys to open an at-the-money call and put with the same strike and expiration date. While the purchase of both legs increases the cost of the position, it also allows the trader to profit on a big move in either direction.

To see this strategy in action, imagine stock XYZ is trading near $20 ahead of its May 1 earnings report, and the shares have a history of swinging wildly after earnings. To initiate a long straddle on XYZ, an options trader would buy a May 20 call for $1.20 and a May 20 put for $0.70, creating an initial cash outlay of $190 per spread [($1.20 call premium + $0.70 put premium) * 100 shares].

Given that there are two legs to the trade, the two breakeven points are $18.10 (strike less the net debit) and $21.90 (strike plus the net debit), meaning the options trader will profit should the stock swing south of the lower rail or north of the upper rail within the options' lifetime. Profit is theoretically unlimited to the upside, while limited to $18.10 (put strike less net debit) on a move down to zero. Risk is capped at the initial cash outlay, should XYZ stay stagnant through expiration.

Why Play a Long Strangle

A long strangle is similar to the straddle, only the call and put have different strikes. By splitting the strikes, the cost of entry will theoretically be reduced, since the options will be out of the money. However, profiting requires a much bigger move by the stock, typically, regardless of direction.

Using the same example from above, with stock XYZ trading near $20 ahead of its upcoming earnings report, an options trader would buy to open a May 21 call for $0.60 and a May 19 put for $0.45, creating an initial net debit of $1.05 per pair of options. Accounting for 100 shares per contract, this equates to an initial cash outlay of $105 for the long strangle.

The upper breakeven level for the trade is $22.05 (call strike plus net debit), while the lower breakeven rail is $17.95 (put strike less net debit). As with the long straddle, profit on the strangle is theoretically unlimited to the upside, and capped at $17.95 to the downside. Should stock XYZ stay within the two strikes through expiration, the most the options trader stands to lose is the initial cash outlay.

25 Options Trading Ideas for This Earnings Season

Considering both of these strategies require a trader to pay "double premium" by purchasing both the call and the put, it's important to take into account implied volatility (IV) -- one of the main factors in determining an options' price. Low IV roughly translates to lower-cost options -- a boon to premium buyers -- while higher IV indicates relatively rich premiums, a benefit to option sellers.

Below is a list of 25 stocks complied by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, which filters stocks for liquid options that had earnings between this coming Monday and March expiration. These stocks have some of the highest Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) readings, meaning they have tended to make outsized moves on the charts in the past year, relative to what the options market has priced in.

Additionally, stocks with a low Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) percentile rank have near-term options that are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment -- an added bonus to premium buyers.

eduearningstablefeb13

*Earnings dates subject to change
Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 12:36 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

Weight-loss drugs have been popular over the past couple of years, and Hims & Hers Health Inc (NYSE:HIMS), Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO), and Viking Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:VKTX) are among the most recognized names in the industry. Below, we check in with these pharma giants to see how they are faring.

HIMS Nabs Fresh Record

HIMS is up 17.5% to trade at $54.50 at last glance, and earlier nabbed a record peak of $56.71 on its way to its best single-day percentage gain since November, while sporting a 438.7% year-over-year lead. The company aired an ad during this year's Super Bowl, and is gearing up to post fourth-quarter results after the close on Monday, Feb. 24. It's worth noting the shares have a negative history of post-earnings reactions, however, finishing five of the last eight next-day sessions lower.

NVO Approaches 52-Week Lows

NVO was last seen down 3.1% to trade at $79.29, despite news that its Ozempic drug efficacy in treating some marker of alcohol disorders, according to a new study. Shares have shed 42.3% in the last nine months, and are today pacing for a fifth-straight daily loss as they approach their Jan. 17, 52-week low of $78.17. What's more, the security has struggled with overhead pressure at the $90 level since late December.

VKTX Brushes Off Bullish Coverage

VKTX is down 2.1% to trade at $28.70 at last check, on track for its fifth loss over the last six sessions after hitting its lowest level in 12 months earlier. The equity is brushing off new coverage from Scotiabank, which doled out an "outperform" rating and set its price target at $102. Shares carry a 58.3% nine-month deficit, and shed 28.5% just this year. 

Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 12:03 PM
  • Midday Market Check

4 .

 

Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 11:38 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ:DLTR) stock has been in a persistent downtrend over the past 12 months, shedding 48.1% of its value in that time. The security has managed only two positive months over the last year, and in November, it reached its lowest price since March 2020. However, from a contrarian perspective, DLTR has recently pulled back to a historically bullish trendline, suggesting a potential reversal opportunity.

