Buy Premium on This Footwear Stock

A round of upgrades could keep the wind at DECK's back

Dec 27, 2017 at 9:43 AM
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Footwear stock Deckers Outdoor Corp (NYSE:DECK) has vaulted to a gain of 43% year-to-date, roughly doubling the percentage gain of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) over this same time frame. That stock recently muscled above the $78 level, which had previously marked DECK's highs since a big bear gap in early 2015. With this technical hurdle in the rearview, the next major zone of resistance for DECK is as far north as $100 -- and our recommended call option will reach its target profit comfortably below the century level.

deck daily chart dec 22

With DECK hovering near multi-year highs, shorts are feeling the pressure. Short interest accounts for 16.5% of the equity's float, representing a 72% surge from mid-August levels -- even as the shares have added about 23% in the intervening weeks. At DECK's average daily volume, it would take nearly eight sessions for all of these bearish bets to be covered, leaving the stock well-positioned to benefit from a capitulation among the bears.

Analysts could also give DECK a lift. Almost three-quarters of the brokerage firms following the stock maintain a "hold" or "sell" rating, leaving plenty of room for upgrades. Price-target cuts are also probable, as the average 12-month target among analysts is $74.77 -- several points below DECK's current price. A round of bullish notes could shake loose some shorts, and draw new buyers to the table.

It's an ideal time to buy premium on DECK, too. The equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 30.3% is less than one percentage point from June's 52-week low, as short-term options are pricing in exceptionally low volatility expectations.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader Alert options recommendation service received this DECK commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

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