Dollar Tree Rally Could Have Legs, Says Signal

DLTR just notched a new high, extending yesterday's post-earnings rally

Deputy Editor
Mar 7, 2019 at 3:14 PM
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The shares of Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) jumped over 5% during yesterday's trading, after the discount retailer reported earnings and revenue fourth quarter that exceeded analysts' expectations. The earnings beat had analysts rushing to raise their price targets, including RBC and Credit Suisse. Today, the trend continues, with price-target hikes from Jefferies (to $94), Morgan Stanley (to $92), Guggenheim (to $110), and BMO (to $105). As a result, the equity is enjoying its third straight day of gains, and earlier touched a new annual high of $103.51. What's more, additional upside could be in store, if recent history is any indicator.

DLTR is up 2% at $102.38, at last check. The equity just pulled back to within one standard deviation of its 320-day moving average, after an extended period above the trendline. Dollar Tree stock experienced similar pullbacks four other times in the past three years, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. The stock was higher one month later 67% of the time, averaging a 7.7% gain. From where the stock currently stands, a similar move would put it right above the $110 area for the first time in over a year.

DLTR CHart March 7

Looking at options activity today, traders have been ramping up their bullish bets, with about 6,000 calls crossing the tape -- roughly two times the average intraday pace. It looks like most action is transpiring around the weekly 3/8 102- and 100-strike calls, with short-term buyers hoping DLTR extends its rally through tomorrow's close, when the options expire. 

In light of Dollar Tree's post-earnings volatility crush, short-term option premiums are relatively cheap. The stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 21.4% is at the bottom of its annual range. This means now might be a good time to speculate with near-term-options


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