Published on Jun 6, 2019 at 9:58 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

While Morgan Stanley dished out an upgrade to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Barclays doled out bear notes to its sector peers, downgrading Apple supplier Qorvo Inc (NASDAQ:QRVO) to "equal-weight" from "overweight" and trimming its price target to $60 from $70. The analyst in coverage warned of further trade war escalation, and a potential response out of China to any Huawai uncertainty to end with an Apple ban. 

At last check, Qorvo stock was down 1.4% to trade at $62.54. Huawei headwinds resulted in a 19.1% drop in May, its worst month since January 2016. A subsequent rally was turned away at its 20-day moving average, and QRVO now is clinging to its year-to-date breakeven level. 

Analyst sentiment is pretty evenly skewed. Of the 18 brokerages in coverage, 10 rate it a "hold" or "sell." However, the stock's consensus 12-month price target of $73.85 is a 16% premium to last night's closing perch at $63.44.

In the options pits, puts are clearly favored. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.60 ranks in the 95th annual percentile.

Echoing this, the security sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.68, indicating that put open interest easily surpasses call open interest among options expiring within the next three months. This SOIR ranks in the 89th percentile of its annual range, suggesting short-term options traders have rarely been more put-biased in the past year.

Published on Jun 6, 2019 at 10:36 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Analysts at Goldman Sachs weighed in with opposing views on airline names United Continental Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UAL) and Spirit Airlines Incorporated (NYSE:SAVE). Let's take a look at how shares of UAL and SAVE are trading in response.

UAL was upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" at the brokerage firm, while the analyst maintained its $108 price target. This aligns Goldman with the general opinion on the Street, where 11 of 15 analysts recommend buying the stock. Moreover, the average 12-month price target of $104.76 represents a roughly 25% premium to the current price of $83.24.

United Continental's chart is quite interesting, as the shares have bounced from the $78 area on multiple occasions in the past year, and today it's testing the 50-day moving average. Recent options traders will be hoping this closely watched trendline acts as resistance, since put buying has been popular. Specifically, the 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands at 1.22 and ranks in the 84th annual percentile.

SAVE stock, meanwhile, was cut to "neutral" from "buy" and its price target was cut to $60 from $69. As such, the shares have fallen 0.7% to $50.10. More broadly, most analysts are bullish on the discount airline name, with nine of 12 handing out "strong buy" recommendations.

As for options activity, near-term speculators are heavily call-skewed, based on the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.28, which sits in the 1st annual percentile. This is due in part to big open interest at the June 52.50 and 55 calls.

 

Published on Jun 6, 2019 at 12:32 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
  • Quantitative Analysis

Stifel just initiated coverage on the marijuana producer Canopy Growth Corp (NYSE:CGC) this morning, calling the stock a "buy" and starting with a $47.77 price target -- a nearly 20% premium to where the stock's current perch of $40.78. The analyst said Canopy is a leader in the relatively new pot industry, calling the Canadian cannabis concern the most investable in the space.

Since touching a six-month high of $52.74 in late April, the shares of CGC have cooled off a bit, recently dipping beneath the $39 region for the first time since January, earlier this week. While pressure at the 160-day moving average has kept a lid on any real attempts to rebound off this six-month bottom, the stock's pullback has put it in line with a historically bullish signal, which could lend itself to more upside on the charts. 

Specifically, CGC just came within one standard deviation of its 52-week moving average after a lengthy period above the trendline. According to data from Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, CGC has run into this signal three other times, finishing higher each time, and averaging a 31.9% positive return. From where it currently sits, a similar move would put the security at $53.79 -- right atop its April peak. 

CGC June 6

Stifel's coverage falls in line with the general sentiment surrounding the stock, with nine of the 12 analysts in coverage handing out "buy" or better recommendations prior to today. Plus, the consensus 12-month target price of $57.30 sits at a level CGC hasn't touched since its all-time high last October. 

