The real estate sector emerged near the top of our internal Sector Scorecard, signaling this group has been outperforming amid relatively bearish expectations -- what we like to see as contrarians. What's more, the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) could enjoy some seasonal tailwinds, if recent history is any indicator, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) components Duke Realty Corp (NYSE:DRE) and Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE:MPW) stocks could be bargains right now.

IYR Tends to Shine in April

IYR has been among the best ETFs to own in the month of April, looking back 10 years. Per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the fund has ended the month higher 80% of the time, averaging a gain of 4.63%.

It's already been a banner year for IYR shares, which notched a fresh 12-year high of $87.84 earlier today. The ETF has rallied 17% already in 2019, with recent pullbacks contained by its 30-day moving average. Another 4.63% gain from IYR's current price of $87.69 would put the shares around $91.75 -- in territory not charted since early 2007, when the fund was exploring record highs.

Duke Realty Stock Flirts With New Highs

Currently, about 70% of real estate investment trusts (REITs) on our list are trading above their 80-day moving average, yet only 43% of covering analysts offer up "buy" ratings, per data from White. Plus, the average Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for the sector is a lofty 2.73 -- the highest of all sectors we follow, suggesting near-term options traders are pretty put-heavy right now.

Which brings us to DRE. The security is fresh off its own decade-plus high of $31.07, tagged earlier today, and the stock has added close to 20% year-to-date. Plus, Duke Realty has been among the best stocks to own in April, ending higher eight of the past 10 years, with an average gain of more than 10%. Another 10.26% rally from DRE's current price of $31.04 would put the shares around $34.22 -- in neighborhood the security hasn't seen since 2007.

While absolute options volume runs light on Duke Realty, short-term options traders are more put-heavy than usual. The equity's SOIR of 1.72 is in the 84th percentile of its annual range, pointing to a bigger-than-normal put bias among open interest expiring within three months. An exodus of option bears could be a boon for DRE.

MPW Options Are Attractive

Among the other IYR components on our radar is Medical Properties Trust. The REIT just touched an all-time high of $18.92 today, after recently barreling north of resistance in the $18.50-$18.60 region. What's more, now could be an opportune time to roll the dice on higher highs for MPW.

Not only are the shares flirting with new highs, but their near-term options are attractively priced. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 18.1% is higher than just 19.3% of all other readings from the past year, suggesting short-term options are pricing in relatively modest volatility expectations for MPW.

Since 2008, there have been just two other times when Medical Properties shares were near an annual high while simultaneously sporting an SVI in the bottom 20% of its annual range. The REIT was higher one month later both times, and averaged a gain of 7.5% over the subsequent four weeks. A similar pop would put MPW north of $20 for the first time ever.

In addition, despite MPW's outperformance in 2019, only 25% of analysts consider it worthy of a "buy" or better rating. This leaves the door wide open for potential upgrades to lure more buyers to the table.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) today announced it's launching its highly anticipated 5G service in Chicago and Minneapolis. In the press release, the company says customers can expect download speeds of 450 Mbps, with speeds ranging as high as 1 Gbps. To utilize the service, users will need to add a Verizon 5G moto mod to their cell phone. As discussed on a recent Schaeffer's podcast, 5G technology is set to play a huge role in streaming video games. Meanwhile, today's launch has attracted VZ call traders, who may be speculating on more tailwinds in the days and weeks ahead.

So far today, more than 35,000 calls have traded, dwarfing the 4,300 puts traded and topping the average daily volume. Taking an even broader view, today's call volume ranks in the 95th annual percentile. Many short-term calls are seeing heavy trading, but most popular is the weekly 4/5 59-strike call, where data points to buy-to-open activity. If that's the case, these traders are expecting more upside from Verizon by week's end, when the contracts expire.

VZ calls were popular even before today, accounting for the top five open interest positions, and at the top spot is the front-month April 60 call. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows that 2.51 calls were bought to open for every put in the last two weeks, as well.

