Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Oct 28, 2019 at 9:53 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) are up 10% to trade at $132.90 this morning, on track for the best single-session gain ever. The media streaming name reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of 40 cents per share, blowing past the analyst estimates of a 31 cents per share loss. Revenue and premium subscribers also surpassed expectations, while the company announced CFO Barry McCarthy would retire in January.

Should today's results hold, it would be SPOT's fourth straight win, its longest winning streak since July. Spotify stock nabbed a record high of $161.38 on Aug. 1, but promptly collapsed within the next month, briefly dipping below the $112 region. After some consolidation in this area, the shares are now on track to topple their 50-day moving average for the first time since Aug. 19. 

The mood in the options pits heavily favors puts lately. Data at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows Spotify stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.92, which ranks 2 percentage points from an annual high. While the ratio indicates calls outnumber puts on an absolute basis, the lofty ratio shows the heavy preference for puts.

Echoing this, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.78 also ranks in the 93rd percentile of its 12-month range. In other words, short-term speculators are more put-heavy than usual toward SPOT.

 
Published on Oct 28, 2019 at 10:19 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

RingCentral Inc (NYSE:RNG) shares recently bounced from the $150 area, near the site of their huge bull gap earlier this month, and today they're trading up 0.5% at $161.41, thanks to a bullish note out of brokerage firm Jefferies. The analyst in coverage says they see a path where the company's annual revenue can top $2 billion, keeping their "buy" recommendation in place and adding the stock to their "Franchise Picks" list and lifting the price target to $210 from $152.

The price target is a 30% premium to where RNG shares are trading now, and well into record-high territory for the stock, which peaked at $177.99 two weeks ago. Overall, the software concern is up 95.5% on a year-to-date basis.

Despite this, short interest has started to pick up again since we covered RNG at the start of the month. In fact, the last reporting period saw short interest jumped 27.1%, and now there are 5.44 million shares sold short in total, the equivalent of five times the average daily trading volume.

And near-term options traders also remain skeptical it would seem, since the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) comes in at 1.31. This reading ranks in the 73rd annual percentile, too, so it's rare to see traders targeting contracts that expire within three months sitting so put-skewed. Much of this is at far out-of-the-money strikes, however, with peak open interest sitting at the November 115 put, and the November 120 isn't far behind.

But most analysts have remained on the bullish side like Jefferies. By the numbers, there are 15 firms in coverage on RNG, and 14 of them recommend buying the stock. Looking ahead, after market close and one week from today, RingCentral is slated to report third-quarter earnings.

Published on Oct 28, 2019 at 1:15 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stocks On the Move

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is fresh off a record intraday peak, fueled by a big day for luxury retailer Tiffany (TIF). Among other names making notable moves are Dow stock Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), streaming issue Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU), and child care provider Care.com Inc (NYSE:CRCM). Here's a quick roundup of what's moving the shares of MSFT, ROKU, and CRCM.

Microsoft Hits New High After Pentagon Contract

Microsoft stock hit a record high of $145.67 earlier, last seen up 2.1% at $143.63. The upside comes after the tech giant was awarded a $10 billion cloud computing contract by the Pentagon -- beating out Amazon (AMZN). A round of bull notes is strengthening tailwinds, too, with price-target hikes coming through at Mizuho (to $160) and Independent Research (to $150).

Microsoft stock has already had a tremendous run, up 41.% year-to-date -- second only to Apple (AAPL) in terms of best Dow stock of 2019. Options traders have been betting on bigger gains, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MSFT's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.42 ranks in the 83rd annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Today, options traders appear to be buying to open the weekly 11/1 145-strike call, where more than 27,500 contracts have changed hands. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) on these weekly calls was last seen at $1.09, which makes breakeven for the call buyers $146.09 (strike plus premium paid).

BofA-Merrill Lynch Thinks Roku Stock's a Buy

BofA-Merrill Lynch initiated coverage on Roku stock with a "buy" rating and a $154 price target -- a 15% premium to last Friday's close. The brokerage firm said Roku should benefit from rising competition in the streaming space, and called the stock's sell-off in reaction to new streaming options from Comcast (CMCSA) and Facebook (FB) "excessively punitive."

More specifically, ROKU shares fell more than 44% from its Sept. 9 record high of $176.55 to its Sept. 27 low at $98.08. The equity has since retraced more than 50% of this sell-off, and thanks to today's 8.2% pop to trade at $144.74, is now poised for its highest close since Sept. 17.

