The database software company issued weak guidance for fiscal 2026
Shares of MongoDB Inc (NASDAQ:MDB) were last seen down 23.5% at $202.19, after the database software company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for fiscal 2026. While fourth-quarter adjusted earnings topped analyst expectations, the company’s outlook for the year ahead fell short, now projecting adjusted EPS between $2.44 and $2.62, well below the $3.38 per share analysts had forecasted. Revenue projections also missed expectations, with MongoDB guiding for $2.24 billion to $2.28 billion, under the $2.32 billion consensus estimate.
The stock is now trading at its lowest level since April 2023 and is on track for its biggest single-day percentage drop since May 2024. Year-to-date, MDB has shed 12%, while its 50% year-over-year decline reflects mounting pressure from short- and long-term moving averages.
In response, Keybanc downgraded the stock to "sector weight" from "overweight," while at least 16 analysts slashed their price targets, including Scotiabank to $240. More price target cuts and downgrades could follow, given that the 12-month average price target of $364.09 still represents an 80% premium to MongoDB's current level, and 27 analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating.
Options traders are also piling on, with 14,000 calls and 22,000 puts already exchanged -- 18 times the stock’s average daily options volume. The March 210 put is seeing the most activity, while new positions are opening at the June 170 put, signaling bearish sentiment in the near term.