On the charts, the Dow component has been pushing higher since bottoming in the familiar $52-$53 area in late January, hovering near its November high of $61.58 thanks to ongoing support from the 20-day moving average. At last check, the shares were trading 0.6% higher at $58.90, putting its one-year gain at 24%.

The shares of Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY) are down 2.8% to trade at $84.30, after RBC downgraded the biotech name to "sector perform" from "outperform." The analyst in coverage doesn't see any more opportunities for near-term growth, and that its underappreciated value is already baked in. In the wake of the downgrade, INCY options bears have come out of the woodwork. 

More specifically, over 1,000 INCY put options have changed hands today -- four times the expected intraday amount, and double the number of calls traded. There's notable activity at the June 80 put, where it appears new positions are being opened. If this is the case, options traders are banking on an extended pullback from Incyte stock in the coming months.

This runs converse to the trend in recent weeks. Amid limited absolute volume, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows speculative players have bought to open 1,071 calls in the last 10 sessions, compared to just 40 puts. Plus, the resulting 10-day call/put volume ratio ranks 2 percentage points from an annual high, showing unusual demand for long calls over puts in recent weeks.

While Incyte stock nabbed an annual high of $88.83 on March 4, the $88 level has served as stiff resistance in 2019. Today's drop means INCY could snap its weekly winning streak at three, with the pullback now testing the 40-day moving average. However, the security is vulnerable to more downgrades. Exactly two-thirds of the brokerages in coverage rate INCY a "buy" or better, with zero "sells" on the books.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) are eyeing a fifth straight gain, thanks to semiconductor strength. Among individual stocks making notable moves are alternative energy name Ocean Power Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:OPTT), money transfer firm MoneyGram International Inc. (NASDAQ:MGI), and Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA). Here's a quick roundup of what's moving the shares of OPTT, MGI, and BABA.

Ocean Power Technologies Stock Set for Best Day in Years

Ocean Power Technologies stock has sailed to the top of the Nasdaq -- up 119.8% at $10.99, pacing for its best day since June 1, 2016 -- on news the company has inked a deal with a leading oil and gas operator to use its PowerBuoy system, which converts ocean waves into electricity. The shares are now set for their highest close since Nov. 9, and poised to end atop their 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2017.

MoneyGram Stock Pops on Rare Upgrade

Northland Capital upgraded MoneyGram to "outperform" from "market perform," and lifted its price target to $5.50 -- a 153% premium to yesterday's close at $2.17. The brokerage firm cited an attractive risk/reward setup, and called MGI stock "cheap" compared to its sector peers. In reaction, MGI stock is up 7.8% at $2.34.

This bullish note is relatively rare for a stock that's still down almost 72% year-over-year. At last night's close, all six covering analysts maintained a "hold" or worse rating. MGI has been a popular target for shorts, too, with short interest accounting for a healthy 5.4% of the equity's available float.

Alibaba Drops on Altaba Stake Sale

Alibaba stock was down as much as 2.7% earlier, but has since pared its loss to 1.6% to trade at $178.75. The Chinese stock is reacting to reports Altaba (AABA) is selling its 11% BABA stake as part of a board-approved liquidation plan -- a move Jefferies said could create a "near-term sentiment overhang on Alibaba's shares." The brokerage firm reiterated its "buy" rating, though, echoing the sentiment of 95% of covering analysts.

BABA options traders have been upbeat, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.60 ranks in the 90th annual percentile, indicating calls have been bought to open over puts at an accelerated clip.

Today, Alibaba calls are running at more than two times the average intraday pace, with about 121,000 contracts on the tape. The weekly 4/5 180-strike and 182.50-strike calls are most active, and data indicates new positions are being initiated here.

The shares of Sangamo Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SGMO) are on fire, after the California-based biotech reported positive data in a phase 1/2 study for its gene therapy hemophilia treatment that's being developed with Pfizer (PFE). The company also unveiled upbeat data for an early stage study for a gene therapy being developed with Sanofi (SNY).

