Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Nov 21, 2014 at 9:12 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are anti-virus firm Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd (NYSE:QIHU), coffee purveyor Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX), and alternative energy concern Trina Solar Limited (ADR) (NYSE:TSL). Below, we'll break down how options buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on QIHU, SBUX, and TSL.

  • QIHU closed Thursday 0.7% lower at $67.55, bringing its year-to-date loss to 17.7%. What's more, the shares continue to test support at their 100-week moving average, and are on pace to close below this trendline for the third time in the past seven weeks -- before which it had never been breached. Nevertheless, traders at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open more than three QIHU calls for every put during the past 10 weeks. The resultant 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 3.40 ranks just 3 percentage points from an annual acme, suggesting traders are betting bullishly ahead of Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd's upcoming turn in the earnings confessional -- after the close next Monday. Meanwhile, short-term options are priced rather affordably right now, in spite of the aforementioned event. QIHU's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 51% ranks in the bottom one-third of all readings taken in the previous year.

  • SBUX landed 0.5% higher yesterday at $78.20, as the shares continue their northward trek atop long-term support from their 80-week moving average. More recently, the java name has been in rally mode, up 10.5% since touching a mid-October low of $70.77. Nevertheless, traders at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX have been rolling the dice on downside for Starbucks Corporation. The equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio across those three exchanges checks in at 0.74, in the 79th annual percentile. An unwinding of these bearish bets could result in tailwinds for SBUX. Meanwhile, those hoping to use options to gamble on the security's near-term trajectory are in luck. SBUX's SVI of 17% is lower than 78% of comparable readings from the past 12 months, suggesting short-term contracts can be had at a relative bargain.

  • Finally, TSL finished flat yesterday at $10.50, and remains 23.2% lower year-to-date. Looking ahead, the company is scheduled to report earnings before the open next Monday. The stock tends to make wild swings in the aftermath of these quarterly events, shedding 8% in the session following its August release, and gaining nearly 31% in May. Ahead of this report, traders have been wagering on losses for Trina Solar Limited (ADR). The security's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.83 rests above 94% of similar readings from the previous 52 weeks. On a related note, TSL's SVI of 72% sits in the 41st percentile of its annual range, suggesting short-term options are slightly less expensive than usual, from a volatility perspective.
Published on Nov 20, 2014 at 2:41 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) is up 3.7% this afternoon, after last night announcing restructuring measures that will cost up to $25 million. At last check, the stock was sitting at $29.12. Meanwhile, activity in the options pits is running fast and furious -- especially on the call side, where intraday volume more than doubles the expected amount.

Getting into the details, the three most active options are the January 2015 29- and 32-strike calls, and the 27-strike put. It appears a bullish spread totaling 7,000 contracts is being opened at the two call strikes, while a number of puts are being sold to open to help finance the spread. In other words, the trader expects SPWR to rally up to $32 over the next two months.

Taking a step back, it's been a tough year for SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR). Even after today's gains, the shares are in negative year-to-date territory, and have underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by almost 28 percentage points during the past three months. As a result, traders at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have been upping the bearish ante in recent weeks.

Published on Nov 20, 2014 at 1:23 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below are the names that have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Those highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), where traders are rolling the dice on a short-term stumble.

Most Active Weekly Options Table

Tesla Motors Inc is in recovery mode today -- up 0.3% at $248.44 -- after slumping nearly 4% yesterday following a pair of mixed analyst notes from Morgan Stanley. Today's rebound comes after Global Equities Research waxed optimistic on the electric car concern, saying the stock's recent pullback has created a buying opportunity. Additionally, the brokerage firm reiterated its "overweight" rating and $385 price target -- territory yet to be charted by the shares.

In the options pits, calls and puts are trading neck and neck this afternoon, with roughly 26,000 contracts seen on either side of the aisle. Most active is TSLA's November 250 call, which is seeing a mix of buying and selling activity ahead of tomorrow night's front-month expiration. Meanwhile, on the put side, the stock's weekly 11/28 245 strike has received the most attention, with 3,424 contracts on the tape.

