With the situation in Greece looking more promising still, U.S. stocks are set for a strong morning. Among the equities in focus are tech concern BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY), restaurant owner Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI), and analytics firm IHS Inc. (NYSE:IHS).

• BBRY is off 0.7% in pre-market action, despite the company posting stronger-than-expected software revenue for the first quarter. A new licensing deal with Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) also has the stock buzzing, as BlackBerry Ltd will receive licensing fees from CSCO as part of the agreement. It'll be interesting to see if today's positive news can dispel any of the pessimism surrounding the stock. Most notably, almost 18% of BBRY's float is sold short, and would take more than 13 sessions to repurchase, at the security's average daily volumes. The shares settled at $9.20 yesterday, sitting 9.1% lower year-over-year. Elsewhere, the company is also hosting its annual shareholders meeting today. 


• DRI is pointed close to 5% higher ahead of the open, with traders applauding the company's decision to start a real estate investment trust (REIT) using 430 of its properties, which will act as its own publicly traded company. What's more, the equity's fiscal fourth-quarter numbers beat the Street's expectations. Darden Restaurants, Inc. is already up over 45% during the past 12 months, and could move higher if analysts become more bullish. Twelve of 22 brokerage firms say DRI is a "hold" or worse, and the stock is set to take out its average 12-month price target of $69.68 out of the gate. On Monday, the shares closed at $69.38, and could topple their late-March all-time high of $70.38 this morning.


• There's a lot to digest with ​IHS​ this morning. The company announced fiscal second-quarter numbers that topped expectations, while raising its full-year outlook and approving a $500 million stock buyback plan. The shares have been strong in 2015, up 13% at $128.63. IHS Inc. option traders have remained focused on puts, though. The security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) sits at 1.74, higher than 72% of all similar readings from the past year. 

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Analysts are weighing in today on oil-and-gas issue Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG), diagnostic testing specialist Quest Diagnostics Inc (NYSE:DGX), and data storage solutions concern Western Digital Corp (NASDAQ:WDC). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on RIG, DGX, and WDC.

• Global Hunter Securities cut its price target on RIG to $16 from $18 -- representing a discount to last night's close at $16.94. However, reports the company inked $109 million in new drilling contracts -- an annual high -- are overshadowing this downbeat analyst note, with shares of RIG up 1.4% at $17.17. Technically speaking, its been a rough road for Transocean LTD, which hit a 52-week peak of $46.12 one year ago today, but has since shed 63% of its value. Against this backdrop, sentiment among the brokerage bunch is already skewed toward the skeptical side. All 19 analysts, for example, maintain a "hold" or worse rating.


• DGX saw its rating reduced to "neutral" from "buy" at Goldman Sachs, sending the shares down 1% in early trading. Since spiking to an all-time high of $89 in late May amid M&A rumors, the stock has cooled its jets, down 19.6% at $71.55. Option traders, meanwhile, have been rolling the dice on a rebound by buying to open calls over puts at a faster-than-usual clip. Specifically, Quest Diagnostics Inc's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 6.81 ranks in the 73rd percentile of its annual range.


• J.P. Morgan Securities lowered its outlook for WDC to "neutral" from "overweight," and cut its price target to $92 from $105 -- roughly in line with Monday's settlement at $91.60. The stock dropped 2.5% out of the gate to $89.36 on the negative analyst attention, bringing its year-to-date deficit to 19.3%. Should Western Digital Corp continue to struggle, another round of downgrades and/or price-target cuts could come down the pike from the generally upbeat brokerage bunch -- which may create additional headwinds for the shares. Of the 19 analysts covering the WDC, 15 maintain a "buy" or "strong buy" rating, while the average 12-month price target of $115.67 sits in territory yet to be charted.

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It's official: Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) has finalized its acquisition of AOL, Inc., after the two firms agreed to terms early last month. AOL CEO Tim Armstrong will continue to lead the unit, reporting to VZ Executive Vice President Marni Walden. In light of the news, shares of VZ are 0.4% higher at $47.74 -- good news for recent call buyers.

In fact, long calls have been popular in recent weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Traders have bought to open 2.63 calls for every put during the last 10 days, and the resultant call/put volume ratio is higher than 70% of comparable readings from the last year.