Canopy's recent dip has short interest ramping up, with a 9.5% spike to an all time high of 28 million shares sold short during the past month. These shares represent a 13.8% of the stock's available float, and would take nearly a week to buy back, at CGC's average pace of trading. This leaves plenty of potential for a short squeeze to put wind at the security's back. 

Now might be the time to speculate on CGC's next move higher with options. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 56% stands higher than only 20% of all other readings from the past year. This means that near-term option traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations. 

 

Published on Jun 6, 2019 at 3:13 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
  • Intraday Option Activity

Flex Ltd (NASDAQ:FLEX) is seeing accelerated options trading today, as the stock moves higher on a new bull note. With about an hour left in the session, around 7,300 calls and 6,750 puts have changed hands on FLEX, three times what's typically seen at this point, and volume pacing in the elevated 98th annual percentile.

Most of the action has centered at the January 2020 8-strike put and 10-strike call, where it looks like one trader may have initiated a long strangle for an initial net debit of $1.62 per pair of contracts, or $405,000 (2,500 spreads * net debit * 100 shares per contract). The speculator will make money on a breakout above $11.62 (call strike plus net debit) or a plunge below $6.38 (put strike less net debit) by January options expiration.

Widening the sentiment scope, speculators have targeted long calls over puts at a quicker-than-usual clip in Flex's options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 7.66 ranks in the 73rd annual percentile.

At last check, FLEX stock was seen trading up 3% at $9.63, after Goldman Sachs upgraded the electronics manufacturing name to "buy" from "neutral." The shares are running out of steam near $9.85, though, which coincides with their 20-day and 120-day trendlines, as well as a 50% Fibonacci retracement of their late-December low at $7.16 to their May 1 high at $12.54.

 flex stock daily price chart on june 6

Published on Jun 7, 2019 at 9:41 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Pharmaceutical name TherapeuticsMD Inc (NASDAQ:TXMD) is up 2.2% at $3.29, after the company shared that it has entered an agreement to commercialize its two women's menopausal drugs, Bijuva and Imvexxy, outside the U.S. The deal will bring in €14 million up front, and another €29.5 million following sales, met milestones, and royalties. The only analyst to weigh in so far has been Cantor Fitzgerald, which, while keeping hold of its "overweight" rating and $27 price target, said they "believe the non-dilutive upfront capital this agreement provides will help TXMD fund its U.S. product launches."

TXMD has shed 55% over the past 12 months, but following today's surge, is eyeing its first close above the 20-day moving average since mid-May. The shares recently turned higher after touching a bottom of $2.93 last Wednesday, May 29, and are now pacing toward their sixth straight close without a decline.

Overall, six of the seven analysts following ThereapeuticsMD stock sport a "strong buy" rating, with not a single "sell" in sight. This optimistic sentiment is echoed within the stock's average 12-month price target of $15.83 -- an unbelievable 393% premium to Thursday's close of $3.21.

Lastly, short interest has increased 8.6% during the past two reporting periods, and now accounts for 42.4% of the stock's float. In other words, it would take shorts nearly six weeks to cover their bearish bets, based on average daily trading volumes.

Published on Jun 7, 2019 at 10:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Zoom Video Communications Inc (NASDAQ:ZM) stock has shot up 19.4% to trade at $94.82, and earlier nabbed a record high of $98.89, after the remote conferencing services specialist took its first turn in the earnings confessional as a publicly traded company. For the first quarter, ZM recorded a surprise profit of 3 cents per share, while revenue more than doubled year-over-year to a stronger-than-anticipated $122 million. Zoom Video also gave better-than-expected current-quarter and full-year guidance.

No fewer than three price-target hikes have come down the pike, including one to $90 from $80 at Credit Suisse. Plus, Morgan Stanley said Zoom Phone traction and an increasing customer base create a strong growth pipeline for the company, while Rosenblatt Securities commented on Zoom Video's "highly differentiated and disruptive product."

