Analyst Bets on Rebound for Coupa Software Stock

The security sports a 58% year-over-year lead

Digital Content Manager
Apr 20, 2021 at 11:12 AM
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The shares of Coupa Software Inc (NASDAQ:COUP) have seen a dramatic selloff since hitting an all-time high of $377.04 in late February. However, though it briefly dipped below the 320-day moving average late last month, it looks like this trendline has moved in as a region of support. Plus, year-over-year, COUP sports a 58.2% lead. Though COUP is still struggling with overhead pressure at its $280 level, one analyst is considering this ceiling to be temporary, and is betting on Coupa stock's next leg higher.

Specifically, Piper Sandler just hiked its price target to $315 from $300, and lifted its rating to "overweight" from "neutral." The analyst cited a favorable risk-reward setup for the stock, and added that the company's billings growth has a chance of reaccelerating in the upcoming quarter, lifting its full-year 2022 and 2023 revenue estimates as well. The security is off 1.4% at $259.76, despite the bull note, though it looks like the 20-day moving average is keeping some of these losses in check. 

Most members of the brokerage bunch are optimistic on COUP. Of the 17 in coverage, 11 said "buy" or better coming into today, compared to six "hold" or worse ratings. Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $399.95 is a 30.1% premium to current levels. 

Option traders have also taken a bullish stance at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The security sports a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.41, which stands higher than 93% of readings from the past 12 months. This means calls have been picked up at a much quicker-than-usual clip during the past 10 weeks. 

Speculating on COUP with options could be the way to go. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 45% stands in the low 6th percentile of its annual range, implying these traders have been pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. 

Meanwhile, short interest has begun to fall, down 1.9% in the last two reporting periods. Still, a further unwinding of these bearish bets could induce a short-squeeze situation, as the 7.18 million shares sold short make up a hefty 11.6% of the stock's available float, and would take over a week to cover at COUP's average daily pace of trading. 


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