Bulls are eyeing even bigger gains through week's end. The weekly 11/1 options series is running hot, and buy-to-open activity is detected at the 140-, 145-, 150-, and 160-strike calls. In fact, almost 30,000 contracts have collectively crossed here, or 34% of today's intraday call volume.

Care.com Climbs Big Board on Buyout Buzz

Care.com is trading near the top of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today, after a Bloomberg report suggested the online caregiver marketplace is reviewing strategic options, including a potential sale. At last check, CRCM stock is up 9.2% to trade at $12.21.

The shares are still down more than 36% year-to-date, and today's upside is being contained by CRCM's 160-day moving average. Plus, the equity has yet to fill a late-June bear gap that was sparked by a C-suite shake-up.

Speculative players are flooding into Care.com's typically quiet options pits, with nearly 2,000 contracts on the tape so far -- 37 times what's typically seen at this point. The December 15 call is most active, and all signs suggest new positions are being purchased here for a VWAP of $0.36, making breakeven for the premium buyers $15.36.

Published on Oct 28, 2019 at 2:24 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ:OMER) earlier said it initiated the rolling submission process for a Biologics License Application (BLA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for narsoplimab, its leading antibody to treat hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA). The therapy already holds an orphan drug designation from the FDA.

Cantor Fitzgerald was quick to weigh in, saying if narsoplimab is approved, it could "generate meaningful revenue for OMER," and "unlock significant value in [the] shares." The brokerage firm -- which has a "overweight" rating and $26 price target on the equity -- said the "risk-reward is to the upside," and that Omeros stock creates a "compelling investment opportunity."

Against this backdrop, OMER stock is up 5.3% to trade at $16.77, set to close above its 30-day moving average for the first time since Sept. 17. The shares have been climbing since a mid-October bounce off familiar support near $14.80, and are now up nearly 50% year-to-date.

Should the shares stay hot, shorts could be encouraged to throw in the towel -- which may translate into buying power for OMER. Short interest jumped 4.1% in the most recent reporting period to 11.78 million shares, representing 25.4% of the stock's available float, or 27.9 times the average daily pace of trading.

Published on Oct 29, 2019 at 9:12 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

At least one analyst is expecting big things from Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) in the earnings confessional this week. The coffee chain is set to report third-quarter results after the close tomorrow, Oct. 30, and KeyBanc envisions strong same-store sales growth of 5%, above the consensus view of 4.5% growth. The analyst also does not think the U.S.-China trade tensions will impact the report, noting how there was little effect for McDonald's (MCD) or Nike (NKE).

Today, Starbucks stock is up 0.3% in electronic trading. Since coming within a chip-shot of $100 back in July, SBUX has taken a 16% haircut, last seen at $83.60. However, the shares have found support at their 200-day moving average, a trendline that hasn't been breached in over a year. Plus, it helps that the equity has a history of outperformance in the fourth quarter.

Looking at Starbucks's earnings history also should give investors confidence. SBUX shares have moved higher the day after six of the last eight earnings releases, including an 8.9% surge back in July that netted new record highs. On average, the stock has moved 4% in the session after earnings, regardless of direction, looking back two years. This time around, the options market is pricing in a bigger 7.1% swing for the coffee stock.

Ahead of the event, options traders have been targeting calls. In the last 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 2.68 calls were bought to open for every put. This ratio is close to an annual high, indicating the rate of call buying relative to put buying has been much quicker than usual. Plus, the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 88 (out of 100) shows Starbucks's strong tendency to make bigger-than-expected moves during the past year, relative to what the options market was pricing in.

Published on Oct 29, 2019 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Xerox Holdings Corp (NYSE:XRX) is gaining 15% this morning to trade at $35.41, thanks to the company's third-quarter earnings beat and upwardly revised full-year profit outlook. This price action has XRX stock jumping above the 200-day moving average and testing the site of the July earnings bear gap. Xerox had moved lower following the last two earnings releases, and it appears options traders were betting on a similar move this time.

To be more specific, the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 2.68, which ranks in the 100th annual percentile. This shows that traders targeting options that expire within three months are unusually put-heavy at the moment, hinting at bearish expectations.

What's more, peak open interest in the front-month November series rests at the 30-strike put. Data shows mostly buy-to-open activity here, confirming that a number of traders were betting on a pullback from XRX in the short term.

To be sure, these aren't the only skeptics, since short interest is still elevated on Xerox. By the numbers, the 7.76 million shares sold short represent nearly four days' worth of buying power, based on average daily trading volumes. This leaves the potential for short covering, which could help the shares keep rising on the charts.