Analysts have been skeptical of the stock that's been red-hot since its mid-April debut. Options traders, on the other hand, have taken a bullish stance toward the security, buying to open 1.43 calls for each put at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) over the last 10 days. Data shows the June 90 call saw the biggest increase in open interest over this time frame, and most of the action was at the hands of buyers.

On the charts, Zoom Video Communications stock opened for trading at $65 on April 18, well above the company's initial public offering (IPO) price of $36. The equity topped out at a previous high of $91.46 on May 20, before pulling back to test support at its recently formed 30-day moving average. Thanks to today's pop, the shares are on track for back-to-back weekly wins.

Published on Jun 10, 2019 at 10:02 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Molson Coors Brewing Co (NYSE:TAP) is down 3.2% at $55.14, after Credit Suisse initiated coverage on the stock own with an "underperform" rating and a $50 price target -- a discount to last Friday's close at $56.97. The brokerage firm said the beer maker faces "significant hurdles in overcoming its portfolio exposure," and that there's "no clear path to stabilization."

Analysts have been mixed toward the drink specialist, which has shed almost 13% since its late-April peak at $64.32. At last Friday's close, six of the 12 analysts covering TAP stock maintained a "strong buy" recommendation, compared to five "holds," and one "sell." Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target of $66.56 represents a 19.7% premium to current trading levels.

Options traders, on the other hand, have shown an unusual bullish bias toward the stock in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Molson Coors' 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.32 ranks in the 70th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Data from Trade-Alert shows the weekly 6/28 56.50-strike call has seen the biggest increase in open interest over this two-week time frame, with those who bought to open the options betting the stock will settle the month above $56.50. Looking closer at the charts, the stock is now testing its year-to-date breakeven mark at $56.16, with recent resistance emerging at its descending 20-day moving average, currently located at $57.49.

Published on Jun 10, 2019 at 11:10 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Two stocks that received notable analyst attention this morning were chipmaker Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI) and real estate name Redfin Corp (NASDAQ:RDFN). Let's take a quick look at the coverage on ADI and RDFN shares. 

ADI stock is trading up 4.9% at $105.66, after Goldman Sachs upgraded the security to "buy" from "sell," and moved its price target up to $114 from $101. This price action has the shares sharply above recent resistance from the 20-day moving average, bouncing from a trendline connecting its lows since October. 

As for sentiment, a slim majority of analysts have bullish opinions on Analog Devices, while options data also points to an upbeat view. Specifically, peak open interest rests at the June 115 call. From a broader view, however, call open interest right now stands in just the 31st annual percentile. 

Turning to Redfin, the stock has also popped above its 20-day moving average, trading up 7.1% at $18.05, following an upgrade to "overweight" from "underweight" at Stephens, which lifted its price target to $23 from $18. The bullish view actually goes against that of the Street, where just four of 14 brokerage firms recommend buying the shares. 

Pessimism is seen elsewhere, as well, with 15.62 million shares dedicated to short interest. This accounts for 22.2% of the equity's float, or 13.4 times the average daily trading volume. Taking a step back, RDFN stock is now testing the site of its early May bear gap. 

Published on Jun 11, 2019 at 10:15 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) was hit hard last week as reports swirled throughout the tech sector about potential federal investigations. However, an analyst note this morning suggested regulatory concerns are already priced into the stock, and are overshadowing the company's growth potential. This came from Moffett Nathanson, which upgraded FB shares to "buy" and kept its $210 price target in place.

Meanwhile, options traders have mostly kept a bullish view, as well, with call buying essentially doubling put buying during the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Zeroing in on Monday's trading, calls were unusually popular, driven by demand for the weekly 6/14 180-strike call.

It looks as though traders bought to open the positions, hoping to profit on a run higher in Facebook stock by the end of this week, when the contracts expire. However, there's already been heavy trading at this strike this morning, so these speculators could be adjusting their positions.

