Rallying Retail Stock Pricing In Cheap Options

A historically bullish signal could send SPWH even higher

Deputy Editor
Jun 29, 2020 at 2:27 PM
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Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:SPWH) nearly brushed its June 23, four-year high of $14.67 earlier today, surging toward the $14.43 mark before falling back below its breakeven. At last check, SPWH is down 3.5% at $13.44. Bulls shouldn't fret just yet, though. The stock still sports a three-month lead of 115.9%, and its recent peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV) -- a combination that has meant more upside for the stock in the past.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have been three other times in the past five years when the stock was trading within 2% of its 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) sat in the 20th annual range or lower -- as is the case with SPWH's current SVI of 84%, which sits in the 14th percentile of its 12-month range. This also suggests that options players are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. 

The data shows that one month after two of these signals, the sports retailer was higher, averaging a one-month return of 15.2%. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put the stock around $15.48, just a chip shot away from last week's peak. Adding to this, support at its 20-day moving average has acted as a reliable net for pullbacks since March. 

SPWH July 29

Despite this impressive price action, short interest rose 6.1% during the last reporting period. These 4.84 million shares sold short now account for 11.5% of the stock's available float and would take five and a half days to cover at the equity's average pace of trading. Should some of these bearish bets begin to unwind, a short squeeze could drive the stock even higher, too.   




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