Looking elsewhere, the brokerage crowd is bullishly skewed toward VZ. Fifteen analysts currently rate the stock a "buy" or better, compared to seven "holds" and just one "strong sell." Even short sellers have been hitting the exits, with short interest falling 19.1% during the two most recent reporting periods. Now, just 1.5% of VZ's float is sold short.

This optimism is perturbing, considering Verizon Communications Inc.'s (NYSE:VZ) technical track record. The stock is down more than 6% since its early May high of $50.86 -- despite the aforementioned short covering -- and today's gains are being contained by its descending 20-day moving average. Should the shares' struggles resume, a capitulation among bulls and/or an uptick in short selling could pressure VZ.

Analysts are weighing in today on semiconductor firm Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA), drugmaker Cempra Inc (NASDAQ:CEMP), and transportation issue Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on AMBA, CEMP, and LUV.

• AMBA is bouncing back from yesterday's bloody session, up 8.6% at $102.43. Boosting the stock is a bullish nod from CNBC's Jim Cramer, who called it "too inexpensive to ignore." Similarly, FBN Securities called yesterday's pullback a "buying opportunity" due to the company's "multiple growth drivers in many attractive markets." On the charts, Ambarella Inc has been an all-star, more than doubling in value in 2015, and tripling year-over-year. However, levels of skepticism remain high. For instance, 28.1% of AMBA's float is sold short, representing four days' worth of pent-up buying demand, at typical volumes. Similarly, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open 1.16 puts for every call in the last 10 days -- a ratio that ranks in the 90th annual percentile. Should shorts and option bears begin to hit the exits, it could further energize AMBA's ascent.


• CEMP has jumped 5.6% to $38.48, following a price-target hike to $57 from $44 at Stifel. The big gains are business as usual for the shares, which have added roughly 64% in 2015 -- and more than tripled in value year-over-year. The brokerage crowd has already recognized Cempra Inc's technical exploits, with all nine covering analysts doling out "strong buy" endorsements. However, additional price-target hikes may be in the cards, as CEMP's consensus 12-month price target of $40.60 is just 5.5% above current trading levels. Should that happen, CEMP could make a run at its mid-March all-time high of $41.63.


• Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on LUV with an "underweight" assessment and a $37 price target. The note has had a negative effect on the stock, which is off 0.3% at $34.69. Longer term, it's been a brutal year for Southwest Airlines Co, which has surrendered 18% in 2015. As such, bearish options activity has been running hot at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX. During the last 10 weeks, traders have bought to open 0.55 puts for every call -- a ratio that ranks just 3 percentage points from a 52-week high.

Cybersecurity stocks have been marching higher in 2015, and there's a reason why -- businesses keep falling victim to hackers. This morning, in fact, Polish airline LOT said 1,400 passengers were grounded over the weekend following a cyber attack. More disconcerting yet, CEO Sebastian Mikosz said the problem extends throughout the industry, and thinks "it can happen to anyone anytime." In light of this news, we decided to take a closer look at three cybersecurity stocks poised to extend their record-setting runs: Cyberark Software Ltd (NASDAQ:CYBR), Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ:FTNT), and Palo Alto Networks Inc (NYSE:PANW).

• CYBR has advanced nearly 80% this year to trade at $71.22, and late last week topped out at an all-time best of $76.35. While the shares are down 2.7% today -- following the lead of FireEye Inc (NASDAQ:FEYE) -- they remain perched solidly above their supportive 10-week moving average. However, the brokerage bunch has yet to fully appreciate Cyberark Software Ltd's technical tenacity, as five of eight consider the stock a "hold" or worse. Plus, the equity's consensus 12-month price target of $60.80 stands at a discount to current trading levels. In other words, the stars may be aligned for a potential round of bullish analyst attention.


• FTNT has surged more than 42% year-to-date to trade at $43.62, and is 1.1% higher at midday, following a price-target hike to $49 from $43 at UBS. What's more, the stock hit a record high of $44.12 last Thursday, and has outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by almost 25 percentage points over the last three months. Regardless, one-third of analysts tracking Fortinet Inc maintain tepid "hold" ratings, and the equity's current price outstrips the average 12-month price target of $42.80. Long story short, the stage may be set for future upgrades and/or upward price-target revisions.


