Gap Puts Pop As Earnings Loom

Gap reports second-quarter earnings after the close tomorrow

by Patrick Martin

Published on Aug 21, 2019 at 12:57 PM

It's been a rough stretch for the retail sector, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) logging a 25.4% year-over-year deficit, last seen at $39.16. Plus, looking at an internal scorecard compiled by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, only 34% of the 85 stocks we track under the "general retailers" umbrella were above their 80-day moving average heading into today.

However, blowout corporate reports from the likes of Target (TGT) and Lowe's (LOW) have lifted retail stocks across the board today. Looking to keep this momentum going will be Gap Inc (NYSE:GPS), with the retailer ready to step into the earnings confessional tomorrow.

Daily ETF Chart XRT

Gap will report second-quarter earnings after the close tomorrow, Aug. 22. Looking at its earnings history, the stock has closed lower the day after earnings in four of the past eight quarters, including a 9.3% drop in May. Over the past two years, the shares have swung an average of 8.5% the day after earnings, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a much larger-than-usual 17.8% swing for Friday's trading. 

As far as options, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 4.71 ranks in the 98th percentile of its annual range. Not only does this show that put open interest heavily outweighs call open interest among options expiring within three months, but such a put-skew among near-term traders is very rare. Underscoring this is GPS' total put open interest of 148,812 contracts, an annual high. 

Shifting gears to today, puts remain popular. At last check, almost 9,400 puts have crossed the tape, three times the average intraday amount. Leading the charge is the weekly 8/23 15.50-strike put, where new positions are being opened.

Given GPS' current perch at $16.80 -- up 3.9% thanks to today's halo lift -- buyers of these puts expect a sharp pullback from the stock by the time the options expire this Friday. Sellers, meanwhile, either expect $15.50 to serve as a short-term foothold, or are looking to profit on a post-earnings volatility crush.

On the charts, Gap stock nabbed a nearly eight-year low of $15.22 on Aug. 15. Year-to-date, the shares are down almost 35%, with breakouts thwarted by their descending 60-day moving average. As such, there isn't much optimism to be found around the security; the majority of analysts rate it a "hold" or worse, and 13.5% of its total available float is sold short.

Daily Stock Chart GPS


A Schaeffer's exclusive

TOP STOCK PICKS 2020

Access your FREE insider report before it's too late!


 
 

Partnercenter


NEW! Explore Schaeffer’s Partners' deals and get connected to top online brokerages with deals tailored exclusively for our readers.  Get answers to your questions regarding transfer fees, commission rates, programs and available discounts related to online trading services.

MORE | MARKETstories


Former Hedge Fund Manager Makes $25,000 "Trading Breakthrough"
Click to continue to advertiser's site.
Dow Cools as Coronavirus Outbreak Takes Grasp of Markets
The Nasdaq is about to snap a six-week win streak
Copper Stock Picks Up Bear Notes After Earnings
FCX gapped lower yesterday after earnings
Former Hedge Fund Manager Makes $25,000 "Trading Breakthrough"
Click to continue to advertiser's site.