A healthy portion of these puts have traded at the ask price and volume outstrips open interest, suggesting some of today's activity is of the buy-to-open kind. Traders' profit will accumulate on a move south of breakeven at $241.90 (strike less the volume-weighted average price of $3.10), while losses are limited to the initial cash outlay, should TSLA settle north of the strike at next Friday's 1:00 p.m. ET close, when the series expires.

From a wider sentiment perspective, long puts have been preferred over calls. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.93 ranks just 9 percentage points from an annual bearish peak. Good news for these put buyers -- as my colleague Alex Eppstein noted yesterday -- Tesla Motors Inc's (NASDAQ:TSLA) short-term options are relatively inexpensive at the moment.

Published on Nov 20, 2014 at 12:56 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Option traders have taken a shine to Internet titan Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO), wireless provider T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS), and yoga apparel maker Lululemon Athletica inc. (NASDAQ:LULU). Here's a look at how speculators have been placing their bets on YHOO, TMUS, and LULU.

  • Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) is 2.7% higher at $51.96 -- not far from another 14-year high -- on news the company ousted Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) as the default search engine for Mozilla's Firefox, breaking up a 10-year partnership. CEO Marissa Mayer said the five-year deal -- which kicks off next month -- should help YHOO gain search market share. In addition, YHOO may be getting an added lift from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) -- of which YHOO owns a stake -- on solid demand for the Chinese e-commerce concern's inaugural bond sale. Against this backdrop, YHOO calls are trading at a 50% mark-up to the average intraday pace, and the stock's 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) has jumped 4.2%, reflecting an affinity for short-term contracts. Digging deeper, it looks like traders are buying to open the November 52 and 53 calls, hoping YHOO extends today's rally north of these strikes by tomorrow's close, when front-month options expire.

  • T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS) is 1.6% higher at $27.89, after Deutsche Telekom -- TMUS' majority owner -- CEO Timotheus Hoettges waxed optimistic on the prospects of attracting another suitor. In mid-October, TMUS tumbled into annual-low territory south of $25, after France's Iliad jilted the U.S. carrier. In options land, TMUS calls are trading at nine times the typical intraday rate, and have outnumbered puts by a margin of more than 23-to-1. Most of the action transpired at the out-of-the-money February 30 call, where two blocks totaling 4,350 contracts traded around the same time this morning. Both crossed on the ask side, and volume exceeds open interest at the strike, hinting at newly bought bullish bets. By purchasing the calls to open, the buyers expect TMUS to climb north of $30 -- in territory not charted since mid-September -- by the close on Friday, Feb. 20, when the options expire.

  • Finally, Lululemon Athletica inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) is up 2.6% to $46.78 on no apparent news. The equity has tacked on nearly 4% so far this week, and is on pace for its loftiest settlement since late April. In the options arena, it looks like some bulls are taking profits in the wake of LULU's run higher. Intraday call volume is running at twice the average rate, with potential sell-to-close action detected at the in-the-money December 42.50 call -- the most active contract thus far. Plenty more bulls could liquidate their winning positions, too; the security's 10-day call/put volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits at 3.67 -- just 8 percentage points from an annual peak.
Published on Nov 20, 2014 at 10:30 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Caesars Entertainment Corp (NASDAQ:CZR) has spiked more than 12% out of the gate, following news of an $18.4 billion restructuring plan. This comes just a day after the stock fell 6.2%. Also on Wednesday, calls traded at roughly 1.3 times the expected rate, with plenty of speculators initiating positions.

CZR's two most active strikes yesterday were the November 13.50 put and 14.50 call. The vast majority of the contracts crossed at the ask price, and nearly all of them translated into open interest overnight, making it safe to assume the bets were bought to open.

Today's massive rally -- which has CZR sitting at $16.17 -- is bad news for the put traders, and good news for the call buyers. The former group anticipated the shares would breach $13.50 by week's end, when the front-month contracts expire -- a prospect that's looking increasingly unlikely.