• PANW jumped to an all-time peak of $185, after UBS bumped its price target to $206 from $180, but has since slipped -- currently 0.9% lower at $182.38. However, the shares have still more than doubled in value year-over-year. While the brokerage bunch is largely bullish toward Palo Alto Networks Inc, traders at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open puts over calls at a faster-than-usual rate in recent months. Specifically, the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.09 outranks nearly three-quarters of all comparable readings from the past year. An unwinding of this pessimism could add fuel to PANW's fire.

This morning, Kite Pharma Inc (NASDAQ: KITE) and bluebird bio Inc (NASDAQ: BLUE) announced that they are going to team up to develop and market T-cell therapies for human papillomavirus (HPV). HPV is the most common viral infection of the reproductive tract, and it is believed to cause as much as 70% of cervical cancers. In addition, HPV may contribute to other urogenital cancers.

While both stocks have backed off from their intraday highs, both are trading higher. We could be seeing a bit of a short-covering rally from each of these biotech firms. BLUE sports a short-interest ratio of 2.40 with nearly 8% of its float sold short. KITE may have a bit more momentum to fuel a short-covering rally, as 16% of its float is sold short and it would take nearly four days for the bears to buy back their shorted shares, at average daily trading volumes.

The pessimism from the short sellers is a good sign for both firms, as it could be fueling a sustained move higher. The biggest sentiment danger for this duo comes from analysts. BLUE has nine analysts tracking it and KITE has five. It isn't a lack of coverage that is the potential problem, it is the fact that all of these analysts rate the respective firms as "strong buys." These rankings allow a lot of room for downgrades -- should the stocks reverse course -- which could push the shares lower. (For more on how we use analyst rankings in our trading here at Schaeffer's, click here.)

Technically, bluebird bio Inc (NASDAQ: BLUE) could be headed back toward an all-time high, as it is riding along support from its 10-week moving average. The last time this trendline was breached on a closing basis was in late February. Watch for continued support, although the stock could stagnate a bit – it is currently trading at $180.81, while the trendline is approaching $170. Similarly, KITE's 10-week moving average may provide support if needed. This moving average acted as rather solid resistance throughout the early part of 2015, but it now has a chance to flip roles. Should the moving average make a substantial turn higher, it could help Kite Pharma Inc (NASDAQ: KITE) advance through potential resistance at the $70 level. At last check, KITE was trading at $66.28.

While the major market indexes are rallying on hopes of a Greek debt deal, the shares of semiconductor concern Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA) are on pace for their worst day on record. The stock is down 19.5% at $96.04 -- and on the short-sale restricted list -- poised to close in double-digit territory for the first time since June 3, amid lingering concerns from a short-seller report. Against this backdrop, AMBA options are flying off the shelves. 

Specifically, intraday option volume is running at four times the typical pace, with puts edging past calls. The security's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has skyrocketed 31.2% to 71.7% -- a new annual high.

It looks like short-term bears are buying to open weekly 6/26 100-strike puts, gambling on AMBA to extend its retreat beneath the century mark through Friday's close, when the options expire. Slightly longer-term bears are betting on an even deeper plunge, buying to open July 90 puts. The puts will move into the money if AMBA breaches $90 -- territory not charted since late May -- by the close on Friday, July 17, when front-month options expire. 

Even before AMBA's recent fall from grace, option players were picking up long puts over calls at a faster-than-usual clip. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.22 stands higher than 91% of all other readings from the past year. 

In the same vein, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.24 sits in the 78th percentile of its annual range. In other words, short-term option traders are more put-heavy than usual. 

Prior to Friday, AMBA was flying high on the charts. The stock touched a record peak of $128.06 on Thursday, and boasted a year-to-date gain of more than 150%. That lead has been trimmed to less than 90% today. 

So, what caused the stock's decline? As alluded to earlier, Citron Research late last week waxed pessimistic on the company's growth prospects, and said the stock could lose more than half its value over the next year, setting a 12-month price target of $60, and an 18-month target of $40. 

However, short sellers were betting on Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA) to crumble, even before the aforementioned short-seller report. Short interest represents more than 28% of the equity's total available float.

Analysts are weighing in today on cruise concern Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL), burrito baron Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG), and streaming content provider Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on CCL, CMG, and NFLX.

