Analyst: Carvana Stock is "Grossly Undervalued"

Piper Sandler did note rising interest rates and sinking used car prices, however

Deputy Editor
Sep 12, 2022 at 10:15 AM
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The shares of Carvana Co (NYSE:CVNA) are surging today, last seen up 10.9% to trade at $40.61, after Piper Sandler called the online used-car dealer "undervalued" in a bull note. The broker upgraded CVNA to "overweight" from "neutral," but lowered its price target to $73 from $98. The analyst did note falling used vehicle prices and rising interest rates, but said that the company could face an "array of possible outcomes," with many implying substantial movement to the upside. 

There's room for more analysts to join Piper Sandler. Coming into today, 14 of the 23 covering brokerages called Carvana stock a "hold" or worse, against nine "buy" or better ratings. Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $57.21 is a 41.2% premium to current levels. 

Meanwhile, options traders haven't shied away from airing their bearish attitude. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.91, which stands higher than 86% of readings from the past year. In other words, puts have been much more popular than usual of late. 

Speculating on CVNA's next move with options could be the way to go. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 115% sits in the 33rd percentile of its annual range. This implies options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations for the security right now. Additionally, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 83 out of a possible 100. This means Carvana stock has tended to outperform said volatility expectations. 

Today's pop has CVNA trading back above its 100-day moving average for the first time since mid-August, when the equity briefly danced around this trendline before moving lower. The 80-day moving average captured some of this downside, though the security still sits 82.7% lower in 2022.


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