Perfect Cruise Stock Pick for Bears

The 40-day moving average is pressuring CCL shares

Aug 13, 2019 at 9:27 AM
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Cruise line Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) has been wildly underperforming on the charts. The stock has shed 22% over the past 12 months, and is continuing to see pressure from its historically bearish declining 40-day moving average. With a large block of puts expiring this week at the underfoot 45 strike, removing a potential layer of options-related support, now seems to be an opportune time to jump onto CCL’s next leg lower.

WKALT CCL Chart

Short interest has been on the rise since mid-April on Carnival stock, while the shares have simultaneously slid around 15%. This negative price action could embolden more shorts to pile on, and the resulting selling pressure could be a hindrance for CCL.

There is still room for downgrades and price-target cuts on the equity. Specifically, five covering analysts still sport a "strong buy" recommendation, while the stock’s average 12-month price target sits at a lofty $55.94.

Finally, option premiums look attractive on CCL at the moment, based on its Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 24%, which ranks in the 25th percentile of its annual range. Our recommended put has a leverage ratio of negative 5.7, and will double in value on a 14.7% decline in the underlying security.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this CCL commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

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