In reaction, SGMO stock is trading up 28.2% at $12.22, pacing for its best day since May 11, 2017, when it gained 60.9%. Options traders are in overdrive, too, with 9,875 calls and 4,811 puts on the tape so far -- 14 times what's typically seen at this point. The April 10 call is most active, but it looks like speculators may be taking profits on the now in-the-money options.

Elsewhere, new positions are being initiated at the April 15 call, though there appears to be some sell-to-open activity occurring. If this is the case, call writers expect $15 to serve as a short-term ceiling through front-month options expiration at the close on Thursday, April 18.

Short sellers are likely feeling the heat right now. The 13.6 million SGMO shares currently sold short represents 13.4% of the stock's available float, or 5.3 times the average daily pace of trading. As such, some of today's upside could be part of a short squeeze.

Heading into today's trading, Sangamo Therapeutics stock had been chopping lower over the past 12 months, with its 200-day moving average keeping a tight lid on the equity. This trendline is rearing its ugly head as resistance today, too, with the shares last seen trading below it after a brief pop above it for the first time since early September.

Apple supplier Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) touched an all-time high of $307.35 earlier today before turning lower. However, the semiconductor concern could have more gas in the tank, if history is any indicator, and speculators may want to consider buying short-term AVGO calls.

Broadcom shares gapped higher on March 15 after the company's strong earnings showing. Since then, AVGO stock has chugged even higher on the charts, and has rallied more than 55% since its July 12 low under $200. At last check, the equity has erased its early intraday gains, down 0.7% at $303.55.

First off, seasonality is on AVGO's side. The security has emerged as one of the best stocks to own in the second quarter, averaging a 5.27% gain over the past 10 years, per recent data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

Meanwhile, not only is AVGO flirting with all-time highs, but its short-term options are inexpensive following the post-earnings volatility crush. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 23% is higher than just 6% of all other readings from the past year, suggesting muted volatility expectations are being priced into near-term options.

Since 2008, there have been just four other times when Broadcom stock was within striking distance of a new high while simultaneously sporting an SVI in the bottom 20% of its annual range. AVGO was higher one month after each of those signals, averaging a gain of nearly 5%. Traders who believe past is prologue may want to consider scooping up near-term calls to speculate on higher highs for the shares.

Meanwhile, there's still room on the bullish bandwagon, even though AVGO has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by a healthy margin in the past three months. The consensus 12-month price target among analysts sits at just $311.41 -- a stone's throw from current levels -- leaving the door wide open for price-target hikes to lure more buyers to the table. Today, in fact, KeyBanc upped its AVGO target to $335.

An exodus of option bears could also be a boon for the Apple supplier. While the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.93 indicates that call open interest outnumbers put open interest among options expiring within three months, this ratio registers in the 90th percentile of its annual range. In simpler terms, short-term options traders are currently more put-heavy than usual.

E-commerce name Shopify Inc (NYSE:SHOP) is trading down 1.9% at $202.32 this afternoon, lower on reports that Microsoft (MSFT) is considering creating a competitor. However, SHOP stock may be worth betting on, if history is any indicator.

On the charts, SHOP has added 65% since this time last year, and just yesterday touched a fresh record high of $210.10. The 20-day moving average has been supportive for the shares since the end of February, and the round-number $200 level -- where the equity landed after a mid-March bull gap -- could also serve as a floor. 

Despite its quest for record highs, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows Shopify stock with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.13, ranking in the 71st percentile of its annual range. This suggests that puts have been purchased over calls at a faster-than-usual clip during the past two weeks of trading. An exodus of option bears could be a tailwind for SHOP.

Digging deeper, Shopify's short-term option premiums look relatively inexpensive at the moment. This is per the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 39%, which stands in the low 7th percentile of its annual range. In other words, near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.