By contrast, the call buyers appear to be in great shape. Delta on the now in-the-money contract has spiked to 0.71 from 0.48 at last night's closing, suggesting a 71% chance the call will be in the money at tomorrow's close. What's more, these speculators paid a volume-weighted average price of $0.55 for their bets, and the bid price on the call is now $1.45 -- indicating paper profits are on the table for those that want to close out their positions today.

As alluded to, Caesars Entertainment Corp (NASDAQ:CZR) announced a major restructuring effort last night, as the firm attempts to prepare for its impending bankruptcy filing. If the plan takes effect, the company's biggest unit -- Caesars Entertainment Operating Co. -- would convert into a real estate investment trust (REIT).

Published on Nov 20, 2014 at 10:30 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is financial firm Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), where option bulls are beginning to climb on board.

Most Active Options Table

Option bears have targeted Bank of America Corp in recent months, as evidenced by the stock's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.28, which ranks in the 96th percentile of its annual range. Simply stated, puts have been bought to open over calls at a faster pace just 4% of the time within the past year.

Today, however, it's call players that have set their sights on the banking giant. Specifically, calls are trading at 1.5 times what's typically seen at this point in the day, and are outpacing puts by a 4-to-1 margin. What's more, traders are showing a preference for short-term contracts, per the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV), which is up 3.5% to 16.8%.

Most active by a mile is BAC's November 17 call, where 19,316 contracts have changed hands. The majority of these have gone off on the ask side, and IV has surged 7.2 percentage points, hinting at the possibility new positions are being purchased. Data from the ISE confirms that at least a portion of this morning's activity is of the buy-to-open kind. Profit for today's traders is theoretically unlimited to the upside, while losses are capped at the initial cash outlay, should BAC settle south of the strike at tomorrow's close, when the front-month contracts expire.

On the charts, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) has been in rally mode since taking a sharp bounce off its 120-day moving average in mid-October, with the shares up 10% to trade at $16.98. Should the equity continue to make headway, a further shift in sentiment among option traders could help propel the shares higher.

Published on Nov 20, 2014 at 8:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are semiconductor stocks Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) and Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRVL), as well as streaming content provider Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI). Below, we'll break down how options buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on AMD, MRVL, and SIRI.

  • AMD lost 0.8% yesterday to close at $2.63, bringing its year-to-date deficit to 32%. Nevertheless, traders at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open more than 34 calls for every put during the past two weeks. The resultant call/put volume ratio of 34.26 ranks in the 94th percentile of its annual range, suggesting a healthier-than-usual appetite for bullish bets over bearish -- a dramatic shift from how speculators were wagering a month ago. However, some of these positions may have been at hands of short sellers hedging against unexpected upside, as 22.2% of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s float is sold short. At the stock's typical daily trading levels, this would take more than a week to buy back. Regardless of the motive, short-term AMD options are relatively affordable right now, as the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 44% sits below 81% of comparable readings from the previous year.

  • MRVL, which is scheduled to step into the earnings confessional tonight, lost 0.8% yesterday to land at $13.37. Longer term, the shares are down 7% in 2014, and have underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) during the last couple of months. Accordingly, Marvell Technology Group Ltd. has racked up a 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.38, which ranks in the 71st percentile of its 12-month range. In other words, speculators have been buying to open puts over calls at an accelerate rate in recent weeks. Meanwhile, MRVL's SVI of 34% stands above just 36% of similar readings from the past year, suggesting short-term contracts are relatively inexpensive at present, even with earnings around the bend.