• CCL is fresh off a multi-year high of $50.65, after Deutsche Bank raised its assessment to "buy" from "hold." The brokerage firm expects Carnival Corp -- which will enter the earnings confessional tomorrow morning -- to post fiscal second-quarter results above the upper end of its guidance. At last check, the stock was still 1.7% higher at $49.77, and has soared 50% since its mid-October low of $33.11. Should CCL muscle to even higher highs, additional analysts could be forced to upwardly revise their ratings. Currently, more than half of the brokerage firms tracking the stock consider it a "hold" or worse, and the average 12-month price target of $52.35 stands at a slim 5.2% premium to current trading levels.


• CMG has tacked on 0.5% to trade at $618.47, as broad-market tailwinds overshadow a price-target cut to $725 from $770 at Credit Suisse. Longer term, however, the shares have struggled -- off 15% since reaching a record high of $727.97 in early January. That hasn't stopped options traders from betting bullishly on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. During the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 1.24 calls for every put -- a ratio that outstrips 93% of comparable readings from the previous 12 months.


• BTIG upped its price target on NFLX to $950 -- in record-high territory, and the loftiest outlook on Wall Street -- saying the company's business model is "gaining meaningful momentum." As such, the stock has jumped 2.4% to $673 -- 97% higher than where it ended 2014. Options traders have been on Netflix, Inc.'s bullish bandwagon for some time. The stock's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 1.11 sits a mere 8 percentage points from a 52-week high.

Ahead of BlackBerry Ltd's (NASDAQ:BBRY) first-quarter earnings report, due out bright and early tomorrow, options traders have displayed significant pessimism. During the past 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the mobile phone maker has accrued a put/call volume ratio of 0.44 -- in the 79th percentile of its annual range.

Echoing this is BBRY's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.89, which ranks higher than 86% of comparable readings from the last year. In other words, short-term traders have rarely been so put-skewed toward the equity.

Options players aren't the only ones expressing doubt toward BBRY. Nearly 18% of the stock's float is sold short, representing over 13 sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at typical daily trading levels. If that's not enough, 16 of 19 analysts tracking the shares have doled out "hold" or worse recommendations.

Collectively, these skeptics may be on the ropes as BBRY has popped 2.6% this afternoon to hover near $9.14. An earnings win could put additional pressure on doubters, too. In the session following three of the previous four reports, the equity has rallied -- and the lone exception was a minor 0.8% loss. This time around, the options market is pricing in a 7.9% post-earnings shift, per the equity's near-term at-the-money straddle.

Meanwhile, sentiment already appears to be shifting, based on today's options activity. Specifically, BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) calls are trading at triple the usual intraday rate -- and three times the pace of puts -- with possible buy-to-open activity at the weekly 6/26 9-strike and July 10 calls.

The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are airline issue Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) and Internet name Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO), which are both slated to host their annual shareholder conferences this week.

DAL -- which will hold its annual event this Thursday -- is up 1.7% at $42.71 this afternoon, as a bullish write-up in Barron's over the weekend overshadows a cybersecurity attack at one of its international peers. Today's positive price action comes as a welcome change to the stock's longer-term trajectory, with the shares off 16% from their late-January record peak of $51.06.

Unlike analysts, option traders have kept the faith, and at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), they have bought to open 9.73 calls for each put over the past 10 sessions. What's more, this ratio rests higher than all other readings taken in the past year, meaning long calls have been initiated over puts at an annual-high clip.

In the weekly 6/26 series -- which expires at this Friday's close -- peak call open interest is found at the 43.50 strike, where more than 10,000 contracts reside. It looks like a significant number of positions were bought to open last Friday, meaning speculators are betting on Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) to extend its lead north of $43.50 through week's end.

Ahead of YHOO's annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday, the stock is up 0.5% at $40.73 -- paring its year-to-date deficit to 19.4%. However, today's upside appears to be running out of steam near the security's 10-day moving average, a trendline that has been ushering YHOO lower since mid-May.

Skepticism has been building toward YHOO in recent months, per the stock's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.44, which ranks in the 98th percentile of its annual range. In other words, puts have been bought to open over calls with more rapidity just 2% of the time within the past year.

Drilling down on the weekly 6/26 series, peak put open interest of roughly 3,300 contracts resides at the 40.50 strike. Today, the strike appears to be seeing mostly buy-to-open activity. For those purchasing the puts, the goal is for Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) to settle the week south of $40.50.

