Tech Stock Looking to Tumble Further

IBM has slipped below several long-term moving averages

Nov 16, 2021 at 2:14 PM
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Though tech name IBM (NYSE:IBM), otherwise known as International Business Machines Corporation, recently bounced off its year-to-date breakeven, the blue-chip stock is now back below that area. The equity has been underperforming the broader market of late, logging a series of lower lows and lower highs, while slipping under multiple long-term moving averages, including the 1,000-day. The security has also dipped below the $125-$128 area, which defined multiple 2020 peaks, as well as its 1999 high around the $130 mark, above which April-October buyers were trapped ahead of its latest post-earnings bear gap. With this in mind, we are recommending a new short position on IBM.

ibm wt repost

A sentiment shift in the options could pressure the security even lower over the coming weeks. This is according to IBM’s 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.96 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which sits higher than 74% of readings from the past year. In other words, calls have been getting picked up at a much faster-than-usual clip, and now make up the top four open interest positions on the name.
Meanwhile, short sellers have been gradually piling on the security since May. Over the most recent reporting period alone, short interest rose 7.6%, bringing up the amount of shares sold short to 27.43 million. What’s more, these shorts have been proven correct, which could encourage others to take their lead.

For those wanting to speculate on IBM’s next move, options look like a solid choice. The security’s Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 19% stands higher than just 23% of readings from the last 12 months, indicating options players are pricing in low volatility expectations at the moment. It is also worth noting IBM has exceeded options traders' volatility expectations in the past year, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS), which sits at 67 out of a possible 100.

Our recommended put option has a leverage ratio of -7.3, and will double in value on a 11.6% drop in the underlying equity.


Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this IBM commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.


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