  • Finally, SIRI dropped 1.1% on Wednesday to close at $3.52, and is only slightly above breakeven on a year-to-date basis. However, in recent weeks, the shares have rallied -- specifically, since touching an October low of $3.14, the stock is up 12.1%. That said, traders at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX remain unconvinced. Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.47 sits above 85% of like readings from the previous 12 months -- though it's possible a portion of these bets were initiated by shareholders bracing against potential downside. In any case, short-term SIRI options can be had at a relative bargain right now, as the equity's SVI of 20% is lower than 91% of other such readings from the past year.
Published on Nov 19, 2014 at 2:38 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Mondelez International Inc (NASDAQ:MDLZ) is up 1.2% this afternoon at $39.15, bringing its year-to-date advance close to 11%. Meanwhile, options activity is sizzling, with calls trading at more than five times the usual intraday clip. What's more, the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has jumped 23.8% to 19.9%, signaling elevated demand for short-term contracts.

Diving right in, the most active MDLZ strike is the near-the-money December 40 call, where, more than 11,800 contracts have changed hands. Roughly 70% have done so at the ask price, and volume outweighs open interest, pointing to buy-to-open activity. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Trade-Alert confirms this theory.

In other words, the buyers expect MDLZ to topple $40 by the close on Friday, Dec. 19, when the soon-to-be front-month options expire. This would put the shares in all-time-high territory.

Today's preference for long Mondelez International Inc (NASDAQ:MDLZ) calls over puts is business as usual, according to information from the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Over the past 10 days, the stock has racked up a call/put volume ratio of 4.27 across these three exchanges -- outstripping more than three-quarters of comparable readings from the last year.

Published on Nov 19, 2014 at 2:21 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is China-based e-commerce firm and arguable market darling Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), which continues to attract short-term option bulls.

Most Active Options Table

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 0.6% lower at $110.15, bringing its week-to-date loss to 4.3%. Nevertheless, intraday call volume is running at twice the average pace, with roughly 220,000 contracts traded -- more than double the number of BABA puts exchanged.

The equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) has edged 3.9% higher, hinting at elevated demand for short-term contracts. Lo and behold, the most active option thus far is the at-the-money November 110 call, with close to 19,000 contracts traded.

A healthy portion of the calls crossed on the ask side, IV is rising, and volume exceeds current open interest, pointing to newly bought bullish bets. This theory is at least partially confirmed by data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE).

By buying the calls at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $1.21, the buyers will profit if BABA climbs back atop $111.21 (strike plus VWAP) by Friday's close, when front-month options expire. Profit potential is theoretically unlimited north of breakeven, while risk is capped at the initial premium paid for the contracts.

As Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) ticks lower, delta on the call has dropped to 0.51 from 0.58 at yesterday's close, pointing to reduced odds of an in-the-money expiration. Although BABA has added roughly 19% since its public debut on Sept. 19, the stock has shed 8.2% since peaking at $120 last Thursday, and is on pace to finish a second straight session beneath its 10-day moving average.

Published on Nov 19, 2014 at 1:58 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below are the names that have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Those highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), where sentiment continues to shift to the bullish side.

Most Active Weekly Options Table

Microsoft Corporation option traders have been initiating long puts over calls at an accelerated clip in recent months, per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Specifically, the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.79 across this trio of exchanges sits higher than 89% of similar readings taken in the past year.

Recently, though, option traders have begun to switch sides -- a trend that's evident today, with calls crossing the tape at 1.3 times the average intraday pace. Receiving notable attention is MSFT's weekly 12/5 48-strike call, as it appears a number of speculators are betting on the stock to resume its long-term uptrend over the next several weeks.

Specifically, 2,135 contracts have changed hands here -- 96% at the ask price, signaling buyer-driven volume. Implied volatility has edged higher, and fewer than 550 contracts are in residence, making it safe to assume a fresh batch of bullish bets is being initiated. With the stock currently perched just north of the strike -- at $48.16 -- delta on the call is docked at 0.54, suggesting a greater than 1-in-2 chance the option will be in the money at the close on Friday, Dec. 5 -- when the weekly series expires.