Published on Oct 29, 2019 at 2:08 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

Strong earnings from a pair of big-cap pharmaceutical firms is keeping the S&P 500 Index (SPX) above water today, though gains are modest due to a negative reaction to Alphabet's (GOOGL) quarterly results. Not all stocks are moving on earnings today, though, with grocery names Kroger Co (NYSE:KR), BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (NYSE:BJ), and Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC) selling off on Amazon Prime news.

Kroger Bears Cheer Latest Slide

Kroger stock is down 2.2% at $24.76, on news Amazon (AMZN) will offer free grocery delivery to U.S. Prime members. The security has been selling off since a mid-September rejection at its 320-day moving average, down 7.4%. KR shares are now off 10% year-to-date, and options traders appear to be positioned for even more downside in the near term.

The equity's front-month (FM) Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.11 indicates near-the-money puts outweigh calls in the monthly November series. Peak FM open interest sits at the November 24.50 put, and data from Trade-Alert signals buy-to-open activity here. If this is the case, the put buyers expect KR to slide below the strike by expiration at the close on Friday, Nov. 15 -- a time frame that includes the grocer's Nov. 5 analyst day.

Analysts Stay Bullish on BJs Wholesale Club

The shares of BJs Wholesale Club are off 2.4% to trade at $25.27, falling below short-term support in the $25.50-$25.70 region -- a region that sits 50% above its June 2018 initial public offering (IPO) price and is home to its 200-day moving average. The shares were up 17% year-to-date heading into today's trading, and analysts remain upbeat.

Currently, nine of 12 brokerages maintain a "strong buy" rating, with not a single "sell" on the books. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $31.46 is a 24.5% premium to BJ stock's current perch.

Shorts Target Struggling Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage shares have been cut in half over the past 12 months, and are down 3.8% today at $8.68. Short sellers have been in the driver's seat, too. These bearish bets rose 5.6% in the most recent reporting period to 992,030 shares, representing 11.1% of NGVC's available float, or 12.7 times the average daily pace of trading.

Published on Oct 30, 2019 at 9:34 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAG) have been cast to the bottom of the Nasdaq today, following news that a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee voted in favor of taking the firm's Makena drug, which is used to reduce the risk of preterm birth, off the market. An official FDA ruling is expected early next year.

The women's healthcare concern is down 26.3% at $9.82 in early trading, just one day after hitting an eight-month high of $13.53 yesterday. Now AMAG is slicing straight through its 80-day moving average -- a trendline that caught several pullbacks in recent months -- and is set to settle south of here for the first time since early August. What's more, the drugmaker is eyeing its biggest one-day drop in almost three years. 

The news has already attracted analyst attention. Piper Jaffray downgraded the security to "underweight" from "neutral" and slashed its price target to $6 from $9. This bear note joins the already underwhelmed brokerage bunch, which has given out seven "hold" or worse ratings, compared to only two "buys." What's more, the consensus 12-month price target of $11.50 was a nearly 15% discount to last night's close. 

While short interest declined in the last reporting period, the 13.41 million shares sold short still represent 40.16% of the stock's available float, and would take almost an entire month to cover at AMAG's average pace of trading.

Published on Oct 30, 2019 at 9:52 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) are down 3% to trade at $35.98 today, after UBS downgraded the retailer to "sell" from "neutral." While the analyst in coverage kept a $30 price target, they warned that a weak holiday shopping season and tariffs could weigh on the company's earnings. Nordstrom reports third-quarter earnings after the close on Thursday, Nov. 21.

Since bottoming at $25 on Aug. 15, JWN had gained 48% through yesterday's close. However, that rally stalled near the shares' 200-day moving average, and the site of an earnings-induced bear gap from May.

Calls have been growing in popularity during JWN's recent pop. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.37 ranks in the 83rd annual percentile, indicating the rate of call buying relative to put buying has been quicker than usual.

However, there's a chance some of those calls could be a result of short sellers seeking an options hedge against any additional upside. That's because 30.5% of JWN's total available float is sold short, which accounts for 6.5 days of buying power, at the stock's average pace of trading.

Published on Oct 30, 2019 at 10:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Edison International (NYSE:EIX) has been in the headlines recently due to the California wildfires, along with peer PG&E, and the company last night admitted in its earnings call that its equipment likely played a role in the fire in Woolsey. EIX stock fell to $63.70 out of the gate, and was last seen at $65, down 0.6% so far. Meanwhile, recent data shows options traders have been buying puts to bet on a slide in the utilities stock.

