Seasonality data shows TJX tends to underperform during Memorial Day week, while LULU has historically outperformed
Retail stocks are in focus heading into Memorial Day week, and two names stand out for very different reasons. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, TJX Companies Inc (NYSE:TJX) has historically underperformed during this holiday-shortened stretch, while Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ:LULU) tends to shine.
TJX’s Seasonal Slump Has Already Begun
TJX stock is already feeling the heat. Shares of the parent company behind T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods were last seen down 2.4% at $131.75, despite reporting better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue, and reaffirming its fiscal 2026 guidance.
That pullback could deepen. White’s data shows that TJX has finished Memorial Day week higher just three times in the past 10 years, averaging a 1% decline. A similar move this year would place the stock just above $130 -- a notable retreat from yesterday’s record high of $135.85. The equity has still managed an 8.8% gain in 2025, but that cushion may continue to shrink.
LULU Could Stretch Higher if History Repeats
Lululemon stock, by contrast, is flashing seasonal strength. The equity was last seen 0.5% lower at $325.64, on pace to snap a seven-day winning streak. Still, it’s hovering near its year-over-year breakeven point and stands to erase a chunk of its 14.7% year-to-date deficit if history is any indicator.
LULU is one of the top five Memorial Day week performers among S&P 500 stocks. Over the past decade, it has finished the week higher eight out of 10 times, with an average gain of 4.8%. A repeat performance would push the stock to $341.27 -- territory not seen since late March.