25 Stocks That Could Struggle Next Month

CF stock could backpedal in March, if past is prologue

by Andrea Kramer

Published on Feb 26, 2019 at 1:01 PM

On Monday, we took a look at the 25 best stocks to own in March, historically. Today, we're shifting gears to analyze the 25 worst stocks for next month. At the top of the list is fertilizer manufacturer CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF), which is also flashing a bearish technical signal on the charts.

Below are the worst S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks to own in the month of March, looking back 10 years. The list -- cultivated by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White -- considers only SPX stocks with at least eight years' worth of historical returns.

worst march stocks

CF stock has ended March higher just 20% of the time, marking the worst win rate of all eligible SPX stocks. What's more, the security has racked up the steepest average monthly loss of 4.64%.

Since gapping lower in mid-November, the shares of CF Industries have been range-bound, with support emerging in the $40-$42 region. The equity has struggled to surmount the $45-$46 area -- where the stock landed after the aforementioned gap, and home to its 200-day moving average.

What's more, CF is now within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch below this trendline. According to White, there have been seven similar signals, after which the stock averaged a one-month loss of 4.77%. From its current price of $43.29, a similar pullback would put CF stock back testing recent support.

CF stock chart feb 26

Recent option buyers have been upping the bearish ante, at least. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), CF sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 2.25 -- in the 95th percentile of its annual range. This indicates a healthier-than-usual appetite for long CF puts over calls in the past 10 weeks.

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