Cosmetics Name Steps Up to Earnings Plate

The stock has a history of volatile post-earnings moves

Deputy Editor
May 8, 2020 at 3:06 PM
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The shares of cosmetics concern Coty Inc (NYSE:COTY) are up 4.3% today, last seen trading at $5.14, ahead of the company's first-quarter earnings report, due out before the open on Monday, May 11. Below, we'll take a more in depth look at the company's earnings history, and why it's all up in the air for COTY.

On the charts, since a February 5 bull gap lifted the equity to its annual high of $13.01, COTY has carved out a channel of lower lows. Now down 60% from that mark, Coty stock staring up at its 40-day moving average, a trendline that -- aside from one instance in late April -- its failed to close above since Feb 24.

COTY Chart May 8

Looking back at the past two years, the stock has a varied post-earnings history . Of the eight previous reports, there's four have been positive, including a 14.5% upward swing in February, a 32.2% pop in February 2019, and a 22.5 drop in November 2018. The security averages a 13.4% swing, regardless of direction, the day after its last eight reports.

In the options pits, COTY sports 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.54 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio that sits higher than all but 2% of all other readings from the past 12 months, suggesting the appetite for long calls has been extremely healthy in the last 10 weeks. 

Although earnings loom, options are affordably priced at the moment, from a volatility perspective. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 132% registers in the 17th percentile of its 12-month range, meaning short-term IVs have priced in lower volatility expectations only 10% of the time in the last year.

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