Since 2008, there have been six other times SHOP shares were within 2% of a 52-week high and simultaneously sported an SVI in the bottom 20% of its annual range. After those signals, the stock was higher one month later 83% of the time, averaging an impressive gain of 9.84%, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Another surge of this kind would put the shares near $222 -- another record high.

Deutsche Bank analysts this morning released a note on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) that's getting a lot of attention on Wall Street, lifting the shares of the social media giant and sparking heavy options trading. The brokerage firm wrote that FB could see a $10 billion increase in sales for the fiscal year 2021 thanks to its new focus on shopping for Instagram users. Deutsche thinks that a strong launch of "Checkout with Instagram" -- which hit the public two weeks ago -- could also help the company's flagship platform, particularly the growing Facebook Marketplace feature. Overall, the analysts reaffirmed their "buy" rating and $200 price target, along with the view that FB shares are their top pick among the largest internet stocks.

Options volume for Facebook has shot higher in response to the stock's 3% rise today. The number of calls and puts traded has already topped the daily average, and many weekly options are seeing new positions being opened. The two most popular contracts today are the weekly 4/5 172.50- and 175-strike calls, and all available data suggests traders are buying the options to bet on more upside for FB stock by week's end, when the weeklies expire. The weekly 4/5 170-strike put has also seen notable trading.

This penchant for picking up short-term calls has seen an increase in popularity in recent weeks, but a broader view shows speculators are actually less call-skewed than normal. By the numbers, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.92 ranks in the 99th annual percentile, showing that this near parity in open interest for calls and puts that expire within three months is extremely rare. 

Turning back to the analyst community, most are still bullish on Facebook stock, but more and more have spoken about the risks of regulation. At last check, the equity was set to close today atop $174, which would be its highest finish since August, while its year-to-date return checks in at almost 33%.

 

While the broader U.S. stock market struggles for direction, a number of individual stocks are making notable moves, including biopharmaceutical firm ADMA Biologics Inc (NASDAQ:ADMA), travel name Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL), and supermarket chain Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (NASDAQ:SFM). Here's a quick look at what's moving the shares of ADMA, DAL, and SFM.

ADMA Biologics Set for Best Day Ever

The shares of ADMA Biologics are near the top of the Nasdaq -- up 33.2% to trade at $5.42 -- after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the company's immune deficiency treatment, ASCENIV, with ADMA projecting a commercial launch in the second half of this year. Additionally, Oppenheimer boosted its price target to a Street-high $16, calling the approval a major milestone for ADMA. 

The stock is pacing toward its best day ever, and options trading is accelerated. More specifically, 3,693 calls and 1,940 puts are on the tape -- 14 times the average intraday amount, and a new annual high. The April 7.50 call is most active, and it looks like new positions are being initiated here.

Delta Stock Eyes Sixth Straight Win

Delta Air Lines stock is headed toward a sixth straight win, up 7% at $55.82. Ahead of its earnings report, due before the open next Wednesday, April 10, the air carrier projected first-quarter adjusted profit above the consensus estimate, and said revenue passenger and average seat miles were both up in March. A price-target hike to $67 from $62 is only fanning the bullish flames.

There's room for more upbeat analyst notes, should the shares add to their 11.5% year-to-date gain. While four analysts still maintain a tepid "hold" recommendation, the average 12-month DAL price target of $62.95 is a tame 13.1% premium to current levels.

Sprouts Shorts Keep Control

Sprouts Farmers Market shares are trading down 2.8% at $21.06, following news Amazon (AMZN) is cutting prices at Whole Foods. This negative price action is just part of a longer-term trend, with SFM stock off 28.9% from its Sept. 10 two-year high of $29.67.

Short sellers have been cashing out amid this slide. Short interest is down almost 20% from late December. However, bears are still firmly in control, considering the 12.9 million SFM shares sold short represents 10.8% of the stock's available float.

