Low Expectations Could Create Tailwinds for Outperforming Eaton Stock

ETN continues to fly higher in the face of selling pressure from shorts

Jan 3, 2018 at 10:56 AM

Power management provider Eaton Corporation (NYSE:ETN) recently announced that it expects to incur a one-time expense between $90 and $110 million as a result of the new tax bill. The guidance was well-received, with ETN stock gapping higher on Friday.

From a longer-term perspective, the shares surged an impressive 17.7% in 2017, and their recent low near $75 represents five times the 2009 low. What's more, ETN has been consolidating into its 12-month moving average, situated in the $76 area, and its 2014 monthly closing high. With multiple layers of support underneath, now looks like an opportune time to get in on Eaton's longer-term rally.

Monthly Chart of ETN Since Jan 2016 with12 MA

Even more impressive, ETN has been rallying in the face of low expectations. The majority of analysts covering the stock maintain "hold" or worse opinions, suggesting future upgrades could lure more buyers to the table. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is higher than 89% of all other readings from the past year, suggesting near-term options traders are more put-heavy than usual, to boot.

Plus, short interest has nearly doubled since October, with minimal impact on the stock. These bearish bets are now flirting with multi-year highs, and would take nearly four sessions to buy back, at ETN's average trading volume -- ample fuel for a potential short squeeze.

It's an ideal time to buy premium on ETN, too. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 15% is higher than just 5% of all other readings from the past 12 months, indicating short-term options are pricing in exceptionally low volatility expectations. Our recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 9.5, and will double in value on just a 9.9% gain for ETN.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader Alert options recommendation service received this ETN commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

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