SPX performance heading into Memorial Day could set the tone for the rest of 2025
Next Monday is Memorial Day, a time to honor the brave men and women who gave their lives in military service. For many Americans, it also marks the unofficial start of summer, with parades, cookouts, and long weekend plans.
For the stock market, it means a shortened, four-day trading week — but does it mean more than that? In this week’s article, I'll examine the historical data to find out. I’ll also highlight which stocks tended to perform well — and not so well — during the Memorial Day trading week.
Memorial Day Week Seasonality
Memorial Day officially became the last Monday of May in 1971. Since then, the week that followed has been bullish for stocks, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) averaging a 0.5% gain. That outpaces the typical weekly return of 0.17% in the same time frame.
However, more recently, things have taken a bearish turn. Since 2010, the index has averaged a 0.39% loss during Memorial Day week, with fewer than half of the returns positive. While the broader market has generally been strong in this period, Memorial Day week has been a clear exception.
Day-By-Day
Let’s dig into where things may have gone wrong. The table below summarizes SPX performance during Memorial Day week since 2010 — including the Friday before the holiday, which has historically been quite bullish.
Since then, every day except Thursday has averaged a loss, with less than half of the returns positive. Friday has been the worst, averaging a 0.46% decline over the past 15 years. Thursday stands out as the lone bright spot, averaging a gain of 0.20%, with 53% of returns positive.
What's Next?
The SPX's year-to-date performance heading into Memorial Day has historically set the tone for the rest of the year. With the index currently up about 1% in 2025, we fall into the “middle” range — defined as between +5% and -5% year to date. When the SPX is in this range heading into the holiday, it has averaged a 5% gain for the rest of the year, with 70% of the returns positive.
However, if we rally into the weekend and push above the +5% year-to-date mark, the outlook improves. In those instances, the SPX averaged a 7.8% gain for the remainder of the year, with 83% of returns positive. On the other hand, if the market drops hard and enters Memorial Day more than 5% lower on the year, forward returns turn negative. In those cases, the index averaged a 3.5% loss, with just 30% of returns finishing in the green.
Individual Stocks
As promised, below are the SPX stocks that have done the best and worst in the past 10 years during Memorial Day week. American Tower (AMT) and Electronic Arts (EA) have been positive nine of ten times during the holiday week. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are prominent on the bullish stocks list as well.
Finally, here’s the list of stocks that have underperformed for the week of Memorial Day. Avoiding bank stocks and brokerages has been prudent in the past 10 years during the holiday week.