Another Friday, another weekend with worries about Greece. But at least there's a big summit today and we can finally put this crisis behind us. From MarketWatch:

"European Council President Donald Tusk on Friday sought to play down expectations ahead of an emergency meeting of eurozone leaders, saying the Monday gathering won't be the 'final step' in negotiations over Greeece's [sic] bailout. 'The purpose of the summit is to make sure that we all understand each other's positions and the possible consequences of our decisions. The summit will not be the final step and there will be no detailed technical negotiations,' Tusk said in a letter inviting eurozone leaders to the meeting." 

OK, I guess not. That's good, though; I mean, what would we do every time we got new or near all-time highs? We need some reason to stop, and thanks to the never-ending Greek story, always have a reason to pause.

So here's to never resolving Greece! Forty more years! Forty more years!

If we're so worried about Greece over here, we have a funny way of showing it. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains mired in the low teens. It remains more "excuse to sell" than "reason to panic" so far.

But... there's a whole world of "fear gauges" beyond VIX. Including Europe's VIX. And that Europe VIX is doing quite well. ZeroHedge ran this chart the other day: 

 

  

Yes, Europe's favorite fear gauge is at its highest level related to our VIX. In fact, every fear gauge is doing well relative to VIX. We remain an island of calm amidst a sea of Greece worries.

The assumption remains that it's just a matter of time before we start to wake up and smell the fear that's percolating around many other asset classes. The trick is always in the timing. As we note weekly, we're overdue for a VIX blip. We're also sort-of due for a longer-lasting volatility lift. I just wouldn't assume any of that means doom for the actual market. We can lift alongside rising volatility. And I guess that's what I ultimately expect: a period of gradually rising volatility and a market that still acts well.

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"… the Fed is back in the spotlight this week, with a policy statement on Wednesday followed by a press briefing from Fed Chair Janet Yellen … SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY - 210.01) finds itself in precarious position, trading around the put-heavy 210 strike. It is one of those situations in which a macro event (Europe, Fed) can drastically push the SPY in one direction or the other, which calls for exposure to both sides of the market amid the uncertainty this week ... Sharper moves than usual can occur because those that sold portfolio insurance via SPY put options hedge themselves by shorting SPX futures ... In situations wherein the SPY moves further above heavy put strikes, such as 210, those options become decreasingly sensitive to SPY moves, and the hedges are unwound via short covering, producing potentially powerful short-term rallies."
-- Monday Morning Outlook, June 15, 2015
​

Short covering occurring related to heavy $SPY put open interest that expires in a few days? $SPX

— Todd Salamone (@toddsalamone) June 17, 2015

After a sharp sell-off last Monday morning due to a breakdown in negotiations between Greece and its creditors, equities rallied sharply from Monday’s low. The advance was in part due to the Federal Reserve plotting a projected slower course for rate hikes this year and in 2016-2017.

As expected, macro events that occurred during expiration week last week generated dramatic moves in the market. This time, the move was in the bulls' favor, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - 210.81) rallying strongly from heavy put open interest at the 208 strike -- Monday morning's magnet -- to the call-heavy 213 and 213.50 strikes, which emerged as a "call wall" after the "hurry up and get there" short covering related to expiring out-of-the-money put open interest dissipated. 

SPY June Open Interest Configuration -- SPY lows and highs last week clearly defined by "lopsided" call versus put open interest in the just-expired June series, marked by horizontal lines in 30-min SPY graph from last week ​

"If you are looking to reduce equity risk … avoid Europe -- where there is a lot of uncertainty, despite being a popular destination among many investors. And even though the DJIA and SPX are trading around support, you can reduce exposure in these underperforming areas of the market ... Maintain your current allocation to outperforming areas, such as small-cap and mid-cap stocks. These areas have been relative-strength leaders in recent weeks and have rewarded investors this year, more so than their larger-cap counterparts."
-- Monday Morning Outlook, June 8,  2015

Looking ahead to this week, we expect that the special European summit -- called in an attempt to carve out a deal with Greece -- and a robust U.S. economic data calendar will dominate headlines. Whether Greece strikes a deal with its creditors or not, whether or not a "no deal" results in Greece eventually leaving the European Union, and the impact (if any) of a "Grexit" are still unknowns. But judging by what the markets are saying at this juncture, headlines related to Greece seem to be generating a lot of noise in the short term, while bigger picture, the markets seem to be saying that Greece is not as big of an issue to the U.S. as the headlines might suggest. Put another way, Greece's stock market is deep in the red this year, whereas the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 2,109.99) has been trading above its 2014 close since early April.  Moreover, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT - 1,284.66), S&P MidCap 400 Index (MID - 1,540.83) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP - 5,117.00) have posted respectable gains between 6% and 8% in 2015.