Specifically, the 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) comes in at 3.53, showing more than three puts were bought to open for every call in the last two weeks. What's more, this reading ranks in the 73rd annual percentile, meaning this type of preference for long puts isn't normal.

During this time frame, two of the largest increases in open interest occurred at the December and November 65 puts. Data confirms buy-to-open action at both contracts, so traders are betting on EIX shares breaching $65 in the weeks ahead.

Despite the turmoil around the company, not many people have decided to short the stock. Short interest actually fell by 9.7% in the last reporting period, and now accounts for just 2.1% of the total float. Meanwhile, four of the nine brokerage firms in coverage still have "strong buy" ratings in place. But even without the wildfire drama, EIX may be a name that traders would have preferred to avoid, since it has historically been one of the worst stocks to own in November.

Published on Oct 30, 2019 at 3:14 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News

The broader stock market is mixed after the Fed cut its key interest rate, as expected, but struck a hawkish tone in its forward-looking statement. Among individual names making notable moves are central nervous system specialist Seneca Biopharma, Inc. -- formerly Neuralstem, Inc. (NASDAQ:CUR) -- sporting goods retailer Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation (NASDAQ:BGFV), and financial services firm HC2 Holdings Inc (NYSE:HCHC). Here's a quick look at what's moving the shares of CUR, BGFV, and HCHC.

Big China Deal Boosts Seneca Biopharma Stock

Seneca Biopharma -- which changed its name this past Monday, Oct. 28, and will change its ticker to SNCA in early November -- said it inked a term deal to license assets to China's Jiangsu QYuns Therapeutics Co Ltd. Should the agreement go through, the former firm will gain global rights to the latter's asthma and atopic dermatitis treatment. In reaction, CUR stock is up 57.9% at $2.07, approaching familiar resistance at its 80-day moving average. The shares are still down 66.9% year-to-date, and remain stuck beneath the site of a late-July bear gap.

Big 5 Sporting Goods Scales Nasdaq After Earnings

Big 5 Sporting Goods said its third-quarter net profit more than doubled year-over-year to $6.4 million, while same-store sales were positive for a fourth straight quarter. Against this backdrop, BGFV stock is up 39.4% at $3.36, slicing through long-term resistance at its 200-day moving average.

This sharp upside move is likely catching short sellers off-guard. The 5.23 million BGFV shares controlled by bears represent 26.4% of the equity's available float, or 18.9 times the average daily pace of trading. As such, today's tailwinds are possibly being strengthened by a round of short covering.

Huawei Buzz Lifts HC2 Holdings

HC2 Holdings said its marine services division was selling 30% of its stake in Huawei Marine Networks -- a joint venture with Huawei Technologies. HCHC stock was last seen up 5.5% at $2.32, but is still staring up at its 200-day moving average. This trendline has only been toppled once on a daily closing basis since October 2018, and has helped usher HCHC to a nearly 57% year-over-year deficit.

Published on Oct 31, 2019 at 10:02 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM

Near the top of the Nasdaq this morning sit two drug stocks. First up is Dicerna Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:DRNA), after the company scored a research and licensing agreement with Roche AG. The two will develop treatments for chronic hepatitis B, with Dicerna getting $200 million up front and up to $1.47 billion in milestone payments. 

In response, DRNA is up 14.4% to trade at $18, and earlier tapped a new four-year high of $18.39. The shares have carved out a channel of higher lows and highs for the past in 2019, with their 160-day moving average catching recent pullbacks. The equity is now up over 65%year-to-date.

A short squeeze could be fueling additional gains today. Short interest fell in the two most recent reporting periods, but the 4.37 million shares sold short still accounts for a healthy 8.4% of DRNA's total available float. At the stock's average pace of trading, it would take more than two weeks for shorts to buy back their bearish bets.

Then there's Recro Pharma Inc (NASDAQ:REPH), up 8.7% to trade at $15, earlier scoring an over four-year high of $15.46. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted an appeal to the rejected application for IV meloxicam, the company's non-opioid shot for pain relief. Recro had sought an appeal after the FDA rejected the intravenous shot twice. REPH stock -- heading toward its fourth straight win -- has now more than doubled in 2019, with its 80-day moving average containing pullbacks in August and October. 

Prior to today, the stock's options pits seemed strictly reserved for calls, amid light absolute volume. In the last 10 days, 942 calls were bought to open at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), compared to just two puts.

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