A couple months ago, I wrote about analyst buy, sell, and hold recommendations on S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks. After getting it wrong for a couple years as stocks rose, they finally started suggesting more buys over the past year. This week I’m looking at the same data but I’m comparing the data on large-cap S&P 500 Index stocks to how analysts view small-cap stocks as well. I think the findings are interesting.

The blue line in the chart below is what I talked about a couple months ago. It’s the percentage of analyst buy recommendations looking at stocks in the S&P 500 . The green line is similar data, but it looks at small-cap stocks in the S&P 600 Index (SPCY). Analysts have always tended to favor large-cap stocks but the spread between those two lines is getting wider.

This next chart shows the S&P 500 along with the spread between the analyst percent of buys for large caps and small caps. The larger the spread, the more analysts are favoring large-cap stocks. Note that in 2007, near the end of a multi-year bull market, the spread hit a low of nearly zero percent, meaning analysts were just as likely to recommend a small-cap stock as a large-cap stock. When the financial crisis hit, the spread spiked to the highest level on the chart.

This makes sense to me, since as analysts are more bullish on the market, they’ll be more likely to suggest a small-cap stock. The more confident that they are that stocks will rise, the more likely they are to suggest a small-cap, high-beta stock since those stocks will be expected to gain more in a rising market. When analysts are pessimistic, they’ll favor more defensive, low-beta, large-cap stocks.

Using the spread as a proxy for sentiment, the chart shows analysts are getting more bearish as stocks continue to move higher. Based on our contrarian philosophy, this is a bullish sign for stocks.

Shares of iQIYI Inc (NASDAQ:IQ) are up 0.4% to trade at $24.50 this morning, after the Chinese video streaming service inked a deal to provide in-vehicle entertainment for Ford Motor (F) in its new Sync+ system. The feature will be rolled out in Ford and Lincoln models in China later this year.

On the charts, iQiyi stock has added 70% since its Jan. 2 bottom at $14.35, thanks in part to upbeat U.S.-China trade developments. The shares were rejected by the $28 level last month, but the subsequent pullback was cushioned by their 50-day moving average. 

More short covering could drive the shares higher. Short interest fell 3.6% in the most recent reporting period, yet the 48.46 million shares still sold short represents a hefty 15.9% of IQ's total available float. At the security's average daily trading volume, it would take shorts more than four days to buy back their bearish bets.

Bull notes could also keep the wind at IQ's back. While six of the 15 analysts covering IQ stock maintain a "hold" or "strong sell" recommendation on the equity, its consensus 12-month price target of $27.16 is only an 11% premium to its current perch.

Meanwhile, IQ short-term options premiums look relatively inexpensive at the moment. This is per the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 48%, which stands in the low 3rd percentile of its annual range. In other words, near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.

It's another volatile earnings reaction for GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME), with the shares down 7.8% at $9.31. The stock is reacting to the video game retailer's fourth-quarter revenue miss, while the company also warned of a current-quarter loss on weakening sales and said it would not provide a full-year forecast. This is offsetting a better-than-expected adjusted profit of $1.60 in the fourth quarter.

Bearish analyst notes have already started flooding in, with Credit Suisse and Wedbush lowering their GME price targets to $10 and $12, respectively. The majority of analysts were already skeptical of GameStop ahead of last night's earnings event, with six of seven in coverage maintaining a "hold" or worse recommendation. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $11 was just an 8.9% premium to last night's close at $10.10.

Put volume is running hot out of the gate, too, with 12,000 contracts traded already -- already more than the average 10,000 contracts that typically trade in a single session. Most active are the weekly 4/5 9- and 10-strike puts, where almost 7,100 contracts have been exchanged, though it's not clear if these now in-the-money strikes are being opened or closed.

Today's downside move is part of a larger trend for embattled GME stock, which hit a then 14-year low in yesterday's trading. Earlier, the shares tagged $8.82 -- their lowest mark since November 2004 -- and have now shed almost 43% since their mid-January peak at $16.90.