$COMP closes right at 2000's intraday all-time high of 2,132

— Todd Salamone (@toddsalamone) June 18, 2015

$RUT breakout to all-time highs, $MID trying

— Todd Salamone (@toddsalamone) June 18, 2015

Since $SPX rallied to 2,100 on Feb. 17, it has touched this level on 33 days, or nearly 40% of the time.

— Todd Salamone (@toddsalamone) June 17, 2015

"Since 1990, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a 1.1% decline the week after June’s witching day, falling 22 of the last 25 years, according to Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slid 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively, during the same time frame."
-- The Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2015

In addition to the drama surrounding Greece, the charts present a few interesting situations. With the exception of the RUT, many equity benchmarks are trading just below previous resistance levels as we move into this week, which historically has been weak, per the Wall Street Journal excerpt immediately above (this past Friday was a "witching" day -- expiration of index, futures, and stock options).

The COMP, which achieved a new intraday all-time high in Thursday's trading and then closed right at 5,132 -- its previous all-time high in 2000 -- before retreating slightly on Friday. Despite the COMP trading just below its 2000 intraday high, it remains above its 2015 closing high at 5,106. As you can see on the below graph, the COMP broke out above an ascending triangle last week, and if this breakout holds, a minimum target of 5,340 is on the horizon.

But the big question for those following the S&P 500 Index -- which remains locked in a range -- is whether or not the round SPX 2,100 level continues to act as a magnet, which has been the case since mid-February. Other equity benchmarks continue to do battle with round numbers, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA - 18,015.95), as sellers predominate on moves above 18,000, but buyers continue to emerge when this average pulls back to its 2014 close in the 17,800 area. Since the DJIA first touched 18,000 on Feb. 13, this level has been touched on 36 days, or 41% of the trading days.

DJIA 2015 -- As simple as it sounds, pullbacks to the area of its 2014 close (horizontal line) have produced short-term buying opportunities since mid-April  

"… on Friday morning, the VIX peaked at 15.65, which is in the area that marks half its 52-week high at 31.06, and 50% above its 52-week low at 10.28. We have observed on numerous occasions that the VIX has had a peculiar tendency to peak or trough at 50% or 100% above or below major inflection points. With that being said, there is an increased chance that the mean-reverting VIX put in a short-term top last week. If, however, the VIX takes out last week's highs over the course of this upcoming week, bulls should take caution."
-- Monday Morning Outlook, June 8, 2015

$VIX continues to peak short term at half its '14 high (31.06), which is 15.53 level $SPY $SPX

— Todd Salamone (@toddsalamone) June 18, 2015

We continue to keep a close eye on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX - 13.96), which again ran up to the 15.50 area this past week before turning sharply lower. With 15.50 roughly half its 2014 high of 31.06, and also 50% above the VIX's 2014 closing low of 10.32, we have keyed on 15.50 as a potential marker for a pivot or continuation move during multiple VIX pops this year.

VIX -- Multiple reversals from 15.50 in recent months

With the VIX still relatively "tame" amid volatile macro headlines, the historical implications of a strong market immediately following pessimistic extremes in retail investor sentiment (discussed last week), key areas of the market such as small-caps and financials hitting new highs (as some technicians obsess about weakness in transport stocks), the market is positioned for healthy upside. Such doubt and caution represent potential buying power that can weaken the shackles that define the persistent range.

That said, with nearly 7 million SPY puts expiring on Friday, or 30% of those outstanding, and VIX call activity likely to be robust following the expiration of June VIX futures options last Wednesday, increased hedging activity could cap rally attempts into the end of the month. Nonetheless, risk-reward continues to look favorable for bulls.   

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