Airline Stock Eyes 10th-Straight Win After Forecast Hike

AAL is trading at its highest level since June

Deputy Editor
Jan 12, 2023 at 11:00 AM
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American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) stock is up 4% to trade at $15.96 at last glance, after the company raised its fourth-quarter profit forecast due to strong holiday travel demand. Plus, airlines expect travel operations to return to normal today, as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) investigates the computer outage that caused the first national grounding of domestic travel in roughly two decades.  

Today's gains have AAL trading at its highest level since June, with the shares also breaking above their 320-day moving average for the first time since April. On track for its 10th-straight daily win, the stock is already up more than  27% since the start of the year.

It's also worth noting that American Airlines stock's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 81.7 sits in "overbought" territory, indicating a short-term drop could be on the way. 

There is still plenty of pessimism to be unwound amongst analysts and options traders, however. Of the 14 analysts in coverage, 13 carry a "hold" or worse rating. Plus, AAL's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 92% of readings from the past year. 

A shift appears to be occurring in the options pits already, as 80,000 calls have been exchanged in comparison to 78,000 puts so far today, with overall volume running at three times the intraday average. The January 2023 16.50- and 16-strike calls are the most popular, with new positions being opened at both. 

Meanwhile, there has been plenty of short covering over the past month. Even so, short interest represents 12.8% of the stock's available float. 


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