Also in this morning's trading, new positions are opening at the weekly 6/14 182.50-strike call, as more bulls seem to be moving in. More broadly speaking, there is extremely heavy open interest at the front-month June 200 and 205 calls.

It's hard to ignore the fact that FB's pullback last week found stiff support from the 200-day moving average, and the shares are now set for a sixth straight positive session. They were last seen up 2.2% at $178.67.

Published on Jun 11, 2019 at 10:28 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ:BYND) stock is spiraling today, down 18.9% at $136.33, pacing for its worst day ever by far. This comes after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "overweight," saying the vegan burger maker's risk/reward is now balanced, and calling the move "purely a valuation call." However, following the stock's race to record highs in recent sessions, the brokerage firm raised its BYND price target by $1 to $121.

Prior to today, analysts maintained two "strong buy" ratings on Beyond Meat, compared to three "hold" recommendations. Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target is docked at $100.83 -- a nearly 27% discount to current trading levels.

And while options traders have been targeting calls, short sellers have been ramping up their exposure -- possibly suggesting shorts have been using calls to hedge against more upside for BYND stock. The 3.89 million Beyond Meat shares controlled by shorts account for 7.2% of the stock's float.

These shorts have been feeling the heat during the food stock's surge up the charts since its early May trading debut. Since its May 2 open at $46 -- well above the company's initial public offering (IPO) price of $25 per share -- BYND has added 194%, and topped out at an all-time peak of $186.43 yesterday. As such, the equity's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed last night at 83, well into overbought territory, suggesting a near-term retreat may have been in the cards.

Published on Jun 12, 2019 at 10:30 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Axovant Sciences Ltd (NASDAQ:AXGT) has seen its stock fall from the mid-$30 range to yesterday's close of $3.94, even after positive data for its Parkinson's treatment. However, Jefferies referred to the shares as "remarkably cheap" and even though it cut its price target to $16 from $24, it kept its "buy" rating in place, obviously expecting huge upside for the gene therapy specialist.

This follows the company's earnings release last night, where it reported a loss of 45 cents, compared to expectations for a larger loss of $1.70. Despite this, the shares are trading lower again today, down 1% at $3.90.

Some options traders have been speculating on an upside move, with the June 6 and 7 calls seeing heavy trading in the past 10 days. In Tuesday's trading, the July 4 call was popular. Overall, 349 calls were bought to open during the past two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), compared to 26 puts.

Meanwhile, short interest fell by 88% in the last two reporting periods, but 10% of the float remains dedicated to short interest. Going by average daily trading volumes, this accounts for 3.2 days' worth of buying power.

Published on Jun 12, 2019 at 10:52 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
  • Intraday Option Activity

The shares of Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) are pulling back from 18-year highs, after analysts at William Blair downgraded the blue chip to "market perform" from "outperform." It's the first time the brokerage firm has adjusted its CSCO rating in six years, citing concerns about increasing competition and growth in fiscal 2020. As such, Cisco stock is set to snap a six-day winning streak -- its longest since March -- and option bears are active this morning.

CSCO stock was last seen 1% lower at $56.51. The equity has rallied roughly 25% so far in 2019, and after a recent bounce off its 100-day moving average, notched a fresh high of $57.56 just yesterday -- territory not charted since November 2000. However, the $57 region acted as a roadblock for CSCO on several occasions already this year, and could once again serve as a technical hurdle.

CSCO stock chart june 12

Cisco options are running hotter than usual after the analyst note. About 12,000 calls and 8,500 puts have changed hands so far -- about 1.5 times the average intraday volume. Most active is the August 55 put, which saw a block of more than 3,000 contracts likely bought to open for $1.77 each, or just over $533,000 (number of contracts * premium paid * 100 shares per contract). The puts will be profitable if CSCO stock sinks beneath the $53.23 level (strike minus premium paid) by the close on Friday, Aug. 16, when the options expire.

Now is an opportune time to be a short-term option buyer on Cisco. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 21% is in just the 20th percentile of its annual range, suggesting near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.

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