As touched upon, MSFT has been a long-term outperformer, with the shares boasting an impressive 29% year-to-date gain. Meanwhile, although the equity is 1.2% lower today amid a broad-market downturn, it's finding a foothold near $48, which is site to a heavy accumulation of put open interest in the soon-to-expire November series of options. This area could continue to serve as support through Friday's close, as the hedges related to these bets unwind ahead of expiration.

On the fundamental front, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) scored a legal victory today when a judge denied Samsung's request to delay a patent royalty lawsuit. Drilling down, MSFT alleges Samsung owes it roughly $7 million in interest on a late patent royalty payment of $1 billion, while Samsung claims the deal was nullified with MSFT's purchase of Nokia Corporation's (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) handset business.

Published on Nov 19, 2014 at 12:33 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Option traders have taken a shine to GPS maker Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRMN), fertilizer firm Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS), and commodities concern Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX). Here's a look at how speculators have been placing their bets on GRMN, MOS, and ABX.

  • Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRMN) is 2.6% higher at $58.11, amid swirling takeover rumors. Against this backdrop, GRMN calls are trading at 16 times the average intraday pace, and have outnumbered puts by a margin of more than 20-to-1. Furthermore, the equity's 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) has popped 12.2% to 25.6%, reflecting the surging demand for short-term contracts. In fact, the soon-to-expire November 57.50 call is most active, with more than 2,600 contracts exchanged. It appears traders are buying the calls to open, hoping GRMN extends today's journey north of $57.50 through the end of the week, when front-month options expire.

  • Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) is once again enjoying a sector-wide rally, as potash producers climb on a Russian rival's production halt. Like peer Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (NYSE:POT), MOS has felt the analyst love today. Susquehanna upped its opinion to "positive" from "neutral" and lifted its price target to $58 from $50, while Canaccord Genuity hiked its price target to $48 from $45 (but maintained a "hold" rating). For the second straight session, MOS calls are flying off the shelves, trading at 10 times the average intraday rate. The security's 30-day ATM IV is up 11.1% at 22.6%, with buy-to-open activity detected at the November 47.50 and January 2015 50-strike calls. At last check, MOS has added 2.4% to flirt with $47.88, bringing its week-to-date gain to 6%.

  • Finally, Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) is down 4.2% at $12.74, after the firm said it's replacing Chief Financial Officer Ammar Al-Joundi -- the company's second major executive departure in as many months. In the options pits, ABX puts are trading at twice the typical intraday rate, and the stock's 30-day ATM IV has edged 5.4% higher to 45.8%. Upon closer inspection, it looks like traders are buying to open the November 12.50 put, expecting ABX to breach the strike by the end of the week, when the options expire.
Published on Apr 15, 2015 at 2:56 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Put players have been active in Freeport-McMoRan Inc's (NYSE:FCX) options pits in recent months. In fact, FCX's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.99 ranks in the 92nd annual percentile. Simply stated, puts have been bought to open over calls at a faster clip just 8% of the time within the past year.

In today's session, puts are trading at two times what's typically seen at this point in the day. The stock's August 16 put has seen the most action, and according to Trade-Alert, a portion of this activity is of the buy-to-open kind. By initiating the long puts, speculators are betting on FCX to breach $16 by the close on Friday, Aug. 21, when the series expires -- territory not charted since March 2009.

Technically speaking, FCX has been in a steady downtrend since topping out at an annual high of $39.32 last July, off 47%. However, the shares have been in rally mode this week up 15% -- including a 10% pop today -- to trade at $20.99. Regardless of where FCX settles at August options expiration, though, the most today's put buyers stand to lose is the premium paid.

Outside of the option pits, sentiment among the brokerage bunch is mixed, although Monday's upgrade to "buy" from "neutral" and price-target hike to $23 from $19 at Citigroup -- which also weighed in on sector peer Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF) -- could suggest opinions are shifting. Specifically, eight analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating on FCX, versus seven "holds" or worse. Meanwhile, on the fundamental front, Atlantic Copper -- Freeport-McMoRan Inc's (NYSE:FCX) smelter in Spain -- said it will produce less copper this year due to previously scheduled maintenance.

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