The security just came withing one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average, a level that has previously acted as support. According to Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, similar pullbacks occurred twice in the past three years, and both times, Dollar Tree stock posted an average one-month gain of 9.1%. If this historical trend repeats, a comparable move from its current price of $72.50 would position the stock above $79, a level it hasn’t seen since early September.

DLTR Chart February 132025

Analyst coverage remains largely neutral or bearish, with 17 out of 24 firms rating the equity a “hold” or worse. A shift in recommendations could act as a catalyst for a rally, particularly if investors begin to reevaluate their positions in the case of positive price action.

In the options pits, bearish sentiment appears elevated. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), DLTR's 10-day put/call volume ratio sits in the 72nd percentile of its annual range. This means options traders expect downside. Should the stock begin to rise, an unwinding of these bearish bets could accelerate gains.

Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Updated on Feb 13, 2025 at 10:50 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ:CSCO) reported a top- and bottom-line win for the fiscal second quarter, and announced an upbeat earnings and revenue outlook for 2025. Shares are up 2.7% at $64.23 at last glance, after earlier surging to a 24-year high of $66.50. The equity also attracted no fewer than eight price-target hikes in response, including one from Melius Research to $80 from $73.

CSCO sports a 35% nine-month lead and is breaking above resistance at the $63 region, which rejected last week's rally attempt. The stock is bouncing off support from its 20-day moving average, which came into place in late January, as it heads for its best day since November.

At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), CSCO's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 5.19 ranks higher than 96% of  annual readings. This suggests traders have been more bullish than usual.

Drilling down to today's options activity, 92,000 calls and 28,000 puts have already crossed the tape, which is 5 times the volume typically seen at this point. The most active contract is the March 65 call.

Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 10:31 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

Shares of Reddit Inc (NYSE:RDDT) and Deere & Co (NYSE:DE) are taking a hit after earnings, tumbling as investors react to their latest results.

Reddit stock was last seen 4.8% lower at $206.10, after the social media giant reported fourth-quarter user numbers that fell short of expectations. While daily active unique visitors surged 39% year-over-year to 101.7 million, the figure missed the StreetAccount consensus of 103.1 million. Despite the disappointment, Reddit still delivered a top- and bottom-line beat for the quarter. So far in 2025, RDDT has added 23.6%.

Meanwhile, Deere stock was 3.4% lower at $460.15 at last glance, brushing off better-than-expected earnings and revenue in its fiscal first-quarter report. Investors reacted to the agricultural machinery company's cautious outlook, as it signaled softer demand ahead. DE maintains an 8.3% year-to-date lead.

Both stocks are experiencing higher-than-usual options activity in response. Reddit stock has seen 11 times its average intraday volume, while Deere stock has been traded at five times its typical volume for this point in a session. For RDDT, the most popular contract is the February 175 put, with new positions opening, while DE's most active contract is the March 470 put. 

Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 10:30 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Software stock AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) is skyrocketing to record highs today, up 36.9% at $520.90 at last check, after the company's fourth-quarter results smashed estimates. Should these gains hold, APP will notch its fifth-straight post-earnings gain, which includes a 46.3% pop in November. Strong current-quarter revenue guidance and a handful of price-target hikes, including one from BofA Global Research to $580 from $375, are adding to the optimism as well. APP is up 771% since the start of 2024, with help from its artificial intelligence (AI) ad and search engine success. Looking to focus on ads, the outperforming tech name is selling its app business this quarter for an estimated $900 million. 

Over in the options pits, AppLovin has seen 50,000 calls and 33,000 puts exchanged so far, which is already 2.8 times its average daily options volume. The weekly 2/14 565-strike call is the most popular, with new positions being opened there. 

Trading platform Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) is up 17% at $65.40 at last glance, trading at its highest levels since August 2021. The company easily beat fourth-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, reporting $1.01 billion in revenue with help from the crypto buzz following President Trump's return to office. No fewer than eight analysts lifted their price targets after the event, including Bernstein to $105 from $51. The firm also called HOOD a "best idea" for 2025. Year-over-year, the equity is up 373%. 

HOOD has seen 256,000 calls and 95,000 puts cross the tape so far today -- eight times the overall options volume typically seen at this point. The weekly 2/14 65-strike call is the most active contract, where new positions are being opened. 

Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Updated on Feb 13, 2025 at 9:16 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 8:00 AM
  • Earnings Preview
  • Buzz Stocks

You’d have to look far and wide to find an area of Wall Street not rattled by tariffs or Trump trade. But some sectors are at least insulated, for now, from the coming storm. One stock to watch these week is sports betting giant DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG).

DraftKings reports fourth-quarter earnings after the close Thursday, Feb. 13. For a company stalled by profitability until only recently, DKNG has a stellar history of post-earnings moves. After the last eight reports, DraftKings has moved higher after earnings six times, with an average return of 8.6% over those last two years. This time around, options traders are anticipating a larger-than-usual, 12.9% shift, regardless of direction.

Per the American Gaming Association, for the third quarter, Americans legally wagered $30.3 billion on sports and generated $3.24 billion in quarterly revenue, up 42.4%. Despite a 20.8% year-to-date gain, DraftKings stock has pivoted around $42, per the chart below, in the last 12 months. However, the shares are now eyeing their highest close since early December. 

DKNG Stock Chart

Sports betting volume is cyclical around various seasons and always picks up around the Super Bowl. But even when the big game is over, quarterly revenue could be in a good spot until the summer. Basketball, golf, soccer, and baseball are all in the midst of their seasons and won’t wind down until June. March Madness, NBA playoffs, and the start of baseball are all flashpoints for bettors that could keep the tailwinds blowing for DKNG into the summer months.

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 4:24 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Feb 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Updated on Feb 12, 2025 at 1:35 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Wall Street has been keeping an eye on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) since President Donald Trump named CEO Elon Musk to co-lead his new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a taskforce aimed at reducing federal spending. Price updates dinged Tesla stock last month, and at last check they are down 0.9% to trade at $358.26 today  -- on track for their fourth-straight drop and fresh off their sixth weekly loss in seven. The good news is this pullback has TSLA testing a historically bullish trendline.

Tesla's pullback has placed its 80-day moving average, which is a historically bullish trendline. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the equity has come within striking distance of this moving average after a prolonged period above it (defined by White as 80% of the time over the past two months and eight of the last 10 trading days) five times over the last three years. The stock was higher one month later after 60% of these signals, averaging a 5.3% gain.

TSLA 80 Day

A shift in analyst sentiment could push the shares even higher, as 24 of of the 38 firms in question carry a tepid "hold" or worse rating. Additionally, the 12-month consensus target price of $334.54 is a already a 6.5% discount to current levels.

Options look like a solid strategy when weighing in on TSLA. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 48% that sits in the 22nd percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations.

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 1:18 PM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

Earnings season can be a double-edged sword. While some stocks are rallying today on strong results, we're looking at three -- Lyft Inc (NASDAQ:LYFT), Vertiv Holdings Co (NYSE:VRT), and Zillow Group Inc Class C (NASDAQ:Z) -- that are sinking after earnings.

Lyft Offers Weak Booking Guidance

Lyft stock was last seen 3.1% lower at $13.94, after fourth-quarter gross bookings of $4.28 billion missed the $4.32 billion estimate. The company’s first-quarter guidance of $4.05-$4.20 billion also fell short of analysts' $4.24 billion forecast, raising concerns about growth amid increasing competition. Since the start of 2025, LYFT is up 8.3%.

Lyft’s options pits are buzzing with activity, with 141,000 calls and 85,000 puts traded -- six times the intraday average. The weekly 2/14 13.5-strike call is seeing the most interest, with new positions opening there.

Vertiv's Strong Q4 Overshadowed by Gloomy Guidance

Vertiv stock was 7.8% lower at $113.63 at last glance, moving below its year-to-date breakeven mark despite beating fourth-quarter expectations. The company expects first-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) between $0.57 and $0.63, below the $0.63 analyst estimate. Its full-year EPS forecast between $3.50 and $3.60 also disappointed, with the midpoint below expectations.

VRT is also drawing heavy options action post-earnings, with 48,000 calls and 35,000 puts exchanged, or double its usual volume. The March 90 put is the most active contract, where traders are selling to open new positions.

Zillow's Weak Q1 Guidance Offsets Revenue Beat

Last seen 10.3% lower at $77.42, Zillow stock is falling after issuing disappointing first-quarter guidance, despite a Q4 revenue beat. The company expects first-quarter revenue between $575 and $590 million, below the $599.8 million analyst estimate, raising concerns about future growth in a sluggish housing market. Still, Z boasts a 4.6% year-to-date lead.

Z's typically quiet options market is seeing an uptick, with 14,000 calls and 13,000 puts traded -- 5 times the intraday average. The March 95 call is attracting the most attention.

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